Article: New York Exceptionalism

"In my opinion, we've already come off the bottom," declares Barbara Corcoran, founder of the Corcoran Group and commentator for the Tooday show. She says newcomers are still POURING IN, especially from China and Brazil....

HAHAHAHA!

"Nearly everyone had the same conclusion: This is no crash." Correct. Thank you, Uncle Bernanke. Couldn't have done it without you. Now, QE3, please.

omg lol they really r going down the list of bric countries. funny. it's a very short list! only india is left and they prefer london.

Exactly my thought about the BRIC theme. As I read, I thought - Jesus, this sounds so familiar. Oh yes, when I when I worked at we helped about 20 major companies outsource their R&D and manufacturing to these places. Soon they will add Turkey to the list. When I went on maternity leave we had already stated using the BRIC-T instead of just BRIC.

I don't know whether I feel more sad or scared.

Bearish comments have sounded rather salacious with buyers who probably could not afford a place before thinking they'll scoop up at 50% off and live the life of Riley. I agree with Noah, the extreme bearish case has not materialized and most likely off the table for the foreseeable future.

the data is the data.
the conclusion is that no significant crash is immenent.
the prediction is a very slow escalation in price, one could also conclude a very slow degradation in price.
same shit, different day.
your a seller...prices on the way up
your a buyer...prices on the way down
your trying to sell to buy...bipolar

Rich Chinese and Indians coming to prop up the market?

dream on

The fact is, there are just as many delusional buyers out there who think that the world is coming to an end and that Manhattan real estate prices are about to crash as there are delusional sellers who think that things are great and that Manhattan real estate is just as strong as it ever was. The truth, of course, is in the middle. The Manhattan market is stable right now - not crashing, not appreciating like mad. Deals get done when realistic buyers meet realistic sellers. Delusional buyers will just sit on the sidelines making dumb comments and delusional sellers will have their apartments sit around for months or years on end.

Chinese, yes.
Indians, no.

it is very fine to be smarmy and say things like lucille does here "omg lol they really r going down the list of bric countries. funny. it's a very short list! only india is left and they prefer london" or steve "In my opinion, we've already come off the bottom," declares Barbara Corcoran, founder of the Corcoran Group and commentator for the Tooday show. She says newcomers are still POURING IN, especially from China and Brazil....

HAHAHAHA"

But where or where are the massive reductions in selling prices?

huntersburg
about 1 hour ago
stop ignoring this person
report abuse Chinese, yes.
Indians, no.

buddhist or hindu, what does it matter. they've kept west67's classic 7 on CPW out of his dirty mitts for a couple of years now. if there was ever an example of striking when the iron is hot....but maybe inonada can help him negotiate a 4 year lease with riders for built-in decreases in rent and subsidies for degradation of the property over the life of the lease. oh, and a hooker to give him head on national holidays.

I think we're looking at a slow degradation in price, with a few up-ticks along the way down. It's just like the early '90s.

We won't know we're past the bottom until we're already way up into the next bubble . . .

hey! i wasn't being smarmy! the omglol'ing was in reference to this thread about chinese buyers. so maybe lame and obnoxious in laughing at my own jokes, but not smarmy. why do you keep trying to hurt my feelings jim? want to talk about it?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27828-as-investors-chinese-turn-to-new-york

and barbara corcoran is a rock star. she's successful at everything she does and she's got like 30 kids.

I put Manhattan up there with places like London, Paris, Hong Kong Central where people want to live.

am I reading the right article? bullish you right?
>>>Job growth has been weak, and there are a lot of rumors about Wall Street layoffs. “Long-term volatility will paralyze a lot of buyers,” predicts StreetEasy research director Sofia Song. You can see that in the popularity of rentals: StreetEasy’s traffic usually peaks in spring, says Song, but this year, for the first time, August has been the busiest month, “and that was due to the rental traffic

the Fed is keeping rates down until 2013, analyst and appraiser Jonathan Miller thinks “the benefit has played out.” If you were waiting for a low rate, you got one. Getting a mortgage is no easier, adds Calanog: “Banks are still reticent.” And though more banks are writing jumbo mortgages, the rules will change in October: Jumbos will start at $625,500 instead of the current $729,750. That means buyers who want to stay under the jumbo cap (where interest rates are lower) will have to come up with the difference—always a challenge

There might be so rough patches but I'm not worried about Manhattan. I hear can understand the pessimmism about NY prices, but I think Manhattan and perhaps DC have their own dynamics that set them apart. I hate paying insane prices for stuff, but then I wonder if I'm missing the boat especially when I see people paying $4,000 for a freaking handbag.

>>>especially when I see people paying $4,000 for a freaking handbag

I see this in Las Vegas and Florida too.. great indicator!

>>>>But where or where are the massive reductions in selling prices?

are you ignoring this thread?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5465-chasing-the-market-down-our-favorite-price-choppers?last_page=true

LOL! about the Las Vegas and Florida. In Florida, there was sooo much land that they can build forever and ever.

Manhattan real estate is different because:
- they're not making any more land
- everyone wants to live here
- Brazilians, Russians and Chinese etc are stepping in to support the market
- strict coop boards have prevented over-leveraging
- there is little or no foreclosure activity in prime manhattan
- there is still lots of pent-up demand from buyers wanting to trade up
- interest rates are at historic lows
- jumbo lenders are re-entering the market
- quality of life has changed greatly since prior busts, eg mid-1990s
- NYC economy is more diversified and thus less reliant on Wall Street to support prices
- most people will always prefer to own despite high price/income or price/rent ratios
- NYC real estate is always a great long-term investment

Feel free to add to the list and cut and paste this into any and all future threads as to why Manhattan (and especially the WEST VILLAGE dammit!) is different. ;-)

- because technology, once thought to make actual geo-location less important, is actually having the OPPOSITE effect...

take Grindr application for iPhone...

..hottie #1 .. 37 feet away
..hottie #2 .. 12 feet away
..hottie #3 .. 77 feet away
..hottie #4 .. 114 feet away
..hottie #5 .. 8 feet away

whereas in LA, "I'm on the west side bro, you're too far to drive to, plus my GF will be be back by then."

mmmmm, convenience..

- Brazilians, Russians and Chinese etc are stepping in to support the market?
that's what they used to say about the Europeans. who will it be next? and they can not buy co-ops!
-they're not making any more land
there are plenty of vacant lots with stalled construction--
-strict coop boards have prevented over-leveraging
define over levering - some only allow 20% down and allow ios- Prices hav declines 20% from peak
so those who bot at the peak are under water and won't be able to refinance (especially into a conforming loan)
-interest rates are at historic lows
and people are still having difficult time getting financing and Also, FNMA and FReddie mac staring to enforce their guidlines for condos and coops-- that they have been neglecting for years
http://www.habitatmag.com/Publication-Content/2011-June/Featured-Articles/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-co-op-condo-financing-guidelines
-- there is still lots of pent-up demand from buyers wanting to trade up
again- financing is too difficult
- there is little or no foreclosure activity in prime manhattan
not yet
-- quality of life has changed greatly since prior busts, eg mid-1990s
crime is increasing
then why is Mayor BBERG mentioning their could be riots
http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpps/news/nyc-mayor-bloomberg-warns-high-unemployment-could-spark-rioting-dpgonc-20110916-to-_15059858

--NYC economy is more diversified and thus less reliant on Wall Street to support prices
really? really?
-- most people will always prefer to own despite high price/income or price/rent ratios
then why do so many people rent?
- jumbo lenders are re-entering the market
really?? they better, the conforming limit is going down from $725 to $629for high MSA's and
people are still having a difficult time getting financing. Refinancing cost's are exhorbitant- Krammer of CNBC even admitted today on CNBC
--NYC economy is more diversified and thus less reliant on Wall Street to support prices
but Wall street jobs are the higher earners and that is directly related to RE prices
- NYC real estate is always a great long-term investment
that depends when you buy-- in the long term we will all be dead!

New York City RE has not held up nearly as well as Manhattan. So if you pick out just one part of the City, let alone ignore the metro area, then yes. And similar statements can accurately be made about "prime" West-side LA and Orange Counties (in fact Newport Beach has done even BETTER than Manhattan, never dipping at all from the peak), Silicon Valley/San Mateo County (especially west of El Camino) and SF. And "prime" Boston. And "prime" DC.

In short, these are all areas where people (still) have money. Some of the above sub-areas have done better than Manhattan.

I am not sure what the point of this is, exactly.

Brooks, you're clearly not getting it.... Manhattan is just different. Barbara Corcoran said it so it has to be true. In fact, I'll add that to the list:

- Because Barbara Corcoran said so.

- they're not making any more land
- everyone wants to live here
- Brazilians, Russians and Chinese etc are stepping in to support the market
- strict coop boards have prevented over-leveraging
- there is little or no foreclosure activity in prime manhattan
- there is still lots of pent-up demand from buyers wanting to trade up
- interest rates are at historic lows
- jumbo lenders are re-entering the market
- quality of life has changed greatly since prior busts, eg mid-1990s
- NYC economy is more diversified and thus less reliant on Wall Street to support prices
- most people will always prefer to own despite high price/income or price/rent ratios
- NYC real estate is always a great long-term investment
- Barbara Corcoran said so
- and the number one reason why Manhattan is different - OUR banks are too big to fail!

Barbara?
You mean the good witch from the wizard of oz?
I remember her.
She's the one that sent that poor farm girl of that fools errand almost getting her killed when she could have just given her the shoe directions from the begining and released her from the elaborate illusion.
Well, that's how you sell re in Kansas after a tornado....lots of illusionary bullshit.
I always wondered why brokers were blond.

>>- Because Barbara Corcoran said so.

And, My Mother told me the tooth fairy was real. so it must true.

West34... sounds like you will follow the rest of the heard off the cliff.

Be a shepherd not a lamb.

>>- and the number one reason why Manhattan is different - OUR banks are too big to fail!

But big big enough to lay people off and not give bonus's.

- ie BoA, Soc Gen, BnP, Credit Ag, Goldman Sachs( gs stock ps ~$102 from a $240 high), UBS, MS, Jeffries..have you noticed the earnings.
come on West34th get a clue!

herd-- sorry

Hey Brooks, do you frequently miss the joke in real life?

Jittery investors, wary banks, the struggling economy and turbulent financial markets are stalling a two-year rebound in the U.S. commercial real-estate industry.

Across the country, companies that were looking for large chunks of office space have delayed those plans as uncertainty has risen. Among those companies that have changed or are re-evaluating plans areUBS AG, Morgan Stanley and the Quidsi unit of Amazon.com Inc., all of which were looking in New York City

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903374004576582972775198788.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

West34, thanks for the compilation of greatest hits by delusional posters who want to believe this time is different.