Excellent contracts and inventory charts @UD

Yup.

Love it, steveF.

I was reading UD updates, and the poor guy is running around like a chicken trying to get all his deals done.

Once the snow stopped everybody went out and bought.

Am i reading it correctly that it is down from Feb last year, so YoY is still negative? Is this good?

bhh..what is down? inventory?

YOY=year over year, fool, a complicated metric used with data to try to account for seasonality

both contracts signed and inventory are down YOY

thanks Wb ;)

Contracts signed is down by what 3 units?

This is what you point to?

And the result of inventory being down--BY 400-- is rising prices.

Demand/contracts signed is pretty close YOY, but inventory is WAY down.

hahaha 3 units.. you guys are pathetic and desperate. Let this fool post some more stuff in honor of you Wbottom..enjoy

um, needsadvice, 2/27/10 active 7424, 2/27/11 active 7,287

difference of 137, not 400.

5 straight months of declining inventory aboutready, did u notice that this Feb is the 1st time inventory didn't rise. Just tryin to help.

> you guys are pathetic and desperate

Steve, talking about yourself again?

Fsteve, did you notice how much higher inventory was to begin with this january? of course you didn't.

wow, steve IS stupid. he can't even read a chart. five straight months of declining inventory?

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?t=Market+Trends&s1=Active

aboutready...SPIN Queen!

Aboutready is more like the Queen Mum than the Spin Queen, what with her "grandmotherly experience"

oh, steve, what am i spinning? actual charts? is it spinning to note that your comment that there have been five months of declining inventory is incorrect?

have you yet admitted that prices decreased, ever? talk about spin. you should write for the local chapter of the NAR (except even they are more realistic than you are).

aboutready, steveF is telling you to spin the chart. Turn your monitor upside down, and then you'll understand the numbers the way he does. You just don't *understand*!

"oh, steve, what am i spinning? actual charts? is it spinning to note that your comment that there have been five months of declining inventory is incorrect?"

lol

my monitor is too big to turn upside down, but if i crane my neck just so and lean it on its side i kind of get what you're saying, AH.

There is a difference between:

1. Pace of Monthly Actives

and

2. Active Inventory

For #1 --> we simply look at the monthly total of new listings, newly actives and then an algorithm kicks in at the end of the month prior to publishing the tally to eliminate duplicates and data breaches where listings constantly switch from Active to Off-Mkt throughout the month.

For #2 --> we count how many REBNY exclusive listings are set to an ACTIVE state, and were updated at least once in the last 30 days by the broker, and have been on the market less than 2 yrs. This is after the general flow algorithm to account for data integrity issues with the RLS data

For this story today, I looked at #1, or the total new actives for February and how that changed since prior month and how it changed from same total in FEB 2010.

If you think about it, ACTIVE inventory is also subject to off-mkt trends and pending sales trends.

"Am i reading it correctly that it is down from Feb last year, so YoY is still negative? Is this good?"

Yes, the pace of new actives for Feb 2011 compared to Feb 2010 is down, but very slightly! Actually, less than 1%. Not significant. In fact, on multiple occasions I called the 2010 active season 'quite strong'...which is basically JAN-MAY or so. If we can keep on pace with 2010, that would be quite a strong signal.

Honestly, I think it will be quite tough to match 2010's performance, especially for March, April & May where we saw over 1,000 new deals signed for 3 straight months.

The reason why lies in our Monthly Pace of ACTIVEs chart..Look at 2010, the orange bars! Notice how during this period in 2010 we saw more inventory come to market, more options...Generally, demand follows inventory. if there are fewer options, there should be fewer deals. This is why an ACTIVE to PENDING ratio is worth tracking. We used to have it, but removed it because methodology between Active and Pending was different. We are working to bring it back though.

In short, if we continue to see less units come to market over the next few months, it will be quite difficult to get more new deals signed than this period last year.