Regretting Move, Bank May Return to Manhattan

How did I know it was spunky! Guess you're gonna be able to rent out your studios to all them high-powered traders, eh, spunkster?

stevejhx, why so negative all the time? this is good for the city you live in. embrace it.

"Now, though, UBS is having buyer’s remorse. It turns out that a suburban location has become a liability in recruiting the best and brightest young bankers, who want to live in Manhattan"

Manhattan is home to the best and brightest in all areas, that's for sh-t sure.

Here's one of the best and brightest giving you some advice: dump your investment studios now. They've been bleeding you for 4 years now, don't let them bleed you for another 10. Being up 18% come 2020 is not a win; at the level of risk you're exposing yourself to, you should be up 200% by then in a proper risky investment. These 14 years of your life to increase your capital 3x will never come back, they will have a strong determination on your wealth until the day you die.

The city needs to increase its top-rate income tax. We're clearly more desirable than CT, with its low tax rate. All we need are more schools with smart boards and fancy-pants gyms and libraries, so the millionaire bankers stay with their broods.

inonada...In 2020 I will be up 300% and have had paid off more than half my loans using your rent money...whoohoo!!! In 2020 you'll still be renting, have no equity and lost all your downpayment money trading in/out of individual stocks.

On Wall Street the hatchet man cometh.

Deep-pocketed bankers and traders are bracing for what could be a fresh round of job cuts on the Street, concentrated in equities trading and investment banking, where firms are considering eliminating thousands of jobs in the coming weeks, The Post has learned.

Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley currently are among those financial institutions either weighing staff cuts or actually paring payroll as they struggle to rein in costs and eke out profits in a choppy market, sources told The Post.

The exact size of the layoffs across the industry could not be learned, but it's possible total jobs cuts could run into the thousands as firms assess the impact on their bottom lines of sweeping regulatory reform and a balky economic recovery.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/slasher_street_3N2eDrojp9DGzQcAlzGPhN#ixzz1Og4BOkcq

Steve F -- The way the economy is going, in 2020 you'll be holed up in your fortress, unable to go outside, for fear that the rabble will impale you with their pitchforks.

steveF, you'd be up 300% next year if I paid you my rent money. Unfortunately, the going rate on studios is just $2000 to $2500.

Seriously though, walk me through how you think you'll be at up 300% by 2020. I'd like to know how you see your numbers playing out. Pick one of your studios and give me approximate numbers.

- When did buy & how much did you pay?

- What kind of loan did you get & how much did you put down? If an ARM, what does it reset to?

- What were your taxes/cc when you bought, what are they now, and where do you think they'll be in 2020?

- What rent have you been getting, and what has been your occupancy rate? Where do you think the rents are headed by 2020?

- Where do you think the price will be in 2020?

- Where do you think mortgage rates (for your buyers) will be in 2020?

Thanks.

I'll bet everyone who moved out to Conn to be near the job is just exstatic!

inonada: if he bought the studio for $400k, with $80k down, and the value of it increases by 50% in the next 9 years, his 80k is now worth $200k more. and i am not even taking into consideration the amount of principal that would have been paid off over the course of the 9 years. so yea, not a bad deal.

could it go down? yes. but i am willing to bet that nyc real estate prices will be higher in 2020 than they are today. if nothing else but because of inflation.

Good for that poor kid quoted in the article, now spending two hours a day on the train. He said "it's not terrible, but not ideal." And here I am bitching if my door-to-door is delayed to ten minutes.

I'll leave it to w67th's 6-year-old daughter to poke holes in that one, ekartash. If you have an actual investment (rather than some theoretical sketch of one), I'd be curious to see how your numbers play out as well.

"Now, though, UBS is having buyer’s remorse"

Most likely NY offered UBS a major tax incentive to move back to NY.

inonada
about 2 hours ago Here's one of the best and brightest giving you some advice: dump your investment studios now. They've been bleeding you for 4 years now, don't let them bleed you for another 10. Being up 18% come 2020 is not a win; at the level of risk you're exposing yourself to, you should be up 200% by then in a proper risky investment. These 14 years of your life to increase your capital 3x will never come back, they will have a strong determination on your wealth until the day you die.

YOU ARE AN ARROGANT KNOW IT ALL PIECE OF SHIT.

Nobody has "buyer's remorse" 15 years later. Their lease is up, they're playing the "my lease is up" game.

"inonada...In 2020 I will be up 300% and have had paid off more than half my loans using your rent money...whoohoo!!! In 2020 you'll still be renting, have no equity and lost all your downpayment money trading in/out of individual stocks."

Oh man.... SteveF is Perfitz! (but only broke in one city)

"Here's one of the best and brightest giving you some advice: dump your investment studios now. They've been bleeding you for 4 years now, don't let them bleed you for another 10. Being up 18% come 2020 is not a win; at the level of risk you're exposing yourself to, you should be up 200% by then in a proper risky investment. These 14 years of your life to increase your capital 3x will never come back, they will have a strong determination on your wealth until the day you die. "

Well said as usual inonada...

It is funny how "breaking even" after long periods of time is often seen as a goal.

"YOU ARE AN ARROGANT KNOW IT ALL PIECE OF SHIT."

I've heard how high temperatures increase the violent temperament in some. I hope you at least can keep it together at home.

All I'm asking here is for steveF to shed a little light on his investment. Maybe once he shows us the light, you'll get up the nerve to fulfill your lifelong dream of owning your own little piece of midtown east. Assuming you've saved up the scratch, that is.

How was the helicopter ride? Would you recommend it?

Nobody owns a piece of Midtowner East! Oops, sorry, misread that.

"inonada: if he bought the studio for $400k, with $80k down, and the value of it increases by 50% in the next 9 years, his 80k is now worth $200k more. and i am not even taking into consideration the amount of principal that would have been paid off over the course of the 9 years. so yea, not a bad deal."

Sure, a great deal if you don't have to actually, well, make the payments on it. Funny how that gets left out entirely... If you have to pay $300k for that $200k, its not so smart anymore, is it?

right on ekartash....

how did this thread turn back on me lol? All I did was post some news release about how great Manhattan is. I didn't even say a word lol.

1500 mortgage + 700 monthlies. Rent it out. That 200k is costing you 0. Good night.

"how did this thread turn back on me lol? All I did was post some news release about how great Manhattan is. I didn't even say a word lol."

You said you expected to be up 300% by 2020. I just asked for details on your expectations, that's all. Now can you answer the question?

"I've heard how high temperatures increase the violent temperament in some."

My theory is that when j ho flips from his normal speech (i.e., cursing) to cursing in all caps it's because he knows you're right and you got under his skin. Could just be the temperature, though.

LOL. Woops, I mean "lol".

what is the difference between a jimbob10 and a jimbob11?

Not sure why they would consider moving back to Manhattan when they could move to Charlotte. Everyone knows its the financial capital of the world.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7704-charlotte-3rd-most-popular-city-to-move-to
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/15931-bank-of-american-moving-hq-to-nyc

Didn't Connecticut raise the corp tax rate? UBS was lured to Connecticut by tax breaks. Sounds like now it's working in the opposite direction, and with the exception of those who live in multi-million dollar Greenwich homes, it makes more sense to be in NY which is central to New Jersey, Long Island, and Connecticut which is where the potential labor pool resides and many of the customers are.

I think it makes more sense to be in Charlotte

Not by a long shot..

Why don't they move to Texas? I thought that was supposed to be such a great atate to conduct business in due to no taxes.

ya jsmith9005, remember when Charlotte was going to be the center of Finance and "blow Manhattan right outta the water!"

another "what if?" or "could be" or "might happen" etc. bear scare tactic. Sure "anything can happen" just like you can win powerball or get struck by lightning.

I can't find the thread where stevejhx was telling us all NYC is dead and Charlotte is the new US financial capitol. Anyone remember where that is? Stevejhx: you are becoming like the Harold Camping of Streeteasy.

Hey steveF, can you answer my question? I wanna see how you think you're going to be up 300% on the investments you made. Thanks.

Hey steveF, can you answer my question? I wanna see how you think you're going to be up 300% on the investments you made. Thanks.

nada, I admire your persistence, but you don't really think he's going to wow you, do you?

inonada, i'm not giving a public forum any personal information.
If u want to know why I think I'll be up 300% in 2020 then just look at the past. If the US economy/real estate asset prices thrived in a century that included a great depression, 2 world wars, 2 undeclared wars, a cold war, terrorism etc. then ODDS are that asset prices will do even better in the next century. Also remember that they're not building any new land for the next 1 billion people..

"I can't find the thread where stevejhx was telling us all NYC is dead and Charlotte is the new US financial capitol. Anyone remember where that is?"

I don't know where the thread is, but all of us who read it remember it, as well as the arguments on it, such as, sure, sure, we've heard this all before.

Remember, nothing ever changes? The past always repeats itself? So why would it be any different with the false prediction that NYC will turn into a ghost town, every time there's a stock market crash, to be proven incorrect every time?

I think the only people who have impressed me with their predictive abilities on SE are the people who made good arguments for a double dip recession and a second round of headcount reductions. One month ago I thought, ah, BS. Now they're looking brilliant. And please, steve, don't tell me that you're the one we heard it from first.

"Inonada, i'm not giving a public forum any personal information." Translation: I don't have an answer to your question.

"nada, I admire your persistence, but you don't really think he's going to wow you, do you?"

I'm not expecting to be wowed, just want to understand how the numbers add up in his head. He's certainly shown an ability to put together coherent numbers before, I just want to see how he's connecting the dots for himself.

"inonada, i'm not giving a public forum any personal information."

I'm not asking for personal information: there are probably hundreds of people just like you who made similar investments with similar outlooks for 2020. Don't give me actual details, just approximate so I can see how you think things will play out. If you bought for $663K and rent for $2250 with $900 monthlies, just scale it to $600K and $2000 and $800. If you don't want anyone to know even the remote ballpark, scale it to $100K and $340 and $135.

You're a sharp cookie, you know how to engage in a discussion on the numbers without giving personal info. Let's talk.

FYI, I'm totally with you on the best being ahead for this country, how what we just went through is no biggie compared to what this country has been through in the past, etc. Despite all that, I just don't understand how you see the numbers playing out such that your 2007-ish studio investments will be up 300% in 9 years. So educate me.

Fsteve's inability to admit defeat goes a long way to explaining the bubble. It's only when retards like him can go on an anonymous forum and actually state Not selling nyc re in 2007 was THE greatest financial mistake of their times, will I break out some champagne. Alas, even as the sheriff is taking away his pile of x men comic book collection in his studios, he'll still say nyc re is a great investment and it'll be backin 2040! Up 300% I tell ya!

Double dip in the house! Mtherfker!

Whattaya say, steveF?

>MidtownerEast
about 7 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse "Inonada, i'm not giving a public forum any personal information." Translation: I don't have an answer to your question.

Inonada's a pretty sharp and analytical guy and appears to fend for himself quite well. I'm not sure he really needs the support of a limp armed virgin living in a smallish 1 bedroom in midtown east who lives there to be close to his paralegal job on 3rd avenue.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6864-what-are-your-predictions-for-2009

"We're moving Manhattan to Charlotte."

Here's another prediction from that thread you linked:

"Rents will DECREASE as the number of new development condos that can't be sold skyrockets, and buildings are converted. 1,300 new units in Silver Tower alone, on the Far West Side. Rents are already collapsing before that, though."

This was a prediction for 2009, and now we're in 2011, so this isn't quite fair, but ..... rents are not decreasing and they have not exactly collapsed.

Stevejhx predicted "stock indices" to go to 11,000. S&P has not reached 11,000 yet, but he hit the bullseye if he meant exclusively the DJIA. Plural must have been a typo in that case. He was right that NYC unemployment hit 10%. Not bad, but the prediction on Manhattan rents, which he made more than once, was incorrect. I remember suggesting to him that he did great to find a bargain rental, but that in a couple of years the rental market would firm up and he'd look at increases. I'm pretty sure he was rock solid confident that rents are not going up for a long time.

The Charlotte prediction was probably poetic drama, a turn of speech, but ........

No comment on Charlotte, except that they don't have food there, but in fairness to Steve he couldn't/shouldn't have been able to predict the ridiculous supports offered to Wall St. and the equity markets. So perhaps he was fundamentally right on rents and indices, but the timing was extended.

>he couldn't/shouldn't have been able to predict the ridiculous supports offered to Wall St. and the equity markets.

So a wrong prediction is ok if you didn't take something into account?

S&P at 11,000! That's when I'm jumping in!

I remember my Charlotte prediction - there was some irony in it, but I meant it at the time. But I think that time was before the collapse of Wachovia.

However, according to a colleague of mine whose husband works at what is now Wells Fargo in Charlotte, they have made a big commitment to Charlotte as a center for eastern seaboard operations. How long that commitment lasts after all the Wachovia branches lasts I don't know, b/c I had to call for some old Wachovia account statements, and they transferred me to Wells Fargo in California.

PS: the only one who's timing is always 101% spot on is Eddy Wilson.

"Wachovia branches lasts" = "Wachovia branches close"

Oops!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7601-the-death-of-citigroup-and-new-york-as-a-banking-center

"Charlotte will be the US capital of finance."

Exactly what I said I said, jsm.

I thought he was literal at the time he said that originally. Now I think it was just an expression. Sort of like saying, "by the time we retire there won't be any Social Security."

Well, sort of..............

Steve, what about your rental? I've always thought you're going to get a healthy increase after two years.

No Lowery, I was serious when I said it, though I did say it with an air to incite and get a reaction from the posters at the time who have stopped posting out of embarrassment. With the exception of JuiceDrivel and LICCDope, who know no shame.

I'm not sure about the rent - nothing comparable to mine has been on the market. A similar one went on the market a month or so ago which would have implied a reasonable increase after two years, but that same line, top floor, just went up for a ridiculous price. But it's not comparable directly as the top floor all have WBFP's, so they've always gone for a premium.

In any case I'm seriously considering relocating to Beautiful Downtown Ft. Lauderdale, where I can get a 2000-square foot home with a pool for $300k. Total monthly costs with taxes & insurance, about $2k, no state or city income tax. In other words, Pure Profit!

"Whattaya say, steveF? "

no surprise...

I remember the Ft Lauderdale thought, steve. Makes sense. Just remember, it's not as close to Ninth Avenue and Central Park. I think your building's lack of vacancies and outrageous rent at the higher floor are signs that the ll no longer needs to entice new tenants, and that usually spells rent increases for renewal leases.

They're still offering the one-month incentive, and this is peak summer season. My lease isn't up till December, so I'll worry about it then. I did, however, move in November 2008, which was about the short-term low-point in rents.

I've been looking seriously at Ft. Lauderdale, though, and spending as much as $450k will get you a beautiful million-dollar home on a deepwater canal from 2 years ago. I'll miss the city undoubtedly, but from what I can see it's only going to get more and more expensive as property taxes and income taxes rise to pay impossible retirement benefits that can't be scaled back (and that aren't subject to city or state income tax, either, for at least the police).

I saw one beauty - affordable but not desired - for $1.8 million, with 10,000 square feet, marble floors and columns, in Bal Harbourish. Ego-wise it's gorgeous, but I don't even want to clean the space I have in Manhattan, never mind 10x the space!

"I don't even want to clean the space I have in Manhattan, never mind 10x the space!"

You weren't really thinking of owning 10,000 sq ft without substantial "help," were you? It sounds great compared to NYC prices, but big houses with lots of marbles floors are not necessarily the most practical retirement nests. If houses you've seen are $300-$450K, what are condos now? Are you wary of them because of the potential for entire buildings to fail/be scammed/etc? There might be some buildings that are safe.

>I did, however, move in November 2008, which was about the short-term low-point in rents.

November 2009?