UES v. UWS/Downtown -- 2nd Ave. Subway

UES = 4/5/6 trains on park and the 2nd ave subway by 2100

UWS = i can't count how many lines.... and in multiple locations

also, UES had Yorkville that is so far from the train that you need to catch a cab to get there. it drags the prices down. UES is thought of as stiff money. UWS is artsy money.

Also, classic 6's/7/s seem to be more expensive on the east side than on the west side (excluding CPW trophy building), so lots of families set their siights on the West side.

Also supply, not just demand. The upper east side has a significantly higher supply of apartments of all types than either the west side or any area of down town. This renders it more susceptible to shifts in demand. The east side has a huge supply of buildings built between the 1950s and 1980s. It has far worse subway access than either the westside or down town, and much worse park access than the west side.

Okay, but all of that has been true for decades, except the 2nd avenue subway. This is outperformance of 15% or more in a four or five-year period. Are the supply-demand curves in Manhattan so steep that this kind of shift can be caused by couple thousand people deciding to go with the UWS instead of the UES?

(I don't agree about the C6s and C7s, by the way -- those now seem more expensive to me on the west side too.)

happy - re: classic 7's - just do a search, pre-war, 3+ BR 2.5+ Bth, include "classic" in description, area of search UWS and UES (Carnegie Hill, Lenox). Once you exclude CPW and the newly condo 845 WEA, you don't really see UES classic 7's for under $3M, which you do on the UWS

"a couple thousand people deciding to go with the UWS instead of the UES"

yes.

With the informal crunching I've done over the years, the supply-demand curves for my niche market are that steep.

ph41,

did you actually do that search before instructing me to do it? that's not at all true.

1) Subway... for sure.
2) UES was historically the more expensive neighborhood, UWS got hot and caught up some of the way... and stays relatively hotter with the subway problems as well.

Of course, that's why the UES is probably the better long-term bet.

"Of course, that's why the UES is probably the better long-term bet."

Why would that be? Just because the UES is less expensive now doesn't mean it will suddenly increase in value at a greater rate than other neighborhoods. In fact, if the neighborhood continues to languish, it may under perform the rest of the market for years to come.

all areas you mention--uws, ues, and downtown--are composed of a diverse set of submarkets. prices in the west village are no more correlated to prices in the financial district than they are to prices in yorkville. likewise, the central park west market has more in common with the fifth avenue market than with the market even one block away on columbus avenue. to say something like "UES was historically the more expensive neighborhood" is not strictly accurate unless you stipulate what part of the UES. If you mean the corridor from park-fifth south of 96th street, then sure.

the west side from 59th to 96th (and up to columbia west of broadway) seems more uniformly gentrified than the UES from 59th to 96th, though the west side does still have some unpleasant pockets. east of third avenue the east side has a lot of dreary sectors. if you live anywhere east of lexington you are further from a major park than any location on the west side. and the east side is approximately twice the size of the west.

Yes, happyrenter I did the search

UWS below 96th street, UES not including Yorkville

go back to brooklyn.

well, something must be wrong with my computer then, since i get 10 pages of apartments on the upper east side ex yorkville with 3 or more bedrooms and 2.5 or more baths asking less than $3 million. including plenty of classic 7s.

it's impossible to search the UWS south of 96th using streetesy. thats not an option. but even going up to 110th street there are fewer on the west side.

Happy - did you specify "prewar"

"Why would that be? Just because the UES is less expensive now doesn't mean it will suddenly increase in value at a greater rate than other neighborhoods. In fact, if the neighborhood continues to languish, it may under perform the rest of the market for years to come."

Read the entire post, Juice. You missed the point.

If the subway is in fact some of the reason for the decline, and the negative is temporary... and when finished, it's a positive (anyone disagree with that?), then that would say AOTBE it would outpace other neighborhoods.

If the underperformance is because of some other permanent problem with the neighborhood, that would be a different argument... but noone has suggested or even inferred it.

But those with some patience will likely be (relatively) rewarded when many others just can't stomach the temnporary issues.

"If the subway is in fact some of the reason for the decline, and the negative is temporary... and when finished, it's a positive (anyone disagree with that?), then that would say AOTBE it would outpace other neighborhoods."

But who among us will be around in 2100 when it's "finished"?

happy - "If you mean the corridor from park-fifth south of 96th street, then sure"

In particular the block between fifth and madison from 65 to 80 is most beautiful and iconic and one of the most desirable locations anywhere in the world. If you are looking for investment – look no further. Not much ever comes on the market so probably doesn't affect oveall trends like ues vs. uws.

> But who among us will be around in 2100 when it's "finished"?

That's why I said.... patience.

Who knows how many more delays.... but odds are, you get paid to deal with the uncertainty others don't want.

"In particular the block between fifth and madison from 65 to 80 is most beautiful and iconic and one of the most desirable locations anywhere in the world. If you are looking for investment – look no further. Not much ever comes on the market so probably doesn't affect oveall trends like ues vs. uws."

It is also the most expensive (on a per-residence basis). Of course, that may not necessarily mean it is a good investment...