When does inventory pick up?

See UrbanDigs:

This is the active inventory chart. Notice the bump in July, and oddly, November.

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?t=Market+Trends&s1=Active

supposed to happen by now..its not.

Noah--why do you suppose that is? You'd think as the market continues to strengthen side-line sellers would be jumping in.

Noah did point out that transactions have increased.

Noah, What does the trader in you say about higher volume in an market where there is little increase in price and low interest in selling?

Myself I still don't know. It will still probably all come down to jobs and salaries. Some fiscal discipline wouldn't hurt in the long run either.

most likely b/c of below coupled with strong economic revival/stock market wealth effect.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/realestate/16cov.html

bram maybe the side-line sellers have already sold. 2010 was strong. AvUWS, prices have already significantly increased and any remaining sideline sellers are anticipating higher price points. So why would anyone sell now?

I would have bought in 2009 but credit was so tight I couldn't. Now there is no inventory. Investors/developers were laughed at. These inventory levels are the early ramifications of the credit crisis.

"So why would anyone sell now?"

Maybe because they need to move. Or because they lost their job and are struggling to stay afloat with payments. Or because they don't feel comfortable holding on to an asset class that has taken a major hit in the last few years. You know, stuff like that.

most employees are feeling more comfortable now. Job loss fear was in 2009.

bjw says >Or because they don't feel comfortable holding on to an asset class that has taken a major hit in the last few years. You know, stuff like that.<

no imo, greed quickly replaces fear.

Another rookie mistake... Yes, greed can replace fear, it just doesn't happen in the exact asset class that just cratered.

> Now there is no inventory
Also keep in mind, SteveF has been singing this "no inventory" and "buyers are stampeding" tune for 2 years, as the Manhattan market dropped further and further.

BTW, Noah's chart at max shows far more inventory now than before the crash.

and his "pending sales" chart, which I believe is the one he notes to show demand... is lower than before the crash.... and lower than last year.

But financial stupidity takes a few knocks on the head bf it really gets it. How many lumps do you have on your head Fsteve?

Let me count.
1) buying nyc re at peak.... Ouch.
2) selling stks in 2009 to buy more nyc .... Ouch
3) thinking all is well with nyc re Bc the 'regular' listings have not come as per daytrader urbandigs..... Double ouch.

Btw, a banker friend of mine in credit committee sees a double dip worse than the first one coming asap. . Flmaozzzzzz.

"most employees are feeling more comfortable now. Job loss fear was in 2009."

I might agree fear was higher back then, but it's still very real, and many people who were laid off have struggled to find a job or at least one that pays as much as they were earning before. That directly impacts ability to pay the bills.

"no imo, greed quickly replaces fear."

Agree to disagree, I guess. We're not even close to a place where greed can take hold. I'm sure it'll return, just not so soon.

"BTW, Noah's chart at max shows far more inventory now than before the crash."

True, but 1/1/08 inventory was unusually low. Click for the 2-year view and the picture changes dramatically. As urbandigs said above, inventory hasn't quite had the hockey stick trend you've been forecasting for years now.

w67, are you saying double dip in RE or stocks? If it is Manhattan, doesn't this dip need to end before we have another?

"But financial stupidity takes a few knocks on the head bf it really gets it. How many lumps do you have on your head Fsteve?"

Generally folks learn after a few lumps... unless there is brain damage.

I'm with SteveF. 2009 was the time to buy, and if you think otherwise, you aren't paying attention or you're in denial.

There is some junk in Harlem and other marginal areas dragging down the median, but the good stuff is $1000 a sq ft again.

At least.

I think SteveF has been right with the majority of his posts.

I think/hope you're being facetious.

^ what Noah said. Downtown, there's especially a problem in the $1MM - $1.5 MM space, where there's a lot of pent-up demand and well-priced inventory flies off the shelf as quickly as it gets put on.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

some of y'all are really just hilarious. it's nice to see the same exact conversations year after year.

Typically, the big bump is 3/21, especially for family-size apartments, although inventory starts to trickle after Super Bowl Sunday.

Less people that live in Manhattan are trading up. This was a significant part of the market during the boom. Most people I know are content to stay where they are for a while.

This is it!!!!

The money has been released onto the streets and any bonus baby who has been dreaming about dumping their gelt into RE is out this week finishing up their purchase. Soon, all that fleeing Arab money should be running into town to boost the market. Better hurry before the Mubaraks, Khadafys, Al-Khalifas, Salehs, el Fassis, and, Bouteflikas get here and buy up every last peice of real estate available.

Buy now of be priced out for ever!
In šāʾ Allāh

Leave out the Khadafys as the son confirmed, "We have a plan A, B, and C.
Plan A is to live and die in Libya, Plan B is to live and die in Libya, Plan C is to live and die in Libya."

...Classic

bjw, fair enough some good points. needsadvice thx. bjw, I may not agree with you but I will never run away from a civilized debate.

I'm the biggest bull here, so what? swe is the biggest bear, so what? Get over it, name calling is so childish and is just absurd. Remember...."It's all business Sonny, it's not personal". Those who resort to name calling are weak people who can't help making it personal. I will just ignore those who choose to participate in insults.

front porch- what are you seeing for quality studio market, or small 1 bed price range around 5-600k? Is that market the same at 1-1.5 in terms of quality flying off the shelf?

Thanks.

jstreet, that "quality studio" space is actually pretty sleepy and has been since late summer. I have a $479K studio at 3 Hanover -- which is always a "slow" building to sell because the market is generally mostly people who work down there -- and I get maybe a call a week. My boss has three studios in Chelsea Gardens at $399K, and the top-floor one just went into contract -- after six months.

The "cozy 1-BR" space I haven't really been watching, so I can't speak to it.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

sorry guys, swamped and tired. Ill look at this thread tomorrow and try to chime in