"Whenever you hear, 'this time is different....'"

oh it will crash, but only after it gets silly and stupid and goes parabolic. It didnt get stupid yet. Give us a push to 2,000-2100 with a major short squeeze from 1800-2100 or so, and then it gets crushed back down to 1200-1300..

maybe lower..

I don't think we are there yet, but certainly we're closer than before. Perhaps when interest rates rise above zero, the financing of Gold will be it's downfall.

For now, I'm surprised Gold Stocks have lagged so much. At current levels they are a far better investment than the actual metal. And Newmont now pegs it dividend to the spot price.

UD, 1300 is where we are now, after the stupid.

I just say, look at the chart:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA/charts

You're looking at a 36% rise in 6 months. If that's not parabolic, then nothing is. Based on a stagnant economy and high unemployment.

I think you'd be right if it were a broad-based rally, but it's not. It's on margin, read: Ponzi. Traders got the go-ahead from Bernake that they'd get free money at least for 2 more Fed meetings, so they borrow.

This crash is going to be gigantic.

great time to lock in some profits, take a little off the table.

I rarely agree with Kudlow, but he has now said the word: Stagflation.

Ud. Dude the way you talk. You'd think you're managing 10trillion in assets. So r u a money manager that sells re as a joke, or a real estate broker that dreams of managing money?

Oh nice pick up on the horse farm. So you think the bottom is closer in the 2nd home markets in the exburbs of nyc. But we r far far off from that in nyc. Thank you for that data point. Obtw. I think you are smart, but smart doesn't always equal success. It's the bare min that you need to walk the streets of nyc. Fk the train schedule fks up most midwesterners.

Is Vegas an exurb of NY?

just wrote about stagflation yesterday...did you read this steve?

http://www.urbandigs.com/2011/04/inflation_its_not_the_wage_kin.html

"You see, the inflation the fed really fears is the kind where wages start to spiral out of control due to an overheating economy resulting in higher prices everywhere being passed down to consumers. We don't really see that today do we; in fact, the labor market is still quite pressured if you look at U6 unemployment figures. What you do see today are the unintended consequences of policy actions taken by the fed/govt: that is, higher food costs, higher energy prices, higher health care costs, higher commodities across the board, higher taxes, etc..all the stuff that hurts profit margins and squeezes consumers wallets.

Seems like a stagflation situation to me, caused by a bust in housing & credit of gargantuan proportions and followed by dangerous macroeconomic policies.

As for surging commodity prices, the best thing for high oil/gas prices is in fact higher oil and gas prices. At some point you will see massive demand destruction as consumers no longer are able to absorb market rates. The question remains 'when' that happens and the speculators take it too far. "

w67th - lol, im a former trader that couldnt take the grind of minute to minute trading anymore and fell in love with real estate. I NEVER want to manage money! I would like to earn what they earn, especially the guys that are fund of funds managers and whose only job is that the real fund manager is not a scam. But I never want to manage money and Im not smart enough too either. My training and experience was in momentum trading.

I bought because I like the value in markets between an hour and 90 minutes or so from Manhattan and I always wanted a farmhouse type getaway. After years of looking, and realizing that most of the inventory didnt match what we wanted, we finally found one that did..so we jumped on it. I think we got a good deal on it.

I don't see the Fed focusing on inflation at all, at least the inflation covered by the CPI. The Fed is
is actively engaged in pushing up asset prices(primarily housing) to help the banks out. Everything else they speak of is bull, as action speak louder than word.

Of course with all that liquidity sloshing around it's winding up pushing up Gold, Stocks, Food, Junk bonds, and is going to anything that isn't connected with job creation.

"What you do see today are the unintended consequences of policy actions taken by the fed/govt"

exactly

gold up another $33 today right now..get a few weeks of $75-$100 moves and your right near $2,000. And again, it doesn't feel like a break out yet to me. I dont think the masses are all over it and the I definitely dont think the major short squeeze happened yet. It just never goes down. Im sure this is the kiss of death as I write this. Full disclosure though, I sold most of my gold holdings in low 1400s and high 1300s, from buying in mid 2007 and 2008. So I am not taking that much advantage of this latest run which is killing me because it feels like a pop is so close

I'm not one to buy into the "fiat currency" argument as you know, because inflation / deflation are actually more severe under currencies backed with metals (or anything else). That said, I do see stagflation & I think the Fed sees stagflation, but they painted themselves into a corner tat they can't get out of.

I've never owned gold & I never will - its price doesn't really affect anything as it's not used in anything. Silver, palladium, and platinum, on the other hand, do. Oil is what I'm watching - almost $114 a barrel now, up 4% in 2 days.

I'm short the market and have been short since about Dow 11,500. It's painful, but it's play money (most everything is in cash right now, b/c I don't trust what the Fed is doing), but I'm sure that when this bursts I'll make quite a handsome profit. There are signs that things are topping out - for the first time in about 2 months, with the exception of Japan, some of my shorts are actually making money. Still in the red, but up. The higher the market goes right now, the happier I am; it means the crash, when it occurs, will be more violent when the plug is pulled on the free money. Even today volume is thin, meaning that this is not a broad-based sustainable rally: compare it to the margin figures when they're released, and you'll see where the money is coming from.

This is exactly the doomed policy that Japan followed when its housing bubble burst 10ish years ago, and it still hasn't gotten out of that rut. The reason is beyond the control of the government: people are deleveraging, and no amount of free money will get them to releverage if it's not in their best interest. Instead, we get what we have today: asset bubbles, which cause significant damage to the economy.

BTW on your article: the policy the Fed is following right now is NOT Keynesian policy. It's from Page 1 of Milton Friedman. Keynes advised not to tighten credit, but never argued for flooding the market with it if the market had nothing to do with it. Instead, he argued for increased governments spending, because the money is guaranteed a specific use. In other words, these bubbles don't happen.

Let's hear it for Spot Corn!

not sure if qe2 is Monetarist, but its closer to that than Keynsian.
But Milton Friedman talked about money vs velocity. QE2 is all about displacing bonds with cash and watching it displace other investments.

didnt you say to sell gold (like all the other bobbleheads ala seekingalpha) like 2 months ago...

..if it's at all time high now, wouldn't you have missed out on the past run??

i do agree gold may be look like a bubble (since 09 actually), but your call was off 2 mnths ago no?

if you sold iau 2 months or so ago, well ya just missed out on a good run..

how's your rental website doing?

QEII is a disaster: stocks up 4% in April alone, on no good news. Housing prices are down & will stay there. Today there was a lot of volume, though, twice the average - end of month, I suppose, locking in gains.

This will crash hugely, and before the end of the year - before summer, I think. In fact, given that oil closed at around $114 a barrel, when it should be trading at about $70 on a supply and demand basis, I think you're going to start to hear noise from the Fed about changing direction:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bets-oil-will-rise-past-110-flirt-with-record-2011-04-29?dist=afterbell

I have actually never seen EVERYTHING rise like this for such a prolonged period of time, especially when there is nothing underlying it but cheap money. With these oil prices other, smarter countries, that look at inflation in a way, say, that normal human beings do, will be raising rate faster, and will force the US to do the same.

"Core inflation" does not include a) energy; b) food; or c) housing (as an asset price). Well, what else is there?

And here it will start:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-29/gold-rises-to-record-silver-heads-for-biggest-monthly-advance-since-1983.html

"Silver Surges 28% in April"

This cannot last.

so stevie, this was you...

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3199-who-listened-to-mmafia

"You know far more about the nature of gold than I do. I just know that it's not of much good to industry, and I don't want to own it."

....3 years ago...

i'm not a gold fan either (call me when you can depreciate it)... but let's be honest, you (and i to some extent) missed out on a HUGEE gold run these past couple years...

..you didn't "call it," you missed out..

you can't factor in sentiment in your excel spreadsheet.

how's the rental website?

> I'm short the market and have been short since about Dow 11,500.

Nope.

10,300, at least. He was yelling pretty loudly about that one, and the market was in the 10-10.5 range. It was definitely not over 11k.

Once again, he's trying to change his calls after the fact.

swe, agreed look at the link i provided with his gold "prediction"....

....wonder if he shorted gold then...

....3 years ago, when he kept calling its sudden crash when it did the reverse these past couple years, and i don't even like gold but you can't change the numbers...

everything is hind sight and ever changing with this kid...

...the only thing that's constant is his commission from the rental wesbite he runs ...smart dude scaring buyers (ala julias of the board) to rent for life though...

makin a killing in comi$$$$hhh...rents up, face down.

> everything is hind sight and ever changing with this kid...

I know, I've been saying it for over a year now. He'll do complete 180s and pretend he was that way all along.

don't know what your point is hol - that's exactly what I said, & exactly what I said I said. I don't know what your problem is.

Nope, SWE, wrong again. If that were true, I would be wiped out. But it's not: my last short was at 11,300. And in any case it would depend on what I shorted, which I never said - suffice it to say that half of my positions made money today, and overall it was about a wash.

I never thought the Dow would go over 11,500 - which is what you yourself said. I'm not one to predict bubbles, and I've stuck to my positions and will continue to stick to them. The 52-week low on the Dow was 9,614; today it hit 12,832. That is a 33% rise since July 2010, ALL of which happened since QEII, in late August.

If you think it's sustainable, then buy more. I say the market is going to crash, and crash hard. The problem with a Ponzi scheme - which is what QEII is - is that once the music stops, EVERYBODY is left without a chair.

You laughed very hard when I shorted the market in March 2010, predicting the exact same thing would happen: from March 10 May I made 30%. I was in a little early this time, but no way I'm worried: if you think that silver is going to stay at this price, then buy more.

Every chart looks EXACTLY alike: free QEII money! It will not last.

Here's more crash material:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42827535/

my point is you said gold was a bad play 3 years ago, when charts up to now show the exact reverse..

...and i say this as a non-fan of gold myself...

..but your prediction 3 years until today (real time, here) was 100% incorrect.

I don't agree with all of his arguments, but Kudlow is right:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42788366

This will not end pretty.

now you're just repeating yourself to try and cover your embarrassing gold "prediction" 3 years ago...to follow suit..

remember this embarrassing "prediction" by you 3 years ago??

"You know far more about the nature of gold than I do. I just know that it's not of much good to industry, and I don't want to own it."

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3199-who-listened-to-mmafia

...3 years ago.. how telling time is mr. oracle

IAU iShares Gold Trust(ETF)

4/29/11 $15.27
4/29/08 $8.71 (3 years ago, during your gold "prediction")

That's 75% return... did you beat 75% in the same time frame??

..and I say this hating gold in general myself

How's the rental web$$$$$$ite??

;)

cramer, should i buy bear sterns?

lulziezzz

I said the same thing I always say, hol - I don't own gold, I will never own gold. But Cramer is recommending it right now:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42807610

noo... you didn't just say you don't own gold you called it a BAD investment..

heck you made a thread about it 5 months ago, can't get more embarrassing than that...

Why gold is a bad investment
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/23710-why-gold-is-a-bad-investment

..not a fan of gold play myself, but to say gold was gonna crash 3 years ago, when IAU went up 75% in that time period..

..yes, 75% up, and you call it a "bad" investment is not exactly "calling it" in my book...

IAU iShares Gold Trust(ETF)

4/29/11 $15.27 (today)
4/29/08 $8.71 (3 years ago, during your gold "prediction")

..didn't answer the question, did ya beat 75% in this time frame...the money that you didn't put in gold during that timeframe, aside from rent and your rental web$$$ite, where else did ya park it?

;)

"I have actually never seen EVERYTHING rise like this for such a prolonged period of time, especially when there is nothing underlying it but cheap money. "

no one has...hence concern is warranted. lets all at least admit that nobody, even the fed, knows how this will end. thats the scary part

>heck you made a thread about it 5 months ago

a quick search reveals one even longer ago in September 2008: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5195-cramer-says-to-buy-gold

today I heard someone saying that gold is still $800 away from its inflation adjusted all time high...last time I heard that kind of analysis was when oil was on its way to 140...I personally wouldnt be surprised to see gold keep going

I maintain still that gold is a bad investment. In fact, it's not an investment at all. Why anybody would want to own it is beyond me.

UD - it's plain how all of this must end: it's a Ponzi scheme at this point. I fully agree that QEI was necessary, and a good idea: it staved off Armageddon. Look at every - EVERY - chart for financial assets since September 2010, and they all show the same pattern: skyrocketing. There is no underlying economic reason for that to have happened, and it has happened simultaneously with low volumes and ever-increasing margin. It simply can't remain where it is; as soon as the money is withdrawn, it will start to deflate.

The Fed has followed these same disastrous policies since the dot.com bust, and the same thing happens each and every time. The same thing happened in Japan, and they're still suffering the consequences. While in Manhattan it's not such a problem, the price of gas is killing most people, as is the price of food. The vast majority of the country don't have huge amounts of assets, and basically live from paycheck to paycheck. 6% CPI is deadly, and it's killing the rest of the world, as well.

Again, if it were powered by some amazingly good jobs or growth numbers, I'd be all in on the short-term bull side, and I would have covered my short positions long ago. The reason I didn't is because I don't see how this can last, because it can't last. QEII is counterproductive, and it is generating STAGFLATION. I remember stagflation from the 1970's and 1980's: it wasn't pretty. You just can't throw money at a problem, see that the problem is actually getting worse, then throw more money at it.

You'll start to hear subtle changes in the Fed's opinion in the next month or two, I think, as oil starts to approach $120 a barrel, and every other country in the world is forced to raise interest rates to counter the effects of Bernakeism.

I maintain still that gold is a bad investment. In fact, it's not an investment at all. Why anybody would want to own it is beyond me.

$300-$1500 and despite that an inability to re-examine.

steve...... this time IS different, because by definition EVERY time is different. Whatever occurs at this instant ceases to exist the moment it ceases to exist. Patterns play themselves out, sometimes only perceptible to the eye if viewed from a distance; the further out one stands to view, the more the patterns appear and the more they look "the same."

And by the time one gets to the distance where everything looks all the same, it is irrelevant.

No two recessions are exactly alike. No two bubbles are exactly alike. No two crashes are exactly alike.

By the way, has anyone given any thought to what effect the royal wedding will have on real estate?

the only thing steve is that given the size of the policy response, unprecedented and never before seen, we just dont know how long and how high some assets may rise before that crash. Thats all Im saying. I stopped playing short side 8 months ago or so, at huge losses that erased all my profits from shorting the crash in 2007 and 2008. I would love to get short now, I really would, but we may rise to 1500 before we crash

stevie, more rhetoric, without numbers..

yet you've yet to answer the question..

did you beat 75% returns?

IAU iShares Gold Trust(ETF)
4/29/11 $15.27 (today)
4/29/08 $8.71 (3 years ago, during your gold "prediction")

..and i say this as a non-gold player..

did you beat 75% in the same time frame from this "bad" investment???

...simple yes or no question.. ;)

Economy continues to improve like it or not.
My favorite junk bond indicator continues to point up for now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX+Interactive#symbol=SHIAX;range=5y

As regards to gold, i see at least 1,650 in the next few weeks...while dollar should crack the 08 lows. Until that happens, buy every dip.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

> Nope, SWE, wrong again. If that were true, I would be wiped out. But it's not: my last short was at 11,300.

You think the fact that you bought more shorts after the ones you bought at 10,300 makes it better?

lol

> I never thought the Dow would go over 11,500 - which is what you yourself said

No, I didn't. Read where you think I said that again.

> stevie, more rhetoric, without numbers..

exactly. More why he *should* have been right, hoping you don't realize how much he lost.