Will the EU let Greece fail?

There isn't any plausible scenario with a very good outcome. Take it from Nouriel. http://www.emergingmarkets.org/Article/2906430/Interview-with-Nouriel-Roubini.html

Yes, take it from the man who puts small plastic vaginas on his wall.
Take it from the playboy who bought a shag pad, but suggests no one else buy real estate.
Take it from the guy whose bearishness was at its height in March 2009 instead of seeing opportunity.

Take it from apt23 who is trying to avoid taxes here in NYC.

Apt23
Some pretty scary stuff.
I see the light at the end of the tunnel and I do believe it's a fright train heading right for us.

i think the EU should make Greece take its medicine. If Greece doesn't want help, then the EU should let Greece fail after maker sure that Italy, Spain and Portugal have enuff liquidity to ride out the storm.

Craz,
Are you going to deny Dr Doom his shagadelic pussy trap bad boy bat cave?

He's not just doing hot babes for himself. He's banging chicks like a drum for all the economists out there who never thought being an economist could EVER get you laid. For every last one of those pocket protecter, bespectacled, Texas instrument loving, dermatologically challenged poor bastards.
This ones for you!

They probably should. Greece is just not that significant on its own, after-all population barely breaks 11,000,000 with a GNP less than either South Africa or Poland. Besides failing means the Greeks reduce debt and probably leave the Euro which means they can depreciate the currency, boost exports and increase tourism, instead of allocating some ridiculous percentage of the economy toward servicing an unmanageable debt just to save a few French Banks, but Geithner seems to be convincing the Europeans that recent stock market action should have them very worried, and it looks like they're starting to blink. And everyone realizes that its not really Greece but Italy that they need to worry about which is really what they're talking about. Does anyone think that a Greece's economy is really that significant to impact the financial markets?

Greece should say, screw the EU, and just default. The pain will be harsh, but they will be better for it in the long run. Its not Greece on its own that this the concern, Italy, Portugal, Spain, the whole EU is on the verge of breakup. Greece is just 1 domino..crazy thing is, if markets tumble because of whatever happens, it will be the buy of a lifetime

Greece will default - soon. Current goal is not to save Greece, but to save undercapitalized French and German banks that own Greek debt. Yet again it is an example of the public sector bailing out the private sector: the EU and ECB provide loans so that Greece can - PAY OFF ITS LOANS!

Imagine the banks lining up to lend YOU money to pay off your debts....

Let me be a little contrarian: Greece defaulted in the '30s, right? it seems like if you go back to the historical record, that would be the behavior one would predict, so I don't understand why everyone is playing such a guessing game now. Seems more to the point that Greece NOT defaulting should be a news story.

Credit Default swaps are already pricing in 100% probability of default

Greece will default it is only a question of how it will default. The EU banks are at serious risk because they didn't have to capitalize if they took on sovereign debt -- it would not register in the stress tests. So they loaded up just as the US banks loaded up on subprime cause that was where the money was. Everyone is kicking the can down the road to give the banks time to raise capital. But the time is up. Yes, Noah, the domino effect is real. No one knows where the cross collateral problems are but you can probably bet that there is an AIG out there somewhere. And as soon as Greece defaults, the bond vultures will descend on Italy and Spain until their risk rockets. The only thing to keep the vultures at bay is a stake thru their hearts and enough capital to protect the weakest EU links. The EFSF, the ECB, the IMF --which of course means Germany-- have to put up some very serious dough. They need to find the political will to get it done.

The vultures are the truth tellers, simply pointing out that the emperor wears no clothes. The banks are vulnerable simply because they invested poorly.

I don't think the meetings this weekend hold the answer that the markets are looking for. Yet, if the markets go down significantly tomorrow, the markets will end up dictating a quicker resolution. It will be interesting to watch. We are certainly experiencing interesting times. It seems like a perfect Catch 22. For Greece to stay in EU, significant haircuts must be taken on the debt. But the banks may not survive if they accept the necessary losses.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/26/business/global/investors-ask-if-anything-can-save-greece-from-default.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp

“Instead of cutting public sector wages and cutting spending, Greece should demand much larger haircuts on the debts that they have,” said Peter Boone, a banking and finance expert at the London School of Economics. “The current deal does not reduce the debt burden enough to make much difference.”

But the chairman of the group that drew up the terms of the debt swap said any change was unlikely.

“It is not feasible to reopen the agreement and, given the benefits to Greece, we should focus now on its timely and resolute implementation,” said Josef Ackermann, the outgoing chief executive of Deutsche Bank and chairman of the I.I.F., which represented the banks.

If the banks can be convinced to go back to the bargaining table, the challenge is ensuring that they can handle not the 21 percent loss they have been preparing for, but a much larger one.

By the numbers alone, this should be affordable. French and German banks have the largest exposures to Greek debt, totaling about $100 billion.

But with major French banks like Société Générale and BNP Paribas rapidly losing the trust of their investors and lenders, their ability to sustain a larger loss is in doubt.

For German banks, the situation is hardly any better. According to Morgan Stanley, their most recent core ratio of capital to assets is just 8.3 percent, compared to 8.2 percent for Greece. For France, the ratio is 9.2 percent.

Analysts and regulators believe that a capital ratio of at least 10 percent is needed to provide a sufficient buffer to absorb losses.

Well, big surprise, the banks just voted in their own self interest. Just what the world needs more of ---Intractable Impasse. Looks like Americans don't have a monopoly on intransigence. Lord help us.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44661566

LOL, this has been going on for hundreds of years. I suspect the banks will win again, but it is a shame. It would be far better if stock holders realize they bear first loss. Here's a novel idea, instead of tax payers getting hit, recapitalize the banks by converting debt holders and making them equity holders.

PPL under water in NYC should just default.

Who are THEY to stop paying the $10K/month mortgage for 580days and not have ANY FKING consequences... who are they?

Poodle walking, burkin bag hoarding, $50 nail polishing baffoons... just default. You know the MKT ain't coming back.

FLMAOzzzzzzz....

Yes let us bail out the 99% of NYCers that suckle on the gold, equity, RE and other assorted ponzi assets.. but buttfk the GREEKS!

PART of lending is CREDIT RISK.

PART of CAPITALISM is bankruptcy.

PART of being AMERICAN is to LIVE WAY WAY WAY beyond our means BC 99.99% of AMERICANS can't balance their budget and look at their underwater POS RE as a "money" machine.

FKING hypocrites....

A New Yorker underwater who can't meet the obligation "SHOULD DEFAULT", but bear the consequences.

BY your math RIVERSIDER.. us youngins should declare SS backrupt...flmaoz... you got money for cream cheese... FLMAOZzzzz

THE TRUTH teller.... RE BORKERS are dead in the water... sorry... income will continue a slow bleed w/ NYC RE.

RIVERSIDER... the Social Security system expected you to die 20 yrs ago... THE TRUTH is you've taken more than you put in... almost like GREECE...

w67: Last week the Pharmaceutical companies cut off shipments of drugs and supplies to the Greek hospitals because they can't pay their bills. The Greek people won't stand for much more cause if this deal does go through -- just to appease the banks--- there will be a lot more unemployment. The unemployment in Greece is nearing levels that lead to Revolution. Seems like the whole system is rigged for the wealthy institutions and governments to take whatever remedies necessary to support the banks at all costs.

Greece should default, stiff the bond holders and devalue their currency in an effort to save their populace. The world should face up to the problem that the banks are insolvent. The sooner that happens, the sooner the remedy.

w67, gave up 5/7 of the cream cheese. Unfortunately fruit costs more.

apt23... I have a very dear greek friend, S.M., who wholeheartedly agrees with you. Greece should default.

To marry someone and open a joint bank account w/o looking at her/his spending habits... now who's fault is that?

Now it seems to me, the real suffering comes from the old and helpless who will "feel" the effect of this much more so than the politicians and "elite" who wanted to join the EU.

And thank you Goldman SACHS for making sure NO-ONE recorded the mortgages until it WAS WAY WAY TOO LATE.

If I EVER want to FK my investors, I'm going GOLDMAN ALL THE WAY.

Have a great Weekend APT23. My wife and daughter are making banana nut cake for me :)

Maybe you should consider stall twinkies.

i know I know.. hunterburg... ooohh ohhhh aahh ahh....

and yes, I am jacked. Though I rarely take off my clothes. I'm not the tank top wearing gym bunny. I'm the serious sweatshirt, 45 min... ALL BUSINESS gym dude. IF you do bicep curls on the squat rack... here's a tip... get the fk out bf I rip you another azzhole.

Riversider.... good on you for eating healthier.... eat bananas (substitution effect => real inflation lower. That ought to make your SS chks go a little further) ... the BEST fruit in the world.

no, cherries, blueberries, strawberries an blackberries. Absolutely do not like bananas.

w67thstreet likes bananas.
Apes like bananas.

>and yes, I am jacked. Though I rarely take off my clothes. I'm not the tank top wearing gym bunny. I'm the serious sweatshirt, 45 min... ALL BUSINESS gym dude. IF you do bicep curls on the squat rack... here's a tip... get the fk out bf I rip you another azzhole.

Can someone please call the Primatologist to translate this for me?

It's over for Greece. It is insolvent. The battle is on to save Italy and Spain which really are too big to fail. Greece will default and the only question is if it will be an orderly default or an unmanaged one which would have more severe fall out.

Germany will not save Greece. That much is crystal clear.

On some islands they throw women off cliffs for eating bananas.