Unbelievable! ISM manufacturing @---61.4

"The total farce that is US diffusion index data continues, with the manufacturing ISM printing at 61.4 on expectations of 61.0, and compared to 60.8 previously. Contrary to what the respondents actually said (see below) there was not one adverse thing to be gleaned from the ISM data. In fact, the data is now so unbelievably ridiculous that the Employment Index came at 64.5, the highest since 1973! And this as the country sees roughly 17% in U-6 underemployment, and the number of Americans on food stamps, well over 40 million, is at an all time record. This lunatic number inspired the ISM's Ore to say that "Employment looks fantastic" even though in the next sentence he confirms that "many US companies are in a margin squeeze." Um, psychotic medications much? The US Department of Truth has now gone full retard."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-department-truth-goes-full-retard-after-ism-employment-index-prints-highest-1973

Interesting pull, pulaski.

Now, Steve, show us those great debate skills you were bragging abotu earlier... would love to hear your counter.

Timmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmaaaaaaay

"Services ISM Plummets: Just 2.8 Points Away From Contraction; Concerns About Fuel And Commodity Costs, And Economic Uncertainty"

"( ) as predicted, the US economy is now in free fall (even with QE2 still having two more months to go), validated by today's Services ISM (recall that the US economy is based on "services", not a manufacturing) which plunged from 57.5 to 52.8, taking out consensus of 57.5, and "growing" at the lowest rate since August 2010. As a reminder a number south of 50 means "contraction." "

"Virtually every index declined with New Orders plummeting from 64.1 to 52.7 - the biggest drop in history, excepts for Supplier Deliveries (this will certainly drop next month), and Imports."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/services-ism-plummets-just-28-points-away-contraction-concerns-about-fuel-and-commodity-cost

the us economy is in free fall and the SP 500 is putting up huge numbers? riiiiiight

"Timberrrrr: Manufacturing ISM At Lowest Since Lehman Bankruptcy"

"Yesterday we had the biggest monthly drop in the Chicago PMI since the Lehman collapse. Today, the Lehman bankruptcy is invoked again, after the critical ISM Manufacturing index plunges to 53.5, far below expectations of 57.1, and from 60.4 previously: this is the lowest number since September 2009. At this level of "growth" stall, the US economy will be in an official contraction (Sub 50) next month."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/timberrrrr-manufacturing-ism-lowest-lehman-bankruptcy

Employment - May:58.2 April: 62.7 Change: -4.5

never the less still in expansion territory. its not gonna be a straight line up.

90, 80, 69, 54....=> Marco says, it's still Fking expanding! Flmaozz

I guess marco bgt nyc re at 90, then some more at 80, then 69 and 54. Man if you quadruple down NoW!, you are gonna make so much money!!!!!! Money!!!! $$$$ bills y'all.

"Dallas Fed Plunges, Down -17.5 On Expectations Of -3.2 Drop"

"The collapse in the manufacturing base continues: the Dallas Fed general business activity index just printed at a whopping -17.5 on expectations of -3.2, number that was supposed to be a gain from before, and yet another confirmation that Wall Steet is populated by a bunch of illiterate lemmings."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dallas-fed-plunges-down-175-expectations-od-32-drop

Steve' cognitive dissonance only allows him to read positive economic news.

ouch

"Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Stabilized in June"

"In June, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of the sector — picked up nine points to 3 from May's reading of −6. Among the index's components, shipments added twelve points to −1, new orders rose sixteen points to finish at 1, while the jobs index slipped two points to 12.
...
Hiring activity at District plants was also mixed in June. The manufacturing employment index eased two points to 12 and the average workweek measure turned negative, losing five points to −5. However, wage growth edged higher, gaining three points to finish at 9."

"This is the second regional survey to show expansion in June and was slightly stronger than expected (the Dallas Fed showed slower expansion in June).

Earlier this month, the Philly and Empire State surveys indicated contraction."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity.html

whats up with that PMI ?

"Chicago PMI Surges, Trounces Expectations, Despite Across The Board Responder Pessimism"

"Making a complete mockery of regional Fed indices, the June Chicago PMI just printed at a ridiculous 61.1 on expectations of 54.4, up from 56.6, in the process posting its 21st month of growth. Everything is now being done to prevent the all critical now ISM from printing below 50 and to extract as much juice as possible from the last QE2 POMO (the subsequent POMOs are part of the continuing QE Lite)."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chicago-pmi-surges-trounces-expectations-despite-across-board-responder-pessimism

so what is Mr. zerohedge's prediction for the ISM tomorrow? or does he just act outraged after the fact

Since you asked, I'll copy and paste, but you're not going to like it... :)

"Welcome To The Recession: Manufacturing Surveys Imply US Economy Has Entered The Second Month Of A (Re)Recession"

"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/27/2011 19:36 -0400"

"There may be those among the less than brainwashed lemmingerati out there who have noticed what, as we have pointed out for the past month when reporting on the various manufacturing and regional Fed indices, has been an epic collapse in the appropriate data series. As John Lohman so kindly demonstrates, the two month implosion has been beyond epic, and while certainly the biggest drop in the past decade, may also be the all time worst ever. To the point of this post: the last time we had an economic contraction of this magnitude was back in February of 2008, which was two months into the most acute recession in post-depression history. We are confident that once the groupthink wraps its head around the fact that the auto production based renaissance is not coming, and the economy officially tumbles into the commode of Ben Bernanke's fiat dungeon, the NBER will determine (with an appropriate 12-18 month delay), that the current recession started in April of 2011. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/manufacturing-surveys-imply-us-economy-has-entered-second-month-rerecession

i love it...lets see what happens tomorrow. I like the ISM to come in over 50. you ?

I'm gonna predict under 50.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnwyQFe3wRA :)

hahaha love carson

drum roll

firecrackah firecrackah sis boom bahhhhh

"June ISM Smashes Expectations At 55.3, ANd Prices FALL More Than Expected"

"The number is out and it's good: 55.3 is way better than expectations.

And even better, prices paid of 68.0 is below expectations of 70.9.

This is a huge win for the economic bulls.

Stocks are surging. Boom."

http://www.businessinsider.com/june-ism-2011-7

You win, Marco. I hope the economy wins too.

I hear that

pulaski...very gratious. For what it's worth have a great weekend.

steveF, the correct spelling is "gratuitous".

no offense, pulaski

alanhart thx.

I think he meant gracious

"Services ISM Misses Consensus Of 53.7, Prints At 53.3, Down From 54.6"

"As expected, last week's manufacturing ISM was a contrived, one time surge. June's Services ISM just printed at 53.3, down from 54.6 in May, and missing expectations of 53.7. As a reminder for the US, which is a 70% service economy, this number is far more indicative of the true direction of the economy."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/services-ism-misses-consensus-537-prints-533-down-546

Gracious loss of a bet, gratuitous posting of bad news. :) actually: :(

ur boy at zerohedge has lost his credibility.

ZH sees the cup as half empty and refuses to "rah-rah, hooray" things as main stream corporate media (CNBC) does. They're just looking at it from a different point of view. Fatalistic point of view, perhaps. :)

yeah but we've already seen that his research can be significantly flawed.

"Empire Manufacturing Kicks Off Weak Q3 GDP, CPI Lower Than Expected On Gas Price Drop As Core Price Increase Continues"

"So much for the Empire Manufacturing index being a harbinger of an economic pick up. With virtually everyone on Wall Street expecting a positive print, with the average at +5.00, the actual number of -3.76 comes as yet another confirmation of the (f)utility of Wall Street groupthink."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/empire-manufcaturing-kicks-weak-q3-gdp-cpi-lower-expected-gas-price-drop-core-price-increase

"July ISM Prints At 50.9, Huge Miss Of 54.9 Consensus"

"( ) the July ISM plunged from 55.3 to 50.9, or yes, "a tad above 50", on expectations of 54.9. This is the lowest ISM in two years, and confirms that the Fed's viagra no longer does anything to help the soft spot. The market took it in stride and plunged to late Friday lows. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/july-ism-prints-509-huge-miss-546-consensus

Reminder, a number below 50 signals recession.

pulaski, u missed the important part in that the reason for the lower reading is b/c of very low public(govt) spending. Private spending(construction) was up big. As Buffet said "Once construction spending comes back then so will a robust economy"

So, Steve, you're FINALLY admitting that the economy hasn't picked back up yet?

Wow, quite a change for you...

NY1 reported today, lowest manufacturing rate in two years...

"Non Manufacturing ISM Is Latest Economic Miss: Drops To 52.7 From 53.3, Below Consensus Of 53.3"

"Joining the Manufacturing ISM in the disappointment column is the just released Non-Manufacturing ISM which printed at 52.7 below consensus of 53.5, down from 53.3 previously. This is the lowest reading since January 2010. The employment index dropped from 54.1 to 52.5 ( )"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/non-manufacturing-ism-latest-economic-miss-drops-527-533-below-consensus-533

"BIG Plunge In Empire State Manufacturing Report"

"Oof: The empire manufacturing survey continues to be ugly, plunging from -3.76 to -7.72.
Analysts had expected a flat 0.0 report, so this a "surprise."

http://www.businessinsider.com/august-empire-manufacturing-2011-8

And of course stocks and oil are up - though on very light volume.

To be expected after our 4-day Flash Crash last week, with the greatest volatility ever in the history of the stock market.

Some will be complacent and think that it's up, up and away from here, but it's not. The technicals are all broken, the fundamentals suck and are getting worse. But capitulation takes some time - the market was up for a while after last year's Flash Crash, too, and it was up considerably before it hit the March 2009 low.

All I can say is - I'm glad I'm out, and beware....

"PHILLY FED CATASTROPHE: -30.7 On Expectations of +2.0"

"QE3 is being dragged, kicking and screaming, into the arena. As for the Philly Fed number below, there is no comment necessary."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/philly-fed-catastrophe-307-expectations-20

:(

QEIII is Wishful Thinking thanks to the unmitigated disaster that was QEII.

Which caused this problem.

"Disappointing Richmond Fed And New Home Sales Seal The Recessionary Deal"

"And so the double dip confirmation resumes, with the Richmond Fed printing at -10, the lowest since June 2009, well below consensus of -5, a collapse from June's -1, and the lowest since June 2009. From the report: "In August, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — declined nine points to -10 from July's reading of -1. "

"And the final nail in the economic coffin was New Home Sales which came at 298K, down from 312K upward revised prior, and missing the consensus of 310k: the lowest in 5 months. "

"( ) one false word out of Beranke on Friday, and we will see what could possibly be the most epic market crash ever."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/disappointing-richmond-fed-and-new-home-sales-seal-recessionary-deal

"the most epic market crash ever" - a little hyperbole, no?

"Chicago PMI 56.5 Lowest Since November 2009, But Beats Expectations"

"That the August Chicago PMI dropped to 56.6, down from 58.8 in July, and the lowest since November 2009 is irrelevant. What is relevant is that this number beat expectations of 53.3, so the ripfest is on: after all, stocks move higher on worse than expected data, which should they not surge on a consensus beat. Remember: the QE3/career risk rally is on. Nothing else matters."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chicago-pmi-565-lowest-november-2009-beats-expectations

"Headline ISM Beats Expectations Even As Core Components Continue To Deteriorate"

"And so the baffling them with schizophrenic BS modus operandi continues. After virtually the entire world confirmed it was contracting overnight, the US once again pulls the rabbit out of the hat, and the ISM comes at a slightly better than expected 50.6 ()"

"The problem is that the beat was once again on purely artificial data, with Inventories and Customer Inventories posting the largest increase in the month, or basically the two most hollow economic series. Far more important - Production, dropped to 48.6, the lowest since May 2009. "

"Lastly employment also fell." 51.8 from 53.5

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/headline-ism-beats-expectations-even-core-components-continue-deteriorate

"Not worse" is the new "good" right?

Yes things are getting worse. The headline in the media seems to be, "Not off the cliff." Usually, worse is a process. Falling off a cliff is an event.

"Non Manfucaturing ISM Beats Expectations On Far Weaker Sub-Headline Data"

"Just like last week's ISM beat on ugly core data was boosted by hollow peripheral components such as inventories, so today's Non-Manufacturing ISM was an exercise in pure desperation. While the August print did beat expectations of 51, coming at 53.3, up from 52.7 previously, the biggest increase was in... Prices and Export Orders (rising at 7.6 and 7.5): i.e. margin squeeze resumes. The important stuff: Business Activity and Employment? Both down (-0.5 and -0.9). Also up? Imports. In other words, Exports offset Imports, margins cuts, and less workers. But at least backlogs are up.... Until backlogged orders get cancelled. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/non-manfucaturing-ism-beats-expectations-far-weaker-sub-headline-data

Where's spunky?

Steve, how are those Dow 10,300 shorts doing? Oh, sorry...

I've already told ya, Ediot - I MADE MONEY.

It all depends on what you shorted, and whether you are foolish enough to incur capital gains, then reinvest your money in the exact same product and watch it crash.

As you did...SSO!

Steve, just one question for you here, you talk about incurring capital gains. What's the issue? The capital loss would offset.

Not if it's the same product reinvested in fewer than 30 days, which is what Ediot did when he announced that he was "putting his profit back to work."

You sure you don't have the Wash Sale rule upside down?

"Manufacturing in New York Fed Area Contracts at Faster Pace Than Forecast"

"Manufacturing in the New York region unexpectedly contracted in September at a faster pace, underscoring concerns a mainstay of the recovery is fading.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index dropped to minus 8.8, the weakest reading since November, from minus 7.7 in August."

' “The number one issue for manufacturing is the underlying strength in consumer spending,” ( ) “Without stronger consumer spending you’re not going to get a big spike in activity because durables and other products are just too important.” '

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15/manufacturing-in-new-york-fed-area-contracts-at-faster-pace-than-forecast.html

Given the fact that earnings dropped to 1990s level and jobs are not coming back, there will be no spending sprees in the foreseeable future.

Yes, but stocks and commodities rally nonetheless, despite that and the dismal jobs report (again).

On what? ANOTHER BAILOUT OF THE BANKS!

Who won't lend, of course....

"PHILLY FED REPORT MISSES AGAIN AT -17.5"

"Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing activity is continuing to contract, but declines are less widespread than in August. The survey's broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all remained negative for the second consecutive month."

http://www.businessinsider.com/september-philly-fed-index-2011-9

> I've already told ya, Ediot - I MADE MONEY.

Yeah, those 10k shorts sure sound fantastic...

lol

Ediot - you're gonna be trolled if you're not careful.

So being wrong most of the time and throwing out insults isn't enough for Steve... now he has to resort to threatening, too.

This is funny...

Now then - for the enlightened - none of this changes the future, which at least for the next 9 months or so looks dismal.

Relief rallies notwithstanding....

translation - steve was wrong yet again (dow jumps 600 points after he starts yelling crasy)... BUT JUST YOU WAIT! (and threats)

precious... very funny.

so elsewhere...you believe stocks will go back to the highs of early may??

fact is market had a huge break sicnce then and has been flagging at much lower lvls with big volatility

Nah, I thought the market was a little ahead of itself at 12,800... which is why I said so then and took a lot of profit.

Right now, I think most Americans are just turned off on stocks.

Forgot... That being said... someone I read did the analysis, stock yields aren't too bad right now.

stock yields have partially priced a double dip

if economy proves to be ok stox are cheap

im in the camp that there is too much shit in the fan to muddle through

You're not alone - WB. Big bear flag is in the brewing. Volatility is at an all-time high. Right now you're probably looking at a 38% Fibonacci retracement from the S&P 1120 lows, will bring the S&P to about 1211. The next phase down is to about 1000, barring a miracle.

Very typical retracement; very atypical volatility. This week's 4% rise on Europe was a rise on nothing. Nothing's changed; Greece will default. When stocks surge because central banks are offering lifelines to commercial banks (which is what happened yesterday) that is NOT a bullish sign: European banks can't get dollar loans.

> im in the camp that there is too much shit in the fan to muddle through

I hear you... of course, those are generally the times money is made. If there was certainty, we'd be higher.

One piece of certainty... never listen to Steve.

I listen to the Aden Sisters.

Interesting:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44548837

Yet another comparison to 2008.

"One piece of certainty... never listen to Steve"

Apparently Steve is ok with this, so he's talking to himself.

"ISM Manufacturing index increases in September"

"PMI was at 51.6% in September, up from 50.6% in August. The employment index was at 53.8%, up from 51.8%, and new orders index was unchanged at 49.6%. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/ism-manufacturing-index-increases-in.html

Whittling down the inventories is what they're doing....

"Slight Beat In Services ISM Ignored Due To Weakest Employment Index Since March 2010; Respondents Uniformly Bearish"

"With everyone focusing on the jobs number this Friday, following today's two contrasting data pieces from the abysmal Challenger layoffs report and the better than expected ADP report, one can see why the just released September Non-Manufacturing ISM, which came in modestly better than expected, in fact brings less than great news. While the overall NMI came at 53, a drop from 53.3, but better than expected 52.8, it is the Employment index that is attracting everyone's attention, printing at 48.7, down from 51.6: the lowest from March 2010, which has offset an improvement in both New Orders and Business Activity. And the kicker, all the responses in the survey were negative across the board with this one taking first prize: "It appears everyone is waiting to see what happens next. No trust in the economy or the federal government to do what is needed."Q.E.D."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/slight-beat-services-ism-ignored-due-weakest-employment-index-march-2010-respondents-uniformly-

The ADP report is always wrong.