where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

"lets go you wussies lets see who else needs a good lashing bring it fools"--gumby

Gumby just out of curiosity how old are you? I got you pegged as a recent grad sharing a rental unit with 3 guys. When you get back to your rental dump do you look forward to twisting and snapping wet towels at your roommates buttocks.

Juiceman:

I did (out of curiousity) look at the Plaza units. Mind you, on a s.f. basis, they were almost TWICE what the intital prices were (+/-) at 15 CPW.

IMHO, I thought the entire Plaza project was sorely lacking, and that the pricepoints in that building would definitely come back to haunt those who were buying as an investment. It's hard for me to articulate this well, but I can only try to explain to you that when I heard about 15 CPW very early on as a concept, and then received enough detail to form an opinion as to whether the situation warrented my investment, it seemed crytal clear from the beginning that it was a slam dunk, and potentially one of the great building projects in Manhattan in the past decade or so. I just did not remotely feel that way about the Plaza project. I shied away almost immediately, and further investigation on my part only further confirmed my suspicions.

I think that in the long run 15 CPW will (perhaps) be the nicest feather in my (modest) NYC real estate investment cap. I wouldn't of felt remotely that way about the Plaza had I chosen to invest.

Here is just another example of a RE Brokers observation. I do believe that there is a real low inventory crisis in Manhattan for decent apts with decent locations. I do believe this inventory shortage will only get worse and drive up prices for apts in this category.

Inventory is Low...This is What I Need...Are You Listening Sellers?

Instead of the loosening of inventory that I had so hoped for this busy winter season, a further contraction seems to be a harsh reality. So in the sincere hope of procuring some very special properties to bring to market, here's a quick list of what some of my buyers are hoping to find (please be mindful that we have seen EVERYTHING currently on the market so if it appears on the following wish list, it isn't on the market...yet!):

* Classic 6 with light and views on the Upper West Side (high 60's to 90th Street) for $2.4M or less.
* Large 2BR/2BTH (1400sf or larger) with stunning views and doorman for $2.5M or less.
* 2000sf or larger 3/4BR on Upper West Side on high floor with stunning views and doorman for $4M or less.
* Single or Multi family townhouse from 67th to 75th Street, between CPW and Columbus for $12M or less. Willing to do work.
* Large 2BR/2BTH (1200sf or larger) below 14th Street (Lower 5th Ave...Gold Coast) for $1.4M or less.
* Large Prewar 1BR/1BTH on Upper West Side with doorman, light and views for under $850K and reasonable maintenance (not $2 per sf).
* Upper West Side 2BR/2BTH (1000sf or larger) with light for $1M or less. Seeking best "value."

spunky and juiceboy you are really quite entertaining.......i just wish i had your great insight into the workings of the economy and manhattan real estate market then i could be on your guys team......until then i guess i will have to wallow in my ignoranse and hope to someday just someday be as entillegnt as you both......than and only than will i be able to achieve my purpose......someday.....

Gumby if the Dollar keeps declining don't you feel that will make Manhattan more attractive to foreign buyers? Just curious what your thoughts were or do you feel the US economy is in such bad shape that any investment in the US would not be prudent? You do bring up some valid points and I do respect your opinion
I really do.

I don't know about many of the specs/price ranges in spunky's post (from truegotham.com), but I do know that these two
* Large 2BR/2BTH (1200sf or larger) below 14th Street (Lower 5th Ave...Gold Coast) for $1.4M or less.

* Upper West Side 2BR/2BTH (1000sf or larger) with light for $1M or less. Seeking best "value."

Aren't out there for those prices. These buyers' wish lists seem unrealistic. If prices are softening, they aren't softening nearly this much.

spunky - rather than ripping off a post from TrueGotham.com why don't you paste the link and give Heddings the credit he deserves for his work. You havn't mentioned him or his site in any of the posts where you've ripped something from his site. Are you a thief or just too stupid to know what to do ?

Look spunky was right, finally some appreciation in this market:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/181441-coop-250-w27th-chelsea-manhattan

What do you expect from Ardor Realty. Reality?

I wonder if it is suppose to be 725K. Would be about right for that neighborhood, actually reasonalble.

i've given it some thought last night and i just couldn't sleep....to buy not to buy the pros and cons....i finally turned on the tv and there it was ...... the answer....these two twins were telling me the pros of buying real estate.....the money the cars they were driving (even though they are little people their cars were set up so they could reach the wheel and such)....i am sold.....

as if that weren't enough then later this old guy comes on and he starts telling me of the riches to be had in the real estate market and how i can sit at home and grow rich while my investment properties work for me.....for me while i do nothing.....nothing

i am sold i need some help navigating the world of the real estate market in manhattan.....urban you seem like the most honest of the group but that is suspect....i think that is your angle...so pass on you.......i think i will go with will on this he seems to be just the right mix.....sorry juice...still pissed about the hooked on phonics crack.....and spunky.....i just don't like your name it makes me feel dirty.

so how bout it will some shopping this weekend?

i hear if you buy real estate you can retire in 5 years

Thestreets (a.k.a captain asshole) I did indicate it was an observation from a broker not my observation. Yes the broker came from TrueGotham website. Are you now happy captain aHole?

great post gumby I think you are right on target with this. Please keep us updated.

gumby any thoughts on the state of the economy would be appreciated. Looks like you the only one who really gets. I really mean it.

I meant to say gumby is that it looks like you are the only one who really gets it. I really do mean it.
I am sure we are all looking forward to some of your economic forecasts and predictions. They are right on the money.

stocks are up spunky...all our problems are gone! yayyyy

Gumby wrote--"i am sold i need some help navigating the world of the real estate market in manhattan.....urban you seem like the most honest of the group but that is suspect....i think that is your angle...so pass on you......."

Urban why does gumby feel you are a phony. I don't understand. Anyone who is anyone should know you are deeply sincere.

Gumby please explain for we all love Urban

ehh, i can really care less

spunky your are missing my point i'm on board no telling of gloom and doom.....all is well....let's buy us some condos.......

as for urban.....he just makes too much sense.....i don't like that.....i want to buy and nobody is stopping me......

the economy will recover....the usa is the greatest nation in the world and we all have credit cards to spend spend spend the consumer is much deeper than anyone thought......

now fidi or tribecca that's what i want to know.....i figure fidi.....lots of condos being built down here.....maybe william beaver.....looks like a good move to me......any thoughts or pearls of wisdom.....not the other pearls spunkalicious.....please i'm on the edge of my seat....

william beaver house is 85% sold and doesnt have many options left or negotiating leverage for buyers so close to fully sold. Finishes are just ok. Layouts are a bit strange. But prices are certainly attractive compared to other new devs.

Ill try to make less sense moving forward.

urbandigs, any thoughts on Buffet's move to take over some muni liabilities from bond insurers? I've heard everything from, no big deal to a big step for liquidity.

malraux, interesting. Thanks for the insight. I am highly envious of anyone holding a piece of 15 CPW. It is indeed a fantastic project.

As for the Plaza, it may not have been as attractive from an investment perspective (and I wouldn’t want to live there personally), but I still love it. Maybe it is nostalgia or the new copper trim on the windows, but I can’t stop looking at it.

it is a big deal in the light that it COULD, and I stress could because nothing happened yet, forestall a potential financial shock when downgrades come. I'm pretty much in the camp that no matter what happens, downgrades of bond insurers are coming. Its just a matter of when and its clear there is collusion right now to delay this with the hopes that they can avoid it. But how could the banks who are in such trouble and seeking cash infusions themselves, going to now bail out the insurers. A farce.

To answer your question, here is the key element. The buffet offer is for the muni book and NOT the CDO portion of the biz! And its the CDO portion thats the problem! I dont see why the insurers would do this as muni biz is fine, and profitable. Good for Buffet. Even with the deal, downgrades will come as now insurers ONLY have the problem portion of the biz.

Look, the problem goes way beyone CDO's from subprime rmbs. That is why you are seeing SO much stimulus, fed cuts, bail out plans, economic stimulus packahes, fed term auctions, rate freezes, foreclosure freezes, etc. even before we are proven to be in a recession. Name one other time in recent history such proactive measures were taken. What happened to subprime, is no happening with alt-a, prime, credit cards, helocs, options arms, cosi/cofi, auto loans, etc..And there is insurance on these securities too. Its so damn complex and Buffet will NEVER TOUCH what he doesnt understand. So, he will make a play for a simple, profitable business from a company that is in such distress.

Another short term jolt on the talk. Every rally these days is on stimulus plans, bail out rumours, and rate cut rumors. Wont change the fact that coming economic news is going to be bad, and more write downs are coming for financials. Its inevitable. Question is how long does this process take to play out the credit cycle. I say 1-2 more years. I would get into stocks after the capitulation occurs, whenever that may be. And we didnt even discuss OUTSIDE the US! If you think we were the only ones to do this, your totally wrong. Trust me, global problems are coming in this sector as well.

let me just detail this a bit more: "it is a big deal in the light that it COULD, and I stress could because nothing happened yet, forestall a potential financial shock when downgrades come."

What I mean is, now that we know this offer, if downgrades come say tomorrow or the next day, the markets will not see the level of stress that it may have otherwise have seen with a trickle effect of disruptions in the muni bond markets.

Wow--I come back from vacation and this thread is still going on and and Noah is still addicted to referencing his already made point.

Awesome.

urbandigs, to your point, this is a signal of a downgrade and not and if but a when. I agree it doesn't make sense for a bond insurer to accept based on the fact that is the healthy side of their business, but it really doesn't matter if they accept or not does it? As I understand it, Buffet will be seen as a safety net with or without a deal going through. All of this seems a bit like smoke and mirrors to me but hey, if it helps market confidence, I’m all for it.

eah, in fairness to urbandigs, I asked for his opinion and he graciously gave it. If you want to give me shit for asking the question, feel free.

JuiceMan...lighten up...take a holiday. I was kidding about the last two posts above mine where he clearly reread his brilliant analysis and realised he needed refine his point.

eah, no worries, I'm a laid back guy. I actually had a serious question for you. How did you start investing in real estate internationally? Was it something that just happened or had you planned it out that way?

I had property in the US and decided to follow a system of buying a property a year. In order to not be overexposed in one area I started looking for other cities in the US. Over time it clicked that I wasn't regionally exposed but that investing in one country is just not wise. The first international properties were easy since I lived in Europe for a long time and had language/regional knowledge. Asia was tough and not something I tried until I had bank contacts that I could call on to see what developments were credible. So far, HSBC has been a great source; as has RBS.

JuiceMan - "eah, no worries, I'm a laid back guy."

I hear Kim Jung Il is a pretty laid back kinda guy too.

At this point all I care about is trying to be # 1000.

c'mon Streets, Kim Jung il? He's no dentist!

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