where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

400 posts, here we come!!

JuiceMan + Fautus + Noah = same temple or you go way back from Hebrew school?

Idiot, no. Jerk...I suppose. But at least I actually work IN the industry.
And when I've spent several million dollars on an apartment I just want the agent to open the door and sit in the corner on his Blackberry as I decide whether we like the place. Speaking of swine, the swine who opened the door has nothing to offer me in terms of the financials of the deal/the market in general. Unless Noah wants to help very well off execs in, say, media or the pharma. industry who have zero time to read the newspaper I cannot see how his analysis helps at all? Wealthy people generally are wealthy because we 1)work very hard and are on top of things 2) have incredible personal advisors 3)have the ability do our own reading and analysis and on and on...

What the hell is wrong with you people?

Mel, you said it best. Doesn't even justify a response.

Rest assure and I'll bet my bottom dollar that faustus has some type of criminal history. Wouldn't be surprised that in his rental apt he's got some duck tape, handcuffs and a loaded pistol tucked away under a floor board. Probably has some pictures of women that he keeps in his shoe box that he's been stalking. Urbandigs the fact that faustus kisses the ground that you walk on should be reason for concern

eah the fact that linked Juiceman with the likes of faustus and Noah was a major error on your part. An apology is in order.You totally misinterpreted what he was stating.

Does it seem I am about to apologize? Really...do you think that your request is going to move me to "sorry"...

"Duck tape."
Thanks for that.

eah no need to apologize but you need to lighten up a little.

bunch of trolls ...

And, Oberon, you are a...? Just so we know what to strive towards.

when you say "we" I need a list of names

Spunky disliking or disagreeing with someone is the highest compliment they could ever receive.

well, you used trolls in the plural..so i assume you already have your list.

To be clear, my post was trying to say that the service urbandigs provides is summarizing technical, complex information into a readable, usable form. He then gives his opinion on that information. He does this on his own time and the information is well thought out and valuable. You can debate his point of view, but you can't argue the value or the thoroughness of the information. Also, since he is forming an opinion based upon research and experience, there is no need to source any of it.

So eah, if you are going to make strong statements, at least make them informed ones. Oh, and thanks for the getting wealthy tips. We were all hoping that someone would show up on this board and tell us how it is done. Bravo.

What get wealthy tips have I given? My statement was centered around the fact that the wealthy typically don't need someone "summarizing technical, complex information into a readable, usable form" in order to purchase an apartment. Particularly when that person is the person tasked with turning the key in the lock.

Now, if Soros or Bogle or Buffet want to pontificate on real estate trends I suspect those in the income bracket Noah wants to impress would probably be interested.

Well, whenever Soros, Bogle, or Buffet want to hop on streeteasy and pontificate on real estate trends, they are welcome. Until then, us simple minded folk will be leaning on urbandigs, spunky, and will.

JuiceMan - if you need the level of analysis that Noah provides to decide whether to buy or not you simply cannot afford to.

Forbes just names spunky stock picker of the year!!!

Yawn. eah, you bore me. Next subject.

I wasn't here to entertain you.

eah dam are you anal retentive or what. Please take the pole out of your a-s.

Now, now, sounky - let's watch the language!

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/63/63356/Winter_2008_ERET.pdf

Interesting article on national housing prices

Oh no you don't - I'm not giving up on you so easily, favorite post!!!

Please come back and play......

let it go man. let it go........

Hey if no one is going to post anymore on this thread anymore at least I should be the last one.

Oh my god. Some Canadians want to buy my coop. We're all screwed. We're gonna be run by those people who talk nerdy with funny up-note intonations. They loved my place, and they were laughing and chuckling. As a red-blooded and patriotic American, should I refuse to sell to them?

spunky - thank MLK for delaying Black Monday! We would have opened down 3% today as global markets selloff at a lag in response to the reality of the credit crisis that hit the US since last July. Its getting ugly!

spunky - thank MLK for delaying Black Monday! We would have opened down 3% today as global markets selloff at a lag in response to the reality of the credit crisis that hit the US since last July. Its getting ugly!

urbandigs who cares let's see where the Dow will be at the end of the year or for that matter 5 years from now. I'll leave the daytrading second by second tic by tic stock watching to you and zizi since both of you haven't a clue when it comes to long term investing. Good luck timing both the Manhattan real estate and stock market.

spunky baby, I'm already 10% richer than you in just one week where I had cash and you had C and MER. Imagine what things will look like in 5 years (or whatever your "long term" is).

no US trading today, but S&P futures are down a whoppping 4%

let me know when you need to sell the house, I'll be waiting.

but if markets tank, and start to tank globally, and we enter a recession, dont you think Manhattan re will be affected: which was the original discussion until all personal attacks came in because of varying views on the severity of this credit crisis and how it will spread

Urbandigs, I won't deny a certain degree of shadenfreude in my responses to spunky, but if you're looking for more serious analysis:

The S&P500 is down 15% from its 2007 peak and back to Mid 1999 levels (that's right - if you invested a dollar in May 1999 in an index fund, you have a dollar there now, with dividends that about cover inflation). Where's that 14%/year growth cited in investment books from the 90s?

Liquidity in the markets is just horrible. We saw a tentative return of liquidity in late December, but that was a little premature. Try to trade a bond, a note, a preferred stock... I wish you the best of luck in finding a buyer (or a seller for that matter). Even municipal bonds are down due to bond insurer troubles.

The Euro has (finally) started its decline (which is inevitable, since Europe is facing the same issues as the US) and if I were a betting man I'd bet it's going back to 1.25 or so. This means Manhattan real estate is going to look like it's 15% more expensive.

At the same time, existing foreign investors who have bought at an average exchange rate of 1.33 or so, are going to be increasingly tempted to sell, as they see prices going up in Euros, but also monthly maintenance becoming increasingly expensive due to taxes, heating and exchange rate.

Tens of millions of Americans, and hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers among them are going to be looking with disbelief at their stainless steel kitchens, flat screen TVs, iPods and fashion sneakers and thinking maudlin thoughts about past follies.

For the first time in about 70 years, you will see a mass of well educated, hard working, honest Americans who cannot afford to be where they are. They can't live in a suburb because they can't make the payments on two cars and the gas they consume. They can't live in the city because it's priced to kill...

There's only one possible outcome from all this. If you believe there is any alternative to a global asset deflation, I want some of what you're smoking.

I thought we were already in a recession? If so, open houses were buzzing this weekend, but wait till the spring hits. We'll really be hurting then! Guess we have to wait for all of the doom and gloom to spread to actual buyers of NYC real estate.

we prob are Juice! Wont know for sure until NBER officially announces it although there are varying definitions for a recession.

Interesting zizizi..Question, how do you feel about:

1. GOLD
2. Emerging Markets

I agree with your statement about asset deflation! Wondering how you would be investing right now. Not smoking anything, but may need to start tomorrow!!

You know I haven't read so much negative news about the economy since the aftermath of 9/11. Each and everyday more and more negative news is being broadcast via newspapers, radio and TV. In fact I went to JFK and the taxi driver kept ranting and raving how lousy the economy was and that Manhattan RE was going to crash.
It's interesting that inventory is still relatively low in Manhattan. There are buyers on the sidelines, like Urban digs, as well as renters waiting anxiously for Manhattan prices to drop so they can snap em out at fire sale prices. It's matter of who can't afford to blink first. A wife who's dying to own an apt so she can raise a family and feather her nest or a seller on Park avenue overlooking central park who can't afford to continue making the maintenance charges on their apt.
Same is going on in South Hampton. Lots of people would love to buy their dream vacation house on the ocean and are also anxiously awaiting a major drop in that area as well. There must be owners of oceanfront homes on the beach in South Hampton who are having trouble making the tax payments on their homes as well.

zizizi -- great comment --> "At the same time, existing foreign investors who have bought at an average exchange rate of 1.33 or so, are going to be increasingly tempted to sell, as they see prices going up in Euros, but also monthly maintenance becoming increasingly expensive due to taxes, heating and exchange rate."

Very true and something that nobody wants to hear or talk about. In fact, Im sure the spunky's and eah's of this board are going to start personal attacks on you now because you talk reality. Many of the guys I met when I was trading are from London, Brazil, Turkey, etc.. and told me how many friends bought apts in the past year due to currency advantage. They also told me that ALL expect to flip after closing or take a loss if they have to because they really couldnt afford it in the first place. Now, this is only my personal experience, but I happen to agree with you that if currency trends reverse, and Euro loses ground agains the dollar amidst this macro crisis and plunging stock markets, that there will be plenty of sellers of new dev units from abroad who have to deal with a situation they hoped wouldnt come!

For so long, brokers used the 'foriegn demand' as the key to our market. Im very curious to see how these same brokers handle an environment where the dollar is actually strengthening due to weakness of global economies! They probably will flip flop and say, "well our US dollar is now strong, and a strong dollar means a strong economy and that means strong housing prices"..

Lets be honest here. Im a broker, but at least I say what I feel. Did you see what Jacky Teplitzkey, a HUGE broker here in Manhattan, said when I discussed whether a weaker dollar actually accelrated demand at a time when confidenc is dropping: http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/11/confidence_trumps_weakening_do.html

JT --> "I do see a pick up in demand now from foreign buyers. During the crisis of the credit crunch the foreigners were calling me to find out how this situation was affecting the New York market and I kept saying that it was not affecting the market. They were a bit nervous as they are not that familiar with our specific market and they hear the news from overseas and think of the US as one market. Now that the storm has passed they see that I was right and feel more comfortable."

So, the credit storm passed in mid November. Im curious to see how may new dev units are going to be resold in an environment much different than it was when the contract was signed.

very true spunky, but that may all change as the credit crisis evolves and stocks fall! We cant expect that to remain stable if the foundation is crumbling!

On a positive note, OH's are active! At 170 W 23rd, although this is not a good example because this apt was properly priced, there were 25+ people in lobby and I had to wait to even see the place! Is this the norm, NO, is it occuring out there, YES. Are all those buyers serious, of course NOT, but its still encouraging. The problem is this is supposed to happen now. This is the most active season in NYC! But what happens in summer/fall if it turns out sales volume was slow? Inventory will build, and that starts a process that takes time to change.

I just think we havent seen such problems before, all at same time, and all when commodity inflation is a concern for central banks limiting their arsenal. What the hell is going to be done to fix these problems???

Thanks Urbandigs. You raise the most important question: What the hell is going to be done to fix these problems???

I keep reading that the Fed action plus the Admin/Cong stimulus is regarded as "too little, too late" by Wall Street. Not much we can do about the "too late" part, but there should be actions that could be taken that would mitigate the damage. I wonder if anyone in Washington has the guts and vision to do whatever it takes.

I like Trump's idea that someone should just call Saudi Arabia and tell em to drop the oil prices to 60 bucks or lower or else let them fend for themselves against the terrorists.

C’mon urbandigs! Really now! This is exactly my frustration with the doom and gloom view. Your current view is that this summer/fall will be terrible. That is another 8 months out! I remember the sky was supposed to fall Q4 of 2006! Then it was Q1 07, then Q2, Q3 (credit crisis), Q4 (poor bonuses) Q1 08 (credit crisis), etc, etc. For all the people waiting for a downturn, they have waited through 3-4 years of serious price appreciation and now you are recommending waiting another year? Stop this madness! If you are in the market, ignore this nonsense! Buy smart and hold long and you will be very happy!

Have anybody seen the packed open houses this weekend? Oh, I see — they are attended by the great unwashed who do not partake in a Streeteasy commenters' wisdom. Silly them, keep buying places to live.

"ere should be actions that could be taken that would mitigate the damage. I wonder if anyone in Washington has the guts and vision to do whatever it takes."

Oh yeah? can you name such actions?

Went to two open houses in Brooklyn Hts -- one was overflowing (literally a backup), one was empty.

Anecdotally you could either say the market is "half full" or "half empty" ;)

Really though -- quality still seems to be attracting at least a good group of "lookers".

juice - please show me where I said manhattan will crash in Q4 06 to Q2 07? I recall saying I expect prices to drop for the first time publicly when 10YR bond yields rose 65 basis points in 2 weeks time to 5.3% or so..I think that was April/May 07, and before the credit crisis rose to the surface. Before that, It was all open discussion on some of the problems underneath!

Here - It was June 7th - http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/06/manhattan_prices_will_drop.html

Before that I discussed a number of times how Manhattan is holding on (http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/04/nyc_rocks_on_sa.html), open houses are active - Jan 2007 (http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/01/buyer_activity.html), bidding wars - Feb 2007, finance contingencies being removed - Feb 2007, inventory is tight, buyer demand is healthy, and as long as inventory is so tight you wont see many deals popping up or a sig correction. All before the credit crisis HIT in mid July when Bear started it with their 2 funds going under!

While we really should have been more focused when HSBC hinted in early FEB, it wasnt until mid July that credit crisis reality really started to hit home! I still think the world changed when HSBC warned in FEB 07, but I didnt take that as serious as I should have until mid July 2007..then I changed content to focus solely on macro and credit crisis and possible problems..

So what do we do about it?

here is where US equity futures (didnt think they were traded on holidays) ended:

DOW --> -520
S&P --> -60.30

If this carries over to tomorrow, it's going get the attention of alot of prospective buyers via media headlines! So we open down 4%, I cant believe Im saying this, but Im sure Big Ben will have to ease and ease hard over the next few months.

Well Urbandigs if that happens then we may be closer to a bottom and this flush out is good. It’s always darkest before the dawn.

HAHAHAHAHAHA- but of course, everything is JUST DANDY and DUMB money will be able to sell to even DUMBER money and prices will be fine in Manhattan.

There's always an endless supply of the DUMBER money in this pyramid scheme that will pay for your retirement!! It's the foreigners stupid!!!

Global stock market crash? Check. It's ok, DUMBER foreigners are... DUMB! they keep buying even if their local countries markets are vaporizing away.

US market crash? Well, with the DOW futures showing a whopping 500 point drop for Tuesday morning, I guess that's a Check. But, but... it's ok. We all buy and hold stocks for 5 years!!!

Recession worries? Um.. well, I guess it's not even a debate about IF but HOW BAD now. Hrmph... I guess that's a check.

Nervous overleveraged homedebtors and shady shark RE brokers getting more emotional? Still a solid check, though starting to taper as factoids to grasp as last gasp reasons to argue why Manhattan is different have been disappearing mighty quickly.

spunky - yes. we need to get wrecked! But what if that isnt the bottom but the start of a longer term bear market, fueled by slumping housing, financial system distress, and a global slowdown all at same time?

Ugh.

PS: I misspoke above. I meant to say we should have headed the warning sign of HSBC's announcement in early 2007! I think the world changed after Bear Stearns funds went under and the credit crisis really reached the surface.

urbandigs, I wasn't saying that you made those predictions (although reading my post I can see how you would infer that), my statement was that generally, the doomers have been predicting a fall for years, and that you yourself had said Q1 would see a downturn. After reading this part of your post:

"The problem is this is supposed to happen now. This is the most active season in NYC! But what happens in summer/fall if it turns out sales volume was slow? Inventory will build, and that starts a process that takes time to change."

Wait! Q1 was supposed to be the start of the crash! The credit crisis! The housing slump! Oh my! There are always excuses for why things are doing well (see all the posts from Q3 and Q4) and there are always doomsday prediction right around the corner. Things are great now, people are buying, open houses are packed…but…wait, the downturn is coming… the downturn is coming…..run and hide!

I say this in the nicest possible way urbandigs, but you are a buyers broker through to the core. Which is great, I respect that. But sellers, don’t be swayed!

MMAfia, we could fill out a 400 post thread with all of your failed predictions from 2007.

I see your point Juice!! I can totally understand those feelings, as many doomers have been saying it for so long now. Like Doug Kass who everyone used to joke with about his calls which turned out to be dead on, with timing his only error. Thats the thing, the problems are there, but it takes time for them to reach surface and hit stocks/consumers/media. Scary.

Yes I do work mostly with buyers too, not purposely, I would love to have more sales listings, which is why I switched to Halstead. I lost at least 4 pitches with would be sellers who contacted me via urbandigs.com and read my site, but didnt want to list with citi-hab..But for now I have so many buyers that unless a seller contacts me, I havent started putting money/effort into soliciting new sellers. Will soon though. I can see how a seller would think that because of my views I would scare away buyers, but trust me, it doesnt work that way in real world. Too many brokers do not proactively market a listing and will lie to seller about price just to get the signed agreement, and then work on reduction a month later.

Strategic marketing should be brought to a new level!

"But sellers, don’t be swayed!"

YES, do NOT be swayed!!! There is an endless supply of DUMB buyers, the latecomers to this ponzi scheme who are SO DUMB they will not think twice about buying in Manhattan EVEN in the face of a recession!!! or a market collapse!!!

And so we sit here arguing about who said what and when blah blah blah... meanwhile, the downturn is HERE and STARING AT YOUR FACE RIGHT NOW and what do we do? Yes, argue about who said what way back when blah blah blah.

CLEARLY, yet again, no idea as to what's going on even if IT'S HERE RIGHT NOW STARING YOU AT YOUR FACE!!!

Excellent sign of a Ponzi scheme, where DENIAL clings on to the very VERY end before panic and fear sets in.

MMafia - have you heard Barry Ritholtz's re-vival of the 5 stages of grief:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/5-stages-of-mar.html

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

He thinks we are between #2/#3 nationally as far as housing slump..As for Manhattan, clearly we are at very beginning! Will all 5 stages hit us here at home?

The recession is here folks.

Look at what the stock markets here in US and around the world are doing- they are tanking HARD.

Credit is... well GONE. The credit bubble has burst, BIG TIME.

How about this? Since the beginning of this year, the DOW has lost about 1,000 points as of Friday's close. The markets are closed today (MLK holiday), but the WORLD has collapsed, and so the DOW Futures for tomorrow morning is an additional 500 points down!!!

Starting to get my drift here? It's not "coming" anymore people- IT IS HERE NOW!!!

Stop the fantasy hopes fair tales, read reputable news sources like the Financial Times, and to a lesser degree, the Wall St journal and prepare yourselves accordingly.

"MMAfia, we could fill out a 400 post thread with all of your failed predictions from 2007."

What does that matter now? I'm tempted to argue, but it's all really pointless at this stage!!!

All that matters now is that the end game is here. Right HERE right NOW. It's happening as I type. Who cares about he said she said?

What matters is that since the end game is HERE, focus on what you should be doing NOW and stop clinging on and arguing about the past.

Ok, I'll take the bait a little Juice... couldn't resist.

In 2007 I said that a slowdown in Manhattan is imminent, and that we will most likely head into a recession, and instead of putting a downpayment to join the Manhattan RE ponzi scheme as one of the last DUMB money, to put that downpayment into GOLD, accumulate on dips and then talk to me when on Jan 1, 2008 after cashing in the gains.

The bottom line is, if you had taken my advice, you would be drinking brewskies and not shi3tting thick bricks of worry right now.

Noah,

Yes, I am very familiar w/Ritholtz. Manhattan tends to LAG, and will play catch up to the rest of the nation- it will not escape a consumer induced recession and a credit-market blowup in Wall St.

How do we know this? Well.... just check the stock market silly. We're approaching 9/11 panic levels already, and the Bond Insurers and Credit Card companies haven't fully dropped the other shoe(s) yet!!

urbandigs, if you are really convinced that we are in for that significant of a downturn are you recommending to all your buyers that they wait until the summer/fall to purchase?

"And so we sit here arguing about who said what and when blah blah blah... meanwhile, the downturn is HERE and STARING AT YOUR FACE RIGHT NOW and what do we do? Yes, argue about who said what way back when blah blah blah."

Yes MMAfia, we are blah blah blah. That's because your 2007 forecasts were wrong wrong wrong

"stop clinging on and arguing about the past."

Did you get that defense from Mark McGwire? Worked pretty well for him. Maybe you should give Clemens a call?

malraux, MMAfia is the poster boy for the title of this thread. You found him!

That is, in my opinion, quite immature JuiceMan.

Why focus on the past when you have much more important things to focus on right here and right now?

Wouldn't smart people who aren't emotionally bound want to focus on what's happening today and how to protect yourself?

You are like the annoying person on a team who's 110% focused on WHY we ran into a problem and WHO IS TO BLAME for it.

Me, well, I'm more about HOW TO FIX THE PROBLEM FIRST instead of worrying about who caused it and who's fault it is.

I'd suggest the readers of this board follow the former instead of the latter.

malraux, forget about the past. focus on the NOW.

and the NOW shows that the DOW Futures market is showing 11,600, well on its way to the 11,000 headline of this thread.

So NOW what?

Just having some fun MMAfia. I'm glad you are back, you provide an interesting and educated perspective which I don't always agree with, but appreciate.

Here's the now MMAfia (an exerp from a broker) so go back to your little bottle filled of gold coins and spill them out and then put them back in your bottle agin. Do this a few more times. I'm sure you'll have fun doing that.

Tale of Two Psyches appears to be an appropriate title for the current Manhattan real estate market as languishing properties coexist with bidding wars. Activity in the past 10 days has picked up for me and my colleagues exponentially from late November and December. This past weekend, on behalf of our clients, we bid on $4.2M worth of residential real estate ranging from a 1BR co-op asking $779k to a Classic 7 room co-op asking $2.45M. The $779K property is selling "considerably above $800K" per the seller's agent and the $2.45M has multiple offers at the ask and will likely go to a highest, best and final bid over the asking price. Both were well priced (duh...obviously) but not so well priced that one would expect this type of multiple bid scenario. Another colleague of mine just informed me that his buyer (with liquid assets in the high 7 figures) just lost a bidding war on the Upper East Side by $100K and he bid $51K over the $1.7M asking price (so it's selling for $1.851M or almost 10% over the asking price).

So what's going on? Inventory remains unbelievably low and SOME buyers are snapping up SOME of the quality inventory that hits the market. The unusual aspect of the current real estate marketplace that I'm observing is that the anxiety surrounding the future of our overall economy is effecting Wall Streeters much more significantly than other professional sectors such as doctors, attorneys, entrepreneurs/business owners, retired empty-nesters, and those who just refuse to pay a landlord. Many Wall Streeters, fearing a recession and therefore expecting a buying opportunity have either put their search on hold or consistently underbid prices at levels unacceptable to sellers. Another interesting piece of the current dichotomy is that some attractively priced and well located properties continue to languish on the market with numerous "interested" parties neglecting to bid. It's a very bizarre (and challenging) environment that I don't ever remember seeing in my 16 years in the industry.

These happenings over the past couple of weeks could indeed be anecdotal but I think it's worth paying attention to the number of buyers who are still sitting on the sidelines with cash just waiting to pounce on their home as evidenced by the numerous bidding wars taking place. 2008 is already shaping up to be a wild ride indeed!

MMAfia asks 'so now what?"

Well, as far as I'm concerned, I'm going to keep buying Manhattan residential real estate, as I have been, but of course, in aa an informed manner as possible.

For instance - In 2007, I bought two more places in Manhattan for my portfolio. One is 15 CPW. Why? Because although I felt (as did most) that we were 'near the top,' I also felt that this particular building's value would hold up so well, and I felt that the return would be so massive, that I was foolish not to buy in at an early stage. So the 2 bed/2.5 bath was purchased for around $4.5MM. Now it's worth about $7MM - $8MM, and I could sell it right now VERY, VERY quickly - trust me - even with tomorrow's market performance. And if it goes down 30%, I'm still up, and very happy with the property's propects long term. In addition, I bought another place in the Village (which is where the majority of my real estate holding lie) and I'm very comfortable with that as well.

As for 08', I will hope for a significant downturn (though I don't think we're going to get one as severe as people think - certainly not like 1991-94') so that I can pick up a couple more great classics on the puke out. It probably won't happen that way, but the bottom line is that the average post-war recession has lasted 10 months, the longest post-war reccession lasted 15 months, and I believe that the long term investment potential in a carefully culled portfolio of Manhattan residential real estate to be a wisely invested portion of my overall net worth portfolio.

i just bought in 20 pine

i feel really good about it.....it's manhattan residential real estate.....i'm adding it to my portfolio i know i can flip it in three months for a real good profit....trust me

People have to live somewhere, and renting (i.e., throwing $60000/year away, literally) is not a sane alternative. Living somewhere in an apartment is a familiar concept, isn't it. At least it should be. Treating real estate only as an investment is not normal.

why do you say throwing 60000 a year away.....don't you get to live in an appartment for that money

gumby - it's like renting a car as opposed to owning it. It's someone else's property. Rental tuxedo.

gumby i would be nice to see if your deal actually plays out. why not give us some detail on you purchase. how much % appreciation would you need to break even in 3 months? and if you can flip?

Uh, lupus1, I think gumby is being ingenuously sarcastic.

Say what you want gumby. I have no problem averaging down on choice Manhattan residential real estate.

juice - Im honest with my buyers. They look at the situation and try to use it to their advantage and negotiate or simply hold off for a few months until they find a product they know is priced right for current marketplace. If that means less deals and ones I have to work longer for, Im totally happy with it! Geez man, I publicly talk about all this on my site, I have no reason to lie to my clients to their face!

My buyers always have a longer term timeline to own, and go over the financials before hand to make sure its the right call. With that said, I must have told 8 or 9 buyers in 2007 that buying is the WRONG decision for them. Most of these buyers are saving up and waiting for the decision to buy lines up properly with their strategy and finances...its AMAZING TO ME HOW MANY BUYERS OUT THEIR ARE NOT REAL, SIMPLY LOOKING, AND/OR IN THE END DO NOT HAVE THE $$$ TO ACTUAL BUY AN APT GIVEN THAT THE SELLER BROKER PRE-QUALIFIES ALL BIDS RECEIVED FOR THE DEAL TO MAKE IT THROUGH TO CLOSING!

urbandigs not telling you how to do your business but why don't you concentrate your efforts on representing potential buyers and sellers in the 3 mil plus category. This way you're representing serious people with actual means rather than wasting your time with the likes of zizi, MMafia Oberon, gumby etc. These types will just continue frustrating the heck out of you. It appears to me your fan club consists of bitter renters, BS artists and those who enjoy wasting your time by showing them apts.

Based on your response urbandigs, spunky brings up a very good point.

Talk about paralysis of analysis!!

Well I just closed and moved into my new construction home and I have to say that it has FAR exceeded my expectations. I was a bit apprehensive at first, giving in to the FUD of this board, but after just one weekend here I now know I definitely made the right decision. Genuinely good luck to those waiting for a better buying opportunity. I offer this: For me right now it's definitely worth the money to be LOVING my new home over stressing/waiting/surfing streeteasy/renting for a sale/bargain. I'll be spending much more happy (and spacious!) time with my family. I feel like a burden has been lifted. Good luck again!

PS - Moving is truly an unpleasant experience.

urbandigs, to answer your questions - I know I'll feel like an idiot, but I'm not buying gold because it's a pretty much worthless commodity that yields zero. If I want to pay 5%/year to buy a signifier of "the world is coming to an end" then I should invest in weapons, medicine and a farm :)

As for emerging markets, it's hard to say anything definitive about them. In many cases they've ridden this credit bubble way too high, but many of them have also undergone magnificent transformation. So my guess is as good as yours.

spunky, spunky, I can already buy a place in how much you've lost on C and MER

Whoa! What a morning! Can anyone tell me when these rate cuts will begin to seriously impact jumbo loans? Would love to shave a point if the opportunity presents itself.

Congrats aifamm! Best to you and family.

spunky/juice - totally my plan! Thats why I moved to Halstead and in midst of getting whole model in place to cater to this sector of the market.

BTW - FED CUTS 3/4 pt..Talk about panic move! Barely an effect on futures..They are ivy league idiots..They should have let markets open, flush system, and do the move at 11AM

Juiceman:

Sadly, the rate cut will have absolutely zero effect on jumbo loans in Manhattan in the near term.

urbandigs:

Sadly, at this point, they HAD to make the call before the open. The flush (as you refer to it) would have had far too much inertia and a later cut would have been less effective (as if that's actually possible at this point).

i totally disagree..this 75 bas cut had a 100pt effect on DJ futures as of right now..WE NEED CAPITULATION! We are already 1 day behind Int'l markets that saw two days of 4-5% market declines!

We are playing catch up. Total panic move by fed..

Total waste of their ammo! Like firing all your bullets 1,000 yards from the target. They should have waiting, let the markets capitulate, and cut 75 bsp mid day..whatever, this move and the no reaction shows how screwd we are!

Urbandigs good move and good strategy. Just imagine how it would be like to have to show zizi, MMafia, types of people apts' all day and all night long. Then having zizi call you in the evening and debating with you on why he should continue renting as oppose to buying. Then when these people finally decide to move forward they make a ridiculous low ball offer. Then you later find out that even if the low ball offer was accepted zizi never had the means nor the credit score to have the deal successfully complted.
Although I enjoy reading your blog site it is mostly targeted for angry renters and those who really don't have the means to purchase a place but who enjoy reading all the negative news about the economy in a easily understood format.

thx - but I do have high end clients and met plenty of high net worth individuals from urbandigs who intend to work with me. Problem is, these people are very smart and are not buying manhattan re right now as they understand the problems we are facing. Instead, we talk via email all the time. They tell me what they are seeing, I tell them what I am seeing and we all learn a little.

Just for fun - BEFORE 10:00 AM - post where you think the dow will be at 4:00 pm today - this is not see 'who's a better market caller' than someone else - this is just for shits an giggles.

I'll start.

At 4:00 pm today, Dow closes at 11,400.

Ill play - DOW 11,520

Even though I think this is a malraux ploy to keep his thread going I'll say,

11,753

hey malraux, we who thought the market would crash are only 30 days late!
i have 3million cash in the bank and will be excited to buy apartments for peanuts from one or two soon to be unemployed home owners who can't make their payments. everyone who bought in the last 3 years is going to lose alot of money!

Dow close: 10,800. Has everyone "super-glued him/herself to the floorboards" as suggested on Clusterf--k Nation?

malraux a more interesting question would be by the end of the how many posts will be on this thread?

423

cloverfield ii: little black arrows

"...everyone who bought in the last 3 years is going to lose alot of money!..."

R-i-i-i-i-i-g-h-t.

Here we go again with the "Manhattan real estate market down 30%! - no - 40%! - no - 45%! - no - MORE! - by the end of January 2007!!!" howl.

smartmoney1234, there will be no 'apartments for peanuts.' There wasn't during 1991/94' turndown, either, for that matter. Can you expect (as we've been discussing for some time) a 10% correction? Sure. A 20% correction? - mmmm, I think so, but not much of that in truly prime areas. A 30% (or more) correction? Maybe, but not in areas where you'd want to buy to live or for investment in the first place.

I heard the same irrational stupidity in 1990/1991 when people told me that everyone like me who had bought/invested in 1985/89' was going to loose alot of money. It didn't quite work out that way in the end. Now I have about seven years left on those 30 year mortgages that still exist, I've had the pleasure of having tenants pay me a small fortune during the past 23 years to live in my properties, and in addition I basically own the properties outright (those that I still own, of course, as there's been a lot of buying and flipping in those two decades, of course). It's just a cash-printing machine.

You'll get a good deal, definitely - but if you're looking to buy prime Manhattan real estate - go into your bargain hunting 'apartments for peanuts mode' realistically. And talk to others who were around during the last major downturn for good advice - the best thing about asking others for their experience is that it costs you nothing.

Although I enjoy reading your blog site it is mostly targeted for angry renters and those who really don't have the means to purchase a place but who enjoy reading all the negative news about the economy in a easily understood format. <---could not agree more.

Lovely to see a RE broker talk about "ivy league idiots"...that is precious!
You're right Noah--you ought to be running the Fed. Reserve; and just pimping RE part time.

hey Zizi could you please tell me how Merrill Lynch is doing today. Just curious because I know you like following my recent purchases and updating me on how Mer and C are performing. Thank you in advance

I don't think there's any real value in grand pronouncements. A Magic 8 ball can generate the same quality of prediction. Reasoned, observations may help in seeing things in a way one might have not considered or by raised facts that weren't known. Malraux offers interesting analyses and comments at times but then says things that are just incendiary at others which are amusing but not really meaningful. If you bought in the late 80's and sold in '91 for example, you likely got taken to the cleaners. In 1991 recession, some Manhattan coops lost 30% of their value. I know. I owned one in a solid building with good finances in a good location. I bought in '89 and by '91 comparables were selling for 2/3 of what I paid. But the market recovered, as most do, over time. I was in it for the long run and held tight. When I recently sold I got 460% of the purchase price. So did prices drop in the recession? Yes. Did they go back up? Yes. Is a short-term RE investment wise as we enter a recession? Probably not unless you can tolerate high risk of short-term losses.

America sneezed and now the world markets have a cold. America's own cold is looking more like the flu as the DOW gave up all 2007 gains and keeps dropping in the first 22 days of 2008. Is Manhattan RE so different that none of it will have/is having any impact on prices? That just doesn't sound reasonable, does it? It's more a question of how much of an impact and for how long. I'm not an economist or RE guru, but big rosy "buy, buy, buy" posts ring a little empty with the peristent problems the economy is experiencing without signs of letting up.

So kylewest if you don't own an apt where are you living. Are you renting now waiting for prices to drop to get back in or are you out for good.

FWIW, spunky (and BTW I enjoy your posts and pokes on here, too) I sold at a good time a short while ago, am in a holding pattern for now and looking ernestly. I'll buy if I find the right property at the right price or rent for a while if I don't and then buy again when I find the right place. I'm one of those people who just prefers to own a place. But for now, I'm comfortable either way. I'm not looking for any "steals" but I expect a seller today to show some flexibility. By that I mean, I've encountered some sellers acting like it is still January 2007 and whose agents use words like "firm" when discussing offerring prices. In this climate I walk away from them. And then I see their listings languish week after week. Those who are more into negotiating and aren't trying to get the very highest price ever paid per sq/ft in their building are still getting contracts/sales for decent (but not record-breaking) prices from what I see.

POST 400!!!!

"... Malraux offers interesting analyses and comments at times but then says things that are just incendiary at others which are amusing but not really meaningful..."

And thanks for being able to tell the difference!

Can someone please explain to me how all those people like smartmoney1234 who have been proudly renting instead of buying, and who have their million$ tucked away in the financial markets for the perfect razor-sharp-no-margin-for-error timed opportunity, aren't experiencing epic portfolio losses this month?

Because they are in GOLD!!!!