US Debt Downgraded - Where Do We Open Monday??

the drumroll is getting old - I'm remembering a game we used to play as children - we called it "let's do the Indian rain dance!"

Depends on where on Park Avenue, UD.

stevejhx
about 3 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Depends on where on Park Avenue, UD

the intersection of "keep waiting" and "never going to happen"

Steve, will you vote for Rick Perry now? He seems slightly opposed to a 3rd round of quantitative easing, as you do.

i know steve..the prediction is so general that it could mean anything. But he clarified that prime classic 6s will still reach that 500/sft level..so I take that to mean full service prewar park ave classic 6s and 7s and the like in the 70s through low 90s on park avenue. While it seems an amazing opportunity to buy such a product at such a discount, if it actually happens I have to wonder what kind of social changes "city living" will have experienced to get to those levels in the first place

I think you might see a median of $800 psf in many prime locations - Chelsea, GV - which would be about 20% to 30% down from where we are, or 50% down from the peak. As I've always said, it will take a long time - the last real-estate downturn was a 10-year event.

But I don't think that you'll ever get those prices on prime Park Ave., etc. Maybe not-so-prime Riverside Drive, but not on prime Park Avenue.

Speaking of the stock market, the medium-term downtrend was probably confirmed today; no relief rally after a huge fall the day before, and on an options expiration day, when people should have been scrambling to get market prices to align with strike prices. True confirmation will come after a close below the post-downgrade close of last week on heavy volume, that stays there.

The FUNDAMENTALS seem to support that: a retesting of the 2009 lows. Which will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime, if it gets to that.

sold 1/2 of my gld holdings late yesterday..this is now the lowest amount of gold that I have since mid 2007 when I started buying. I still have a little, but will only buy if we correct. So if it goes parabolic, I will miss the last run. I do look forward to when gold really falls though because that will mark the final phase of this process and signal that we are on a better road to sustainable growth in time.

Imagine people on Park Ave, etc don't need to sell. In fact, the average classic 6 owner typically will be in solid financial shape. So what would cause the downward spiral? I agree with other posters - the drum roll is getting old. Granted, no one is likely to make $ on RE anytime soon and some people who purchased at peak might be struggling but few things tends to touch the uber wealthy.

Still a very volatile market; no capitulation yet. Guess people are a) short covering after the massive fall so quickly; and b) hoping for a Fed Miracle on Friday, b/c today's economic news was dismal again.

However, there won't be one.

I do agree that we need one more round of puking and then its the 'buy of a lifetime'..thats when gold falls real hard. But it may fall from 2200, who knows. Dont think its put its high in yet for this run

Steve, can we get an update? How long exactly is "short-to-medium term" for you? I'm gonna guess 3 months is not long enough to be short term now, right?

PS - I'm less than 4% off my portfolio's absolute peak. And actually a bit bummed about it. Was counting on your wildly overconfident conviction that equities would tank so I could buy more at bargain prices. Just gonna have to be more patient I guess...

it's probably a good idea to start selling now.

Good move, bjw! That's why your comments are usually worthless, taking something I said 8 weeks ago and answering it when it suits you.

To put things into perspective, the Dow was at 10,340 just two weeks ago. All asset classes have surged since then, on very thin volume (1/2 to 1/3 normal).

Nothing has changed. The economic news is still dismal, though I'm glad that your claim your portfolio is off "less than 4% from its absolute peak," because you - along with Eddie Wilson - NEED TO SEND YOUR CV'S TO GOLDMAN SACHS RIGHT AWAY!

They need you. Their trading results have been DISMAL. While stocks are up 15% from their recent low (two weeks ago - which means that your portfolio, 2 weeks ago, was 20% underwater by your own admission: AND YOU'RE BRAGGING!) they are still down 10% from their medium-term peak. Given your prowess, and clairvoyant ability to predict with uncanny accuracy movements in the stock market, YOU MUST ADVISE GOLDMAN SACHS RIGHT NOW SO THAT THEY WILL HIRE YOU. Consistently outperforming the stock market by 6% MAKES YOU A GENIUS.

In fact, you should write a book. Maybe Eddie Wilson will co-author it for you.

Fool.

As I said, NOTHING has changed materially in the economy, the stock market has no discernible direction. Down days have twice or more the volume of up days. Greece will still default.

I would like to remind you that in 2008, the Dow rallied 900 POINTS in a single day. And 3 months later it fell by 3,000.

Don't count your chickens: I told you, I'm out of the market, and staying that way.

Oh, I forgot to mention - not only the low volume, but the VIX has not changed materially all the way up from the 10,340 bottom.

Another hopeful sign.

Read Brooks's advice. The economy is not doing well.

Steve, just asking for a little update - no need to get all touchy/defensive. As I've said many times, I'm no investing genius, but you seem to know everything about everything, so figured I'd check in on your doomsday predictions (remember: "Harrowing. This cannot end well."). No one here's bragging or counting chickens - that ain't very fun anyway, plus, as I said, I actually would like to buy more at cheaper prices. But it's much more fun seeing you writhe and squirm about the daily fluctuations in the stock market and pretend like you never made the bogus calls you make over and over again.

"which means that your portfolio, 2 weeks ago, was 20% underwater by your own admission"
Oh do explain that one. Your math skills are suspect.

moving higher in october...this could be another year where stocks just fly up through year end and people keep chasing. money managers cant miss the train

"But it's much more fun seeing you writhe and squirm about the daily fluctuations in the stock market."

That's called volatility, bjw - I don't writhe and squirm, merely state.

"and pretend like you never made the bogus calls you make over and over again."

I never denied anything that I've said, whether it's been right, or wrong: it's been both. However, your penchant for taking things out of context is exceeded only by Eddie Wilson's.

This is not "over" by far:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45013294

I've also said many times that in an environment like today's, stock and commodity prices could be bid all the way back up to the one-year high. They've already made a new one-year low, and they could very well go much lower. I personally think they will, and I think this low-volume high volatility rally is a bear market rally. I might be wrong, but I looked over the past 10 years for any volatility patterns similar to what's been going on since September, and except for October 2008, I couldn't find any.

"Oh do explain that one."

Stocks up 15%, you're down 4%. 4 + 15 = 19 ~ 20.

Seems pretty plain. UNLESS your 4% underwater position did not move with the market over the past 2 weeks.

Which of course would be one more reason for you to get on the horn with Goldman. THEY NEED YOU!

"Good move, bjw! That's why your comments are usually worthless, taking something I said 8 weeks ago and answering it when it suits you."

Steve's comments are worth a lot... when you do the opposite of what he said.

"To put things into perspective, the Dow was at 10,340 just two weeks ago. All asset classes have surged since then, on very thin volume (1/2 to 1/3 normal). "

Ironic, dow was at 10,300 when Steve said to short it as well.

Steve does spend a lot of time explaining why he keeps losing money.

> I never denied anything that I've said

Now THAT is a huge lie... even from Steve...

Noone has changed their story more...

Brokerages are doing some short term trading to make some dough to keep clients. And going into Q4 is time to do it. But my brokerage told me that they expect a s##tstorm over the super committee and they are not recommending equities. Too dangerous. Better opportunities in other asset classes.

"This is not "over" by far:"

No, it ain't. But you have yet to explain what you mean by "over." I'd love to know...

"Stocks up 15%, you're down 4%. 4 + 15 = 19 ~ 20.
Seems pretty plain. UNLESS your 4% underwater position did not move with the market over the past 2 weeks."

Stocks "up 15%" somehow extrapolates to my portfolio? Amazing work, detective. Also, to be underwater, you'd have to know what I initially paid, which (and correct me if I'm wrong) is information you do not have. If this is how you conduct your analyses...

apt23, which asset classes? How can you leave us hanging like that?

high yield. commodities

Really, EW? What story did I change? The only story that I've changed is your misinterpretation of what I said.

"Ironic, dow was at 10,300 when Steve said to short it as well."

Ironic, Dow was at 10,300 TEN YEARS AGO, too.

"Steve's comments are worth a lot... when you do the opposite of what he said."

Then I highly recommend you do that. In the meantime, rumor has it that you're on Troll Watch. Best be careful....

"Ironic, Dow was at 10,300 TEN YEARS AGO, too."

Irrelevant. The point is you made your short call at a pretty bad time, and then somehow crowed about how those shorts made you money. I don't claim to know all the ins-and-outs of your transactions (only you have that power with strangers' portfolios), but seems a bit curious to the outside observer. Of course, given your difficulties with math, this may just be an honest boo-boo on your part...

"The point is you made your short call at a pretty bad time, and then somehow crowed about how those shorts made you money."

I see your point. You are confused. I did a number of shorts. The ones I made (a considerable amount of) money on were in March 2010, pre-Flash Crash. I don't remember the exact amount, but I made a large amount.

I also shorted again at about Dow 11,400, approximately a year ago. I made a slight profit on those shorts, which I sold prior to the downgrade debacle.

I also shorted at about 10,800 (not 10,300) - one of those shorts I made 20% on in about a week. The rest were a wash - mostly small losses that I bailed out of during the post-downgrade debacle, but overall a slight profit when everything taken together.

Is that clear? Most - though not all - of the transactions show a profit, but overall they do show a small profit.

Was this my best trading move ever? By far no. In fact, at times it was downright painful, but since it's Play Money, it doesn't really matter. I learned some mighty good lessons, and what mistakes I made I've learned from.

The fact is, however, that I have an enormous amount of cash right now, and if I see an investment I am ready, willing, and able to make it. I said 2 months ago that this was not a market that I wanted to be in; I said there seemed to be a bear flag pattern but that it hadn't been confirmed.

And it wasn't - and stocks have rallied about 15% in 3 weeks, on low volume and high volatility. A Greece Relief Rally is basically what we're looking at, in my book, but I'm not willing to bet that stocks will go up, or down, from this point. The newsletters I get feel the same way; when there is a rally like the one over the past 3 weeks, unless it is confirmed with significant volume and low volatility, coupled with good economic news, it is not reliable.

I do not believe this rally any more than I believed that the bear flag was fully in, or that we had entered a bear market when we touched the 20% down level. I do think this is all keyed off of Europe, and I think that it is hopelessly misguided because Europe is SCREWED, but I'm not willing to spend a dime on it.

I don't trust this market.

That's my advice, so now it's time for you to trust it.

Steve, I don't see how you reconcile these statements:

"The ones I made (a considerable amount of) money on"
"The rest were a wash - mostly small losses"
"overall they do show a small profit."

If you made a lot on a couple trades and only saw small losses, how did you end up with a "small" profit overall?

"That's my advice, so now it's time for you to trust it."

Cocky, huh? I think the fear you express for this market is actually perfectly normal and understandable. But following that kind of thinking isn't always what beats the market. I am quite tempted to sell a whole chunk of stuff right about now, but I wonder if that's a bigger gamble than the one you think I'd be making by staying put for the moment. We'll see...

Hey bjw

I reconcile those statements because the trades were a year apart.

The other comment refers to the sum-total of all of the other trades, made a year later.

The "my advice" comment was sarcastic, aimed at Troll Wilson. For many years I consistently beat the market handily, and then I messed things up, lost a lot in 2008 - I had never experienced a financial panic before, and I don't know anyone alive who had. Since then, this is a very different market from the 1990-2007 market (I avoided the dot.com boom/bust, so no comment there except to say that I saw it coming), and very different economic times, unprecedented, really, given the amount of direct government intervention, which we'll be living with probably for the next 10-15 years, as unwinding the Fed's balance sheet is not going to be easy. It's very difficult to say what is real, and what is government-induced, or what the next cockamamie Fed idea is going to do to twist the markets again. Since the Fed has defined inflation away by excluding food, energy, and most housing costs, and the Commerce Department has redefined unemployment by not counting people who can't find a job, you can pretty much make the economy look like anything you want.

My strategy right now is just to amass cash because nobody can take that away. My business is booming though I've had to invest a lot in it, and more investments to come. But still, with no debts and my Suze Orman 1-year emergency fund set aside and being extremely cash-flow positive with no chance ever of being fired (computers can't do my job, and I work for about 10 different clients on a regular basis) I'm in a better position than most. I would be really, really worried if I had a job with a company that could lay me off, because the chances are, they will.

Steve, not sure what the timing has to do with that. That equation (big gains + small losses = small profit) didn't make much sense until you confessed that you "lost a lot." A lot of us did (myself included) but were brave/dumb enough to buy more at pretty darn cheap prices. The run-up sense does beg for a bit more of a correction - I just don't see the doomsday scenario you're painting in every post. Let's revisit this in a couple months.

PS - computers will probably be able to do your job sooner than you think.

*since* (not sense)

i think in a few months you'll see that if you sold yestersday... it would have been a good sale.

Brooks, maybe. The nice thing about ETFs though is, if I lose money from here on out, I can sell at the end of the year, buy back a nearly identical ETF instantly, and get a nice tax deduction, all with no transaction fees.

Debt/GDP: The U.S. is now joining this illustrious group of having debt at or above annual GDP.
(CIA Factbook)

1 Zimbabwe 234.10 % 2010 est.

2 Japan 197.50 2010 est.

3 Saint Kitts and Nevis 185.00 2009 est.

4 Greece 142.80 2010 est.

5 Lebanon 133.80 2010 est.

6 Jamaica 126.50 2010 est.

7 Iceland 126.10 2010 est.

8 Italy 119.10 2010 est.

9 Singapore 105.80 2010 est.

10 Barbados 102.10 2010 est.

11 Belgium 100.90 2010 est.

12 USA 100.00 2011 III quarter

13 Ireland 96.70 2010 est.

"computers will probably be able to do your job sooner than you think."

Computers can't even properly convert a pdf into text, never mind figure out what a 250-word sentence means, then rework it and translate it, converting Roman law into English law.

Not possible. Not even worried. Most people can't figure out what I do, never mind most computers.

"until you confessed that you "lost a lot.""

I've posted that for years, bjw - huge losses in 2008, no lie. Right investment - inverse mutual funds - but they didn't work as advertised. Lots of people got screwed.

On the bright side, I don't have to pay tax on any capital gains for a long time to come, if ever.

And again, I make a very handsome income, so I've reconstituted myself quite well.

"the doomsday scenario you're painting in every post."

You're mistaken - I've said repeatedly that I don't expect another 2008 anytime soon. I do, however, see a clear disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, more than I've ever seen in my entire life. Look at today's consumer confidence index - abysmal - Case Shiller - abysmal - Fed surveys - abysmal. Europe. China. They all indicate that the economy of the world is slowing if not contracting (again), yet the bubble mentality goes on.

It will take a long time to work through the aftermath of 2008. We're not over with it yet. The Fed CAN'T prop up prices by reinflating a bubble that had to burst. It could if there were jobs, but there are no jobs. Inflating prices at a time of no jobs will only cause stagflation.

Which is exactly what we're seeing.

I happen to be of the "pull the band-aid off fast" mentality, rather than the "let the wound fester" mentality: personally, I think the healthiest thing that could happen would be for the Fed to get out of the way and let the deflation happen, as it must. I think we need a cure similar to the Volcker cure of the 80's: pull the plug on the leverage.

The government can't prop up housing prices when housing prices do not correspond to incomes - to think otherwise is sheer insanity. The government can't allow - encourage! - food and energy prices to rise when there are so many unemployed. These policies are bound to fail, and to make the failure worse than it would otherwise be.

I think it's fundamental economics, and common sense. The second half of the recession MUST happen with oil at $95 a barrel, and corn prices at 2008 levels. There's just no other way to reduce those prices back to a level sustainable by household incomes, which have not even come close to 2008's level.

once again - steve is spot on. Hey, why don't you add another client to your list - the U.S. Govt?

you guys really belive China is gonna slow down ?

question: where does china sell a shit pile of stuff?
hint: starts with a u and ends with an s

China already has slowed down.

Europe - Germany especially - is at a standstill. The US is slowing...crawling.

This confirmed by most major industrial companies:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturers-curb-outlooks-2011-10-25?dist=countdown

Yet oil is up to $95 a barrel, and copper up 15% in 2 days.

There is a disconnect between speculation and reality: it should be noted that speculation caused the 2008 crash, the 1929 crash, and every market crash in the 19th century. This new deregulation and leverage is not working.

>estion: where does china sell a shit pile of stuff?
hint: starts with a u and ends with an s

ur ass?

Incredible... the more Steve loses, the more advice he posts...

"I've posted that for years, bjw - huge losses in 2008, no lie. Right investment - inverse mutual funds - but they didn't work as advertised. Lots of people got screwed."

ROTFL.... yeah, they usually don't work when you buy inverse investments at the bottom.
It was the fund's fault! (not the idiot who bought them)

And steve's accounting of his buys are pure fantasy. Steve was shorting at 10,300, and then the market went up big time. He also started posting about that recently, said he loved his shorts... and we went up over 1000 points.

With all of steve's lies, he's been called out a few times to be specific about his trades, and he came up with complete garbage. BSexposer completely called him out on it.

The guy is the worst investor I know, short of SteveF.

> "Ironic, dow was at 10,300 when Steve said to short it as well."
> Ironic, Dow was at 10,300 TEN YEARS AGO, too.

See, there it is, Steve. With actual trades, you can't change the date of when you traded after the fact.

In steve's posts, he has no problem moving things around a decade or two.

I have to thank Steve, though... he's been great help in making money. I just keep betting against his calls.

"relevant. The point is you made your short call at a pretty bad time, and then somehow crowed about how those shorts made you money. I don't claim to know all the ins-and-outs of your transactions (only you have that power with strangers' portfolios), but seems a bit curious to the outside observer. Of course, given your difficulties with math, this may just be an honest boo-boo on your part..."

Ha, true.

Remember, Steve was "accidentally" adding 100% to all of his returns....

"I have to thank Steve, though... he's been great help in making money. I just keep betting against his calls."

swe, this is all in good fun (and quite hilarious), but I am gullible and have to ask - do you really base any investment decisions on what Steve says? That would be amazing (though I don't doubt you'd do pretty well).

And yes, I remember the "accidental" doubling. I have talked to eTrade about this - they won't give me that offer. WTF?

You don't see the "+100%" button in your account? Oh wait, that's Google +1. Once again, Steve ahead of his time.

No, not totally serious... but I do sometimes use this board and others to gauge sentiment a bit. I like knowing what the dumb money is thinking.

The biggest influence on my buys in the panic was Shiller. He wrote a key article saying "not saying it can't go lower, but this is historically a very good time to buy" based on long-term PE that hit four days (yes, four days) before the bottom. I wasn't that accurate with all my buys, but him, Bogle, Swensen, and a few others gave me confidence in my long-term view and allowed me to feel comfortable with my buys with dow in the 6s, 7s, and 8s.

I'm going long as of today. I've changed my mind. I think the economy is on the mend, Greece won't matter, and China is revving up again.

Anyone in with me?

In fact, I'm going triple-long. Mark the day: October 26, 2011. 6:18 pm.

You adding to your SSO with me, SWE?

Eddie, are you now committing to shorting the S&P because I'm going long?

Put your money where your mouth is, Eddie! Let us know what you're doing - BEFORE THE FACT, once.

What's your move TODAY, Eddie Wilson?

After the bell and before tomorrow morning's opening news, you are going triple long?

You remarked just a few days ago about the market's significant rise since earlier October, and wondered if things had really improved that much.

What changed?

huntersburg to the rescue. Busy reminding you how smart he is and how rational he is.

Stevejhx, I know that in addition to following stocks, that you also follow commodities. What is tomorrow's opening price for a cow at the Columbia County Stock Exchange (CCSE)?

By the way, anyone know how you can be "to the rescue" but also busy?

Nope. Own no commodities, never will.

Oh, ok, I know you always have that corn chart, thought you might also have the cow chart for Columbia County Cows. Thanks anyway.

Too cold in Columbia County for my taste.

so elsewhere and blow job, other than your bitchy attacks on steve and ridicule of his thoughts re markets/economy, you provide little rationale for an opposing POV--if steve's clearly explained distrust of current markets/economic conditions is so wrong and worthy of ridicule, please provide rationale to support the opposing POV

why do think leveraged long us stocks makes sense? why do you think commodities should keep the bid? what about steve's logic do you find faulty and why?

dont bother replyin hburg--you remain nothing but a truly pathetic troll--and BSExtender, knowing your portfolio is comprised of 3 individual stocks is all the telling needed from you

Eddie must've gone short today because I went long. Must be painful for him.

I still distrust the current markets, and I'm still long-term bearish because I think this is going to result in huge inflation and another bubble. Short- to medium-term, however, with Greece "resolved" and GDP okay (but not enough to affect unemployment) the market will probably be in a risk-on state through the end of the year.

From a technical perspective, I distrusted the spike up from the bottom because there was no follow-through on volume or reduced volatility, and it will go down in history as the shortest bear market ever (1 day). Today, though, we are likely to see heavy institutional buying, so the uptrend is confirmed on volume, and volatility is way down.

Again - it's the result of massive government intervention, which I don't like & don't trust. But no reason to fight the Fed (who's ready to print money again if need be) or Europe: they are IN LOVE with the euro, and seem intent on keeping it, and plan on guaranteeing everybody's credit cards for the time being.

All is peace and love.

Oh, and just FYI, Eddie: I went long, but I still have PLENTY of cash.

Suze Orman will love me, to be sure.

"I'm going long as of today. I've changed my mind. I think the economy is on the mend, Greece won't matter, and China is revving up again."

So, Steve finally admits he's wrong... after being 2000 points wrong on his bet the other way.

Nice!

I'm taking some profits today.

"so elsewhere and blow job, other than your bitchy attacks on steve and ridicule of his thoughts re markets/economy,"

Oh, wbottom, how backward you have it. Not only has steve been painfully wrong, but he started the personal callouts and attacks.

They're just funny when they come from such a loser...

"Steve finally admits he's wrong"

Did I ever admit that? Absolutely not. The first comment you quote was stated facetiously last night; my answer to WB is the truth.

What I thought 10 years ago or 5 years ago or 1 year ago is irrelevant. Things change, I am not static.

FYI your SSO just broke even for the year yesterday. Since you were double-long, you were 30% underwater just 3 weeks ago.

Seems like a lot of risk to take, if you ask me.

> Did I ever admit that? Absolutely not

Yes, we get that you will never intentionally admit your mistakes... you never have. You just pretend you never made them. You just lie. But, you've been yelling short with the dow jumping 2000 points, and then switch to shouts of long only AFTER... tough to have more egg on your face than after that. I'll take that as the closest thing we'll ever get from you..

> at I thought 10 years ago or 5 years ago or 1 year ago is irrelevant.

They are relevant when those thoughts lost you tons.
I know you like pretending you never lost money, but wishing don't make it so.

> Since you were double-long, you were 30% underwater just 3 weeks ago.
You, as usual, have no idea what you are talking about. They haven't been underwater since the dow broke 9k, genuis.

Now, I did buy some triple longs on the dip.... they're up 50% (well, 48.7%, before today's jump).

Thanks for noticing!

> Seems like a lot of risk to take, if you ask me.

Coming from the guy who was short on the last runup, and in cash during the really big initial runup... and buys in after the dow DOUBLES in a few years...

You are fing hillarious.

> why do think leveraged long us stocks makes sense?

wb, I don't anymore. I bought mine with the dow 6-7-8s, except for the rebuy right around 10/1 (which I did more to move quickly than anything else). I've been taking profits on all of 'em.

Bottoms, not sure why you keep trying to sniff Steve's shorts (both meanings!), but it's kinda cute I guess.

My rationale? It's pretty simple really - I ultimately believe in this country, so I don't think like Steve (that this "cannot end well" and will be "harrowing"). Like swe, I bought a good chunk of equities when they were much cheaper. I could definitely have timed it better (no buys when DOW was in the 6k range), but am pretty pleased nonetheless.

I just don't panic on the dips (in fact, I bought a little more during that flash-crash a little while back) because this isn't money I need to touch in the short term. Ultimately, I actually prefer things to go on sale, so I can invest more. For now though, I'm far more tempted to take some profits (haven't yet, but looking at things today, glad I held back) than to go long cash.

Sorry you find all of this "bitchy" and feel the need to whine about it.

"we get that you will never intentionally admit your mistakes... you never have."

Wrong. Read the thread.

"You just pretend you never made them. You just lie. But, you've been yelling short with the dow jumping 2000 points."

Nope. I told you where I shorted, and where I got out. Did I make a lot of money? Nope. Could I have done a better job? Yup.

The only one who claims that each and every one of his trades was PERFECT, is you. And the only one who claims that he did things AFTER the result of those things is known, is you: "Now, I did buy some triple longs on the dip"

Yup. Absolutely believe you. 100%. Because you told everybody what you were doing.

MFLiar.

> Wrong. Read the thread.

I did... in it you say... "Did I ever admit that? Absolutely not"

Once again, refusing to admit your mistakes, even when in black and white.

> Nope. I told you where I shorted

Yes, the day you said it, the dow was at 10,300.
And, yes, you've tried to change that story after the fact, but, hey, we're on to your lies.
And it is pretty clear how you loset your shirt on that.

> The only one who claims that each and every one of his trades was PERFECT, is you

Another lie from you to cover your other lies.

Sorry, Steve.

> Yup. Absolutely believe you. 100%. Because you told everybody what you were doing

Actually, I did genius... I'm on the record for when I made my SSO calls. And my profit taking calls at 12,500 and up.

Sorry, toots... its you who makes up stuff after the fact... and then refuse to give specifics when called on it.

Your avoidance of BSexposer is still a really funny one.

Yup, yup, yup, yup, yup.

Please. SSO ain't a "triple-long" - that one's as true as all the rest.

Because really, you NEED to get a job at Goldman Sachs - they require your trading skills, supernatural as they are.

Wbuttocks told me not to reply and called me something hurtful. Now I am sad. :(

> Please. SSO ain't a "triple-long" - that one's as true as all the rest.

Yes, you moron, but you are the only one who inferred it was. Another lie from you about me... (to add to your lies about yourself).

The triple longs I bought are the UPROs.

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPS!

(another steve swing and a miss)

As you should be.

"i think in a few months you'll see that if you sold yestersday... it would have been a good sale."

Brooks2, glad I waited a couple extra days. Just took some nice profits! Bring on the cheap stuff!

Yes, SWE, we believe you! You always announce what you did several weeks after you know what the answer result will be.

ROTFL.

Goldman is waiting for you.

Wtushy please take back what you said. I am feeling so sad and hurt now. :(

"Yes, SWE, we believe you! You always announce what you did several weeks after you know what the answer result will be."

Poor, poor Steve. No, that's you... you're describing yourself.

I call it when I do it...

You make it up after the fact. To cover up the fact that you are an awful, awful investor (unless you add 100% "by mistake" of course...)

LOL

So, Steve, did you actually go long today? That's quite a reversal, especially when the market shot up today like it did.

steve indicated he went long today 4 hours ago--he's got at least 15 points in the trade

elsewher, always the prudent trader in hindsight, enjoy to tell that he took prifts today several hours ago leaving lots on the table

blow job's logic for being leveraged long stocks in here is not a shock, given, well blow job---she likes stock because she "believes in this country"...perfect...atta think!!

elsewhere cites 4 or 5 pundits among the hordes, all of whom made bullish comments at much cheaper prices than here...so really his acumen is that he picks pundits well..in hindsight

as to my defense of steve, read this thread, steve is upfront about positions realtime, and explains in his own word what motivates him--elsehwere and blowjob atack and ridicule, provide nothing but alleged historical results, and nuttin to remotely intellectual to support their alleged after-the-fact position

i dont suffer bullshit well

logic??

Yes, bjw, I did, last night, though I'm still mostly in cash. I've been looking since the market correction began about what was likely to happen next. No clear pattern has emerged until today - the reversal from the bottom a few weeks ago was impressive, but volume was paltry. Volatility was too high to take a new position. Too much risk in the market to add any positions, either. However, IMHO most of the risk has just been taken out of the market, though I will say I am only long banks, because they were the ones that were battered the most, and they were the ones that have had almost all of their risk taken away. CDS prices are still high for banks, but I think they'll be coming down.

I think long is safe through year-end - danger next week is employment, which could go negative. But as of yesterday the S&P was flat on the year, and I think through year-end there will be a lot of profit seeking to recover the losses from May - September.

I'll evaluate adding more positions as things become clearer, but it seems to me that a retest of the highs earlier this year is entirely possible.

I don't think economically we're out of the woods by far, and I see massive inflation coming down the line, but the EC is now printing money and guaranteeing everything under the sun, which will make the trade risk-in, at least for the time.

"risk-in" " "risk on". OOPS!

I did make a good profit today, WB - and I do explain my rationale, and like some I say what I'm doing before I do it.

There are lots of pundits out there - I only subscribe to the Aden Sisters, and technically I only trust Kevin Marder. Most pundits are wrong more than I am - except Troll Wilson, who is always right, and really needs to be running a trading desk at Goldman, because they need somebody who can tell you what will happen last week.

Oh no! Wbuttocks doesn't suffer bullshit well. Everyone run and hide.

"i dont suffer bullshit well"

No wonder you can't stand yourself. I mean, SE barely makes your bs legible.

"steve indicated he went long today 4 hours ago"

Great - so much for that conviction that this was going to end oh-so-badly, and that this was all "way over his head." That's sticking to your guns! And wow, buying after a huge run-up like today - great timing!

"likes stock because she "believes in this country"...perfect...atta think!!"

Ignoring your persistent sexism (thinking that calling someone a "she" is funny/demeaning can only be pulled off by Bill Parcells - and you ain't in that league), you fail to mention why you think that's such terrible logic. It's simple, obviously, and maybe that's not mindblowing enough for you, but it's ultimately what you get when you boil down Buffett's oft-repeated advice (see his op-eds).

If you think this country's going in the tank, say so. Otherwise, I don't know how you can definitively argue against going long equities. Yeah, there are moments when you rebalance, etc., but short of writing the tomes Steve posts here (ad nauseum), I don't know why you'd need much more "logic" than that when thinking about long-term investments.

And to be honest, you haven't stated any positions (despite my asking you repeatedly) - you're just parroting Steve and sniffing his shorts.

"steve is upfront about positions realtime"

Not really - we have no idea what he's invested in, how much, etc. Not saying he has to, but for you to call him upfront is hilariously wrong. swe is spot-on about that.

"atack and ridicule, provide nothing but alleged historical results, and nuttin to remotely intellectual to support their alleged after-the-fact position"

Your spelling is atrocious, but to answer your non-question, so what? I'm not here to compare portfolios; if you think I'm lying, great. I don't gain anything from boasting on an anonymous internet message board - I come here to gauge sentiment and get a sense of others' strategies/ideas. Steve is indeed in way over his head, but always expresses extreme confidence, so he's an easy target. It happens.

"I think long is safe through year-end"

So you're back to short-term trades? Not a great way to make money.

Bjw - long response. Why so worried about the opinion of someone named after his pointy ass?

While we are at it, do you think he calls you she because of the nasty divorce or the court restrictions on him being alone in City parks?

"steve is upfront about positions realtime"

To avoid problems in the future, I posted the day and time of my trades, above. I don't know what else you want.

"So you're back to short-term trades?"

You misinterpret: I reevaluate my positions and strategy every day. If I can hold it for longer I will, and 2 months in a volatile market is not "short-term." When the market goes up or down 3% in a day, day after day, one hour can be long-term.

But I think it's calming down for a while.

"Not a great way to make money"

A lot better than long-term investing, as the markets are virtually unchanged in the last 11 years.

I don't day trade, and my account isn't set up for day trading. Though I know how, I don't trade in options, either, though that might someday change. I limit myself to individual stocks and ETFs: no mutual funds ever again, b/c that is what got me burned in 2008: they're not liquid enough, and I want to be able to set a stop loss.

"we have no idea what he's invested in, how much"

Long banks ETF. How much - that I won't say, but in the six figures, though I am still mostly in cash.

"Steve is indeed in way over his head...."

To each his own opinion, but if I were, I wouldn't make as much money as I do. Unlike some here, I do not claim to make money on every trade, and some trades I make are just horrible and getting out of them is horrible and painful, but the key is to admit what you're doing wrong, learn from it, and move on, and not to try to predict what will happen yesterday.

You have the rationale why I made the trade that I did today - I'm about to go to a finance class at NYU and defend it, too, in front of a hedge fund manager. Though I might be proved wrong in the end, I had very specific reasons for making the trade that I did today, and for not making any other.

In fact, I was up watching the European markets at 5 am EST, just to make sure I was right.

> "steve is upfront about positions realtime"

nope... months later, he'll say he never had it... or "i sold it and rebought it" or some other made up nonsense. He is a flar out liar.

> "Steve is indeed in way over his head...."

Well, we've known that for a long time...

"Great - so much for that conviction that this was going to end oh-so-badly, and that this was all "way over his head." That's sticking to your guns! And wow, buying after a huge run-up like today - great timing!"

Bingo...

"elsewhere cites 4 or 5 pundits among the hordes, all of whom made bullish comments at much cheaper prices than here...so really his acumen is that he picks pundits well..in hindsight"

wbottom, you are incorrect once again... there is a post right here on this board where I pointed out the Shiller piece and the fact that I was buying... with dow under 7k.

The calls I reference are ones I made in real time on the board...

Where is Wbuttocks to support Steve (who seems to defend himself just fine)? Is he visiting his "girlfriend in Brooklyn?"

I also like how steve is screaming long, but making sure he keeps saying he has lots of cash.

Why... because he'll say he called it right either way...

Classic steve. If only he spent as much time learning how to invest correctly as he did trying to cover up his stupid mistakes.

"I don't know what else you want."

I don't really want anything - Bottoms is the one kvetching here. Yes, you posted day and time, but those deets aren't enough to really measure your performance. I do understand your not wanting to post that though.

"You misinterpret: I reevaluate my positions and strategy every day."

Every day? Oof, that's a lot of work. And sounds like day-trading to me (if you do all the work, but don't transact every time, not that much of a difference in my book).

"2 months in a volatile market is not "short-term.""

I disagree quite a bit. You pay a lot of transaction fees and taxes if you keep trading that often. Not good.

"When the market goes up or down 3% in a day, day after day, one hour can be long-term."

That is hilarious. I couldn't disagree more. Volatility = time?

"A lot better than long-term investing, as the markets are virtually unchanged in the last 11 years."

Cherry-pick much? Poor effort, Steve.

"Long banks ETF. How much - that I won't say, but in the six figures, though I am still mostly in cash."

Ok, finally some interesting info. So you dumped hundreds of thousands on the banks, even after all your doom-and-gloom? And you have millions in the bank left over then? Makes me wonder why you're moving to Florida?

"To each his own opinion, but if I were, I wouldn't make as much money as I do."

I was just quoting you.

"In fact, I was up watching the European markets at 5 am EST, just to make sure I was right."

Like I said, that's a lot of work.

> I don't really want anything - Bottoms is the one kvetching here.

Not to mention Steve started the name calling... calling bjw and I both out by name.

> Every day? Oof, that's a lot of work. And sounds like day-trading to me (if you do all the work, but
> don't transact every time, not that much of a difference in my book).

Talk about doublespeak...

> "A lot better than long-term investing, as the markets are virtually unchanged in the last 11 years."

Unchanged would be a lot better than Steve's investment performance.

"To each his own opinion, but if I were, I wouldn't make as much money as I do."

You would have lost even more than you already have? Impressive.

"wbottom, you are incorrect once again... there is a post right here on this board where I pointed out the Shiller piece and the fact that I was buying... with dow under 7k."

This is true - I remember you mentioning it more than once. Don't mind Bottoms - he just enjoys bitching and desperately wants a date with Steve.

"I also like how steve is screaming long, but making sure he keeps saying he has lots of cash.
Why... because he'll say he called it right either way..."

Good point - what a hedge by Esteban!

So, Steve yells short, Dow jumps 2000 points.... and then yells buy. If we go with previous track record, that's a pretty strong signal to sell, no?

I took some profits, but now he's got me worried...

;-)

Agreed - I took some profits yesterday as well. Not really planning on taking more this time around, but now I'm thinking twice.

swe, have you read this? http://seekingalpha.com/article/286027-stay-away-from-leveraged-etfs
I've never invested in leveraged ETFs, so curious what your thoughts are.

Yeah, they definitely *do not* track long term, not only for the transaction costs, but because of the daily math issue. Granted, half the article is about how you can lose money quick, which is sort of the point. And you don't stay in these if you think things aren't moving.

I use 'em as a way to move quick, and to not tie up cash. I only went into SSOs after the market tanked. And I still had several times as much in SPYs... I think of them as a little "icing". On the jumps, I sell some out.. I actually have taken out everything I put it (only profits still in there).

The triple longs were only to take advantage of that jump down, and I didn't pick up that many... sold half of 'em at 50% gain. The rest may go soon... I'm not a pig.

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