Yet another NYC sector woth momentum

Momentum in the low-end low-margin disposable housewares sector? Will Ikea's Manhattan locations be the next big thing to turn things around?

If low-end means "Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Downtown, and Brooklyn" I am more than ok with that.

Manhattan Office Leasing Up 34% From Last Year, CB Richard Says
2011-07-11 17:23:25.412 GMT

By David M. Levitt
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan office leasing is up 34
percent from last year, as deals for large blocks of space
helped drive down the availability rate, according to CB Richard
Ellis Group Inc.
Almost 15.7 million square feet (1.46 million square
meters) of leases were completed in the first half of the year,
or 4 million more than the same period in 2010, the world’s
biggest commercial real estate services firm said in a report
today. Agreements by Conde Nast Publications Inc. and law firm
Morrison Foerster LLP to anchor new buildings at 1 World Trade
Center in lower Manhattan and 250 West 55th St. in Midtown,
respectively, were among the biggest deals.
“Despite a lagging national economy, New York has managed
to outpace the nation and its global urban competitor cities
with a better employment picture and renewed confidence that
high-quality new-building owners will find the tenants they
need,” Matt Van Buren, executive managing director at CB
Richard Ellis, said in a statement. “The market is in a strong
and sustained positive trend.”
A rebound of New York City’s financial industry from the
2008 credit crisis has helped drive demand for office space. The
city’s unemployment rate was 8.6 percent in May, its lowest
point in more than two years and below the national average of
9.1 percent that month, the state Department of Labor said on
June 16.

Availability Rate

Manhattan’s office availability rate, defined as all space
being marketed for occupancy within the next 12 months, was 11.3
percent, down from 14 percent a year earlier, Los Angeles-based
CB Richard Ellis said. The average rent sought by landlords rose
9.1 percent to $51.93 a square foot.
Conde Nast, publisher of Vogue, the New Yorker and 16 other
magazines, agreed in May to move from its Times Square
headquarters in Midtown to about 1 million square feet at 1
World Trade Center, slated for completion in 2013.
Also in May, Morrison Foerster signed a deal to rent
180,000 square feet at 250 West 55th St. The agreement prompted
developer Boston Properties Inc., the biggest U.S. office real
estate investment trust, to resume construction of a skyscraper
at the site.

For Related News and Information:
For Bloomberg’s Commercial Real Estate Overview: CRE
Top real estate stories: TOPR
New York real estate stories: TNI REL NYC
Bloomberg commercial real estate stories: NI CRE BN
Bloomberg commercial mortgage securities functions: CMBH
Bloomberg global real estate indexes: RMEN

Remember when $1300 per sq ft for new development seemed low?

"$1300/sqft new dev seems low and $885/sqft for existing condo seems very low. Especially for a 2/2. 2/2 co-ops in UWS are around $1000-$1150/sqft, existing condos about $1200-$1400/sqft. I would expect quality new devs in the $1500-$1600 range (and higher)."

Who said that 3 years ago?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3043-price-per-sq-foot-condo-manhattan

truthy...... hahahahaahaaaaaaaaa..... juiceman, $1300psf seems low => does that mean you bought the studios at $1500psf or $2000psf?

What happens when the short sales in ALL the RSB condos start trading at $500psf, where does that put your 3rd floor w42nd and 12 ave studio condos?

"Remember when $1300 per sq ft for new development seemed low?"

Yes, and now it seems REALLY REALLY REALLY low.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-harrison-205-west-76th-street-new_york

8 active sales listings: $2,419 per ft² (avg)
148 previous sales listings: $1,867 per ft² (avg)

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-apthorp

21 active sales listings: $2,111 per ft² (avg)
91 previous sales listings: $3,211 per ft² (avg)

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/linden-78

2 active sales listings: $2,137 per ft² (avg)
36 previous sales listings: $1,730 per ft² (avg)

Juice, those numbers are a bit off since those are listing prices (which are kind of meaningless, esp with new development), though StreetEasy is nice enough to offer ppsf on actual sales:

Harrison - 135 sales, $1,625 psf avg
Apthorp - 37 sales, $1,362 psf avg (which I believe is distorted to the downside by some seriously low-priced "insider" sales)
Linden - 27 sales, $1,501 psf avg
535 WEA - 19 sales, $1,944 psf avg

BJW
Yes of course but on top of that, the SE totals I think are for the life of SE's recordings, so its an average including sales from '06/'07, the lunatic years and the like.
Also Juicy ignores the 800/900 per sq ft new developments in FIDI.

But the real point of my post is Juicy is one the last people on this board who should be playing "remember when."

truthskr, of course. I didn't mean to imply those were all recent sales. The problem with new dev is that closing times and uploading to ACRIS can take forever, so it's next to impossible to gauge current pricing this way alone. That said, even the most recent sales at these buildings went for pretty crazy money. I found #602 at the Harrison which went for $1,158 psf, and 6B at the Linden which went for $1,224 psf, but everything else went for over $1,300 (and in most cases, well over). These could have been in contract for years, so who knows? In my view, pricing on UWS new devs has indeed come down, but JuiceMan is right that $1,300 is still pretty low for that particular market.

Well Im no maven on UWS, it's jersey to me. :)
But a quick view of new developments up there shows that is near the average asking price.

Real estate for sale
in All Upper West Side
We found 122 listings for between $400,000 and $4,000,000 in new developments or conversions
Median price: $2,177,500 Median size: 1,407 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,409

I entered $400K for a low and $4mil for a high to keep out "the mistakes?" shall we say.

And I still maintain, Juicy should be one of last guys to play remember when. :)

"Also Juicy ignores the 800/900 per sq ft new developments in FIDI."

What truthskr ignores is that the conversation three years ago was specifically about the UWS. So if you want to "remember when" a least get the context right. Especially when it was a correct statement then and even more now. Silly truthskr......

"I found #602 at the Harrison which went for $1,158 psf, and 6B at the Linden which went for $1,224 psf, but everything else went for over $1,300 (and in most cases, well over)"

Exactly

So 800/900 should be a total steal ayy? Banks should be underwriting 100% of their employees mortgages to live in FIDI? No?

"So 800/900 should be a total steal ayy?"

Could be market rate for FIDI, why would you call it a steal?

Ah come on, truthskr, don't be Juice-hater. Fact is, the majority of posters on StreetEasy showed up after the market started correcting (you can see how long someone's been around by looking at their user#) and Juice is one of the few still hanging around from the old days. So I can see why some of the late arrivals to the party can anonymously bag on someone when they have the benefit of hindsight, but it doesn't make them all that smart, IMHO. I'd love to see if anyone's predictions or comments hold up 100% a couple years down the road.

Over 30% difference from UWS new developments isnt a steal? Both still south of 96th street and are not lower east side or BPC?

BJW
Agree with props for that at least. I did read a lot of the older threads and there was one where Juicy boastfully claimed "Im with you Spunky."
And my context could be wrong on that one too but you can understand how that sticks....

truthskr, I think we can agree that spunky was only a notch below petrfitz in terms of condescending nonsense.

"Over 30% difference from UWS new developments isnt a steal? Both still south of 96th street and are not lower east side or BPC?"

If you want to live in UWS then the price of FIDI doesn't matter much does it? If you want to buy south of 96th and don't care where, then FIDI may be a great place for you. If you are arguing that the UWS is overpriced in comparison to FIDI, I think you need a lot more data than cost per sqft of condos in each area.

"Im with you Spunky."

I was on more than a few (but not all) points. Plus, spunky was hilarious.

"I'd love to see if anyone's predictions or comments hold up 100% a couple years down the road."

Thanks bjw, I agree.

Malraux was brilliant too.

Like Steve is hilarious, both of them, such opposite ends of the spectrum that in the end they are exactly the same and identical.

Spunky...sticks.......wow ...over everyone's head?

Yes, steve is hilarious but there is a difference between laughing with and laughing at. steve falls into the laughing at category.

bjw, not sure I understand your user number comment.

There is probably a right click somewhere that shows each user's asigned account number in increasing order.
So if your user number is likely a ower digit than mine,etc

lower

Hover your cursor over the "ignore this person" link. You'll see a user id#. JuiceMan is 9311, truthskr10 is 56812. alanhart is the real old timer here. We must salute him with a sidecar.

1056892 truthskr's number

1009311 Juicy's number

1008554 BJW
Damn your old BJW :)

Everyone in Williamsburgh is.

If hover doesn't work (must be some setting), right click and hit properties.

"Everyone in Williamsburgh is."

It's a colonial town after all.

I think the hover thing varies by browser.

So Juicy, speaking of laughter - how's that theory of yours going that real-estate prices are unaffected by interest rates?

ESPECIALLY since you had to rework your mortgage to stay solvent - all for $500?

And where are all of those 20% up comps you were telling us about?

And what about that risk-free rate for opportunity cost theory?

And what happens to the risk-free rate when the US defaults on August 3?

Oh, here's another goodie:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43711891

Poor steve, stuck in his dumpy rental and wants to take it out on others. Lies, lies, lies living a life of lies.

Steve has two balconies.

Well, at least I don't have to refinance my dumpy rental with my last $500.

HAHAHAHAHA!

If you play your cards right, that is.

$500 won't even cover your extermination fees

Manhattan Property Sales More Than Double in First Half (2)
2011-07-12 20:04:02.126 GMT

(Updates with average deal price in seventh paragraph,
sales of retail properties in 10th.)

By David M. Levitt and Oshrat Carmiel
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan commercial-property sales
more than doubled in the first half of the year, led by the
highest-quality buildings, as investors competed for assets.
Transactions completed through June 30 totaled $13.1
billion, up from $5.2 billion in the first six months of 2010,
Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said today in a statement. Another $4.4
billion of deals are under contract, according to the New York-
based brokerage.
Demand for prime properties is rising as Manhattan office
leasing improves and buyers seek to put capital to work.
Institutional investors and real estate investment trusts led
purchases, making almost two-thirds of deals in the first six
months of the year, according to Cushman.
“The institutions and pension funds are really back in the
market in a big way,” Joseph Harbert, Cushman’s New York-area
chief operating officer, said in a briefing for reporters. “The
smart REIT money got active in the market in ’10, and is still
very active. The foreign money as a percentage now is not as
active.”

$100 Million-Plus

Properties priced at $100 million or more are “selling at
a very brisk pace” and driving the market while lower-end sales
are more sluggish, according to Robert Knakal, chairman of
commercial-property brokerage Massey Knakal Real Estate
Services, which also issued a report today on Manhattan sales.
There were 31 deals priced above $100 million through June,
more than in all of 2010, when there were 29 such transactions.
Sales in that range are on pace to more than double this year,
Knakal said.
The average deal price for the first half of the year was
$13.1 million, higher than the $12.3 million reached at the
market’s peak in 2007, according to Knakal.
Paramount Group Inc.’s purchase of a 49 percent stake in
1633 Broadway for $980 million was the largest deal in the
second quarter, Eastern Consolidated, a New York-based
investment brokerage, said in a report today.
“The banks are welcoming the opportunity to lend to the
buyers of commercial properties in New York,” said Daun Paris,
president of Eastern Consolidated. “You have so few other
businesses and consumers seeking loans and the banks need to put
out some money.”
Retail-property transactions exceeded 2010’s total, with
$979.7 million in assets changing hands through June, the
brokerage said. Inditex SA, the Spanish parent of the Zara
clothing chain, set a record in March for a U.S. retail property
when it bought the former NBA Store at 666 Fifth Ave. for $324
million.

‘Slogging Along’

Deals under $100 million totaled 221 through June and are
on pace to increase 13 percent for the year from 2010, Knakal
said. Transactions below $50 million are on pace to decline 7
percent.
“The high end is recovering, but otherwise the market is
kind of slogging along,” Knakal said. “It is taking longer to
gain the traction that we like.”
Massey Knakal reported that the dollar volume of all
commercial-property deals in Manhattan totaled $11 billion
through June, a 124 percent increase from the same period last
year.
Property values are rising in the borough “partly as a
result of improving leasing fundamentals and partly as a result
of a tremendous amount of capital focused on New York City,”
Harbert said in Cushman’s statement.

Office Leases

A total of 17.6 million square feet (1.64 million square
meters) of new office leases were signed through June, the
highest six-month tally in more than a decade, according to
Cushman. Leases were up 40 percent from a year earlier.
Manhattan office rents increased 1.4 percent in the last
three months and 2.2 percent from a year earlier, to $55.52 a
square foot, a pace Harbert described as “modest.”
“You would expect rents to be rising faster than they
are” he said, citing the robust leasing and a decline in office
vacancies, which fell to 9.4 percent from 10.8 percent at the
end of last June.
Potential Wall Street job cuts, lackluster employment
growth and concern that the global economy will slow are
“keeping a lid on the pot” for leasing, said Dale Schlather, a
broker at Cushman.
“There’s plenty of risk out there, and that’s really the
issue,” he said.

"$500 won't even cover your extermination fees"

It's probably safer, then, that you keep your whereabouts unknown.

HAHAHAHAHA!