So Mahattan hit badly in the last quarter

`Jonathan J. Miller, the president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel and the author of Elliman’s report, offered a reason why prices had come down and said that the mix of what had sold in 2011 suggested that prices were essentially flat. While higher-priced condos accounted for more of the properties sold last year, he said, the number of co-ops sold went up significantly this year, and because co-ops tend to be priced lower than condos, that trend pulled average and median prices down.

`“Condo sales were down only because inventory is down, but co-ops showed a burst in activity,” Mr. Miller said. “If you put that all together with the fact that last year’s bump was somewhat artificial, you see that the market today is weak, but essentially stable.”'

Oops, lost the cite from today's paper: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/realestate/01realestate.html

I understand and I guess it remains unknown. However the Times quoting the heads of RE firms once again tells me that article in particular is a puff piece. These people didn't even say things were that bad when they were dead in the water. That is their job. No way they will say anything remotely dire. Guess we'll wait and see. Remember it took years after '87. I still like to see medians down. Averages to me mean nothing.

yorkville coops lookin strong

my parents and sister both live there. I heard there was a recent article about the neighborhood. Good schools and much better priced than lex-fifth area

again, sales reports are BIG time lagging and represent the market from a period of time that is about 5-6 months ago. Reasons why:

1. It takes 2-3 months to go from contract signing to closing
2. It takes MIN of 2-4 weeks for a sale to get captured by public record
3. Ideally, if you want to see ALL of January's closings, its best if you wait until April 1st so you can get all the late January sales that are filed in both February and March!

If you understand this, and then read the sales reports, you will understand why its a rear view mirror report and may not jive with what buyers, sellers or brokers are seeing in today's marketplace.

On March 25th ACRIS sales filings alone, I see:

1, 2008 sale
6, 2010 sales
3, January sales
4, February sales

On March 28th sales filings, I see:

8, February sales

On March 30th sales filings, I see:

2, Q4-2010 sales
3, Janurary sales
7, February sales

This is just a few. People need to understand that this report today, will NOT include a whole batch of Jan-Feb-March sales that actually took place. Those will become available in future filings, especially a chunk of February and a good chunk of March.

It was also interesting that both Corcoran and Elliman reported seeing pretty sizable increases in signed contracts vs. last year, and that they are tracking those numbers as well as closed deals.

because they started to realize that PENDING SALES is a vital piece of information! Dont ask me why it took so long to realize that!

digs, when are you going to convince the media that their reporting is lame and out of date? Let's see some pending sales information in the next Times article right? These people are such dinosaurs....

Noah, we demand that you all be perfect. In retrospect, too.

Remember some crackpot on here a few years ago, hysterical that MillerSamuel adjusted its quarterly numbers in later quarters.

Better for us savvy people who do the due diligence and are aware of such sites as Noah that contain the correct "data". We can then make money off of the misinformed mainstream media slaves such as cccharley(above).

"Remember some crackpot on here a few years ago, hysterical that MillerSamuel adjusted its quarterly numbers in later quarters."

I think that was me, wasn't it? Go perfect, or go home!

"Remember some crackpot on here a few years ago, hysterical that MillerSamuel adjusted its quarterly numbers in later quarters."

that wasnt me was it? Im all for adjustments if there is a reason to. Me & my team are thinking about how to adjust for ACRIS sales now. Im thinking of doing it like they do GDP report, issue a preliminary #, and advanced number and a final number as future sales filings roll in. So basically, 2 adjustments.

will take time to engineer though.

No, I'm Spartacus!

> Better for us savvy people who do the due diligence

ROTFL.....

oh my lord, now THAT was the funniest thing I ever heard from SteveF.

SWE, high hon..btw it's April 1st and the rent had better be paid. Rents are going up up up and your landlord is not happy with your antics of paying the rent on the 2nd. Better be direct deposited by the end of today or you'll be out the door. Today is a special day in that today's rent payment drops his loan balance to 100k left that used to be 400k. He thanks you for buying it for him! btw, how does it feel to see prices on the low/high/middle-end apts very close to peak levels. You were so wrong.

Don't f with me swe I'll destroy you every time hon....

I only tell u one time, don't f me Tony, don't ever try to f me....

J Miller and Noah Rosenblatt appear to be discounting the quarter calling it an abnormality. It doesn't appear to be representative of what's going on. The fact that the numbers came on such light volume has me inclined to agree.

The Bloomberg piece didn't seem to say anything about the average size or number of bedrooms vs a year ago either. Was that stated anywhere?

Prices are down, YOY, period. When they were UP, the cheerleaders were not saying "Well, its because of 15 CPW." We will see what happens in 1Q2011, but as Las Vegas or Miami show, volume increases DO NOT equal price increases.

I didn't see that. Steve F why be nasty to me? All I posted on was a blip on the tv news. Someone else posted the NY Times article. I really don't appreciate it. Leave me out of it please. Noah is polite and gives me references. You are a cocky bastard

He's just smarting from his ill-timed purchases, ccharley, that's all. Let him vent.

cccharley...I wasn't nasty just stating facts is all. Please reread it's just facts. Those who don't do their research are in for a rude awakening. This may sound cocky and..well.. hell..it is!...you s/b glad u ran into me :)

Thanks Ino - I am having a bad day. Nobody can predict the future so we'll all have to wait and see. I will say that nothing is as good as the news predicts including the job front in NYC. It's pretty bad and I know this first hand. People are still losing j.obs. It makes me sick. Enjoy our wintry mix today

Ahem! Attention!!! please stop reading USA Today for your latest real estate data! Do some homework for pete's sake. Dig a little, learn a little, you'll be amazed at what you find. Prices are not down, activity is way up, prices are up, inventory is down. The market is more active than in 2010 and that was a banner year.

I've done all I can do here the rest is up to you....

No Steve you don't have the facts nor can you predict the future. If you could you'd be lounging in the Bahamas instead of posting on SE. How old are you anyway? Were you here for the crash of 88 or were you in diapers?

Ok. So help me decode this.

Miller says that prices are down because the mix this year was priced lower than last year.

Willkie says "while volume was down, the number of sales last year was inflated because of the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers." As everyone knows the tax credit only helped the lower end of the market.

So lower prices is a result of higher priced product sold last year. And lower sales numbers are a result of lower priced product sold last year.

From that NYT article;

"Hall F. Willkie, president of Brown Harris Stevens, said that while volume was down, the number of sales last year was inflated because of the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. %u201CThere was a real scramble to beat the deadline,%u201D he said. %u201CSo sales were really explosive last year, and I never would have predicted it, but last year turned out to be our strongest year in history.%u201D

Didn't know Brown Harris Stevens specialized in the tax credit crowd, where exactly is the Jamaica, Queens office?

inonada...what does that mean??? I don't get it. The market is moving big time, contracts are being signed, prices are up as supply is drying up. So what r u saying??? Those apts u fell in love with are getting more expensive as I type this....

Looking forward to the following being available, not up yet
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO1Q11.pdf

steveF, Please feel free to post any of the results of your extensive diligence on the comps threads. Because all I'm seeing recently there from West81st on the UES and UWS is telling the exact opposite story on prices.

malthus: "As everyone knows the tax credit only helped the lower end of the market."

I disagree with the idea that the tax credit only helped the lower end unless you think everything under $2mm is lower end. The "buyer" tax credit is in reality split between the buyer and the seller since the seller can get a higher price because of the demand. The seller ends up with more money to spend for an upgrade (mid range) and so on... Triggle up... Triggle down...

the market today is weak, but essentially stable

this say's it all.

Malthus is right, the tax credit really helped the lower end; low mortgage rates helped the middle of the market, and higher stock prices helped the higher end. Yet, the year ended on a fizzle. The brokers seem to think it's a meaningless anomaly, a momentary weakness caused by the earlier rally. Of course, I wouldn't expect them to say that after a short moment of governemnt-induced irrational exuberance, everything is pointing down again. They make money by selling stuff, not being Debbie Downers.

Re: steveF "The market is moving big time, contracts are being signed, prices are up as supply is drying up..."

Did I just hear someone actually say buy now or be priced out forever?

West34..it is what it is..the market is moving. Wouldn't want to be a buyer in 2012 or 2013 when there is no inventory. yikes, you may be priced out forever

To streeteasy crowd:

Is this SteveF guy a broker? Or a desperate owner?

He seems like a bit of a joke, no?

Someone who bought in 2008.

This is not about Manhattan, but I noticed lately that certain Bklyn neighborhoods are down by 10% to 20% from year ago.

Specifically Ditmas Park, Windsor Terrace and Greenwood are really noticeably down. I am familiar with a handful of apt buildings there so I can do true comp comparison, knowing what a one-bed at a certain address sold for 15 mos and what the same floor plan is asking now.

Big difference. I was very surprised. Noticed it about two weeks ago, although I had not been closely watching for the past several mos, so it could have started sooner.

Have not noticed this effect yet in nabes north of Prospect Park, like Ft. Greene or Clinton Hill. Only the nabes south of the park.

farquhar..who the f r u?
To streeteasy crowd?? haha, Hello streeteasy crowd, parden me please, but can u the crowd please address my question? The crowd, you people are just a crowd. How do you know it's a crowd anyway? Could be one guy with a 1000 aliases. Sounds like an insult. Calling us sophisticated real estate people a crowd. Crowd is more of a negative. "Look at that freaken crowd" or "will this crowd ever get lost" or "look at that crowd of kids"
Nothing positive from the use of the word crowd sir,

Anyhow back to your question. I'm a bull.

maly, nope almost did, couldn't get the financing. Investors were laughed at back then. But held tight and now enjoying the ride up....again.

Maly - got it, thanks! Makes sense now.

Farquhar, congratulations, you've successfully identified SteveF as the clown of streeteasy!

Basically, SteveF bought at the peak, has some studios that are likely well underwater, and is trying to pump the market but in a wildly desperate way. His frothy, swirley-eyed rants that you read are very typical.

believe it or not, the market cant be swayed either way by what is said on streeteasy. Its going to what its going to do regardless of how many bull / bear arguements are posted.

marco, totally agree, but that logic does not stop quite a few people from trying on here.

"Its going to what its going to do regardless of how many bull / bear arguements are posted. "

AMEN!

'Is this SteveF guy a broker? Or a desperate owner?'

real estate diva

as to the bull/bear argument.

the trend is your friend. It has been difficult to read the trend...hence the debate.

PENDING: http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Pending+Sales&s2=&mindt=01%2F01%2F2008&maxdt=04%2F01%2F2011&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2009%2F04%2F01

ACTIVE: http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=&mindt=04%2F01%2F2009&maxdt=04%2F01%2F2011&Update=Update&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=

Prices of mortgage debt is increasing. New delinquencies are down, Credit spreads are down, jobs are up, rents are increasing....
We basically hit bottom.

The report is now available:

http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/DEmanhattan1Q11.pdf

Bash away!!!

Traditionally, this time of year should be the busiest for generating jobs (on WS), but it's not so this year. Financial firms are taking a breather and have noticably slowed down their hiring. Last year's results were disappointing all over Wall Street, expenses were too high, revenues not high enough to justify the current headcount.

There're plans in place for additional trimming (a.k.a. "under the radar" layoffs), and outsourcing is in full swing.

Jobs situation is not very bright in Manhattan at the moment. I highly doubt any kind of RE bottom can be reached when average jobs and incomes are trending down. JMHO.

Inonada, the most striking statistic is the huge DECREASE in pending sales year-over-year (over 14%).

Seasonally, Q1 is stronger than Q4 (the market is pretty dead from Thanksgiving to New Year's). Therefore, we should compare apples to apples, Q1 to Q1 prior year. And it's down massively.

Price per square foot is also down YoY.

Not a "buy now or be priced out forever" situation, to put it mildly, LOL.

"inonada...what does that mean??? I don't get it. The market is moving big time, contracts are being signed, prices are up as supply is drying up. So what r u saying??? Those apts u fell in love with are getting more expensive as I type this...."

It means "pick on someone your own size". You wanna talk market, let's talk market. Why don't you tell us where you bought your investments, when you bought (2007, right) them, roughly what price you paid, how much tax/cc's you're paying, and what you're getting for rent? I think you're man enough to give us the deets.

FTR, I'm not in the market to buy anything. I pay 2.9% of the value of the apt I rent annually. Take out taxes and cc's, it's down to 1.5%. Take out insurance, upkeep, and transaction costs amortized over 10 years, and it's down to 0%. As long as someone is willing to lend me an apartment for free, why the hell would I tie up my cash and pay for one? I like to view it as a housing subsidy program, except it's the rich subsidizing the rich. Now what I rent is much higher-end than your studios, but I've got no problem with investors like you paying high prices as it lifts the supply of nice apt as developers will construct more and more at the prices you're willing to pay, and existing apts will renovate to keep up. It's not like the improvements in quality have translated into higher rents. If anything, it's been the opposite. There's only so much income to support the rents.

Drujan, I think the Q1 numbers you see in the report are mostly Q4 contracts that closed in Q1. My preferred metric is the SE index, which double-dipped a little bit and then has risen a little from Nov-Jan where it now sits. My guess is that we'll see it shifting down as the effects of the large rise in interest rates in Nov 2010 make their way through rate locks & contract signings & whatnot.

inonada, seems that you have a great deal on rent which is below the market. Large one bed rooms 850 sq ft rent for at least 4k and sell for 950K in 60 east 8th street. Almost 5% of value. Realize for very large expesive places, this ratio is lower.

I know, 300_mercer. I'm just poking at my buddy steveF for a little sparring.

In my segment, 4% is easy to find, but 3% is unusual. It was on the market for about a month when I saw it, and it had an offer on it that was deemed too low (mind you I came in at 15% below ask and we ended up just a nudge from there), so it wasn't some sort of super anomaly. However, the marketing wasn't that great. The pics were not professional, the decor didn't work well with marketing it (though there was not much the agent could do on this), etc. I distinctly remember clicking through the pictures fast, about to reject it in my online search, when I realized "Oh, wait!"

How goes your search? Still a foot in the market to buy, a foot out? I can't figure out what you're looking for as I see you sometimes post these 850 sq ft places, and sometimes 1800 sq ft places.

Renting is 1000 sq ft. But buying loft with 2000 sq ft close to subway as we feel that buy it and live there for ever unless the job forces you to move or we start to make at least double our current income.

I see. I guess buying something in the $2M range? To me, that's the equivalent of spending $10K a month on rent. You can find a lot of lolly for that kind of money. And unlike buying, if your income changes up or down, you can turn on a dime. If you think spending $10K a month on housing is excessive, I think you'd do well to revisit spending $2M on buying a place. Otherwise, I suggest you get busy living if you decide to continue renting. You seem to be looking at paying $4K to rent a $1M place vs. $10K to buy a $2M place; why isn't $10K rent for a $3M place or $2.7M or whatever an option?

I agree analytically but we do not want to move, want a nice home, and keep at leat half our money in cash. A $2mm apt for us with 50% down is just a $1mm mortgage as our money in cash does not make anything any way after 45% taxes - strange way to think but true if we believe the real estate in manhattan has bottomed but may not have much upside. We also anticipate the need for more space in the future.

From the NYT article:

"Dottie Herman, chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman, sounded a cautionary note. The continued difficulty that buyers face when trying to get a mortgage may still hamper the market, she said. “For the market to be really healthy again,” she said, “you have to fix the financing piece, and that’s still up in the air.”"

I hate to break it to you, Dottie, but the piece which needs fixing for "the market to be really healthy again" is the price, not financing.

Lower the prices to a level where an average income can afford an average apartment, and the market will heal itself.

Artificially iflating the price via "innovative" financing makes homes unaffordable, and will only lead to another burst bubble. Sheesh!

Sounds like Fed policy is working as intended, then. Best of luck, and continue to keep up posted on your search.

"SWE, high hon..btw it's April 1st and the rent had better be paid. Rents are going up up up and your landlord is not happy with your antics of paying the rent on the 2nd."

Agreed. Because he's already underwater, has lost a ton of money, and needs to grasp back whatever he can get. Of course, he still can't pay all his bills with my rent. Thanks for the subsidy, landlord!

"btw, how does it feel to see prices on the low/high/middle-end apts very close to peak levels."

Down 20% is the new "so close"!

"You were so wrong."

Steve, is 100% right supposed to be the new wrong? You were as wrong as wrong could be. You called for stocks to be sold, and RE to be bought, and turns out stocks went up 70% and RE down 17.6%

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPS!

"Don't f with me swe I'll destroy you every time hon...."

Yes, with laughter. Your "points" are so moronic they kill me almost every time.

" only tell u one time, don't f me Tony, don't ever try to f me...."

Of course, SteveF has said it about 100x, and they he generally gets his ass kicked and thrown to the curb each time...

"He's just smarting from his ill-timed purchases, ccharley, that's all. Let him vent. "

Bingo. SteveF literally called it exactly wrong, and he's in pain, and lashing out at everyone else... particularly the people who he should have listened to in the first place.

"cccharley...I wasn't nasty just stating facts is all"

Steve wouldn't know a fact if it bought his underwater condo.

"Those who don't do their research are in for a rude awakening."

That would be SteveF

"This may sound cocky and..well.. hell..it is!..."

Bragging about your mistakes isn't cocky, its... stupidity. Unless you want us to think you are stupid. That would make some sense.

"eveF, Please feel free to post any of the results of your extensive diligence on the comps threads. Because all I'm seeing recently there from West81st on the UES and UWS is telling the exact opposite story on prices."

You're gonna wait a long, long... LONG time...

"Did I just hear someone actually say buy now or be priced out forever? "

Yes, SteveF.. for the third year in a row!

Moronic.

"To streeteasy crowd:
Is this SteveF guy a broker? Or a desperate owner?
He seems like a bit of a joke, no?"

Yes and yes. Desperate owner, and a complete joke.