where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

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of you didn't think of it........

CSN got number 1000. Nice timing man.

And Dumby didn't.

it's always funny when someone tries to be a smartass and just blows it like that ...

I would just like to say as the OP, that I'm absolutely kvelling right now......

back to our regularly scheduled programming.

I had to google kvelling

It's okay, JuiceMan - my wife is a total shiksa and she had to learn that term, too!

All I care about is being # 2000

According to gumby's brilliant execution above, he's shooting for 10,000.

ok folks i've had my fun with you all and this little blog.....don't bother posting to me i won't be reading it any more have fun!

it was fun seeing how much people want to prove themselves to the world on here and how much knowledge they have (or don't)...but just keep posting to each other in your little world and have your fun......me i have to go back to the real world........

the best is spunky you will have to give a response......love it you slave to the blog......

bye bye

I think Gumby is a little upset that he got bitch slapped by CSN in his efforts to be number 1,000.

JuiceMan ... doesn't this sound familiar:

Bernanke Stymied as Rate Cuts Fail to Lower Borrowing Costs

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve's interest-rate
cuts last month have failed to lower borrowing costs for many
companies and households, increasing the chance of further
reductions from the central bank.
Companies are paying more to borrow now than before the Fed
reduced its benchmark rate by 1.25 percentage point over nine
days in January, based on data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.
Rates on so-called jumbo mortgages, those above $417,000, have
increased in the past month, making it tougher to sell
properties and risking further price declines.
``It's the clogging up of the credit markets that worries
me most,'' Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein said in
an interview in New York. ``The Fed has done a lot of cutting,
the question is whether it's going to get the traction that it
did in the past.''

< ... more on Bloomberg ...>

I just have to keep re-reading that. It's like as if Merrill just did a cut and paste of my posts to write the article. What do you have to say for yourself now JuiceMan ? (I suggest you say nothing)

yes that was very funny. Congrats CSN. Nice try Gumby. If you got anything out of this thread it should be 1000 is the next number after 999 and 1001 comes after a 1000.
Once again congrats to CSN for being the 1000 post and proving to Gumby that he is truly 1000% a moron.

also from Bloomberg ...

``The increase in credit spreads has sort of worked against
our policy,'' San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen told
reporters at her bank yesterday. ``The fact that the spreads
went up so dramatically really resulted in an effective
tightening of financial conditions that our cuts were partly
meant to address.''

-----

Hold on a second San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen ! JuiceMan says rates are going DOWN not UP!

JuiceMan, you need to call the Fed President NOW ! Clearly they are confused and need your excellent market data before they cut rates again and upset the economic balance !

wow, over 1,000 posts..Im betting productivity #'s go down next month.

Streets - to talk reality, and look past the drug induced Buffet offer rally yesterday, its fairly scary out there. Corporate spreads are so damn wide right now. Look at commercial MBS spreads. Everyone down plays it, but everything is tightening. Fed's Yellen is just acknowledging it. Rate cuts will help wall street, for a week, but this problem needs to play out. Yet, it seems gov't, fed, bail out talks, etc. are bringing everything but kitchen sink in to save the day AND WE ARENT EVEN IN A RECESSION! Things that make you go hmmmmmmmm.

Did you catch Paulson publicly admit yesterday that, "Is the worst over for subprime & defaults? No, the worst is just beginning"!

Streets, you are trying so hard to dig out of that hole of yours, are the grandma’s not buying penny stocks today? Since you are once again bending the story to fit your pathetic excuse for an argument, let me remind everyone what the original discussion was about. The topic was "are rates near historic lows". You said no and you were wrong. Get over it. Why you are now spinning the story that I was predicting what rates would do for the next year, I have idea. But I'll play your little game. Do me a favor and copy the portion of my post above where I said rates would be going down. Then, find the portion of your post above where you said rates will be going up. I think it will be clear after that little exercise (once again) that you are completely full of shit and are grasping at straws to regain what little credibility you had.

How is team asshole by the way Streets, have any other members besides gumby?

why is GS slowly deteriorating? The best brokerage on the street is at 178, and down even in up markets? Write down coming?

JuiceMan - I'm not talking about any predictions or forecasts in that bloomberg article. The article makes statements about the current observed state of the market NOW. Statements that I made and you disagreed with.

Read this again from the bberg article:

"Rates on so-called jumbo mortgages, those above $417,000, have
increased in the past month, making it tougher to sell
properties and risking further price declines."

'HAVE' - past tense.
Mortgage rates are NOW higher than they WERE IN THE PAST and it is harder NOW to sell a home that it was IN THE PAST. Nothing future looking. No opinions. Simply statements of fact by industry experts and federal reserve presidents.

ILMJNY (the bankrate index) is up another 10bps since we last discussed this.

The Federal Reserve Presidents, the Treasury Secretary, the analysts, the traders and the market commentators who all say high credit spreads are a crippling force in the economy are wrong. JuiceMan is right - mortgage rates are near historic lows. Why wont they just listen to him ? What is their problem ?

JuiceMan - You are the single most arrogant individual I have ever come across.

Why is unemployment at historic low levels? Why is the stock market up today. Why is the inventory of Manhattan RE lower than it was last year. Why are prices of Manhattan RE higher on a psf basis higher than last February? Why is Urbandigs always just posting negative information?

"Rates on so-called jumbo mortgages, those above $417,000, have increased in the past month, making it tougher to sell properties and risking further price declines."

How in the hell does this statement help you prove your point? Jumbo mortgages have increased over the past month? Ok, we are up another 10bps since we last discussed this. That is a cup of coffee over 30 years. Not to mention, we were having a discussion at a point in time. I said nothing about the direction rates were going. Why are you even bringing this up? Rates are still near historic lows moron! 6.25 for a jumbo 30 is a really good friggan rate, 6.50 is as well, so is 6.75. Wake up Streets! Read the interest rate post. Read a book. Do something, but stop posting this malarkey.

Dude let it go.

spunky - you never cease to amaze. In your mind, there are no trends, there are no red flags, things just happen because they are meant to be. And every dataset is 100% accurate, not lagging, and not flawed. And Manhattan real estate CAN NEVER go down.

Do you realize, that real estate MUST rise about 7-10% a year over a 4-5 year period, in order for gains to offset transaction fees for the deal? Do you understand that some people do not live in their home for 10+ years and that some people actually do sell a few years after buying. Ask these people how they did and are selling now because something changed in their life. Your problem is you live in your own world, a world blinded by real fundamentals. And anyone that discusses what is REALLY going on in this world, is your enemy. Most people own their home for a period of 5-6 years, not 15. I just love how unbiased discussion of a deteriorating macro economy, in your mind, equates that person to be a fear mongerer. Look at equity markets, down some 1200 points in 2 months, and YET, you ask why market is up 90 points right now.

Do you even see how foolish you sound? Obviously the markets are trading as if macro economy fundamentals mean something.

Noah, I posted something nice on your blog.

eah don't worry if it contradicts him he won't post it.

urbandigs still trying to peddle negative blogs so he can convince his 1 or 2 clients to lower their asking price.

yea, I've been awful with credit for images, and will try my best to correct that moving forward for all contributors of content on urbandigs; mainly Jeff, Christine, & I.

Spunky - to answer your question, futures spiked on retail sales data. However to show you that markets trade irrationally, the dataset was not all that positive. Exclude gas & autos, and data is more modest. Streets happens to be right. Problems are in credit markets, fueled by housing slump. Inventories nationwide are at 12 month's supply and that does NOT take into account cancellations that get returned to inventory (cancellation rates are scarily high at builders). Whether you truly give weight to this or not is a very valid question. Manhattan is not experiencing this pain, but will feel the pain that is really going on this country via side effects! You are already seeing it. So many brokers I speak to are citing such slow business right now and major caution from prospective buyers. Front line info. Yes, there are buyers out there, yes properties priced right are selling, but NO prices paid are NOT 5% higher than last year when accounting for $$$ put into a place and last years comps.

Caution over jobs, stocks, affordability, and future appreciation of Manhattan real estate are widespread. Blame it on me if you want to. Its a confidence strain, nothing more at this point.

Outside our city, is very different, and its ugly! Houses are asking 25% lower than comps 2 years ago (trust me, Im trying to sell my mothers house on LI right now, and there ar NO BUYERS and plenty of fierce seller competition battling each other to be the lowest deal on the market)...that is what Im concerned ultimately affecting us here as these problems will lead to more credit woes, more losses, more stock pain, and its not just in our country! Its global. But that will take time to surface. I truly hope Im wrong spunky. I really do. I hope for a soft landing, but that is a very very difficult thing to maneuver.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080213/economy.html

ha..expect nothing less from you spunky.

""The increase in credit spreads has sort of worked against our policy," San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen told reporters at her bank yesterday."

-------

San Francisco Fed President? Who cares about what she has to say? This is New York. Did the Fed president of Tribeca, Soho or the West Village say anything about mortgage rates increasing? No? My point exactly.

I was referring content not images. But good work on both.

thx...Jeff's posts have been very timely lately if you go back and read his stuff.

Its amazing how people try to connect macro events to Manhattan neighborhoods, like they are directly related.

I have been reading this thread, and while I am not an economist and certainly my crystal ball fails to reveal what will happen in the future, I do know one thing:

This market is probably not one in which to be speculating. Be it in NYC or in Miami. If you need a place to live in NYC and you intend to buy, today is as good a time to buy as it will be in a year. Will you get a better deal in a year? Maybe. If you buy today, you can fix it up and live in your own place and build equity. If you don't buy, you can rent, and build someone else's equity. Over time, the difference will not be significant. You can not "time" the market.

If you think you will only be in a place for a short time, clearly rent. There is no advantage to buying, I would argue that to be true even if you find a good deal. The costs associated with buying and selling will likely eat right through whatever savings you might realize with the "good deal".

If you are looking to invest right now? More power to you... and I wish I had your courage.

shiers let me explain why that is important:

credit risk rises ---> credit spreads widen as investors bear more risk ---> fed cuts rates but ineffective; spurs commodity inflation ---> financial conditions tighten ---> capital costs more to borrow/raise ---> spending/growth tightens ---> as spending slows, growth slows, corporations get defensive ---> jobs cut to lower costs, spending cutbacks ---> corporate earnings fall on spending cutbacks ---> stocks adjust ---> negative wealth effect ---> consumer tapped, confidence falls ---> consumer spending falls ---> retail earnings/data falls ---> recession proven afterwards

and on and on and on and on. Now, does this mean nothing? Now it may not work exactly like this, but you can certainly take widening credit spreads to mean their is still dysfunction in credit markets and trickle it down to other aspects of economic cycles. Study past cycles. There are those that view it this way, and there are those that say, ehh, that wont affect me!

I guess you feel confident, which is fine. But trust me, widening credit spreads is indicative of the fragile environment we are in right now and that means events will continue to play out in near term!

urbandigs - I was joking. Apparently, it wasn't very funny.

in that case it was..Ill have myself a chuckle. Dammit spunky, your ruining my ability to sense sarcasm!

Today Urbandigs writes "why is GS slowly deteriorating? The best brokerage on the street is at 178, and down even in up markets? Write down coming?"

Okay genius.

whats your point? oh wait, you have none

Today, spunky writes "Okay genius," perhaps expecting it to serve as a successful rebuttal of a noteworthy comment.

Okay genius.

billshiers - When I first read your comment I also failed to see the humor in it. I actually thought you were serious. You see, Spunky and JuiceMan (SpunkJuice) have indeed ruined it for everyone with their ridiculous arguments. SpunkJuice would actually try to use the “Fed president of Tribeca” argument to ‘reason’ their point. My apologies for jumping to conclusions, your post was actually very funny in hindsight.

OK. I'm new to this posting stuff. Please don't take this as any form of attack, because it honestly is not intended that way, but why bother responding to ridiculous posts?

When reading these posts, why attack others for their own beliefs, as ridiculous as they may sound? Caveat emptor. I would never make a major decision based upon advice from any blog or posting board unless information is verified and passes my own review.

While it is somewhat amusing to read the back and forth, I think the "attacks" really do discourage people from expressing themselves which is what this is all about anyway. Debate is healthy. Personal attacks are childish and unproductive.

I'll get off my soapbox now... (have my armour on, so... LOL)

urbandigs aren't you suppose to selling and renting apts. Oh I forgot this is the day you are suppose to write negative blogs and convince sellers that we are heading into a depression and for them to lower their asking price.
You really need to get out there and show apts to your blog followers that really don't have any intention of buying.

spunky's whole argument is based on personal attacks. Please dont take that away from him. We love that simple minded real estate guru

spunky how do you respond to what is going on in this country's housing market?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=atrbI3FEV3.I

I cant wait to hear this! Tell her she should have bought in SoHo?

Buckster - it used to be like you say ... many moons ago ... before Spunky and JuiceMan started being complete retards. We would love you to post your thoughts. Just don't say something stupid like "6.75% is a low interest rate on a mortgage" when we've seen much lower rates for the last 5 years.

A personal attack complainer's rebuttal.

"spunky's whole argument is based on personal attacks. Please dont take that away from him. We love that simple minded real estate guru"--Urbandigs

Urbandigs I really do appreciate your maturity, honesty, sincerity and integrity. I really do.

urbandigs - nah - forget SoHo - she should have bought in 15 CPW!!

TheStreets, I feel sorry for you. I really do. You have no idea what you are talking about and have yet to prove your point, because you can't.

Buckster, don't worry about the banter. I'm fairly tired of it myself, but TheStreets just got outbid on his dream place and now he has to rent another year. He is a bit angry and taking it out on all of us.

Imagine arguing with someone about historical mortgage rates that has never actually owned real estate. Why don't you give some advice on something you actually know about like rent increases, landlord issues, or being cold and lonely on a Friday night?

TheStreets, do you own or rent?

I never occurred to me that there would be a renter on this board. Not that I care how people decide to structure their housing arrangements. I guess I assumed anyone interested in real estate to this level would def. own.

Plenty of renters trying to determine if they should buy or not. That is great. Renters giving mortgage advice, not so good.

Urbandigs has his finger on the pulse of national housing and credit woes far more than I do, or care to. My interest is in quality properties in the West Village, Soho and Tribeca, 2 mil and up. My sense of that market is that there is a lot of interest, but people are being cautious to see if the sellers wil be lowering prices, so far they have not, nor, do I believe, will they. In my opinion, there is just too little supply to satisfy demand, and from what I have seen, no distressed sellers that have to have a fire sale. The fundamentals for Manhattan, for people who want to own and live here, are very strong. Market sentiment is a bit weak, but that can change in a heartbeat, as I have seen happen as recently in Q2 07. Last year at this time, there was a glut of inventory, and about as much negative press as their is today, minus Urbandigs' non-stop cut and pasting from other sites as to the state of global credit, on what I think is a real estate blog. Yet, there was a tremendous change in sentiemnt in Q2 that led to more or less a non-stop buying frenzy that only ended so far Q1 08 (some brokers, like Doug Heasings, still claim to be very busy).
What caused the buyers to come into the market in Q2 07... They were waiting to come in, and when they saw that prices were firm, they finally came in and bought. Will that happen again? I beileve so, and if it does, it will be an environment that is even better for sellers due to low inventory.

Reading my post, it sounded too nasty. I think urbandigs' blog is meant to deal with "macro-economic" issues, and therefor my critique is incorrect.

JuiceMan - "Imagine arguing with someone about historical mortgage rates that has never actually owned real estate."

Imagine thinking that owning an apartment qualifies you to argue about credit spreads and mortgages with someone who trades it for a living! JuiceMan, billions of people around the world own real estate. Few people in my line of work still have their jobs today, let alone having their best year ever in '07. You're totally out of your depth my friend.

no one is denying this, not even me: "In my opinion, there is just too little supply to satisfy demand, and from what I have seen, no distressed sellers that have to have a fire sale. The fundamentals for Manhattan, for people who want to own and live here, are very strong."

If a seller MUST sell, they will get a great price because of the lack of competition and level of demand. A fire sale? If you price 1-3% below last comp, you will probably get a multiple bidding situation. Compared to other markets, that is strong.

But, do you expect gains like we experienced from 2002-2007? Thats the question. What happened is done, its gone, its past. The current macro environment is drastcially changed from the one in these years that helped fuel that kind of unsustainable growth. Question is, will buyer demand/confidence CHANGE for the worse in Manhattan! Thats what it comes down to. Thats the argument. Because that is the first stage of any coming correction, if buyers back away. That will lead to:

1) lower sales volume
2) inventory rising, not declining (again, 2005-2006-2007 is over. We are at now now)
3) seller competition

Prices will be a function of these dynamics starting with buyer confidence/demand. So, analyzing activity or traffic at open houses now must be done in a seasonal manner. It is SUPPOSED to be active now. The months of JAN-APRIL are the strongest months in Manhattan. So lets just see how things play out, how inventory does, and most importnatly how buyer confidence is effected by economy. If you want to see what a drop in buyer demand/confidence can do to a local market, just look outside manhattan where buyers disappeared. So, on this level, it seems our market is somewhat insulated if a slowdown hits.

That's fine Streets, can we end this now? Seriously. You feel that the spreads are significant because you are trading it every day and every basis point counts. That is perfectly logical to me. As a consumer, 10-70 bps on a personal mortgage rate doesn't mean a damn in long run. Can we agree on that and go back to contructive conversations?

Two points:

1) I do not expect us to see price appreciation such as we did between 2002-2007. I expect it will be more modest, however in some areas, such as the West Village, quality properties will see greater appreciation.

2) You are correct that Jan-Apri are traditionally the busiest time of the year, however, last year, the Summer, May-Oct was extremely busy. I believe that was becasue the pent up deamnd of buyers came into the picture a bit later, because they were waiting for the prices to crash.

I believe that buyer confidence will be shaky, but it will come back, and when it does it will be quick and sharp. Demand will not change for Manhattan housing, it is just a matter of affordability (As it always has been). The question is, are sellers in Manhattan the same as say sellers in suburban Tuscon, or Delray beach (meaning did they buy their homes ussing the same exotic mortgages, with the same L/V ratios, with the same income, etc.) Idon't think so. therefor, if sellers have to hold out, they will, eventually one side will break, and I believe it will be the buyers because there are too many wealthy people and too few quality apartments.

"using" I am on the phine as I type.

TheStreets, what part of the business are you in? If yoo umentioned it it was before I came on board. I've gathered it is some type of quant. but that is too broad for my to guess. Do you build the prop. trading models?

good points but Im not so sure about such strength generally during last summer

Urbandigs inventory is lower. compare January 2007 to January 2008. I do beleive Feb 2008 inventory will be lower than Feb 2007 as well

eah - buy side quant trading/analytics in derivatives. Not limited to any asset class or part of the capital structure. Yes - I do a lot of model building - for pricing derivatives/deals - not in the automated stat arb high frequency sense.

Do you need a place to live or not? The rest is speculation and egos being fed, although very interesting to read.

what did you get your ph.d in? buy side still is safer than sell side it seems, are you finding that?
just for a change in scenery: do you expect regulation to hit buy side?

Excellent point Buckster. Urbandigs believes he is Jim Rogers not a Real Estate Agent. He really should be selling houses rather than armchair doom and gloom economics.

i don't understand noah either. he seems passionate and focused and appears in is photo to be in his thirties so why doesnt try to get into the business?

eah - math masters, no phd. It's not a research type role that you'd have in a bank. I'm focused exclusively on trading, someone else can make the latest and greatest modification to Black Scholes. Yes, it's 'safer' than the sell side because there is a lot less fluff in the first place. If you get fired from the buy side you might be the only person who can do your job. If you get fired from a bank, no matter who you are, there are 20 people who can do your job. People at Amaranth would not say it's safer. Regulation is coming. No question. It might not seem like it at first but it will be better for everyone when it does - get's rid of all the gangsters.

Urbandigs. Look at any of the brokerage house reports from 07 and you will see that the Summer was very active, as was the early part of fall. I was surprised, as Summer is often dead. Anyway, time will tell.

streets- you personally know anyone from Amar ?

Actually Harry A. would say it was fine, even after the blow up, but the best will always be fine. Take your books and start your own gig.

That's my sense of the regs. also. Just wonder if the brits will bring them in and they will creepover here.

Harry's timing was imprecable...

inventory very low from what I have seen. mostly crappy places with high prices. buyers are out there and they are more picky. I decided rather than trying to rush in to, I am gonna find another rental and keep my eye out on something good. I feel as though as supply gets low, people, like my self are re-evaluating their standards. And I think thats a mistake I will regret years down the road if just took what was out there.

o also, most common things I hear from elevator talk is that people are holding off on buying till next year or they are trying to sell right away OR they are not gonna sell for another 2-3 years...

wasn't it though...
and the company blows up killing the non-compete.
and he looks like a good guy.

SPUNKY PLEASE EXPLAIN as you were so adament that this scenario didnt exist:

200 RSD

45B - 2200 sft asking 2.95M

38B - 2200 sft SOLD FOR 3.125M in late March 2007

7 floors higher? 175K lower. I thought this wasn't possible?

no need to understand me..i like what I do and I love blogging. And I earn a good living and I have no boss. Worry about yourselves

urbandigs, I hope your comment incites a bidding war among those who seem to hate you on this board, just so they can say I-told-you-so via streeteasy.

Oberon - I know people who used to work at Amaranth in the past but left before the implosion, and I know one guy who interviewed there shortly before they closed. The general consensus was that there was no shortage of arrogance in that place. I'm sure a lot of 'innocents' got caught up in the mess. Luckily for them it happened when the jobs market was fairly robust. Would be a lot more painful now.

eah - brits have already gone nuts with the regs - FSA has always been 'lighting the way'. Brits/Europeans now have MiFID to deal with (lots of websites out there explaining it).
Are you in the industry ?

Rumour is that Gumby has bid it back up to 3.125mm already LoL

thats what you get for publicly talking whats on your mind; haters, followers, and those that just enjoy the read. But spunky has made numerous challenges to find properties that are asking below what comps sold for last year. He thinks the market only goes up, and can never ever go down, especially in his hoods. Markets change, thats my point. At least I say what I truly feel, and I am not a bread line doom & gloomer, but if thats their attack so be it.

Im sure there are more properties out there, but I happen to be searching for one of my high end clients, who spunky claims I dont have. This one popped up and obviously looks like a worthy view valuewise, although not desired location for my specific client.

spunky had to make a quick trip to his therapist. he just realized he is full of shit and cant handle it

streets and eah- I know from a first person perspective as I was there through the whole thing... wouldn't say arrogance is what had taken the place down, industry thrives on this particular human trait, and yes I think Harry's departure was a result of other internal dealings not the sign of things to come...

Oberon - I dont think it was arrogance took it down either - that was only the feedback I got about the attitudes of a number of individuals who worked there - i think the guy who went for the interview was particularly surprised by some of the questions he was asked. :-)

did you have much trouble finding another job ? How did all your friends do ?

TheStreets: just a bored housewife posing as an insider.

Arrogance. Go to Citadel.
But, really, I don't think any of the houses are too kind.

Did Harry have his second baby yet?

Streets - I was fortunate enough to find even better opportunity at the time and in a way benefitted from the collapse. Most of my friends from that place doing as well if not better, with exception of few, but I would blame that on market conditions and timing rather than personality issues.

Oberon, have you ever been headhunted by the IDW group?

eah - I might have, at some point I had probably 10 diff guys calling me... are you involved with them ?

"How bad can it get?"
"Experts envision worst-case scenarios for NYC"

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/8892

Spunky - do NOT click that link. There may be text in the article that deals with the prospect of Manhattan prices dropping. It's not worth it. Just move on and keep reading the other posts.

Streets, I pulled a couple quotes from the article specifically regarding Manhattan. The article is fairly consistent with what a lot of folks on this board have been saying all along (meaning mild dip and somewhat speedy recovery). If this is the worst case scenario, then things in Manhattan are (and will) continue to look better than the rest of the country. Further, you can still have price acceleration on good properties as the crappy properties bring the average down (which I think most of us agree is happening now)

%u201CAnd even in Manhattan itself, Dottie Herman, president and chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman, one of the two largest residential brokerages in Manhattan, has grimly predicted that home prices will remain flat in 2008.%u201D

"Of the alternatives of how you could look at Manhattan%u2014that it will go through the same thing as the rest of the country but later, that it will go through it less, or that it won't go through it at all%u2014I'm of a mind that it will go through it less," said Barry Hersh, the associate director of the Steven L. Newman Real Estate Institute at Baruch College/City University of New York. Manhattan will see a slowing in the number of home sales, which has already begun, along with a drop in home prices, he said.

"I think at a bare minimum, it will last most of this year, and I think probably, more realistically, into 2009," Hersh said. "I think even the rental market will not be zooming."

"Von Ancken said that he expects an anticipated national economic recession to have a moderate effect in New York City, which may have to wade through, at its extreme, a three-year quagmire."

"The worst it could be is about a three-year problem," he said. "I think there will be a recession, but I think it will be mild in New York City. We had a recession in the year 2000 that was very mild, and it took us about three years to recover."

"We noticed in our analysis that the rapid increase in pricing for condos and co-ops is only at the top end, meaning the very expensive ones, and the other apartments are sort of static or actually going down in price," Von Ancken said.

i say..

2008 - the year inventory rises, sales slow
2009 - the year after the recession, bonuses suck, pockets of distress
2010 - did you get a discount in 2008-2009? stimulus starts to show real effects on economic growth
2011 - spunky gets committed

i say..

"post number 1,100"

- from your humble OP.

Oberon, no. Some English woman who works there calls me.