US Debt Downgraded - Where Do We Open Monday??

why you never do options? i am just curious

gaongaon - lol. that was my risk trade. I need at least one high risk high reward little trade. Im not ready to give up though on it, trend is way against me but the position is small enough to hold given other positions.

"why I think the best thing the Fed can do right now is NOTHING. Simply let the deleveraging and pain happen, rather than postponing it and making it hurt more."

we have been in agreement on this one for 3yrs now..its been a long time steve...

Cant time when the buy of a lifetime will be. Of course it will be when everyone thinks your nuts for thinking that way because shit is so depressing. But if this storyline plays out it could mark the last phase of the cycle..a cycle we will be talking about for decades to come, and telling our grandkids how we lived through. If this cycle plays out and the fed lets it play out, there will be a buy of a lifetime in both equities and housing. Just my two cents but this is the end game to what was a 3 or 4 chapter story going back a decade or so

Switel, I'm not smart enough to do options. And I always have a huge amount of dry gunpowder. In a nutshell, it's both financial and emotional.
Urbandigs, I dipped into a drop of USO today. That is comparable to your TBT. You will do better, methinks. And this is one I probably won't pursue aggressively on the downside as I did with TXT, down to 3.57 on March 6, 2009, or was it 3.63.

you need to separate your desires from political reality. we are in the next inning. not but any means the last inning.

>we are in the next inning. not but any means the last inning.

That's insightful

Wha wha? Urban. So ya think 5 yrs then we hit bottom? So 3 plus 5. That sorta looks like a 10yr down cycle for nyc re. And to think of all the clients you sold nyc re and will for the last 3 and 5 yrs to go.

Don't worry, i'll let everyone know when the bottom is in. But it'll be easy to call cause we'll be there awhile. :)

Futures are very volatile preopen, between -90 and +120. Seems like we're in for another wild ride, though I don't think the upside will have lots of stick to it for the next 2000 Dow points down.

This should come as no surprise - the exact same thing happened after QEI - there's no more money being pumped in to keep prices going up, so people cash out, all at the same time.

The Fed statement today might move the markets, but I doubt they'll announce anything that would cause oil prices to rise, though I could be wrong.

We're still up over the past 52 weeks, by a lot: 9% without dividends. Why the media simply doesn't put this into perspective, instead of all of this "turmoil in the markets" is beyond me

EDDIE WILSON?! EDDIE WILSON?! How's plowing all those profits back to work working out for you? You know, pay capital gains, reinvest the "profit," then have it all wiped out in 2 days?

"Why the media simply doesn't put this into perspective, instead of all of this "turmoil in the markets" is beyond me"

Because "everything is fine, no bigs" doesn't keep you glued to your TV set, that's why.

I believe a full 50% of this "recession" and "housing crisis" can be blamed on the consumer being spooked. The media, in order to fill the 24/7 "news" cycle, keeps everyone freaked out to get ratings.

fascinating assesment considering most people dont watch the news and highest ratedx show on tv is jersey shore

The media doesn't put this in perspective, because
A) this is a great headline story
B) most media people are not savvy in this regard
C) it's all to easy to talk even when you dont' know what you are talking about.

well, you certainly define b and c above.

You mean like your mortgage-backed securities hedge, Riversider?

HAHAHAHA!

surely "the media"s lack of professional level savvy of the inner workings of the subject they cover can only be a benefit to the general public, THEIR client, as it explaint the story in terms of its basic elements understandable to the viewer. not to mention the obvious conflict of interest of a professional field being covered people close enough to it to be in a position to take advantage. i am talking about mainstream media not financial media. of course being a member of the financial media doenbt mean u know wtf ur talking about either.

before there were television, radio and internet, there were market panics and bull frenzies

exactly lowery.

"not to mention the obvious conflict of interest of a professional field being covered people close enough to it to be in a position to take advantage."

dammit, i never finish my thought. by taking advantage i don't mean so much monetary gain, but the opportunity to present preconceived personal ideas and inclinations about a situation as (in theory) unbiased factual reporting of the event in question. again, talking about the mainstream media here.

Eddie Wilson?! Eddie Wilson?!

The proof was in the pudding with the Fed today - QEII caused the economy to tank. No new liquidity.

How's that stock portfolio, Eddie Wilson?

steve, it's not nice to gloat - now I'm really, really mad at you, for gloating, so keep your crickets, I'm going to ask my dentist to put my gold fillings back in instead of using them to buy some of your crickets

I'm not gloating, lowery - the market rallied 400 or so points today. I am, however, ridiculing Eddie Wilson, market timer extraordinaire (in his own mind) who boasts about what a great investor he is, only to be proved wrong.

The road down will be a bumpy one: the intraday volatility we've been seeing shows extreme instability. The Dow alone swung in about a 600-point range today: a whole year's action in 4 hours.

Not good. For Eddie Wilson.

you are gloating - you need to learn that the answer to "how's that fish you're eating?" is not "I'm eating SALMON, not FISH!"

I can't remember having heard the Fed say "folks, the economy's gonna be really bad for another tow years." I wasn't around during the Great Depression, only heard the grownups talk about it, but this is not feeling like anything I've been through. So do I get three crickets for the price of two, now that the Dow has rallied? I just can't afford much more gold.

You can get two crickets for the price of three - that's the kind of market we're in.

The Fed not only said, "This is going to suck for two years," they said, "We ain't doing nothing about it." No mention of the debt downgrade, no mention of Congress, and three dissents. The Fed is in turmoil just like Congress and - I hate to say this - the markets.

Today reminded me of the Flash Crash, which yesterday practically was. Extreme volatility is a very, very bearish sign - it doesn't matter whether the day is up, or down. Which is why I've declined to put anything in the markets: this feels JUST LIKE SEPTEMBER 2008, when the market was down one day 400 points, and up the next 300 points.

Unless you're a machine, you shouldn't be in this market. I've cashed out almost everything, and plan to keep it that way. This is way, way above my head right now.

There's probably another 6 months of this to go, as we work through the unwinding of QEII. With 3 dissents there's no appetite in the Fed for any further easing of any sort (thankfully). I think the market will be in fits and seizures just like at the end of QEI. I say go for it, call me when you're calmer.

"Unless you're a machine, you shouldn't be in this market. I've cashed out almost everything, and plan to keep it that way. This is way, way above my head right now."

So if it's way, way above your head, why are you so certain we're going down? I put in a little money this morning. I don't expect much from it anytime soon. But I feel pretty good that there will be some good buying days ahead. Let's check in on this in a few years.

Investing in rental housing might be the single best investment option out there.

"Investing in rental housing..." etc.

I would have agreed with you before these past two weeks, but now I'm thinking layoffs in New York City, another dip in the rental market.

I'm tired of these crickets, though. I don't know what to feed them, and they keep me awake at night. I like rental properties better. Steve, although this feels like a repeat of September 2008, it feels like nothing so much as ..... new. The Fed is nuts. Wall Street is nuts. Congress is nuts. Obama is nuts. I feel like that scene from Rocky Horror Picture Show when Susan Sarandon goes inside the haunted house and someone perched on the banister says, "I'm lucky. You're lucky. We're ALL lucky!"

Lowery, let us not confuse food with shelter. Crickets are excellent food; pup tents are excellent shelter.

RS, I finally agree with you, and that's my plan: buy a few rental units in cashola in Ft. Lauderdale.

Nice to have bjw grayed out....

Manhattan apartment rents increased 9 percent in July from a year earlier as landlords tested how high they could push prices amid few vacancies.

The average apartment in the borough commanded $3,358 in July, up from $3,084 a year earlier and 1 percent below the market peak in May 2007, according to a report today by broker Citi Habitats. Rents averaged $3,754 for two-bedroom units and $5,052 for three-bedroom apartments, both up 9 percent.

Manhattan’s apartment vacancy rate was 0.9 percent, little changed from a year earlier and up from 0.7 percent in June.

steve, where can I get some of these pup tents you keep talking about

Abercrombie & Fitch, lowery, where else?!

RS, in my Dumpy Rental they tried to raise rents, and have been backpedaling for the past month. It's peak season, and Bank of New York just laid off a ton of people.

What do you think that foretells for the future?

EDDIE WILSON?! EDDIE WILSON?!!

Eddie Wilson?! Eddie Wilson?

How's that investment prowess working out for ya?

Eddie Wilson?! Eddie Wilson?

How's that investment prowess working out for ya?

Sorry, what are you gloating about? The daily fluctuations of the stock market? Maybe wait at LEAST a couple months before crowing about it. Lest we recall your decision to short the market at about the level it is now.

S&P ratings are irrelevant. Market has already downgraded France voting only German truly AAA.
It's also rediculous to think the Isle of Man is a better credit risk than the United States.

im getting long crickets--see piece in ny'er on entomophagy--yum

steve, btwn short stox and long crickets, your tea leaves are humming

RS, The Isle of Man is a tax haven. Best do your research before opining.

WB - I don't think this is the end. Just my own opinion, and g-d knows I've been badly wrong in the past.

Ah, to gray out bjw...!

"Abercrombie & Fitch, lowery, where else?!"

Puppy tents at Abercrombie & Fitch? I was looking at the pet supply stores, where I was buying all my crickets. Do you mean they have puppy supplies at Abercrombie? This market is so crazy. You guys all have my head spinning. You send me to a pet supply shop for an alternative to gold. Then when I look for a tent for my puppy you tell me I should be in a snooty men's clothes store!! You make about as much sense as the Federal Reserve.

i think similarly, that there is much more downside to current circumstances, and worry that our stock market may be beginning a track comparable to that of the japanese since 1990

i have been in cash since lucky exit from real estate and stock market in 2007, missed the 2009 bottom, refused to chase it since

feeling sorta vindicated, want to feel moreso---worry that, a la japan, for someone older than 40 YO, stocks should be treated as a trade item not a portfolio item

IMHO we're in a long-term bear market. The QEII debacle only made things worse. The Fed basically said as much yesterday - no new help for speculators.

This massive interday and intraday volatility is not a good sign. It is characteristic of a crash. It's the same thing that happened in 2008.

Joe Retail Investor is not going to be investing in stocks anytime soon after 2008-2009, a 2010 Flash Crash, and now 2011. Like the Irish Carpenter before him, Joe R. I. needs security, and there isn't any. These are not minor moves - 4% per day, 6% interday - and it is not sustainable.

We are faced with a Crazy Congress, and Inept President, and a Hapless Fed. What else is to be expected?

EDDIE WILSON?! EDDIE WILSON?!

Oh, did I mention: extremely high volume today.

Eddie Wilson?

Eddie Wilson?

Where are you Eddie? CATCHING CRICKETS?

Can you hear me now?

Can you hear me now?

Hahnahaaaaaa $500psf. Tools.

well, I told you puppy tents are hard to find today..........

w67 must be petrzitz - only petrzitz would say, "Tools."

WILSON! WILSON! Every time I hear that I think of that damn cast away movie and a volleyball

Wilson got served.

This is about Europe.

Gold is now more expensive than Platinum. I never thought I would ever see that one.

And platinum is far more valuable than gold.

Which is why the trade makes no sense - I don't care what the price is or how much it goes up: not touching it.

RS - this is not alone about Europe: the same thing happened at the end of QEII, with the Flash Crash. Since QEII the market was up on low volume and high margin, but as soon as the money stopped pouring in, the chips were called. This was foreseeable from miles away.

Europe is a huge problem, but so is China (which got forgotten in yesterday's rally) and the US. This has set up exactly like every crash we've had since the Tequila Crisis.

These people crack me up:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44078875/

Dougie Kass! For MONTHS, when he was short, he was bemoaning how the market didn't realize the headwinds it was up against and kept on saying he was going short as the market was rising. Then in his last publicized appearance - apres crash - he was talking about LONG bets.

And he got burned again. So now the market has bottomed out.

Nope.

EDDIE WILSON?! EDDIE WILSON?!

I think he must be crying over this long-term capital gains.

Or should I say short-term capital losses?

Eddie Wilson? Where are you, Eddie Wilson...?

Eddie Wilson?! Where are you, Eddie Wilson....?

selling another 1/3 of gld on the open today...my gold shares are dwindling!!

They're increasing the margin requirements on gold. 'Bout time.

Volatility still high - 200+ point swing in 5 minutes. Does not bode well.

Out - the best place to be in the market.

Eddie Wilson?! Eddie Wilson?!

steve you should name your next pet eddie wilson. that way you can relive your victory many times a day. think how funny it will be to scold it for pooping on your floor!

Volatility still enormously high - 400 point range in 2 hours.

only in bear markets do we see rallies like this

Volatility up even more today - stocks surge 400 points, 600 point range on the day, volume drops.

These swings are not good. Personally I'd like to see a slow, steady fall, or even rise, or something. This is very, very dangerous, and is just like 2008.

This is bear market volatility, too, UD:

http://www.eurojournals.com/jmib1%20cunado.pdf

Wild swings for no apparent reason were also the order of the day before QEII, and after QEI. While some up and down is to be expected, the sudden collapse in a few weeks - which should have taken a few months - and this constant bobbing up and down with huge swings during the day are the hallmark of a major crash.

I'm very concerned. The market is going down in part because of a perceived lack of econoimic leadership.
The President just doesn't get the stuff, Larry Summers abandoned ship and Geithner is pretty much running the show, so we're getting the Robert Rubin policies combined with inaction. Market sees the U.S. as following Japan, not because we won't embark on more government spending or quantitative easing, but because nobody has the courage to deal with a much needed restructuring of the big banks and the consumer. Bank America is very symbolic of what's going on and in fact the price action(started tanking afew months ago) in BAC foreshadowed the current crisis we're seeing now.

Craziest and most unstable market since 2008. Not good for the economy: Down 600 points one day, up 400 the next, down 600 the next, up 500 the next.

Not being driven by fundamentals - jobs were dismal, trade deficit worse. Nothing has changed in Europe. Down days still much higher volume than up days.

Exactly what happened in 2008.

Harrowing.

This cannot end well.

"This cannot end well."

It certainly can. And most likely will. Of course, it depends on what you mean by "end." And for whom.

.....and what "well" means....

don't forget "erudite"

Ah, to have bjw grayed out!

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

"I noted in an earlier blog that corporate insider buying had increased. Charles Biderman at TrimTabs.com messaged me this morning to say that the average daily insider buying month-to-date is the second highest since June 2008...."

And that's supposed to make us feel better?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44109427

Purely technical trading, I think: Death Cross approaching, bottom of head-and-shoulders at Dow 10,650ish, and 20% correction at Dow 10,250.

Very dangerous. Very bad for the economy - adds to the unease. June 2008....

Ban on short selling:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/12/business/global/europe-considers-ban-on-short-selling.html?_r=1&hp

Not a good omen.

Steve, is this still "harrowing" for you? I'm back to exactly where I was a month ago.

Eddie Wilson....

bj, youre what youve always been and will always be: a liar

s&p one month ago 1350; today 1189

and youre exsctly back to where you were a month ago--youre the next stevie cohen!!!

it's incredible the blather you produce, especially when it's so obvious that you exist in some strange plastic version of reality

Bottoms, you really are a moron. While I do have quite a bit invested in IVV, I also have a fair amount in NWSA, which is actually UP 7% from a month ago. So thanks for assuming to know where I've invested, but you're just proving yourself (again and again) to be utterly clueless, not to mention nasty in the process. Small wonder you're a part of the tiny grey league.

it's anyone's guess (including, most importantly, yours) what you are "invested" in--why dont you put something reasonable definitive on the record right now??--your random association of long s&p/long news corp is a nice arb pair....for you...the next stevie cohen!!!

Bottoms, I honestly couldn't care less if you believed me or not. I find it bizarre that you think anyone would make it up - for what purpose exactly? I'm by no means a supremely gifted investor. There are more than a few people on here who are clearly more versed in equities than I am. It could all tank from here, for sure. But unlike Steve, I didn't panic at all in these past few weeks. In fact, I picked up a bit more close to the bottom, and frankly kind of hoped things would have tanked a bit more so I could push in even more cash. What's your angle here, bottoms? Most of your time spent on SE is railing at others. Why don't you tell us where you've put your money for a change?

Okay, WB, you forced me to read bjwblather....

No, BJW, I didn't panic at all. I set limit orders and cleared most of my short positions at a profit as the market collapsed. I've kept a small amount in the market, but I am now 90% cash, waiting for a clear pattern to emerge.

If you really think the market is going up, bjwblather, I recommend that you go fully long 100%, because you will lose your shirt. After a massive decline like we've seen over the past 3 weeks - at one point down 15% in 15 days - a period of consolidation is normal. Consolidation is when prices tend to go against trend on very light volume. Friday and today are precisely that. Sometimes it's called a relief rally, and it occurs especially in a significantly oversold market. Before commenting, looking up the definition of "oversold" and you will see it has nothing to do with relative prices or fundamentals - it's a technical indicator.

Everything that caused the market to collapse - and the panic we saw Monday through Friday of last week - still exists. Things are not getting better; they are getting worse. If you look at volumes and directionality the only thing that's happened is that people stopped selling. That does not mean that they won't sell tomorrow, or that the minicrash of last week has inspired confidence in anyone.

You will note that the market went up on light volume on two days when the economic news was abysmal: Friday, when consumer confidence collapsed; and today, when the manufacturing index plummeted. The news out of Europe was just as bad last Friday - France has ground to a halt, Germany is not far behind. Despite the Talking Heads in the news, jobs on Thursday were horrible.

If you want to go long in this environment, g-d bless. We're headed straight for a double-dip, in fundamental terms. In technical terms, we looked headed back to retesting the 2009 lows. It will not happen in one day, and things may change and this may not happen at all. But that's what it looks like today.

Now, WB - PLEASE DON'T MAKE ME READ BJW AGAIN!

So steve is wrong again. Shocking.

steve- where is that major NYC real estate crash you have been predicting for years?? Oh, you were wrong on that too . . .

apologies steve--i just found it astounding that bj referred to you as in a state of panic. you had been very straightforward about being short (and underwater) for some time. I couldn't reconcile panic with your long-well-advertised position, especially in light of the recent crapping out of the market, which took you to a profit, short covered, in cash.

My position has also been long-well-advertised, for those who care and can read. BJ seems to care, given her inquiry, but apparently cant read. I wont waste time restating.

bj, given her positions, has outdone BSExposer as master trader. Her two stock long/long arbitrage pairing of S&P etf with News Corp is a true nugget of ingenuity. A much craftier approach than BS's 3 stock long portfolio.

and to think this is a real estate site, and yet here we are collecting such amazing investment nuggets!!

What am I wrong about this time, LICCdope?

Best I can tell, real estate in Manhattan - where you wish you could live - is down 25% from the peak and still falling.

on no...now LICDope!! another genius chimes in...

it's so you, LICDope..a guy plays a market short, sticks to his guns through some pain, gets vindicated when said market finally tanks, covers his short and you pop up calling him wrong...

have you two discussed the merits of real estate investment in LIC vs Williamsburg??

Bottoms, while you're wooing Steve (it's cute, really), let me point you to Esteban's prior posts in this very thread, including such phrases as: "major crash", "harrowing", "this cannot end well", "very dangerous", "very bad for the economy", none of which indicate any sort of panic, right? And all this is based on what? Technical "analysis"? Get real.

As for your "position" being "long-well-advertised", please post again. I must have missed it, what with having to unhide your remarks all the time.

"We're headed straight for a double-dip, in fundamental terms. In technical terms, we looked headed back to retesting the 2009 lows. It will not happen in one day, and things may change and this may not happen at all. But that's what it looks like today."

A retest of the 2009 lows would be a hell of a buying opportunity. I wouldn't mind that at all. But your "things may change and this may not happen at all" is really powerful insight. Keep reading them charts!

And to go back to Steve's RE predictions, here they are:

"I haven't seen the apartment to place the bet: perhaps it was the deal of the century. A better bet would be that average prices will fall - I'll take you up on that one: $800 psf by 2010."
"I really do believe that to be the case, deep down, with all my heart and soul"

This was in reference to the West Village, to make matters worse. I actually hope prices do get that low there, but let's just say the track record is not stellar with this one.

Oh, WB, you've unleashed the arsehole!

Everything I said about our minicrash last weeks stands.

A retest of the 2009 lows would be a great buying opportunity - but being long between here and there isn't.

Today (2011) the median psf in the West Village for co-ops is:

We found 78 listings
Median price: $587,500 Median size: 550 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,060

We know there has been an uptick since QE-Stupid, so that's not too shabby a prediction from several years ago, that didn't take QE-Stupid into account.

Case closed.

Re-ignored. And WB - DO NOT ENGAGE THIS FOOL!

it can be amusing, tho oft turn tiresome, as now

Here's some good insight, blowjb:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44147368

Wild swings are not indicative of a healthy stock market. They are indicative of a crash. Stocks are up 180 points today on a day when the manufacturing index fell precipitously. Buy orders account for 90% of the volume, and volume is exceedingly thin.

Gold is up, oil is up, stocks are up. It is irrational, and I wouldn't be complacent.

I wouldn't touch this market f

Look at that! I got cut off! :)

Looks like another rally on the worst consumer sentiment in a generation (Friday) and the worst manufacturing data in years (Monday). Volume very light, 90% of orders are buy orders, and gold and oil are both up at the same time (which they shouldn't be).

I think blowjb should take a look at a 5-year S&P chart, look at the fall from July 2008 through the March 2009 lows: 8 months in all, with multiple days of huge price swings in both directions.

This isn't Lehman, granted. But everybody knows that the economy is getting slower, not faster, and is approaching stall speed of <2% growth. Swings and volatility like this only occur in bear markets.

Glad to be cash.

"but I am now 90% cash, waiting for a clear pattern to emerge"

Hopefully your "clear pattern" will "emerge" by the end of this decade, otherwise your cash will be worth about 1/2 of what it currently is (in purchasing power). Cash = Trash.

But, hey, don't listen to me - I'm just some random moron. Listen to this guy: "The lower things go, the more I buy. We are in the business of buying," he said, adding that he had "never been better." http://www.businessinsider.com/buffett-is-in-buy-mode-2011-8

"Glad to be cash"

Bad decision. Cash is the absolute worst long term asset one can have. By far. Not even close.

I can see keeping, say, 20% cash or so for a rainy day - but 90%??? With RE prices nationwide at rock bottom and stocks reasonably priced??? Nuts IMO.

LESSON FROM THE MASTER - IGNORE HIS ADVICE AT YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL PERIL, FOLKS:

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

"worst long term asset"

Obviously I am referring to investible assets (as opposed to a Porsche, etc.)

okay, will wade in here but have to say the muck is multiples deeper than usual with the usual suspects involved. first off, steve has indeed been droning on about being short FOR THE PAST 15 mos (or thereabouts) and whatever shorts he had would no doubt have been lost in the ensuing straight line run-up since his techno babble began. there was indeed a severe market downdraft but to suggest he was able to migrate through the preceeding signficant upturn is folly. of course, he took the oppty to cash in an make a signficant profit (what else?) in the ensuing calamity but all of it is almost laughable. agreed that cash at the moment is not a bad strategy for the risk adverse but let us know when your "shorting" is in the cards. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

"We know there has been an uptick since QE-Stupid, so that's not too shabby a prediction from several years ago, that didn't take QE-Stupid into account.
Case closed."

Case closed? You were absolutely WRONG. $1,060 isn't even close to $800, and it's 20 months later than your prediction was supposed to materialize, of course. But you believed with "all [your] heart and soul," which must count for something, right?

"Oh, WB, you've unleashed the arsehole!"
"Here's some good insight, blowjb:"

Steve, always a class act. BSexposer is right about this one, sorry.

Rangersfan - I've been over 90% long or more (usually around 97-98% long, with only 2-3% cash) ever since February 2009. I'm still around 97% long, 3% cash. Unlike SteveJHX, I don't believe I can predict short term stock market movements, so I don't bother trying. He's much smarter than me, obviously.

"Case closed? You were absolutely WRONG"

BJW - never let the facts get in the way of a good story, OK?

but bse, you have said your portfolio consists mostly of investment in 3 stocks--that you studied really hard, picked three, and youre sticking with that--i cant imagine a more hare-brained approach--you can cut/paste warren til the cows come home, but your approach is laughable

and you are quite wrong...there have been plenty of relatively long periods of time over the last century where cash has been king...and to have cash on hand now seems quite sensible--said cash didnt see 10-15% of value evaporate of recent, and it's on hand for purchases in case of even lower prices, a situation I find more likely that not

BSexposer, my bad, don't know what I was thinking.

Btw, steve may believe he can predict short term stock market movements (the charts, the charts!), but "things may change and this may not happen at all." So there's always that.

Bottoms, but you still haven't told us what your "position" is. Please share. Also, do let us know when you get Steve's number. I'm rooting for you.

Sorry, rangersfan - my shorts made money.

Don't listen to me - pretend I'm on Fast Money.

What cracks me up is how everybody was saying that housing was such a great investment, far better than stocks, until housing crashed. Now they're saying that stocks are far better than housing because stocks are up.

Same people.

My views haven't changed: owner-occupied housing is a capitalized expense stream. It does not increase significantly in the long-term (change is the same as in incomes).

Stocks are a better investment in the long-term. However, we've seen a 30% rise in all asset classes since QE-Stupid. It is unlikely to last.

We've seen thousand point swings in the market in a matter of days. Today Dow up 207 points on horrible economic news and anemic volume. Typical pattern for a bear market.

I agree with Warren Buffett. I just don't think things are cheap right now, and I don't want to get involved in extreme short-term volatility. I was burned by doing that once before; never again.

Thankfully, blowjb is grayed-out again!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44148453

Funny how they assume you'll be in cash forever, just because you are today.

BSexposer, quoting Buffet - AGAIN!!!! - yawn.

BRK.A as an investment over the past 13 years - 4% annual ROR

Gold $1,763 now.

Gold as a speculative trade over past 13 years - over 14% annual ROR

Keep listening to Buffet, there, sport.

" I just don't think things are cheap right now, and I don't want to get involved in extreme short-term volatility"

If you are afraid of short-term quotational losses, then go buy some Florida or Las Vegas real estate and rent it out. Personally, I couldn't care less about short-term volatility, except to the extent I can buy more at lower prices (which I enjoy doing).

"but bse, you have said your portfolio consists mostly of investment in 3 stocks--that you studied really hard, picked three, and youre sticking with that--i cant imagine a more hare-brained approach--you can cut/paste warren til the cows come home, but your approach is laughable"

My approach my be "laughable", but it's allowed me to increase my wealth by 14.6% since October 2007 (when I started actively investing). If I had left all my $$$ in cash since then, I would be a lot poorer. (And, yes, I will continue to post Buffett quotes & advice, since he is an absolute genius when it comes to investing - and I am humble enough to acknowledge that fact.)