Rents really up?

J miller and urbandigs' niche is the 'I'm a neutral player' in this fked up mkt. It's like a prostitute telling you she got no crabs. If you gotta wonder, she gotz it.

Flmaozzzzz. Rent now or be forced to buy into a deflating bubble forever!!!!! The 4th circle of re hell!!!

Good piece. Ritholtz followed up that on a CPI adjusted basis they are still very far from making a top.

w67th, so you're saying Miller and Noah ain't credible? Does that mean you think rents are even lower than he's saying? Or higher?

They are up YOY, just not back to peak. I fail to understand why people cannot understand the distinction.

jason, I don't know which chart you're looking at, but Miller's chart shows, pretty clearly, that Q2 10 rents were HIGHER, regardless of whether or not you factor inflation.

whoa whoa whoa..u mean theres a difference between real and inflation adjusted numbers ????? when I go to pay my mortgage can I opt to use inflation adjusted cash ?

This jibes with what I remember, that apartment rents in the '90s went up at insane rates. The studio I rented in 1999 for $1600 rented for $1900 in 2001 and then for $1600 in 2003. I think it is somewhere in the 1700's right now (I lived next door for 8 years).

Since Rents increased at such a sub-par rate for 20 years, a reversion to the mean could prove interesting.

What is par?

wow, interesting way to look at things... 1994 prices.

SWE - sort of what I was thinking. I would love to see the same charts going back into the '80s. I recall my brother renting a 1BR in '90-91 for $900 on the UWS that had gone empty for 3 months after the prior tenant left at a $1600 rent. When my brother moved about '99-'00 it was $1700. No idea what it is now.

SWE - sort of what I was thinking. I would love to see the same charts going back into the '80s. I recall my brother renting a 1BR in '90-91 for $900 on the UWS that had gone empty for 3 months after the prior tenant left at a $1600 rent. When my brother moved about '99-'00 it was $1700. No idea what it is now.

Yeah, not that I think anything is cheap now, but I do remember some of the high rents 10 years ago, especially compared to what folks were earning...

"Since Rents increased at such a sub-par rate for 20 years, a reversion to the mean could prove interesting."

What we're seeing now may just BE the reversion to the mean. To AvUWS point, we should look at the data in the 80s....

>whoa whoa whoa..u mean theres a difference between real and inflation adjusted numbers ????? when I go to pay my mortgage can I opt to use inflation adjusted cash ?

Exactly

> reversion to the mean

is always conveniently used.

how about reversion to the mean life expectancy since humans first evolved?
how about reversion to the mean population of NYC since American was founded?
how about the dollar reverts to the mean value of a basket of goods?
...

I justed rented for $2495 an apt rented 4 years ago for $2595. Strong location and stripped
sub-market. And it was marleted aggressively and with good photos.

"jason, I don't know which chart you're looking at, but Miller's chart shows, pretty clearly, that Q2 10 rents were HIGHER, regardless of whether or not you factor inflation."

WTF are you talking about? I said not back to peak levels, which is what Miller CLEARLY says in TOP. In his own words.

You said they were up YOY and he said that Q2 2010 was higher than Q2 2011.

No, you fucking moron. Miller said rents in Manhattan were UP YOY.

"...Median effective rents, what tenants pay after landlord- sponsored incentives are calculated, rose to $2,888 a month from $2,700 a year earlier, according to a report today by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. The number of new leases surged 52 percent to 8,572...

...The average price per square foot for a Manhattan apartment jumped 12 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier...according to Jonathan Miller...

...Landlords saw almost no need to offer concessions such as free rent to lure tenants in the second quarter. Incentives were included in about 3.4 percent of deals signed, compared with 60 percent a year earlier, Miller Samuel and Prudential said..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-08/manhattan-apartment-rents-jump-7-as-landlords-end-concessions.html

You are a complete idiot.

“A significant portion of those gains are because the landlord is not as worried about tenant retention and vacancy, Miller said. “There is no category that you can say that rents are cheaper than last year. It’s just not happening.”

Lulled Renter gets hit with over 20% rent increase after 4% the year before
-----------------------------------------------------

She had never before lived in a place so nice.

“It was my first big-girl apartment,” said Ms. Aron, who is now 35. Two years ago, she signed on for $1,801 a month. At the time, “I was able to get a steal, not in my mind but in the market’s mind,” she said.

When the one-year lease expired, she negotiated another one, this time for $1,880 a month.

This past spring, a renewal lease was slipped beneath her door. Her new rent would be $2,266 a month. “I was floored when I saw it,” Ms. Aron said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/17/realestate/after-rent-rise-time-to-pull-up-stakes.html

This kind of bad-faith behavior is why rental markets tend to collapse unless they have some form of rent stabilization, allowing landlords increases when their costs increase but guaranteeing tenants the right to stay if they pay on time.

Landlords who give 20% rent increases when their costs are not rising are simply trying to profit from monopoly power -- they hope that tenants will be unable to move without great inconvenience. If they succeed, they've robbed their tenants. Even if they don't, they force their tenants to bear unnecessary searching and moving costs.

And once they've been mugged in this way, tenants with choices are likely to look for ways to defend themselves, like opting out of the rental market. That, of course, penalizes landlords who do not act in this way.

The only solution is to extend rent stabilization to expensive apartments as well. Eliminating the luxury decontrol threshold would have the side benefit of encouraging landlords to maintain cheaper apartments instead of trying to drive their tenants out.

The land lord is acting rationally. Vacancy rates are down and he no longer has to mark down his units. If we decontrolled more units we would have to deal with more supply competing against his and not be able to raise rents as much. This same building owner had to lower prices significantly over the last few years and is now raising them to pay for higher real estate taxes and labor costs. If the renter wanted more control over her living expenses she needs to buy. The annual decision of having to move in search of lower rent is the downside of renting. Renters want the same benefits as owning without committing the dollars.

Hey Jackass, by he I meant bjw2103. I was just responding to your and bjw2103's responses. You said up YOY but not at peak and then he, bjw2103, said that the charts show that they are down Q2 2010 to Q2 2011.

Bob, don't be offended by Jason. He's got an anger management problem.

In any case, here's the actual data:

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2011 2 2,075 2,995 4,095 5,295 6,675 2,896
2010 2 2,100 3,000 4,499 6,698 9,100 3,000

Inonada - the source of your data says unambiguously that net of concessions, rents are up YOY. You are therefore 100% wrong. End of story.

>bad-faith behavior
>robbed their tenants
>they've been mugged in this way,

so despite that tenants know full well in advance that they are renting for a fixed period of time, that their lease will be ended, that they have no guarantee of renewal or renewal at any rate, that moving costs money, that their landlord is a profit making entity like any other, etc., you still cite criminal activity to describe the landlord and believe that the government has the right to seize property rights from the landlord.

You aren't finance guy. You are communist guy.

Here are average rents:

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2011 2 2,163 3,036 4,456 6,688 10,548 3,465
2010 2 2,268 3,159 4,945 8,024 10,290 3,710

Look at http://assets.prudentialelliman.com/NYCPhotos/retail_reports/rental_q2_2011.pdf

If you look at the table with concessions, the average price per s
http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2011/07/08/manhattan_rents_still_headed_up_with_no_sign_of_stopping.php

Sorry for the fast fingers.

If you look at the table with concessions, the average price per sq ft is up strongly - and it more than $4 per sq ft per month.

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2011/07/08/manhattan_rents_still_headed_up_with_no_sign_of_stopping

jason, you're really into this. I'll ask you to look at the chart again. Q2 2010 and Q2 2011. Look at the blue line - Q2 2010 looks to be at about $3,250, and Q2 2011 at $2,900. Assuming EVERYONE got a free month's rent a year ago (which might be generous, not sure), you're still looking at lower rents YoY.

I only type with my middle fingers.

Yes rents!!!!!!! Are up. I am paying a little more, but that's bc my LL after 3 yrs of zero increases begged me to at least split the differEnce on his re tax increase. Flmaozzzzz

Hey 300_mercer, how goes the reno?

Dont worry, if it's no good this time around you can get it right th next go around. You know when they get the combo viking refridge with the built in microwave, toaster, espresso maker, and mini washer/dryer. And I'd pay a little more for the instant hot water dispenser and ice maker. Well worth it.

But go ahead and spent $100 on your iPhone case. Flmaozzzzz meh, I'd rather buy the iPhone 5 with a built in plaster dildo suction cup thingy.

You are an idiot. The chart is from j miller. Who says rents are up, net of concessions. Stop being a fucking lunatic.

jason10006, maybe I'm just one of those idiots, morons, or just plain stupid people in your eyes, but hopefully you are gracious enough to share some of your superior intellect and clearify the following for me.
Who got the better deal here?

Person A: $3,710/month rent with 10% off in concessions
Person B: $3,465/month rent with 0.28% off in concessions (pretty much no concessions)

First year, including any concession:
Person A paid: $3,339/month
Person B paid: $3,455/month

Second year:
Person A paid: $3,710/month
Person B paid: $3,455/month

jason, you're really good at calling people idiots and dropping f bombs. But you're not really good at reading charts.

If rents are down can someone inform my landlord? In any case, my 20% increase still looks better than anything else I've seen for August 1st...unless I'm moving to stuytown. Live around 15th/2nd and definitely got an under market deal last time around. Lot of my friends and colleagues are seeing increases as well but staying put as the alternative (broker's fee, new layout, movers) is worse.

You ARE an idiot. The man who MADE the fucking chart says that net of concessions, rents are UP YOY. The chart is BEFORE concessions, dummy.

And Sunday, go to the above link to millers Pru report and read the thing first. JM says that the # of LLs offering concessions is down over 90% YOY, so you're example makes no sense. ESPECIALLY when we have actual data and do not need to make hypothetical examples!

These are new lease rates or all rents?

Does it include regulated rents?

oh come on...

you keep forgetting the basic rule.

How are rents in Columbia County? I hear there is a premium if you are closer to the Rip Van Winkle Bridge.

jason10006, just to clarify, Person A start signed in 2Q10 and person B signed in 2Q11. Again, who got the better deal?

Well, if Person B needed an apartment in 2010, he didn't do well no matter what he's paying in 2011.

Person B pays a higher rent in 2011 compared to Person A's 2010 rent. That is translated into rent is up y-o-y by the report. However, Person A is paying a higher rent in 2011 compared to Person B's 2011 rent. To me, that translates to, rent is down slightly y-o-y. fyi, the numbers I used are from the report.

I was joking with you.

how would anyone know?

anyone, or you?

jason10006, being the only one who isn't an idiot here, you must know that there are more than one way to interpret data. Also, you must also notice how the 2010 concession seems to be a nice round 10%, while the 2011 concession comes out to around 0.28%. I am not going to claim that the concession discount data is invalid, but it sure makes me question it.

>jason10006, being the only one who isn't an idiot here,

Jason is a late bloomer. I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that he must know anything. His current position in a Wall Street back office is a result of preferential hiring programs for which he fits many categories.

but you are only a useless provoker.

go away.

stay away.

columbia, before your firm was shut down, you guys would have hired jason, right?

more useless stupid crap.

Yes?

you are here to provoke.

Before your firm was shut down, you guys would or would not have hired jason? Why is a yes or no question so difficult? You must love jason's type.

you are here to provoke.

Hmm, we have a second stuttering idiot on this thread.

as noted.

is there an agency up in Columbia County that deals with stuttering idiots?

hburg, you're a tremendous ninny.

Here we go:

http://therapists.psychologytoday.com/rms/county/NY/Columbia.html

bjw2103, how does it feel that when I do a search for 'bjw2103 ninny' that there are 664 results?

hburg, not even close to that many. Divide your number by 83 maybe.

Really?

bjw2103 ninny
About 664 results (0.06 seconds)

provoke.

stuttering columbiacounty

cunty, another beautiful evening you have lost arguing here huh?