where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

First off, Noah is not talking the market down, nor is he trying to. No matter how many times he posts it here or on his site he says you should still buy if your time-to-own is right and you’re sufficiently capitalized. Presenting arguments for why we might see a price correction is not “talking the market down” – it’s integrity. He’s an expert on real estate. Clients using him as a broker are entitled to his expert opinion without the spin – that’s what they are paying for. I’m in the market for a 2 or 3 br apartment on the UES or UWS and Noah is my broker. I don’t waste his time dragging him to open houses etc when I know I’m not going to buy for at least 6 months. But we maintain a continual dialogue and go to properties time permitting. When I/we do decide that the time is right for me too buy he is going to get the sale – no question. Why? Because he’s the only broker I have met who clearly acts in the best interests of his clients, always presents both sides of the argument, can distinguish fact from opinion about the market and never feels the need to spin shit to me. That’s why I trust him. I met him first at a new dev and the first words out of his mouth were “I don’t like this place”. How many brokers would say that? That’s why he’ll get my purchase in 6-12 months and he’ll get the next purchase after that and he’ll get my sales too.

This will be almost incomprehensible to many here, but the easiest way to make a living in real estate, or any business, is by knowing what you’re doing, working hard and acting with honesty and integrity.

TheStreets well said! Sounds like you have developed a true mutual partnership with Urbandigs. Although I have a difference of opinion I do admire your partnership that's built on a foundation of trust and I wish you both the best of luck.

TheStreets: you seem like an informed person. I have to ask: why do you need a broker? This is not a knock on Noah...just a question. You can out in your own bid and make the sellers agent do the work?

eah - I have a couple of different reasons.

I'm assuming that whoever I'm buying from is going to take 6% of the money I give them and give it to their selling broker, so I'm paying 6% commission already – I might as well divert half of it to someone who’s going to help me before hand. I can’t imagine what kind of bargaining I could do with a selling broker – I could probably get him to kick back 1.5% of the commission to me or something like that, so that he makes 4.5% and I get the place for 1.5% less but pay taxes on 100% so it’s really something less than 1.5%. To me <1.5% is not worth the risk of missing something that a very good broker would have caught. So that’s the cost analysis argument.

The more compelling factor is that Noah brings a tremendous amount of value to the process. Taking the typical commission split, where each broker ends up with 1.5% in their pocket, I don’t think it’s an excessive or unreasonable amount for the services he provides to me. It kills me that the two brokerage houses also get 1.5% each, but Noah can justify his share. It seems like an awful lot of money – 1.5% would be $30k on a $2mm apartment – but I have two things to say about that.

One, is that I have every intention of becoming a huge pain in his ass as the purchase date approaches so that on an hourly basis it’s not that much. :-)

Two, is that people still seem to have a problem paying for professional services. Value doesn’t have to come in the form of materials – like coal and grain. People hate paying doctors and lawyers too. My doctor was gob smacked one day when I offered to reimburse him for a very expensive test that the insurance company wouldn’t cover completely. When this guy is telling me to cough twice I want him fully focused and enthusiastic about the job at hand. :-) Noah brings his expert opinion to the table, has the experience of closing more RE deals than I will in my life and is on the ground seeing the real action in real time – not with 3 months lag. He’s also fulltime looking at properties – if I communicate correctly with him there is no way I can “out search him” with Streeteasy and the NY Times. With his negotiating skills and knowledge of what has worked in the past, and what has not, he can easily make his commission back in raw economic terms. I’m a “professional” in the financial industry and I get compensated solely for my “expert opinion” – why shouldn’t he.

Combine all that with the in-depth knowledge he exhibits on Urbandigs.com, his integrity and his no spin delivery and I don’t see a reason not to use him.

I wouldn’t say that about many other brokers – I certainly haven’t met them if they are out there.
I will point out that Douglas Headings (http://www.truegotham.com/) comes across as being an individual of similar integrity. Read his blog post titled “Agent/Buyer Miscommunication” – that kind of self analysis and criticism is indicative of the kind of people you want to surround yourself with.
If I want someone in a short skirt to show me streeteasy listings and tell me what a great buy everything is I can just go to Scores or Flash Dancers.

Always curious on the thought process, thanks for the serious answer...
I tend to not use brokers but see your point. It just seemed odd that you'd nee done since you seem fairly plugged in on your own.

I would just like to say at 600 posts and still going strong, that I'm very pleased with myself.

And thanks to TheStreets for such a cogent reply above. Makes good sense to me.

wow STREETS! I'll pay you that $100 at teh next showing! Seriously though, I appreciate the words. I do work hard for my clients and tell it like it is. Glad to see someone appreciate that. And no, I will never do as many deals as a cheerleader broker who excels at marketing/selling the deal; always be closing baby!

thats fine with me.

What's up with all of this cross-promotion?!?! urbandigs, while you are quite knowledgable and play broker-friendly with a tinge of "I'm fighting for the reluctant, cautious buyer," this shamless self-promotion on street easy is a tad much. You are doing injustice to your brand by continuously stooping to amateur blogger's levels by commenting on this very tired thread. 600 posts...c'mon, maintain your integrity and hit the streets! It isn't an easy profession due to its scapegoat nature, but my experience when I bought 8 months ago was to immerse myself in the market, learn as much as I could, and make the best decision. I tend to negotiate for everything and felt that since I represented myself sans broker, I could use that as leverage to knock off 3% off the price, along with the transfer taxes from the sponsor. It worked and I didn't need a broker, panting down my neck for my commission.
Nevertheless, I do value your opinion and others on this board.

Agree Curious. My opinion is the pnyl way to get the right property is to commit yourself to the process and do it yourself.

Early this morning (about 100 post ago) zizi wrote "spunky, it was a fun night as Asia and Europe have decided they sort of like the levels suggested last week. Are you still loving your stock positions this morning?"

Yes zizi I am still loving my Mer and C stock positions. Not sure how they fared since this morning but for some reason I haven't heard from you all day. I can only assume they exceeded your expectations in reverse.

Whatever happened to Pseudonym?

What do you mean?

He posted a lot last year. He would get really pissed off and go on these rants. Pretty funny stuff.

malraux that question you asked was should be deducted from the total post count.It was a lead question requiring an answer. No double dipping allowed.

Some interesting observations from CNBC:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22881942

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22882679

Pseudonym is now malraux.

Isn't that obvious?

Both have been thru the last RE down cycle and made tons of money. Both have new construction penthouses that they love and got thru their attorney who deals with new construction, both are buying new property when the right one comes up in prime hoods, and both have tried to make bets with anon posters on streeteasy on the magnitude of a drop in RE prices, and although he has toned things down somewhat, malraux is still prone to his old habits when the going gets tough.

Finkel is Einhorn

An interesting perspective.

http://www.truegotham.com/archives/market-insight-more-on-why-property-is-king-in-manhattan-real-estate.html

I was wondering when pseudonym/malraux would get outed. I've always liked him so didn't want to do it:)

Alas, in a awkward moment of silence, crickets can be heard in the New York City distance, as 3 posters each realize they have been arguing with only two other people for 28 days, each of whom have been using various "pseudonyms" to pretend to be other people bolstering their argument. As the number of posts cross 600, the realization that a colossal waste of waking hours has done little to fill the empty void in the lives of three... A tumbleweed blows across 5th avenue, and the three slowly log off of their computers, push aside the empty chinese food containers and proceed to join the real world once again. Ha ha, just kidding, you guys are great. Keep it up, I am anxiously awaiting the definitive winner here, and the endless mocking that is sure to follow.

Poetry, Pops. Poetry.

WILL - thats what happens when you price a mint condition unit 50K LOWER than a last sold 4 months ago! Its a great selling strategy as long as owner agrees to trust the broker and marketing efforts, and bypass test the market and price at 1.2M

Thanks Urbandigs. My sense is that there's been some stealth price softness for more than a few months so this doesn't surprise me.

Looks like the national economic picture is not so bleak as we thought given recent corporate earnings reports, last week's jobs reports, and today's report on durable goods orders. Plus prospective fed rate cut, stimulus package etc,

Might we dodge a bullet this year?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22894241

well durable goods really shouldnt have been a surprise...GE came out weeks ago and said those companies/those businesses are doing well. Its the consumer/housing/MBS/CMBX/CDO's etc that is all messed up. If it wasn't for that we'd be flying on all four global cylinders! There WILL be boom times again, as helicopter ben will inflate us out of this mess eventually, its the pain of getting through it that is really the question in my mind.

I hope this doesnt change what the fed will do tomorrow. Stocks priced in 50 bsp, if he cuts less, we'll prob selloff again.

Yes, there are some well priced properties out there and they ARE selling fast. Its busy now. I wont deny it. I have tons of buy side calls/requests, my townhouse is getting tons of action, and properties I go to always have multiple showings that we are stuck in middle. But inventory is still tight, options limited, and for most part, prices still high and buyers are not jumping in unless real value is seen.

Right strategy is to take advantage of this action, price right, get the herd in, and get multiple bids, hopefully over ask and sell fast! If listing is on market for 4+ months and 2-3 price cuts, every buyer sees that and that hurts chances to get top dollar in the end. Gets a bit stale.

Urbandigs, good post yesterday on timing the market, sound advice. Now can you tell your family to stop logging onto Streeteasy as TheStreets?

Oh Oh I knew that was coming. Are you saying that thestreets can actually be Urbandigs or is thestreets urbandigs older brother. In either case that would mean we were all duped. Kind of funny if you think about it.

haha..I assure you streets is an actual person outside the Rosenblatt family tree.

Well can it thestreets be one of your writers on your blogsite or possibly another RE broker in your office that you go out to lunch with. I only bring this up because of the Juiceman That juiceman always the controversial one.

LOL - I'm insulted - I'm much better looking than urbandigs

Urbandigs, is the info re inventory on your website NYC-wide or Manhattan?

a) island of manhattan
b) coops, condo, townhouse
c) duplicate listing removed
d) only counts listings with exact address listed; eliminates open listings (W 40s, UES Luxury 1BR, etc. ads)

still in BETA, but data seems to be more accurate than I thought it would be at this time..off to showings, not sure how I will survive the next 5 hours away from this forum.

Urbandigs will your associate thestreets be helping you out today at the showings.

Einhorn is Finkel.

For those interested, I got quote for 0 point jumbo refinance at 6.75% for 30yr fixed and 6.125% 7/1 ARM, before the rate cut today. Some of the cut may have been priced in already but it is what it is.

Zizi Zizi where art thou. I'm looking for my updated quotes.

JuiceMan, if you have an excellent credit rating, those rates leave a lot to be desired. On the 7/1 ARM you should easily get quoted under 6%.

Thanks csn, I do. What bank?

Spunky - C at 27.59 after hours(-$0.50); MER at 55.51 after hours (-$1.90). Bond insurer downgraded and some $500B+ in CDO's either lowered ratings or going to be lowered by S & P. It seems the heroin Big Ben gave out today wasn't enough to plunge wall street into their drug induced fantasy land for too long. Reality came up and ruined the party.

Oh well. Tomorrow is another day. Let's just see where we will be at the end of the year Urbandigs.

JuiceMan, try Chase, Citi and Wells Mortgage. I was quoted 5.75% at Wells for a 7/1 but went with a 5/1. My circumstances are a little different than most but this rate was also not for a primary home which normally would be an even better rate.

CSN - how much down on that? % down also impacts rates.

20%

Citi bites. Manhattan Mortgage is good place to start.

whats everyones opinion on using a mtge broker vs going to banks and shopping around - can brokers get you rates that you just can get yourself ?

thestreets just out of curiosity was one of the smoke clear indicators a start of consistent yet annoying noise that almost sounds like a high pitched siren from the misses. You know the screaming high pitch voice that says "Oh for crying out loud stop with your stupid economic forcasts and buy me a damn apt already otherwise I"ll make your life miserable.
Just one of many indicators that economists fail to take in consideration.

Spunky, I did my very best to understand that last post in the context of the question I just asked. Then I tried to understand it in any context. Your post makes no sense at all. I'm genuinely embarrassed for you.

Spunky, I think you are mistaking indicators- that is the "you chose the wrong misses" indicator, combined with the "she chose her "mister" for the wrong reason" indicator. Its funny how those two sometimes chime at the same time.

thestreets sorry I didn't answer your your following question--- can brokers get you rates that you just can get yourself? I think you should check with your office associate, other screenname or friend relative whatever. After all true partnership is when you trust your broker to help you get financing and place you want . This way he gets you the best deal, you get the place you want. You see thestreets its a win win situation. But your so smart you probably know that stuff anyway. After all it can't be anymore complex than your smokescreen indicators.

That was helpful Spunky. Thank you. And it's "missus", you clown, not "misses".

MISSUS: informal term of address for someone's wife.
MISSES: disadvantage or regret resulting from loss; a failure to hit; a failure to attain a desired result.

Now that your post is intelligible it's just stupid.

Urbandigs please tell your business associate (the one that is two cubicles to the left of you) that he is spending way to much time on Wikipedia looking up "the definition of "missus". Your buddy needs to consult with you about a mortgage rate for an apt that he has no intention of buying due to his economic indicators not crosses over one another. He's one of those prospective buyers that you may want to put in your "hurry up an wait" tickler file.

csn, that actually was a Chase quote. Bastards. I'll try Wells, that is a good rate for a 7/1. Also look into Manhattan Mortgage, kylewest. Thanks for the insight.

TheStreets, I found mortgage brokers will get you the same rate as banks, but with lower closing costs. Before the credit explosion, they would close a loan for pretty much nothing because they made all their $$ on the back end selling the loan. My guess is that those days are over and the only advantage is a half a point in origination fees or something like that. My recommendation would be to go through a bank for a new purchase and explore brokers for a refinance. There is too much that can go wrong at closing with a broker (I learned the hard way) and I will never use a broker for a new purchase ever again. On a refinance, there is less time pressure so if they screw something up, you can recover more easily

"I will never use a broker for a new purchase ever again"

pardon my crappy English

That mortgage info will be very helpful to him. Unfortuantely by the time he closes in 2045 the rates might be different.

Thanks JuiceMan - you make a very good point about the consequences of 'problems' when closing on a purchase.

Spunky - I plan to make so much money from buying your foreclosure in 2009 that I won't need a mortgage for anything come 2045

Here an article from the Gotham that you may find interesting. Thestreets please ignore this for it contradicts all your economic forecasts . You best just stay on the sidelines and wait for your smoke clearing signals to give you the green light.

Posted on January 30, 2008
Who Turned On the Manhattan Real Estate Market Again?

I don't know exactly what is going on but the Manhattan real estate market is churning white hot yet again. I'm having difficulty finding the time to blog. For example, here's just how today went:

* Highest, best and final offer for property first offered this past Sunday. 7 "final" offers (3 dropped out...intimidated) of which 6 were way over ask.
* Contract out to be signed tomorrow on property that received multiple offers last week after a board turn-down and 4 months on the market.
* Contract out to be signed tomorrow on another property which also received multiple offers after 5 months on the market.
* 10:30AM-11:30AM-met with buyers to view 2 properties: one didn't have the view they like and the other is a viable option. Awaiting there call to see if they want to bid. 50/50 chance I think.
* 12:15PM-5PM-with buyer viewing new development projects with pools. Bidding on something we saw.
* Email to follow-up with prospective seller.
* Appointments arranged for buyer to visit property 2nd time with architect.
* Expediting closing for 2BR.
* Phone call with seller who may want to sell 3BR East side Condo to purchase Townhouse.
* Email with seller who wants to see 3BR fixer-upper and may sell Classic 9.
* Right now...doing searches for 2 prospective purchasers who are ready to buy ASAP.
* Going home to see my wife and kids!

All in a day's work. I love this job!!!

And BTW...my colleagues seem to be incredibly busy too! Our top agent put 6 new exclusives into the system TODAY. Anyone else care to share what's happening in their business or with their searches?

i knew ud yerk to that one

JuiceMan could you explain what you feel are the dangers of working with a mortgage broker?

Thanks.

Mel, I was baited and switched at the last minute when I used a mortgage broker last time. I went direct to the bank this time. If you have good credit, I believe you'll see lower fees and lower rates. Also, check your place of employment, they may have relationships with certain banks. Also with current credit conditions (and to try to keep some level of competition), I kept two banks on the burner just in case the first one fell through. Hope that helps!

I should also say that I've heard that some people have had positive experiences while keeping the same mortgage broker for many transactions so its probably not a hard and fast rule.

agreed aifamm. I didn't mean to imply that all mortgage brokers are bad, I had a bad experience and when the shit hit the fan, I would have liked to have been working directly with the lender rather than a broker. There are a multitude of things that can go wrong during the loan process (with or without a mortgage broker). The difference being, is that when things go south, I feel you have more leverage working directly with the bank. My particular situation was an error in the loan amount, which resulted in either delaying closing 2-3 weeks or coming up with more $$ upfront that we wanted to. I chose the latter because I was under the gun to move, but am still bitter about it. The issue was missed because I was working through a 3rd party and I didn't have the same transparency as I would have working directly with a lender. Or, I just had a really shitty broker.

When a lender makes a mistake, they will jump on the grenade for you. When a broker makes a mistake, prepare for flesh wounds. This is especially critical during the purchase process, when time is so critical. Add that to the fact that the only thing a broker offers is a slight discount on closing costs, I’ll go with a lender for now on.

I have had the experience that aifamm describes. I have worked with the same broker over the course of many years now on multiple transactions, and have found him to be transparent, resourceful, organized, and proactive. He has made it his business to call me when things change regarding rates, on a daily basis, if need be. He knows the market incredibly well (both Manhattan and Brooklyn), and has been a pleasure to work with on all fronts. In addition, this is done for a fixed cost which you know about up front, and there have never been 'surprise' or hidden additional costs. In fact, as I have used him repeatedly, he has waived some costs for being a good repeat customer.

I do not agree in all cases that you have better leverage working directly with a bank, as JuiceMan suggests. In my case, because the MB does a great deal of business and is well respected by multiple lending institutions, and because I have an excellent track record and very strong credit/financials, my MB has on repeated occassions got banks to agree to terms or delete fees that otherwise a direct approach would not have acheived. I also believe that in the same way your lawyer is better negotiating on your behalf with a seller rather than you doing it directly, the same applies to the use of a (good) mortgage broker on your behalf with a bank.

Just my experience. But I'm quite sure it's very easy to get burned as well.

You guys should consider reading this book.

Mortgage Ripoffs and Money Savers: An Industry Insider Explains How to Save Thousands on Your Mortgage or Re-Fi (Paperback) by Carolyn Warren (Author)

http://www.amazon.com/Mortgage-Ripoffs-Money-Savers-Thousands/dp/0470097833

Among other things it gives you the pros and cons of working with a Mortgage broker. MBs are required by law to tell you the yield spread premium whereas banks can refuse to give it to you b/c they can say they are using their own money.

Hey spunky, how are C and MER doing today?

Mer and C must be doing okay today otherwise zizi and urbandigs would certainly of updated. They love reporting all kinds of negative stuff. BTW Juiceman thanks for egging me on --I needed that.

your doing fine spunky! Its all about the insurers for your short term financials play! Right now, talk is of combined bank effort to bail them out. I just dont see how the very banks who have to look to sovereign wealth funds for capital, are now going to save the insurers and the trillions worth of MBS they covered. Losses could be in hundreds of billions and is dependent on national housing. If housing keeps falling, delinquencies will rise and more problems from these securities will pop up. I think its a nice smokescreen and short squeeze. Economy is clearly slowing, as evidence by awful jobs report and downward revisions to 2007 jobs data.

I cant help but recall the combined Super SIV that rallied the banks months ago but ultimately failed just like many said they would. Its clear that ratings agencies are being pressured to hold off downgrading insurers as that will spark a new wave of financials selloff. If you avoid that, you dodged a big bullet. Time will tell. I dont want the economy to go into any recession, but it appears a very likely scenario. Im sure we will hear more about housing, defualts, spreading debt class problems, commercial as time goes on. But, I hope Im wrong and all this stimulus kicks in to stabilize things.

Nice job Juiceman. See what you started. Looks like it's a slow day for Urbandigs. No showings today?

just got back from 3! If you had to ask. 2 more later today. Anything else you require? Is 5 showings today enough for you? Or do you assume that if Im by a computer and checking thsi forum, that I have no business?

No not at all. I do beleive that you may be responding to these threads (although I fully expect you to deny this) via your sellers home personal computer or via your black berry while you are showing the apt. I also feel that when you enter your sellers apt you shouldn't use their computer without their knowledge.

BTW how do you just get back from 3 showings in such a short period of time. Showing thestreets the same apt 3 times in a 5 min period doesn't count as three showing.

Yeah, I think I hit a nerve. Sorry spunk

Urbandigs two days ago you were very happy to deliver the following news to me "Spunky - C at 27.59 after hours(-$0.50); MER at 55.51 after hours (-$1.90)"

Urbandigs would you be so kind to update me today on Mer and C since I don't know know what happed to zizizi.

spunky, it's true, if you repeat the same joke 34895780542 times, it actually gets funnier. My sides are beginning to split; I'm not sure what'll happen a week from now. Do us all a favor: online.wsj.com

Noah:

Curious to know how showings went this weekend with the (perhaps momentary) recent Street turnaround and another 50 bps rate cut.

well I was out all day today with 3 different buyers. Im busy. Tomorrow is superbowl, and that supercedes business for me for one day. Partner is handling my Townhouse showings. I still see action, and there were other showings with ours today. It seems to never be a showing just for my client, there are always more clients either before or after, and its been like this for 2-3 weeks now. My buyers are going to OH's on their own tomorrow, so if I hear anything about activity, Ill update you here.

Plenty of buyers out there though; still questioning confidence.

malraux once agin baiting Urbandigs for a response to acheive the all time high. Next stop 1000. Let all work as a team to get this done. We can do it. BTW thestreet your an idiot.

http://homefinance.nytimes.com/nyt/article/mortgage-column-by-bob-tedeschi/2008.02.01.mort/?ref=realestate

Interesting article on stimulus plan/Manhattan RE prices.

interesting article by jim rogers on cnn.com ....... thinks the u.s. is done.......also interesting cover on business week this weekend......headline....MELTDOWN.....FOR HOUSING THE WORST IS YET TO COME.

What is this, a four part "Batman"? Gloom and doom sells, Gumby.

Point 1: Let's stipulate to the following: The national housing market has been in trouble since 2005, and the situation was aggravated severely by the credit crisis this past year. The country is in serious slowdown mode, and we are at the brink of a recession.

Point 2: There are still many postive indicators out there: Earnings for many major companies continue to surge; the labor market has weakened but unemployment is still at a relatively low 4.9% -- the jobs creation report was not good but tends to get revised every 3 weeks so who knows; federal policy makers -- including the Fed and Congress (if the Senate can get its act together) are doing their best to avert a recession through the rate cuts and stimulus package. Some people like Singapore's Mr. Rogers seem to think it would be best to do nothing and cleanse the US with a recession. Yeah, this might be best in the long run but you know what Keynes said -- In the long run, we're all dead.

Point 3: Business Week keeps re-cycling the same article over and over again. I guess they want to drive housing prices down so their lower paid employees can afford to buy. I recall a recent article in the NY Observer that NY Housing was going to be like the fall of Rome, wherein he misrepresented what an NYU professor said ... it was written by a 23 year kid who apparently couldn't afford his flat on Avenue E.

Point 4: This blog is about Manhattan RE. All indications are still very, very strong here. Could be some softness here and there over the next two years or so.

Point 5: Gloom and doom sells, and devestates consumer confidence, which is perhaps one of the biggest threats to our national economy. I know when I was thinking about buying a place a year or so ago, a friend of mine said, "why don't you wait.. maybe things will come down significantly." I thought about it and decided I didn't want housing prices to come down significantly because that would signal other serious, serious economic dislocation. What would be the point of owning a home if I didn't have a job?

This is serious stuff, so let's stipulate that the national economy is in trouble, but by constantly aggravating -- making is seem worse and worse and impossible to overcome, it you may create a downward spiral that you may wind up getting pulled down into.

Let me make it clear: You have every right to perpetuate gloom and doom. But maybe show a little bit or responsibility that our friends in the journalism community clearly have no interest in.

good comment Will. I'd like to chime in with a few opinions.

Point 1 - Agreed except that the housing slump, falling prices, rising defaults is what aggravated wall st and the long line of derivatives that were dispersed everywhere along the MBS chain. Now, its a credit crunch cycle that has tentacles spreading everywhere, even BristolMyersSquib & Ciena as of Friday who held mortgage securities on their portfolios as part of a asset distribution plan. How deep does it reall spread?

Point 2 - Yes, but two of what you discuss are clearly faulty and lagging when it comes to reality. For one, the jobs data even as weak as it is, is actuallY WEAKER due to the B/D adjustment. Here is a good explanation on this by BR:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/12/more-on-birthde.html

This is highly skewing jobs data released by BLS. In short, its worse than data shows. Very few argue this. As for unemployment rate of 4.9%, that is a lagging indicator and everyone expects that to rise over the course of the next 6-8 months given layoffs that are happening right now. So, markets are more concerned with near term expectations than the actual number that was just release. Although it beat expectations of 5%, most know it probably will rise in the next 3-4 reports.

As for Mr. Rogers, get ready spunky, he is too bearish for me. I feel same about Roubini. Although I am in no position to argue these guys reputation or expertise, they fail to take into account the longer term effects of stimulus, however BS the theory of stimulus may be. What do I mean? Well, everyone's blaming Greenspan for this mess because of too much stimulus and FFR of 1% for too ong. So what do we do to fix this asset bubble? Re-inflate it with more stimulus, reduction in FFR, and gov't bail outs. Gov't bailouts prove time and again to be short term jolts but long term failures. I fear we will ultimately enter a period of much higher rates when all this is set and done and inflation runs wild. The fed is pushing on a string.

Point 3 - Media feeds on negative stories. A good story just doesnt sell as well. Take it for whats its worth. Investment decisions should be personal ones, for your unique situation, and shouldnt be swayed by a story in BusinessWeek, UrbanDigs, or anything for that matter. You, your accountant, and financial advisor should be the ones determining if an investment decision is the right one for your unique circumstances.

Point 4 - Agreed. Fundamentals in tact, but certainly some red flags to talk about especially as the credit crisis is hitting wall street (I know, doesnt feel like after so much heroin handed out by Big Ben), but I have a feeling we are not out of woods yet. For a market so tied to wall street, (recall all brokers/firms headlines in past about wall st bonuses and surging wall st on the health of our marketplace) we must have radar up! But as you say, inventory is still tight, rental vacancy still low, rental rates still high although topping out, and plenty of buyers out there at a time when rates are fairly low. Questions I have are on economcy, jobs, confidence, and credit quality/affordability. How deep will credit crisis actually go!

Point 5 - Again, agreed. Just be careful to discern who is really doom & gloom and prediciting long bread lines, and who is trying to analyze data and offer ubiased opinions. As a broker, my bias obviously is to SELL SELL SELL and bully Manhattan as much as possible. I think I made it clear that I have no problems discussing what I see is going on out there and my opinions. But, your right, major media loves doom & gloom.

All very normal. In boom times, major media does talk about it getting many people on board to rise the wave and speculators to join the party. These guys are notoriously late to the party. In bad times, media seems to go a bit overboard so the downfall there is confidence. All in all, great comment.

will.....just one question is wall street a major part of the manhattan realestate scene? If the answer is yes ...... hhhhhhmmmmmmm......not sure what to think going forward....banks seem to be doing well all those boys and girls in the mortgage trading units sure are going to spend their money on a condo in manhattan for sure.....i do beleive mr thain even said they are going to have to look at how bonus are given out going forward....hard to justify money out the door when writting down billions....but you are right gloom and doom does sell......unfortuately not realestate

gumby action speaks louder than words for we can go back and forth on this forever. The fact remains that there is a lot of activity going on in Manhattan. I don't see any price declines going on like everyone has been wishing on this board since last August. West Village, Greenwich Village, Soho and Tribeca all still very strong and when the stats come in by year end I wouldn't be surprised to actually see appreciation in value for 2008.

your are correct.....the bankers are definately buying like there is no tomorrow.....

Gumby, my opinion, and just my opinion, is that the Wall Street situation will have a marginal negative impact. But I don't know if it will be flat prics and a continuing soft, buyers market, a small price depreciation (3-5% maybe in some neigborhoods), or just less appreciation than there would otherwise be.

who do you think have been buying up all the million dollar condos in the past years???????My guess is as a percentage of buyers wall street is way up there....just a guess.....no hard facts there just the postings from years past telling of the waives of bonus money coming in to buy up the market.....any who.....i work in the same building as merill and the long faces are quite extreme and the private equity groups being sold off and they are waiting for their pink slips....even citi groups commodity division got the stiff on year end bonus because of cdo and what not.....my point is recession or no recession manhattan has held up nicely....very nicely with regards to realestate......now is the first time in a long time that the buyer does not have to rush around and hurry to buy a multi million dollar condo.....they aren't going anywhere......there may be lots of people at open houses and such but lets face it they aren't selling like they did in the past and if you are going to put down a couple hundred grand for a down payment you may want to wait a few more months to see how the economy and world looks......

If you want to be pokey about it, that's fine. 2008 will still be an up year for good apartments in good neighborhoods.

i guess we have to wait and see on that call...just a few questions

1 banking industry is better or worse than in recent years

2 it is now easier or harder to get a loan

3 there are more or less people worried about the economy

4 people are more or less willing to buy a multi million dollar condo

5 you are going to make more or less than last year if you are a broker

6 i feel better or worse about my ability to pay my mortgage once it resets

7 the midwest economy has nothing or something of an effect on manhattan realestate

simple questions

simple answers

form a simple guy

for all the brokers on this board one really simple question.....january is now over did you earn more or less than last year?

of course there is no way to verify your answers but i think just by the size of your wallet or purse you will know......

keep up the talk

love it

gumby yet everything you say is correct but guess what prices in Tribaca, GV, West Village, Soho and Gramercy Park may in fact be higher this past January than last January. They probably will be higher this Feb than last Feb
and in March I bet prices will be higher this March than last March. Talk all you want about Wall Street layoffs, Recession etc etc and etc but do take a peak at prices in the areas I mentioned and compare it to last year. After all isn't that's what's important.

All the more reason than to not dive in and spend a boat load of money at the top.....if logic tells you one thing and prices are doing something else......wait til logic catches up.....to say to buy now because it's going higher hardly makes any sense in this environment.....see questions above......

there was once a day when the buy now or miss out phrase was actually true now it is not......the environment has changed.....you may want to defend your position all you want because your income is derived in some way shape or form from realestate but wishing the economy, banking problems, credit problems away will not make it so......

we are in rough times again to the brokers out there is january better or worse than last january??????

one other thing it's not prices it's the number of transaction in those neighborhoods.......which goes back to the question above.....are you making more or less now than last january?

Yes it would be interesting to compare sales transactions in specific buildings in the above locations in 2008 compared to 2007. What RE brokers made in Jan 2007 compared to 2008 is interesting but doesn't really prove your point.You can spin this anyway you'd like because this you shouldn't buy RE in Manhattan rhetoric has been spun for the past 10 years.

And the Giants win ithe Super Bowl 17-14!!!!!!!!!!!

...now back to your regularly scheduled programming....

I wonder if the win will add a little price appreciation for Manhattan RE.

F it. I'm buying an apartment. The Giants won the Superbowl. Oh yeah - its cheaper to rent. Nevermind. Go Giants!

Severe global/national recession? Just in today....

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22989305

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22989558

Also:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22989126/for/cnbc/

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22982084

Will, a positive quarter for Wendy's is a recessionary sign, unless you were (wisely?) pointing out that same store sales fell, and that they owe the good numbers to cost savings? ADM higher profits is an inflationary signal, in the food sector (food is something we need to, that's partly why a lot of us don't want to see lower rates). And Humana? I was glad to see Asian markets up, overnight, but I don't think its a sign we are out of the woods. Your posting those links is the strongest bear sign I've seen. Talk about a contrarian indicator.

Agree Humana profits should be indicative of how horrible our health health care situation is not a good sign of the economy.
On the hand foreign markets so seem to be rather robust which probably will add to more interest in Manhattan RE amongst foreigners

Pops, I guess every silver lining has a cloud.