Manhattan Median... Down 24% from Peak (maybe)

sorry, to clarify, it says Elliman had that number... but supposedly it is the same source.

Wow, what does it say that another (possible) 6% drop in prices gets met with yawn...

Ironically, weren't some of the bulls going "where did those bears go" just a few days ago? (of course, that one got responded to)

crickets

So is it time for us all to switch our arguments? The bulls start talking about how medians are flawed because of the mix and also NYC is unique, and the bears put their faith in cold, hard numbers put out by Douglas Elliman. Fun!

Hahahahhahahaahhahahahahahahahahahahahaha

The lady doth laugh too much, methinks

Hahahahhahahhahhahaaha swe hahaahahahahahahahaha swe haahahhahahahahahahaha swe hahahahahahahaha

JuiceMan, Wbottom's feelings about children are nothing to laugh about

Prices will continue to go down for a long time. We are still far from the true bottom. I never really accepted the logic of paying 1 million for a studio, when 10 years before same studio sold for 100000!! Al this drop was meant to happen and will continue until logic will be back to NYC.

Best thing that happened from the recession, no more high heeled girl with a dog in their purse !

> The lady doth laugh too much, methinks

Well, when you are as wrong as Juice has been over the last few years, humor might be the only thing that can get you through...

"The bulls start talking about how medians are flawed because of the mix and also NYC is unique, and the bears put their faith in cold, hard numbers put out by Douglas Elliman. Fun! "

Well, to be fair, Miller Samuel. Those are the numbers the board has been going by for quite some time... but the Miller Samuel isn't posting the finalized data yet, so we have to run (for now) with what is in the article.

But, yeah, the irony is not lost... clearly the tide has turned on the bulls.

From urbandigs:

"Finally, I'm hesitant to talk about median price trends due to:

a) the lag in ACRIS sales filings, and
b) because median sales are highly exposed to what types of property are closing

If you have a few weeks of 3BR apts closing, followed by a few weeks of 1BR apts closing, you will see wild swings in median sales trends. Average sales trends are even more exposed to flaws and outliers. By reading today's reports, it may lead a buyer to think that Manhattan is currently a "buyers market" with lots of inventory and that prices fell 9.9% in the last 12 months. I must say, being in the field with my buyers and seeing the leading data using UrbanDigs.com tools, I don't think this is an accurate representation of today's market."

swe, for someone who has denounced the overall median repeatedly, you sure are quick to post and make grand statements when the median drops, huh? I wouldn't read too much into people not responding to your shtick either.

the SE repeated sale index has Feb 2011 up slightly from Feb 2010

Jan 2010 - 1.75k
Feb 2010 - 1.75k

Jan 2011 - 1.86k
Feb 2011 - 1.85k

In terms of general price action, right now, I think this jives more with what Im seeing today compared to a year ago rather than the -9.9% Q1-2010 to Q1-2011 signal.

"The bulls start talking about how medians are flawed because of the mix"

btw, that is also part of the reason I started posting the median by bedrooms number, too. Mix is/was definitely part of the action. But some of it is just a reversal of earlier mix changes.

So, pick your poison... if the mix change means the drop now is less that it looks, it also means the rise in prices was less than it looked, too....

"the SE repeated sale index has Feb 2011 up slightly from Feb 2010"

Swe doesn't believe the SE index, he is a median guy. He also has no interest in all of the great work digs has done to improve visibility and accuracy of the data. Why do you think swe ignores better measures and more accurate data?

"btw, that is also part of the reason I started posting the median by bedrooms number, too. Mix is/was definitely part of the action. But some of it is just a reversal of earlier mix changes."

This is just plain idiotic. What is the current range of two bedrooms for sale in Manhattan right now? $800k to $6M?

just a waiting game now. As soon as the medians turn to the positive, swe will hide because he will have no more malarky to spew. Tick tick tick

> Why do you think swe ignores better measures and more accurate data?

lol.

to juice, "better" data = data that proves him really really wrong as opposed to really really REALLY wrong.

And it is not better. I'm not against the concept of resale index, but streeteasy is way, way behind Shiller... from missing most of the market.... from the distance of deposit to close, which affects new condos most, to the apartment combo/separation problem, which streeteasy tries but misses... and then the whole not nearly as much data issue... which Juice keeps getting backward.
Third, there just isn't enough data (which Juice confuses with range, which actually is the oppposite

Thing is... and add it all up... its still way below where Juice said it would never go!

All the data says Juice was painfully wrong...

"This is just plain idiotic. What is the current range of two bedrooms for sale in Manhattan right now? $800k to $6M?"

Funny, it wasn't idiotic when Juice liked what it said. Then it says he was wrong, and he whines...

Poor, poor juice.

"if the mix change means the drop now is less that it looks, it also means the rise in prices was less than it looked, too...."

Sure, could well be. So what though? Your hypocrisy with all this is amusing. Perhaps the reason people don't bother responding for the most part is that your posts have been entirely predictable for what, 2+ years now? You're not interested in actual discussion - you're interested in pounding "the market is crashing!" into everyone's heads, ad nauseum.

Tick tick tick

I still don't understand:

a) why people make so much ado about monthly figures, when the sample size is so small;
b) why anybody would figure a mean, median, or mode to be a useful figure when the sample size is so small.

It's like trying to calculate VaR on one stock with one days' data: you ain't gonna get very much from that.

Face it: there are too many variables to control for in such small sample sizes - condominium, co-op, new dev, resale, tax exemptions, neighborhood - for those figures to mean anything.

They're really silly metrics.

The only useful metric is something Case-Shiller like, the same (or materially similar) units over time.

I agree with steve

The range of listings in Manhattan for 2 bedrooms is $125k to $27m and swe thinks by separating medians by number of bedrooms, this is somehow better. Lmao

"Funny, it wasn't idiotic when Juice liked what it said. Then it says he was wrong, and he whines..."

What funny is that I NEVER supported medians. I was a proponent of median price per square foot until streeteasy and digs came out with something better.

Not only is swe wrong but he lies. Poor poor swe, about to receive what has been coming to him and he just can't take it.

omg.

stevejhx - i agree with u completely. Im building tools that brokers can use for servicing clients, to track inventory movement (active, pending, offmkt), and they simply dont get it that a chart or trend is useless if sample size is too small. They want to be able to see how the Kips Bay, coop, 2bed, 2bth market between 1.1m and 1.2m is doing, even if the sample size is less than 10 units and a chart that is nothing but straight and vertical lines. Their answer to me when I explain why we built our systems to NOT get that granular is, "but its not useful if I cant customize it exactly how I want it"

some get it, some dont. very frustrating for me because Im spending lots of money to engineer the system correctly, that removes options dynamically if not enough data is available to even build a chart

I say let them customize it. If it comes back with a zero-dimensional answer, cool. People watch HGTV and think that if you renovate your home and get 75% of your money back, that you have a "75% return on investment." HAHAHAHA! You have a 25% loss.

And then they're struggling to buy a place smaller than their current rental that costs twice as much, and are "all in" on paying extra for extra risk and a lesser product, because they've been trained that renting is "throwing your money away."

Well, my research in Ft. Lauderdale is that there are two types of owners: the ones who got the memo and have set their prices back to the 2000 levels, and the ones who missed the memo and have languished on the market for years. "Throwing your money away" is spending $1 million on a place that now sells for $450k. That's throwing your money away.

Making money are the people on Income Property last night, who renovated half their house and now have a POSITIVE rental cash flow of several grand a month. That is, all their expenses for the entire house are paid for, they not only live for free, but make money on the deal. When you can do that again here, then real estate will be worth buying. Until then .... fuggetaboutit.

> What funny is that I NEVER supported medians.
> I was a proponent of median price per square foot

Which is, of course a median...

And more flawed... given the psfs just aren't accurate. Again, decent idea in theory, but very bad in actuality.

> Not only is swe wrong but he lies. Poor poor swe, about to receive what has been coming to him and he just can't
> take it.

Oh yes, I can't take the pain.

Being right about the Manhattan market tank, ouch, the pain!
Being right about stocks being the bet with the dow was at 6700!

Oh, the pain!

I can't take making money! Ouch!

Btw, juice, profiting is "receiv[ing] what has been coming to [me]"?

THANK YOU! Thats a very nice thing to say.

"just a waiting game now. As soon as the medians turn to the positive, swe will hide because he will have no more malarky to spew. Tick tick tick"

Wait, suddenly you now LIKE the medians again?

This is hillarious.

You're going to wait until they say something you like, then start promoting them? I love it. Can't say I'm surprised.

btw, tick all you want... I was right. Your claims of my 50% reduction were a load of bs. This is actually a little beyond what I predicted in terms of drop.

So, now I can continue to make the rent/buy decision. With some more stock winnings, and everything lower, my choice set is better than it ever was. Should I take a bow and thank all the folks who made that possible?

I like to look at JM's All Manhattan Condo/Coops Price Per Square Foot. Not a perfect perspective but at least normalized for apartment size.

Year Quarter All

2011 1 1,025
2010 4 1,058
2010 3 1,095
2010 2 1,051
2010 1 1,038
2009 4 1,051
2009 3 996
2009 2 1,056
2009 1 1,259
2008 4 1,183
2008 3 1,193
2008 2 1,322

Looks to me like a possible mild double-dip.

Topper, no, you're not listening to swe. The market is crashing! And dramatically so! Always take his advice.

"Wait, suddenly you now LIKE the medians again?"

Read what he wrote again. You don't seem to be getting it.

topper, again, I like the idea, but square footage is rarely correct...

(even though the results do match my predictions)

btw, now that topper pointed out that miller samuel data is updated (thanks)... turns out the $782,071 was in fact his number.... so 23.7% is in fact the decline from peak overall... and the biggest one we've had.

And here are the by size categories (manhattan median psf)...

Studios - 24.8% down from peak
1 Bed - 26.7%
2 Bed - 26.7%
3 Bed - 45.1%
4 Bed + 58.8%
Overall - 23.7%

SSO - 46.5% down from peak

" read what he wrote again. You don't seem to be getting it."

Lmao. Read? Swe doesn't read he distorts.

We'll see what swe has to say about medians when they turn. Only a matter of time. Then what?

Tick, tick, tick

Swe, how are you going to lie yourself out of the corner you painted yourself in? 125k to 27M is the range of two bedrooms and swe is using medians, priceless.

Juice, good point. Check the other thread (the "screams" thread he loves to pimp). He somehow "read" urbandigs' pending sales chart as indicating fewer people are buying recently. Amazing.

> Swe, how are you going to lie yourself out of the corner you painted yourself in?

My lie "apartments will not go down 10%"? Oh wait, uh, no, uh... that's YOURS.

Sorry, toots, I called it right...

> We'll see what swe has to say about medians when they turn. Only a matter of time. Then what?

Juice, for medians to "turn", first they have to have gone down, no?

Are you FINALLY going to admit you were wrong?

Come on, Juice, YOU CAN DO IT!

;-)

"125k to 27M is the range of two bedrooms and swe is using medians, priceless."

Juice, not so smart.... you're confusing medians with means again. Medians are used to account for outliers.... back to the textbooks for you!

Such rationalization... why not just admit you were wrong already?