where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

Post 403 --We need 20 more post to meet my prediction

now we need 20 more sorry

hey Zizi I know you sold all your 401k stock positions at the opening this morning so you should be free to look and see how Mer is doing. I need you to give me my minute to minute update.

Very sane, sensible posts, kylewest.

as opposed to which other posts tenemental?

That's 407 come on guys we only need 16 more posts. U can do it

As opposed to "Manhattan only goes up, up, UP, ever" and "buy now or be priced out forever" - or - "we're heading for a massive crash, down xx%," the two common themes.

This morning Zizi writes "spunky, I can already buy a place in how much you've lost on C and MER"

Zizi I need you to get back to me about on how MER did today? Can you please take a look at that quote machine and get back to today on that.

Kudos to the Juiceman who neither flinched ror paniced in the leaset he had the closest call for the Dow's close today at 11,753.

Better investment than gold is TIPS. Both are doing very well, gold is doing better, but unlike gold, TIPS are guaranteed to provide a real return, whereas gold has still not even come close to its 1980 peak in inflation adjusted terms. Easiest way to invest in TIPS is to buy the ETF ticker TIP.
Free advice to all the bozos out there. Take it for what it's worth.

spunky, citi was down today, again. MER still isn't at $54.60. I'm still richer than you are with my cash.

But Zizizi, MER gained today. By spunky's logic, that means it will gain tomorrow. And the next day, and the next day, and so on... Citi may have been down today, but the share price drop means nothing, as it will go up over the next five years. So let's not judge that investment or even compare it to the returns of another investment.

What was that? I think it was another day of real estate appreciation in Manhattan? Did you feel it?

no

I think the Dow will be back up over 12,000 tomorrow, after modest gains.

oooo - I think I felt it, JuiceMan....

Is it true that the 15 year mortgage rate is below 5% . Even with the price appreciation now might be the best time to purchase a property in Manhattan. If you have good credit you can get a mortgage on your apt at one of the lowest rates in history. Too bad the inventory is so dam low. Very few properties to select from.

Hey Zizi I was wondering if you can check how my Mer and C are doing today. Please get that quote machine of yours out.

inventory has risen the past 3 weeks..up about 7-10% or so from low hit in NOV/DEC..after many listings were taken off the market.

And to respond to your rates are lower, buy now theory, no one wants a depreciating asset! Im not saying anything about nYC real estate here because it will start a whole new thread, but you fail to realize that rates are lower because both bond market and fed funds rate are much lower due to the very dire economic situation. It was an emergency rate cut because things are so bad. How could you angle that into a positive on a hard asset like a home?

btw - 3 weeks no way makes a trend, just something to watch for o see if it continues because given the stock market selloff and headline shock, we must watch out for sales volume as I dont see how confidence wasn't shattered a bit over the past week or so.

spunky, jumbo? Where?

With the stock market getting hit, it may be that some people feel that real estate is a safer investment... (see 2001). I assume since the rest of the country has been in a housing recession for a while now, they may feel like its okay to buy? I don't know. Money has to go somewhere... if not stocks then where?

Activity is definitely up though. I was on the bus twice yesterday and the little old lady next to me each time was looking into real estate. The first had 3M in assets looking to buy a coop. The other was browsing 3BR apartments. Who knows if they buy or not, but people are definitely interested.

Juice - accroding to Radar Logic New York MSA saw 0.6% decline day over day as of 11/21/07 (63 day delay data), let me know how that felt...

Juiceman I heard that the 15 year mortgage was below 5% from CNN this morning. Not sure if they were referring to a Jumbo or conventional but would be my guess it wass the latter. Fact is that looks like we are at historic low levels which according to urbandigs is negative. People with good credit and the means to buy in Manhattan may disagree with urbandigs but those are not this target audience because they are serious buyers with the means to buy.
On the other hand Oberon is an example of one of urbandigs followers.

urbandigs although you view lower rates as a negative economic sign you can not dispute the fact that buyers will get more bang for their mortgaged buck.

so you have no rational response to the economic interpretation so you choose to do another personal attack spunky..every time you do that you make yourself appear that much less intelligent.

Are you incapable of having a serious conversation? Or is it hard with those blinders on? Anyway, done for today, I have to go to my 7 appointments with 6 different non serious buyers that I am working with.

spunky, one thing I follow is common sense...not Noah or any else for that matter...

I thought a Jumbo NYC coop/cond 30 year fixed was still around 7.25% - 7.5%

Oberon, thanks so much for your 63 day lag data. Now could you get me an blank newspaper, a wooden nickel, and bag with a hole in it? Those things would be much more useful to me than your data.

Urbandigs, I think you should rename your site, maybe "Mobius Strip"?

Urbandigs if you are convinced through your economic forecasts the Manhattan RE is going down why would you represent potential buyers. Thats like selling medicine that you know can be harmful.

Spunky - as though a RE agent would care?

Also, Spunky, if you're looking what UrbanDigs will say tomorrow--get to the site Seeking Alpha early.
By noon he will be on here like they were his own thoughts. At least yesterday he learned a new word/concept: capitulation. He was so psyched he had to turn on the caps. Now for weeks his clients (and us) have to listen to him.

"spunky, one thing I follow is common sense...not Noah" --Oberon now that's now that's actually funny

Hey Zizi where is my daily update quotes on Mer and C that you were so diligent with.

will stated yesterday "I think the Dow will be back up over 12,000 tomorrow, after modest gains."

Now that's what I'm talking about

DowJonesIndustrialAverage: +263.78 / +2.20% @ Jan 23 3:54pm ET

But...

"Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill According to a Merrill Lynch report, home prices will drop 15 percent this year, and declines will continue in 2009."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/real_estate/merrill_forecast/index.htm

"Here comes the bear The fiscal stimulus plan and emergency rate cuts failed to revive stocks. Can anything turn the market around?"
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/markets/markets_outlook/index.htm

Ah...What to make of it all...

God damn that was one bitch of a swing today, folks!

Anyone know how Mer and C did today?

eah - love the personal attacks, keep em coming! SeekingAlpha is a great site, but I dont even read it daily, and credited the site when they went into ARM reset discussion and explanation of ABX markets; which are still cliff diving by the way! If you want to know I do read for news/opinions and who influences my train of thought most its BR at The Big Picture, Calc Risk, Naked Capitalism, FT, & Ric Santelli.

But lets get right into what SeekingAlpha discusses today on great entry points! First off, one thing we know is that it will be a very volatile first half of 2008. With that said, investors that check their portfolio's many times a day or whose personality is similar to a trader, may get really hurt. We sold off 17% or so in 5 weeks, and fed cut 3/4 pts, of course a bounce is going to come! But is that the bottom? Prob not! Today EBAY warned..Yesterday APPLE, weeks ago AMEX & CAPITOL ONE..whats been on the sidelines recently is rising defaults! This will come back. So will slowdown in CRE sector. So will defaults on credit cards..Defaults rising everywhere! The securities derived from all these debts could get hurt. And the insurance taken out on these derivatives may be worthless unless a bailout of bond insurers occurs. Which brings me to today's rally. Rumour has it that there is a bond insurers bailout being discussed at NY state insurance association. Now while I agree that we cant let these guys go under or that will cause a systematic financial crisis, I just dont see how this bailout will be structured so that it actually works! This is very scary to me and represents the biggest shoe that may potentially drop; I hope it doesnt! It could affect us all.

Anyway, I am very sorry that the blog rubs you that way but your certainly entitled to your opinion. It would be nice to hear your thoughts on the situation besides your attacks and jokes. Spunky too.

here: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd4035f6-c9fe-11dc-b5dc-000077b07658.html

urbandigs always refreshing to read your consistent regurgitaion of negative economic news and outlook. Welcome back so how did your day go? You mentioned you had 6-7 appointments with potential buyers. Were you able to sell them any properties today.I am sure with your positive attitude and outlook on Manhattan properties coupled with your dynamic flexibility in thought process, you probably had a productive day.
How many offers did your buyers present to you? Were able to overcome any concerns or hesitation they had about making the plunge to purchase?

"so you have no rational response to the economic interpretation so you choose to do another personal attack spunky..every time you do that you make yourself appear that much less intelligent."

I disagree, he exhausted his appearance of any intelligence several hundred posts ago.

2 bids submitted spunky in past 3 days, both over $1M for my non serious bitter angry renters who cat even afford to buy..by why would you believe me anyway? Manhattan re in your mind only goes up. Its the only market ever designed that never goes down and anybody who even remotely mentions possibly correction, is immediately put into your heads junk folder.

Urbandigs thta's great. Looks like your are on a roll-like butter.Did you try to convince the potential buyers that now may not be the best time to buy. How possibly could you let yourself represent buyers who want to buy in a market that still needs to go down. Haven't you been reading what's going on in the economy?

Oh no urbandigs unemployment shot way up. You are right about rising unemployment on your blog site. You are so right. Unemployment is skyrocketing! Your financial forecasts are dead on correct. Anyone you ever doubted urbandigs about his predictions should be ashamed of themselves. Good job Urbandigs with the unemployment prediction.

urbandigs - Are the bids at ask, or if not, what is the average discount to ask of the offered bids you're seeing?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22820241

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120112113207710911.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120111917285710781.html?mod=hpp_us_inside_today

A lot of mixed news out there. Looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride this year. It is interesting, though, that the inventory of co-ops in Manhattan at the end of 2007 was down 26% from 2006, and the supply of condos was flat.

Things seem to be staying strong in Manhattan for the moment. One thing I have noticed is that reporters/writers begin discussing Manhattan, then switch quickly to "New York metro area" and offer grimmer statistics. Given that this counts all four boroughs, upstate, and parts of NJ and Conn., yeah, things may take a dip.

Sorry, I meant five boroughs.. I am kind new to New York. Just realized Brooklyn wasn't part of the Bronx.

Spunky: "Oh no urbandigs unemployment shot way up. You are right about rising unemployment on your blog site. You are so right."

... allow me to say how refreshing it is to see a man acknowledge the superior intellect and abilities of his adversary. I tip my hat to you Mr. Spunky.

One is 1% below ask for new dev..The other was 3% below ask for existing condo...Oh, apparently I predicted unemployment will skyrocket in todays IJC report..I didnt, but spunky said so..He is vastly superior and is a breath of fresh air!

Everyone buy Manhattan re and rent out for a profit like Spunky! Ready! go!

"One is 1% below ask for new dev..The other was 3% below ask for existing condo"

Urbandigs, you have to feel pretty good about that. Would you mind sharing the neighborhoods?

The new dev will prob work out, the other one prob wont. Yea I feel fine. Buyers are out there, and people have a real reason to buy a home. But confidence has dropped. Spunky will never believe me of course, but who the F cares. Buyers are just a bit hesitant right now to bid very aggressively given whats going on.

One in FiDi, one in E 60s..

urbandigs, have to agree with you on that. I've seen a few places this week, and all but one of the brokers acknowledged (to varying degrees) what's going on, and that as a buyer, "this may be my year." The only one who was still living in '07-land told me that she overheard an offer to the seller while we were viewing the place, so I should act quickly, and then promptly sent me an email with a dozen listings in an area I told her I was lukewarm about. This is why I've been doing the search on my own.

this is not the bottom. People will sell into this bear market rally. You can't slam Urbandigs for believing (correctly) that any market - NYC or otherwise - is not immune from an economic downturn.

I own a 1BR in midtown east - my broker claims inventory is still down and it probably still is... but what about 6 - 9 months when wall street continues to cut jobs and the bonus pools shrink.

Just look at the thread for the Charleston. Would price reductions or sponsor picking up closing costs have happened 6 months ago? even 3 months ago?

urbandigs - did you negotiate anything with closing costs in the new dev ?

urbandigs - I'm not one to tell you how to do your job, but I'd be a little careful about discussing status and tactics of live negotiations on a popular messageboard. You're not anonymous.

Agreed. I would ask streeteasy to remove that post.

true..i realized that the moment I pushed the button..mistake. I doubt the FiDi developer is checking these boards though.

Agree with juiceman. You should ask them to remove it.

done already..waiting for them to confirm.

urbandigs - i don't go to your site and posts attacks there. that's your world. i do it here becuase it is where i find you the most "broker like" and where you exhibit attack worhty behaviour...like discussing live negotations.
and in terms of thoughts/opinions - i will debate with you when you say something original and not something i read the night before. or when you enter the industry. you very much like a precocious 16 year old girl..a bit amusing/a bit annoying but very much moved by yourself.

This is becoming more and more ironic as we move along - apparently emergency rate cut by the fed on Tuesday morning was spurred by SocGen unwinding their rogue S&P futures trades through European markets (the ones that resulted in almost 7 bil dollar loss) ...of course they'll never admit that, but just connect the dots...goes to show that Fed shouldn't be standing on their knees facing the street, and let things unravel naturally as they should...

UrbanDigs - I find your blog interesting and the personal attacks against you pathetic. I have been thinking of referring a friend to you. She is looking for a decent broker with no luck so far.

Now I see that you have disclosed negotiation tactics on a live deal. Unfortunately, I can no longer in good conscience recommend you to anyone. The desire to be part of an interesting community of real estate mavens can NEVER trump your duties to customers.

This is not a blast on you personally. I hope you take this post constructively and learn from this experience.

Cmon now, you're all being a bit harsh on him. I for one am interested in what urbandigs has to say although I may not agree all the time. Keep up the good work.

nah, def a lack of judgment on my part to go into detail. Not that I think it will effect the outcome of this deal at all since the bldg is unknown, and Im sure developer has better things to do than read this board and this forum. But, def wish streeteasy would remove already.

eah - just because you are thinking of 16 yr old girls, don't call me one. Why dont you give us an original idea? Oh wait, you cant

urbandigs I have come to the conclusion that you are never wrong. At least not in your own mind.

ouch Noah. let me troll some sites for a good comeback i can steal and use on you.
back in a few...

meanwhile, enjoy marinating in the fact that you are now, oficially, and truly - just another, slimy RE broker and not the hedge fund manager/market oracle you think you are.

lol..you got me eah! again, nothing to say but a redirect. At least this thread makes online apt searching less boring.

Ill enjoy marinating!

when my non-compete ends i am very much going to miss this site.

BTW, Noah--I was delighted to be mentioned by name on your site. Though--to clarify--you've mistaken my dislike of you to mean I think NYC in immune to housing issues. This is not the case. I simply don't care about a correction at the moment because I am not investing much in the US markets; regardless of the asset class. I have one property in Manhattan that I think might possibly not play out as well as expected but the others are solid, cash flowing entities. The reason I buy a property a year is to offset sthe inevitable errors. When I am buying for personal use I rarely consider appreciation. I purchsed a home in the south of France which probably has very little chance of appreciating wildly and also has some significant second home carrying costs. But, I love it. Which brings me to why I think your site is flawed: people buy for investment or pleasure and macro/micro trends almost never play a part in the decision. I am a quant. at heart and still never look at the analysis when buying.

eah - feeling is mutual. Your flaw is, you think everyone is like you. There are alot of people out there that are interested in learning about investing in real estate here in Manhattan. They dont know much about it, the market, what to put their money towards, how co-ops work, how much renovations may cost, how monthly costs should impact purchase price, how the transaction process works, what features pay off best at resale and for rental income, what neighborhoods should get premiums and what shouldn't, what neighborhood amenities help to retain resale value, etc..and on and on.

What you call flawed, others call a nice resource. All I do is give tips as I learn them and offer my opinions, yes my opinions, based on what I see and think is going on. You disagree, fine. Obviously you know whats going on out there, only took 400+ posts on this thread to get it out of you. Also, not everyone can buy a property a year, and rather, this is the biggest and scariest investment they have ever made!

Ok--let's place this on a respectful level and leave the towel snapping behind for a minute; i think your analysis (and all the hysteria on curbed/here/insert your blog) is what makes it scary. it's no different than deciding to have a baby in that there is really no good time and inevitably after you make the decision some major life elements shifts. and i also disagree that most people are not in a positon to buy a property a year. maybe if they overstretch it will be hard but if they are on the fringe of affording a neighborhood why not send them to Washington Heights, Red Hook, and so on so they still have cash for a second property/cushion to ride out a storm. Soon they will be on a cycle upwards.

eah, I never understood why people like you get on this site and opine about how stupid every one is for reading it. Dude, if this is beneath you, move on. I don't get it. You are obviously wildly successful, stinking rich, a real estate mogul, an actor, royalty, and at one point probably part of the 96 Yankees and New Kids on the Block. That’s great! I'm really fucking happy for you. Now explain to me again, why are you here? What wisdom are you trying so badly to share with us?

call him Donnie

Holy Mackerel we are now at 475 posts

Donnie who ?

This thread will never make it off the ground. Too much dead weight.

I believe that would be Donnie Walberg, back when his brother was Marky Mark.

JuiceMan relax: a few posts up you said I bore you. Now, you're all worked up. I am on this site because most of the topics are interesting. Like how to add a fireplace in your home, lawsuits against brokers and so on. If you notice I never claim to be wealthy or gave an opinion on how to get wealthy I merely explained to Noah where our philosophies part. I do not tihnk this site is beneath me; I quite enjoy it.

If I had to be one of the New Kids, I would likely have wanted to be the one that became the actor--the model one. Sadly, I was never an actor though I will try to work some hyperbole in about that in the future.

eah, fair enough, but you come across as a dickhead. I don't agree with Noah most of the time either, but it is no reason to be an ass about it. Part of what makes this site interesting is differing points of view right? Lighten up, we'll all have some fun here.

Wasn't the only actor that came out of the New Kids Donnie, Marky Marks brother?

eah: "I am a quant at heart and still never look at the analysis when buying."

... that means you're not a quant, at heart or in reality.
As a quant, at heart and at work, I always look at my analysis when making trading decisions.

Thats why I'm not buying anything in Manhattan until the prices come down and Noah gets me a great deal on spunkys pre-foreclosure.

As a quant, at heart and at work, I always look at my analysis when making trading decisions. <---we part right at the point at which you view RE as a trading decision. I do not. I view it is a long term proposition. If I WERE trading RE in the short term I would dive into the analysis but that is not my RE strategy. You time markets (or so it seems) and I prefer a slow steady. Part of the reason I am a quant and not a cowboy is my inherent risk aversion.

I think we should ask streeteasy to disable this thread or split some ad revenue with us and buy everyone drinks

Thanks StreetEasy for now only showing the 100 most recent comments. Scrolling down through 400 every time I checked the thread was getting cumbersome.

Finally! A comment a gal can embrace! Won't don't you boys get over the pissing contest and make nice over a beverage or three?

I enjoy your site, Noah. New to the game and learning alot. Also enjoy the lively discussion on here, when the sniping is kept at a respectable level, that is.

If you exchange cash for an apartment – that’s a trade regardless of how long or short term your view is. For the record, I don’t have a short term view on RE prices. You can not objectively analyze all the macro and local factors and insist that residential real estate on the island of Manhattan is appropriately valued. It’s just not.

2 years ago I had the same argument about national US prices and that was not a popular opinion because it was too far off the status quo. Of course everyone is a sub prime expert now and “why didn’t the banks see that coming”. I had the same equally unpopular view on London only 6 months ago and you’re starting to see prices dropping there.

Looking at all the same data elements for Manhattan and drawing similar conclusions why would the analysis be flawed now?

Let me paraphrase my view on Manhattan: I expect to see significantly lower prices within the next 18 months, with high probability. The opportunity cost of being wrong is almost zero, i.e. I assign almost zero probability to the up 20% scenario. So there is no reason to buy now – you’re only exposed to downside risk.

eah you’re a quant at heart – what yield would you want on a bond with equivalent risk 6%, 7% ? If you put a 6 or 7% required return on RE prices you’re flying in the face of reason by making the decision to buy.

TheStreets - A more perfect example of the "begging the question fallacy" I have never encountered. You should teach Logic for Dummies. Thanks!

Wall Street Journal: "One important provision temporarily raises the dollar limit on mortgages that can be bought or guaranteed by government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The current limit of $417,000 would rise above $600,000 and perhaps as high as $730,000 in the most expensive areas, congressional leaders said." This would apparently expire on December 31.

This would be huge for the studio and one bedroom condo market in Manhattan in 2008. Given this, other aspects of the federal stimulus package, and the likelihood of another Fed Rate cut next week, it seems that the strong Manhattan housing market will remain strong.

In addition, wouldn't it be great if NYC raised the threshold for the mansion tax?

Oh my goodness is this dude The Streets full of himself or what? Do you really think anyone is at all impressed except for yourself in what you have to say.You have the be the bigest bulls-t artist on this freaking board. What a moron. I almost had to puke reading your BS

Spunky, did you almost puke when you visualized Urbandigs selling me your pre-foreclosure apartment next Christmas ?

I specifically said it's not a popular view so I don't expect you to like what I'm saying and frankly I don't care what you think - it's a view that has paid off handsomly in '07 and thats all that matters.

Why don't you head on over to urbandigs.com and watch the inventory numbers tick up as your equity ticks down.

Will - moving the agency securitization limit from 417k to 600k will reduce the conforming / non-conforming spread on loans between 417k and 600k. The spread is currently running around 100-120 bps. When there is sufficient capital in the mortgage markets the spread runs about ten times less than that. Assuming a 30yr fixed rate mtge on 600k @ 6.4% the loan balance would first come under the 417k conforming limit in about 15 years (assuming no prepayments). This 600k non-conforming loan costs about $440 more per month than it would at the current conforming rate of 5.25%. Assume the spread stays at 100bps (doesn't come back in during the next 15 years). Assume also that our borrower makes zero prepayments and only refinances in 15 years when the mortgage becomes conforming. The present value of his $440 monthly payment is about $50k. 50k is the theoretical maximum value of governments proposal to a small subset of home buyers. i.e. the ones with outstanding balances between 417k and 600k. The assumptions were also unrealistic: 1) when capital returns to the markets the spread will come in to its long run average 2) the borrower has the option to prepay and would do so when able if faced with a 100bps spread. 3) he has the option to refinance into more favorable terms if available 4) we assumed he is starting with a balance at the new upper limit – taking full advantage of the lower financing – anything less than 600k and you don’t save $440/month.

Assuming 20% down it’s worth nothing to anybody with a home costing less than 520k or more than 750k (912k if they go to the higher limit).

Realistically this proposal will save a small subset of people a few hundred dollars a month for a few years. (Outside of Manhattan a much larger % of homes obviously fall in this range.) You can try a whole range of scenarios and get different values for what this change is really worth to the home buyer. If it happened tomorrow morning and things take several years to recover then it could be worth 5k or 10k to some people. If they drag their feet on it and the capital markets recover quickly it would be worthless. I can’t possibly see a scenario where this is worth 20k to anybody and even at that rate it’s not going to set Manhattan on fire.

not only do I agree with The Streets who correctly explains the breakdown of this move, but you have to ask yourself: WILL THIS MOVE MAKE THOSE WHO SHOULDNT BUY REAL ESTATE, BUY?

Everyone is hell bent over blaming Greenspan for 1% ffr for so long and for applauding financial innovations that made home ownership more affordable for those that couldnt really afford it. Now look where we are! So I wonder. This raising of conforming will certainly help refi's, and will help those who can afford a mortgage, but will it RAISE BUDGETS?

My question is, will it bring more people into the serious buyer pool here in Manhattan, AND/OR will it raise the purchase price of affordability of those about to buy?

Thestreets, if I am a buyer on the fence (and I think there are a lot running around Manhattan these days!) or a foreign investor, and I am looking for a property in the 600-700K range, and my 30 yr fixed prospective mortgage will be treated as a conforming loan for 5.5% before Dec. 31, or as a jumbo loan 6.5% after December 31, I will start going to more open houses coming this Sunday.

Frankly, I wish the limit would be raised to 1,000,000.

will - the PV of this limit change is 5k or 10k for the people you are talking about. And i think thats a generous estimate. You should be indifferent to the lower interest rate or an asking price that is 5k-10k less. Thats around 1% of the home value. It will only bring to the market those people who are not buyers now because they feel apartments in the 600-700k range are overvalued by about 1%. Exclude from this list the people who intend to put down more that 35%-ish which would make the loan confrming under todays limits. I don't think the US agencies are going to be secuitizing any loans for the Europeans either so remove the foreign buyers too. You're left with a list of effectively zero people and those who can't do the analysis. The latter might show up to the open houses but once they sit down with their mortgage brokers and realise it makes little difference I think you will see few closings that would not have happened otherwise.

There are always very creative ways of looking at inventory trends in Manhattan. Urbandigs to prove his point and tries to paint a bleak picture is to work the numbers in such a way as to show an increasing trend. He takes yesterdays inventory number and compares to just 30 days ago showing a 400 unit difference.

Now the trend in 2007 was the following -Q1 5934 Q2 5923,Q3 5204, Q4,5133, As of today according to Street Easy the inventory is 5,296. Keep in mind in 2006 Q1 was at 6904. Okay so Q1 6904 in 2006 and in 2007 Q1 was at 5934, a decreasing trend. In 2008 we are now at 5236. So still a decreasing trend even if inventory rises from now till March 31st which I expect it to due to the historical (seasonal) nature of the inventory numbers for Q1. No surprise therefore that inventory numbers have increased over the past 30 days.

I am just curious what the inventory trends are in West Village, GV, Tribeca and SoHo those are the areas I am just interested in anyways. My opinion those areas will continue to remain strong in 2008.

spunky - I admitted wholeheartedly that inventory dropped 20% since Q4 2006, on a number of occasions and admitted that inventory is still tight in NYC, and that without fierce seller competition you will NOT see any sig price declines.

With that said, all I discussed was the expectation of rising inventory for the sole reason that confidence has dropped significantly in past few months due to credit crisis, and if sales volume drops, inventory should build. Thats all I said! Paint it any other way you want as I know you will. Read my stuff and this is what you will see on public domain from months ago. I believe 2008 will be the reversal of declining inventory trends in NYC as in my opinion, buyer confidence trumps everything and buyers are the key to the market. Without them, fundamentals change over time.

What you failed to mention Urbandigs was that historically Q1 has higher inventories and then you go on to show a chart over the past 30 days with invnetory rising in Manhattan. I believe that was a minor point that you should of discussed right from the get go otherwise most of you followers like The Street were bamboozled. Then again thestreet is a moron to begin with so he really doesn't count anyway.

BTW where is Zizi with my Mer and C quotes? Where has that little rascal been for the past several days anyway?

TheStreets, you savage you...trying to chase me off the boards with talks of bond yields. I was up all night scrathing my head over that. DID YOU NOT HEAR ME...I buy one property every single year. If a dirty bomb was dropped, I would sit and ponder the situation, I'd buy. I did it after 9/11. I've purchased in Malaysia after I spent time working in emerging markets. I've purchased in South America. Some explode in value while other just cover their costs. Is my strategy 100%? Of course not. But, on balance, it works out very well for me. In the early days it was a logistical bitch without a property manager but now it is, for me, an excellent proposition. My priorities with real estate are cash flow and international travel.

I can't speak for everyone but at a certain income bracket you stop obsessing over the mirco details and track on more of a five year trend than the minute to minute.

TheStreets, interesting point. Understand your PV calculation, but you may be discounting the psychological impact for all that don't do the calculation - which I would argue is more than zero. As we have seen over the past few years, cheap money inspires neurotic behavior and has little to do with common financial sense.