Tsunami of Foreclosure on the Way.

as someone with no background in the financial or RE industries whose opinion should under any circumstances be taken seriously, this is kind of the basis for what i think will end up happening in manhattan. the good towns in the suburbs, and i do mean Good towns with a capital G, will come down so much and start to look sooooooooooooo good, people will go, the family market will thin out. right now there is still that abstract idea hovering that what a million bucks buys you in the suburbs is so average and depressing that it's better and more dignified to stay in that cramped apartment you outgrew 2 kids ago. that will not continue being the case when a million bucks buys you architectural gems in prestigious old towns.

"when a million bucks buys you architectural gems in prestigious old towns"

like it's supposed to, dammit!

This is what bothers me about the NYT article; "according to RealtyTrac, a real estate data provider" I keep running into situations where these websites are just plain wrong in their listings/info/data. It lists several properties in my target area as "soon to be foreclosed" or "bank-owned", when the reality is that the properties they have listed were sold a couple of months ago. Or the owner has become current on their payments. Their listings are, at best, outdated. I am becoming increasingly skeptical of a lot of internet real estate data sites.

I only trust Noah, because he actually pays attention to what shows up on Urbandigs.com

Noah is in a class by himself. And yes both realty trak and zillow are useless. But there are enough real sources like Case/Schiller to back up the notion of more volume in foreclosures and lower prices are on the way.

Metro NYC, I don't know about.

But in Prime Manhattan (say, south of 96th all the way down) all it means is that instead of 25 foreclosures in total annually, the amount will be up 20% - to 30 foreclosures in total annually.

I don't think there will ever be mass foreclosures in Manhattan -- barring some tragic event. But outside pressures - another national drop in prices, never ending foreclosures, the fall of the Euro, a big dose of inflation, lack of confidence in the economy, changes in the tax structure-- can force prices down. There may not be pricing pressure in the over 5 MM apts, but if there is another shock to the economy -- Spain defaulting, a downgrade of the US because Congress does not reach an agreement on the debt with enough time leeway before the deadline, etc. There are a lot of black swans swimming out there. At a certain point, mid-range Manhattan cannot be immune.

Well, as long as Jennifer Aniston keeps pumping dollars into Manhattan RE.

Hey, what happened to all of that pricing at 500 p/ft we were supposed to see? I thought it would be RE armeggedon by now. w67? aboutready? HOW DOES IT FEEL TO BE OH SO WRONG?

"But there are enough real sources like Case/Schiller to back up the notion of more volume in foreclosures and lower prices are on the way."

I don't like Case Shiller that much since it covers such a huge geographical area. It covers NY, NJ, CT, and one county in PA for the NY market.

Howz it feel to puff up your chest Bc you wear Oliver ppl eyeglasses, got a tour of a heliport and ride the 2nd ave bus?

Here's a trend line. $2000 psf euro trash studio in 42nd St (2007), $1500psf c6 on wea in 2010, $800 psf c6 on cpw 92nd St in 2011. Now follow along four eyes. Now coming up
1) interest rates rising
2) city services being cut esp. For schools (killing the theory public schools are better in the city)
3) fed no longer buys 95% of all mortgages, at least anything over $400k
4) 5 yrs, count on your fingers five Fking yrs of bankruptcy REO in hidden inventory by the banks
5) realization borkers know as much about finance as you do about your wife hot button

Get your popcorn. Unlike your 1inch climax spray, the final capitulation of nyc re will leave a stain clear across the living room.

w 67. you forgot to mention that as the euro falls, we will lose a great many buyers who bought up Manhattan RE because the dollar was so low they were getting fabulous discounts. Not to mention a generation that is coming to realize that real estate as an investment does not necessarily pay off. Though the Chinese buyers can still pick up some of the slack, unless we have another double in the equity market, the buyer pool in Manhattan might be dwindling.

apt23, Chinese $Trillions investment won't go to the US, Chinese gvt decided to boycott investments in the US in retaliation to the US saying Chinese don't respect human rights. As matter of facts, Chinese real estate investment are happening in Vancouver at the moment, not NY.

as the euro falls and the dollar gets stronger. the euro buyer can sell the place that he overpaid for in 2007 for a 20% loss and still come out with money in the pocket.

i'm waiting for the euro to be what it should be with the mighty dollar 1 to 1. 1/2 of the new construction condos will be for sale.

Really, sledge? Wasn't some broker talking about Chinese buyers at the Rushmore? Are you referring to Commercial RE? That would make sense. But wouldn't individuals be able to buy where ever they want? Or are you suggestion that the govt is discouraging individuals from investing in US

This thread, started by the idiot who also started the backdoor thread and then disappeared after more than a dozen posters called her a moron. She didn't even return to defend herself.

Check it out here: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-prediction-come-to-pass-thru-the-backdoor

Some morons don't learn, they just do away and try again with more stupidity.

As a commercial real estate consulant, I know for a fact a lot of weatlhy chinese buyers are flocking in the NY to grab up real estate. A client of mine, with a lot of cash is looking to buy botique hotels or buildings along park ave. Banks like HSBC, are also making it easier for Chinese buyers with no visa or status in US to buy up manhattan with collateral in China. Several chinese banks are making loans for commerical RE, which a few US bank are doing right now. Some government backed chinese investors are also grabbing shares in REIT. Until there are more commercial RE activities, the US economy will still continue to suffer. Other buyers are from the middle east such as Israels.

If you look around the new developments, most of the cash buyers are from foreign, so I think they are right now the main buyers of the Real Estate. They are the ones making RE prices in NY more stable than other cities. So even with the National RE price coming down, NY real estate price will have very little impact.

Let's go back to RealtyTrac and their lack of accuracy; go to their website. Put in your zip code. Gasp at the thousands of foreclosures they have listed. In my zip code, in NYC, they have over 6,500 properties listed under the "bank-owned" tab. If this were true, I would see thousands of empty units. I don't.

I'm becoming increasingly disturbed that previously accurate news sources are using the internet to get their info. Has the NYTimes done any investigation into all these foreclosures? Did anyone even leave the office to check the courthouse records? Why the HELL not? What happened to "verifying your sources"? Just using the phrase "according to" does not get you off the hook.

They are no different than the idiots that saw the doomsday prediction and said "It's on the internet, so it must be true".

The properties count includes "Properties Near [ZipCode]"...

needsadvice, there are plenty of alternative sources for relatively good guesstimates for delinquencies and foreclosure activity. if you don't like realtytrac, and i could see why, maybe you should check out calculatedriskblog.com for bill mcbride's excellent coverage of the issue. you'll find that the numbers aren't that far off, although they might present differently.

btw, for all of those who think rents are going to go through the roof, what do you think happens when investors buy all those vacant properties, albeit eventually? hmm? housing units are housing units. unless they are demolished they continue to exist, and most of them are eventually filled. including the however many apartments that are available for rent at the atelier, and other similar buildings.

>btw, for all of those who think rents are going to go through the roof

Face it lady, for the past 5 or 6 or so years, you've been on the wrong side. You sold your property too early, and apparently above today's market value. Renting at PCV works out for you, that's fantastic. But free market rents in Manhattan have been climbing since at least early 2010. And with the growth in Wall Street and the media world, there's no reason why they won't continue at least at a rate above inflation.

>and apparently above today's market value.

-> and apparently BELOW today's market value.

i like jim chanos, generally, on investment info. according to a recent bloomberg interview, he's been shorting china but, now he believes, not nearly enough.

in terms of the global economy, well, it might take a bit of time, but things aren't looking so hot recently. the bulls can only hope for another round of some sort of stimulus, monetary, fiscal, or tax, to reduce the pain. but i wonder.

>i like jim chanos, generally, on investment info

Theoretical, or you are putting your money behind Jim Chanos?

where's your money, hb? do share.

On red, 47.

>do share.

I'm amused at your Elizabethan style of speaking.

Nevertheless, I'm in global equities with a U.S. bias, limited fixed income, limited diversified commodities including perishables and non-perishables, limited diversified real estate, and alternative assets.

Do I take your question that came without a rebuttal, as an acknowledgment of my read of your mis-timing?

Hey colubiacounty, how does it feel to have sold all of your stock in March 2009?

Hey columbiacounty, were you happy when your wife left you?

You've picked a fine time to leave me rucille.

Hey columbiacounty, when you tipped over the cow, how long till you were discovered and rescued from underneath it?

Hey columbiacounty, once again starting with the anti-Japanese jokes?

about ready?

columbiacounty
about 22 hours ago
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You've picked a fine time to leave me rucille.

uh......hm......dfjkh.......what?

Truth
25 minutes ago
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My boyfriend is in Joplin, volunteering.

He's a "thug"?!

Stick it up your smelly hole, slob.