1,005 new Manhattan CSGNs in past 30 days...

do you have an app for that? I'm thinking the bears could use something quick and mobile as they're out there picking through the leftovers.

so, you're feeling great because of the greater fool theory. except you haven't found your greater fool yet.

once again, CC nailed it...

UB, isn't the active now almost exactly where it was a year ago?

btw, in terms of off-market trends, wasn't january inventory this year almost 500 more than last year? it never went down as much, which to me at least would explain some of the discrepancy.

AR, please email me when you can...Here is what I see from a year ago:

ACTIVE - flat
OFF MKT - down 36.5%
PENDING - down 0.9%

These are 1yr trends..If you shorten it up to 6 months trend you see this:

ACTIVE - up 2.2%
OFF MKT - down 25.6%
PENDING - up 18.3%

well, your pending is way up. but i don't know how i think that's such a great metric necessarily considering that inventory is the just about the same as last year. so there have been a fair amount of contracts, but inventory is still increasing.

i have to wonder if there wasn't a certain early bonus bounce. i'm interested in seeing how the rest of spring plays out. i'm seeing huge weakness in the smaller unit market, including some that FP counts in the move up market. and one has to wonder how long the trade up market will do well when those who want to trade up can't sell their units.

i'm happy to e-mail you, though, always like to chat.

we have to consider the whole picture. At all times ACTIVE inventory is being influenced in the following ways:

GAINS: Brand New Listings, Listings Back on Market from prior Off Mkt State, Listings in purgatory that get re-activated by fresh Broker Status Update in Active state

LOSSES: Active Listings that go into contract, Active listings that go Off-Mkt, Active listings that go stale w/ no broker status updates, Active listings that close w/out proper status change to CSGN, Active listings longer than 2yrs on market

We know off-mkt trends are way down, so that is a net GAIN in general for Active inventory. In other words, there is not nearly as many listings coming off market today as there were this time last year - 4/5 months have been yoy negative. We know new actives trends are way down, so that is a net LOSS in general for ACTIVE inventory lately. The fact that pending is holding its own given this tells me listings are selling, rather than "lingering" on market. I would bet days on market and absorption trends lately have been on the decline.

Its not as simple when you look at all the factors that affect this one measure of Manhattan supply that we call current ACTIVE Inventory. So we have to look at monthly pace of new additions too. When we look at that, we get a more complete picture.

Any of these contract at 500 p/ft? W67?

I hate to take this esteemed fact based thread into anecdotal land but.......

If you are over 40 with either kids in college or facing retirement, and you missed the greatest opportunity of a lifetime to sell into the world's greatest bubble, why wouldn't you jump at the chance to sell now -- after the stock market has just doubled courtesy of Fed policy. That is your early bonus bounce, AR. Anecdotally, I begged two good friends to sell in 2007 but they both refused since they had 20 years of cushion in their apts. They swore they would never leave Manhattan and didn't want to be priced out. Both families are selling this spring. So in my universe, that is 100% upswing in active listings. The world is in turmoil, baby boomers are aging and they all just had the bejesus scared out of them over the past couple of years re: nest eggs. Little wonder why there is weakness in low end of market. Everyone who didn't make a killing in the market in the past two years, is trading down. Then add in the huge bonus packages of the financial robber barons in a time of growing inflation. They would be the first to put money in RE. The RE comuppance in Manhattan -- just like the bank balance sheets -- got kicked down the road a few years. This should be a very good RE spring in Manhattan.

So apt23, all the bear predictions are true, just not now? Jesus, why can't you people admit you've been wrong?

How many of the stale apartments are expiring out of off market status versus being taken out in another way like in contract or being reactivated?

Put another way, what is the stock of off-off market listings?

skinny - that I dont know. I would have to ask my engineer to query that. Thing is, I only have him for 5-6 hours a week and I have to pick what tools he works on very wisely. So, Im afraid this will have to wait as we have more important items to finish to launch.

No problem. Thanks. Just thought that would settle the off market issue.

oh I definitely want to know! I agree. However, in our algorithms, you cannot go from off-mkt to in contract. A listing MUST be in a prior ACTIVE state to go to CSGN state. Data integrity issues required that piece of engineering. The system is much better with it this way.