Report shows positive signs for NYC housing:
Started by steveF
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
Discussion about
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/halstead-s-gregory-heym-report-shows-positive-signs-for-nyc-housing-market Greg Heym is the voice of Manhattan rela estate. Smart guy not just academics but knows the "street"...no pun intended TRD: There's reason to be optimistic about the city's residential real estate market after recent data highlighted a trio of positive indicators. According to a new... [more]
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/halstead-s-gregory-heym-report-shows-positive-signs-for-nyc-housing-market Greg Heym is the voice of Manhattan rela estate. Smart guy not just academics but knows the "street"...no pun intended TRD: There's reason to be optimistic about the city's residential real estate market after recent data highlighted a trio of positive indicators. According to a new report compiled by Gregory Heym, Halstead's chief economist, the city added private-sector jobs in 2010, after posting a net loss in that area the previous year. The gains were led by the education, health and hospitality fields, even as government employment fell by more than 17,000. Meanwhile, Wall Street firms had their second-highest profit total ever in 2010, with $27.6 billion. Although Wall Street cash bonuses fell by around 8 percent, as expected, firms are paying higher salaries and deferring compensation to make up for it. As The Real Deal previously reported, total compensation actually grew in 2010, leading industry experts to believe that the residential real estate market is in store for growth as well. Mortgage rates, which have rising in recent months as a reflection of improving economic conditions, dipped slightly at the end of February, which could be good news for the housing market as some analysts had worried that if mortgage rates rose too quickly, potential homebuyers would stay on the sidelines. TRD [less]
"The gains were led by the education"
I guess Mr. Heym does not read the news, with 4,600 teachers set to be laid off at the end of this school year.
"The gains were led by the education, health and hospitality fields"
And these people, earning under $100K, are the ones who will be running and buying those multimillion dollar properties.....
right. smoke another one Heym, with steveF who likes to post, but not read.
well, to be fair, health does include doctors making well over $100k.
$100K/year is not enough to rent a studio in Manhattan.
It's not enough? Are you sure?
nah.. the MTA employees clearing $300k w/ benefits pensions, buying studios in morningside heights so they can pretend to be fashionistas despite their increased weight to personality ratio of their counterparts in midtown west and MePa.
> increased weight to personality ratio of their counterparts in midtown west and MePa.
you think that there's real personality in midtown west?
So, after two years of SteveF saying prices were going up (and being wrong) and that there would be a stampede of buyers (wrong again), and we'd be up 10% in 2010 (wrong again) the best he can do now is... "positive signs".
Wow, that's quite a backtrack.
hejiranyc: "$100K/year is not enough to rent a studio in Manhattan."
Socialist: "It's not enough? Are you sure?"
$100,000 - 40% (fed, state, local taxes, insurance) = $60,000
$60,000 / 12 months = $5,000
$5,000 - $400 (food 4 weeks @ $100) = $4,600
$4,600 - $150 (gas and electricity) = $4,450
$4,450 - $100 (cell phone) = $4,350
$4,350 - $104 (30 day unlimited metrocard) = $4,250
$4,250 - $100 (TV and internet) = $4,150
$4,150 - $150 (put away into savings) = $4,000
$4,000 - $2,000 (studio in a "nice" area) = $2,000
$2,000 = party time!
...or is it? What am I forgetting?
Landlords look for 48 times the rent, so $2083. That'll get you a non-doorman studio just about anywhere except Tribeca.
You're forgetting health insurance, school loan, 401K and other possible contribution to any private retirement plan...
"- $150 (put away into savings)"
"party time!" indeed!
4k a yr in savings - you will be able to retire when you are 98 at that rate
Let's do it again:
$100,000 - 40% (fed, state, local taxes, insurance) = $60,000
$60,000 / 12 months = $5,000
$5,000 - $400 (food 4 weeks @ $100) = $4,600
$4,600 - $150 (gas and electricity) = $4,450
$4,450 - $100 (cell phone) = $4,350
$4,350 - $104 (30 day unlimited metrocard) = $4,250
$4,250 - $100 (TV and internet) = $4,150
$4,150 - $500 ($6K/yr put away into 401K) = $3,650
$3,650 - $666 ($60K student load, 120 month payment plan at 6%) = $2,984
$2,984 - $2,100 (studio in a "nice" area) = $884
$884 = party time, surely?
The 401K would be pre tax. Probably could come close to max out 401K and still make it work.
party time, or lunch and dry cleaning. Your choice!
maly: "lunch" - what, can't bring a brown bag from home? You have a hundred bucks a month in your budget! Seriously! I'll grant you dry cleaning and let's max out the 401K.
$100,000 - 40% (fed, state, local taxes, insurance) = $60,000
$60,000 / 12 months = $5,000
$5,000 - $400 (food 4 weeks @ $100) = $4,600
$4,600 - $150 (gas and electricity) = $4,450
$4,450 - $100 (cell phone) = $4,350
$4,350 - $104 (30 day unlimited metrocard) = $4,250
$4,250 - $100 (TV and internet) = $4,150
$4,150 - $833 ($10K/yr put away into 401K, 10% of 100K max) = $3,317
$3,317 - $666 ($60K student load, 120 month payment plan at 6%) = $2,651
$2,651 - $100 (dry clean $2/pants,shirt, 5 used in a week, 4 weeks, +tax, accidental $20) = $2,551
$2,551 - $2,100 (studio in a "nice" area) = $451
$451 = clubbin' time!
No one earning $100K is paying a 40% effective tax rate, even with social security, etc. built in.
Assuming no deductions whatsoever, a single person with $100K in income would pay about $35K in taxes. In reality, I'd expect somewhat lower values than that since things like 401(k) are deductible from most of that.
oh shit...you got sick...pay the deductibles/copays and uncovered charges (this is just a little bronchitis, say)...no more partyyyy
woopps elderly mom lost her job...she's moving in
damn, now youre pregnant
party on!!!
so zero savings? just raid the 401k in case of unemployment, illness, etc...?
You guys and your details... Let's assume you're single and forever alone, no significant other and your parents are well taken care of and loaded.
OK, here we go:
$100,000 - $10,000 (401K pre tax contribution) = $90,000
$90,000 - 35% (fed, state, local taxes) = $58,500
$58,500 / 12 months = $4,875
$4,875 - $400 (food 4 weeks @ $100) = $4,325
$4,325 - $150 (gas and electricity) = $4,175
$4,175 - $100 (cell phone) = $4,075
$4,075 - $104 (30 day unlimited metrocard) = $3,971
$3,971 - $100 (TV and internet) = $3,871
$3,817 - $666 ($60K student load, 120 month payment plan at 6%) = $3,305
$3,305 - $100 (dry clean $2/pants,shirt, 5 used in a week, 4 weeks, +tax, accidental $20) = $3,205
$3,205 - $50 ($50*12 one major illness a year $600 deductible) = $3,155
$3,155 - $2,100 (studio in a "nice" area) = $1,055
$1,055 = you can party in Ibiza for that much! Can't you?
"Landlords look for 48 times the rent, so $2083. That'll get you a non-doorman studio just about anywhere except Tribeca."
Yup.
If you can't afford a studio in Manhattan on $100k (without it being a special case) then maybe living in Manhattan just isn't your priority.
I know numerous people who live in non-stabilized who make under $75k. $50k would be pushing it.
When I was making 100K, I rented a small 2bdrm apartment in a two family house in nice safe neighborhood in Brooklyn for $650/month. I used the 2nd bdrm as a walk in closet.
what is the point here?
pulaski's example budget is more common than it should be. Making that kind of money and still practically living paycheck to paycheck!
Where will the next wave of home buyers come from after all the parent and grandparent money is spent?...
Having $1K per month of disposable income is hardly living paycheck to paycheck. The poverty line in the US is less than $12K per year for a single person; something like 15% of the population earns less than our hypothetical person's party money.
jordyn, yet you think that budget is ok? How long will that hypothetical person be able to stay in her apartment after losing her job?
Give me a break Jordyn! You know $100K is tight by NY standard! The breakout Pulaski made above is very valid.
+ Some Health insurance have a deductible before kicking in. Dentist? Mostly covers 40% only. Clothes? Don't you buy any? A $1000 saving won't get you far in NYC.
Honestly, I think you people have no clue what "tight" actually means. For you folks, it apparently means you might not be able to get new jeans or your teeth bonded in any given month. For many, many people living paycheck to paycheck means no savings, no 401(k), often no health insurance, and certainly nowhere near $1000 wondering what you're going to spend it on each month.
I agree that money goes a *lot* less far in New York than it does in other places, and that you'd have a much higher standard of living with $100K in Houston than in New York. But let's get real, the disposable income part of the equation spends much closer to the same regardless of where you live. I'd guess the significant majority of people in the country have nowhere near $1K per month in disposable income, yet here we're arguing that this person is on the brink of disaster? You can only possibly think this is the case because you've never met someone who's not at least upper middle class, or not bothered to understand what their life is like.
To put this in perspective again, there are precisely zero zip codes in Manhattan where the median income is greater than $100K. So even in the richest parts of basically the richest place in the country, this person is better off than average.
So here is an example of how good NYC housing is doing. I got this unsolicited e-mail from a Douglas Elliman realtor this morning.
"Cash Buyers Haven
Following the bank note sell of the troubled Irish Bank, Anglo Irish, the Setai Wall street is now available for purchasers who've been waiting since August 2010.
AG approval is on its way and should be granted before the end of the month. Prices are estimated to be around $1100 per sq ft but for those who can purchase in cash and close by March 25th, a steep discount is offered. For the nature of this transaction details will be given upon request. Prices range from $715,000 to over $2,000,000."
$1100 a square foot in a place in financial trouble in Wall Street? What was the price per square foot before? I'll have to rush right out and get me a couple of those bargains. Ha!
jordyn, I don't disagree that $100K/yr is a lot of money. I only have an issue with the fact that the budget examples result in close to zero savings. Again, how long will that hypothetical person be able to stay in her apartment after losing her job with that kind of budget?
"You can only possibly think this is the case because you've never met someone who's not at least upper middle class, or not bothered to understand what their life is like."
When I was around 10yrs old, our family slept on cardboard (refrigerator box) for more than a year; yes, in this city. So, yes, I do know what it is like.
About market, didn't anyone read the news about Icahn returning investors' money "just in case"?
About $100K, it is sometimes amusing how insular and warped the perception of NYC living can be in most people's posts on SE. Most illuminating is the smug remarks about each others' neighborhoods, or disdain for places in the middle of nowhere because they're three blocks from a subway in Manhattan. The city looks a lot different to more than 80% of New Yorkers than it does to a small minority, most of whom I don't believe will be in the five boroughs 10 years from now, or even in the Tri-State area.
Based on your overnight input:
$100,000 - $10,000 (401K pre tax contribution) = $90,000
$90,000 - 35% (fed, state, local taxes) = $58,500
$58,500 / 12 months = $4,875
$4,875 - $400 (food 4 weeks @ $100) = $4,325
$4,325 - $150 (gas and electricity) = $4,175
$4,175 - $100 (cell phone) = $4,075
$4,075 - $104 (30 day unlimited metrocard) = $3,971
$3,971 - $100 (TV and internet) = $3,871
$3,817 - $666 ($60K student load, 120 month payment plan at 6%) = $3,305
$3,305 - $100 (dry clean $2/pants,shirt, 5 used in a week, 4 weeks, +tax, accidental $20) = $3,205
$3,205 - $50 ($50*12 one major illness a year $600 deductible) = $3,155
$3,155 - $100 (for the chic clothing to go with your fancy Manhattan studio) = $3,055
$3,055 - $55 (put away $55 a month for dentists, specialists, psychiatrists) = $3,000
$3,000 - $100 (savings in addition to 401K, $1,200/yr) = $2,900
$2,900 - $2,100 (studio in a "nice" area) = $800
See, you can still go clubbing with eight hundred bucks!
need to add employee FICA/Medicare contribution.
there are 52 weeks in the year. i.e. food at $433 and by the way, in a city where a six pack of beer costs $8 and a beer at a bar costs $8, good luck with that $100 week figure.
Your clothing allowance is a bit weak. You're going to look mighty ratty on $1,200 a year.
Seriously?! No one else have an issue with the "savings" part of the budget? At the $100/month savings rate from the lastest budget, it would take 4 YEARS to save enough for ONE month of expenses!!!
cc, the 35% would be enough to cover fica/medicare since the 401K, health insurance, metrocard, healthcare fsa would be paid using pretax money, bringing down the taxable income.
Sunday,
We are talking about renting now. If you lose your $100K job and cannot find a job, then just move. We are talking a $2K rent. Go find a cheaper place while you look for your new job. This hypothetical person is not buying but just renting.
I give up. Enjoy the party!
The savings number is probably low, but we know that generally Americans don't save that much, so I don't think it's that atypical.
Whether or not saving an additional bit a month is reasonable depends on how much you already have in hand. If not much, it might make sense to move some of the 401(k) into savings or (obviously) reprioritize where you live or how much of the $1K you spend partying.
But it's also correct that one of the virtues of renting is that you can downsize your housing costs much more quickly if you need to.
You guys are ruining SteveF's and Heym's fantasy with all this quibbling!
$100,000.00 - $10,000.00 = $90,000.00
$90,000.00 - 35% = $58,500.00
$58,500.00 / 12 = $4,875.00
Food $433.00
Gas & electric $150.00
Cell phone $100.00
Metrocard $104.00
TV & Internet $100.00
Student Loan 666.00
Dry Clean 100.00
Major illness deductible $50.00
Clothing (up to $2,400/yr) $200.00
Medical emergency $55.00
Savings $200.00
Rent $2,100.00
Total Expenses: $4,258.00
Left over: $617.00
If you can live in a studio on a 100K, surely you can afford to buy, can't you?!
you're all forgetting:
bottled water
lattes
newspapers
taxis
food - yeah, $433 is possible, but takes discipline - the point of living in Manhattan is to go out
modest dinner for two, no wine = ______
lowery, maybe it's easier in LIC.
sorry, couldn't help myself.
but this kind of reminds me of my early years. first job in publishing in the mid-80s. $12k. lasted about six months on that salary before the massive salary of $15k plus overtime as a paralegal became my reality (about $25k if one worked hard, for me about $22k because i liked to dance). luckily chelsea was still moderately dangerous, so three of us could get a first floor two-bedroom apartment (read bars on the windows, although the apartment was quite nice with a lovely garden) for $1500. i actually worked through the numbers, though, and today isn't that much different for the new graduate (which kind of surprised me), except they'll likely be living in brooklyn (or elsewhere) now.
AR - "today isn't that much different for the new graduate (which kind of surprised me), except they'll likely be living in brooklyn (or elsewhere) now."
I think that is the main difference. You can live in Manhattan on 100K in a studio. I don't think a person could have much money to party with. About LIC..... it's not cheap!
wow, take a housewife that invest well, earning as little as $15k/year on investment income. she will end up doing better than sby earning $100k/year from wages living in a studio by himself/herself.
- japan, here we come!
kudos to ms watanabe by the way :-)
"end up doing better" in the sense that ends up having more to show at the end of the year. this disregards the value of the experience of working and fun of partying like one single people (and charly sheen) can.
lowery:
you're all forgetting:
bottled water (let's say it's included in "food)
lattes (added)
newspapers (added)
taxis (added)
food - yeah, $433 is possible, but takes discipline (OK, bumped food up to $500/mo)
$100,000.00 - $10,000.00 = $90,000.00
$90,000.00 - 35% = $58,500.00
$58,500.00 \ 12 = 4,875.00
Total Income = $4,875
Food $500.00
Gas & electric $150.00
Cell phone $100.00
Metrocard $104.00
TV & Internet $100.00
Student Loan $666.00
Dry Clean $100.00
Major illness deductible $50.00
Clothing $200.00
Medical emergency $55.00
Savings $200.00
Lattes ($4/day*5)*4 $80.00
Taxi (one trip a week at $15)*4 $60.00
Books & newspapers (NYT $24 a month subscription, plus one book) $44.00
Rent $2,100.00
Total Expenses $4,509.00
Parteey Moneaaaaay: $366.00
> NYT $24 a month subscription
given that's 100% available online, why would anybody buy the subscription? i don't think it'd be worth even $100/year if it weren't available online. really overpriced imho.
about the little expenses, Netflix on the other hand is becoming a non-discretionary (as it's internet and a cell phone). how much does the avg manhattan resident spend on regular laundry? $20/month? and on dinning out once per week? (guess the avg $100k/year worker does it way much more often than that)
"wow, take a housewife that invest well, earning as little as $15k/year on investment income. she will end up doing better than sby earning $100k/year from wages living in a studio by himself/herself."
Of course, when you have everything else paid for by someone else, it's easy.
So, for someone earning 100K, how long does it take to save the down payment, closing costs, and cash reserves necessary for buying a decent studio apartment?
> So, for someone earning 100K, how long does it take to save the down payment, closing costs, and cash reserves necessary for buying a decent studio apartment?
longer than what it takes that person to start needing a 2 bedroom instead of a studio.
> Of course, when you have everything else paid for by someone else, it's easy.
the biggest expenses are so different when not living alone, sure life overall is easier for all. there's nothing like not adding tax burden, sharing fixed costs (shelter) and having an incentive to cook at home and well (like Ms Watanabe does, it not only increases quality of life a lot, it's also much healthier long term, there's no need for diets and living in the gym with a great cook at home).