Kyle Bass on recession

yup

The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Directly on Manhattan condos and co-ops.

Of course, Kyle Bass's point of view demands its own independent thread because there are no other threads about a recession or about real estate prices.

why just high end? if the sky falls wouldn't it effect all RE?

The sky falls downward.

I wonder what Thanksgiving is like in Apt. 23?

That is, when the police aren't being called about the husband.

http://www.hulu.com/watch/110971/saturday-night-live-debbie-downer-thanksgiving-dinner

Oh look, here's an expert who disagrees with Kyle Bass?
Frank Holmes disagrees with Kyle Bass. Who do you agree with, some person you don't know named Kyle or Lance, or some person you don't know named Frank?
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/frank-holmes-not-2008-over-again-not-even-161740187.html?

or a guy named Henry.... didn't a lot of people believe him once?

The Fonz? No, no one took him seriously.

Yes Brooks, if a EU collapse does come to pass, it will affect all RE but after Lehman Bros, there was wholesale divestiture of high end apts -- and rather early in the game they were sold for 20. 30, even 50% off. The wealthy seem to be the first rats off the sinking ship and they seem to let go of the loss right away. After that, the rest of us stubbornly hold on to the nest egg until we are forced to pry our cold fingers away from our big, lifetime investments in our apts, hopefully at only a small loss. That is why you see so many mid-range apts for sale at unrealistic prices. A NYC multi million dollar apt is often only one investment of many for the very wealthy.

From Michael Lewis' new book Boomerang about Kyle Bass:

Lewis; Pay Close Attention to Kyle Bass!

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Hayman Capital Mgmt., is featured prominently in the first chapter of "Boomerang" He is one of a handful of folks who made millions correctly betting against the sub prime market, and is now betting on the collapse of entire European countries.

"Bass was so early in the trade convinced that Europe would come unglued and from here on, he said it reads like fiction, and we're heading towards a day of reckoning."

"Then the financial world began to change again - and very much as Kyle Bass had imagined it might. Entire countries started to go bust. What appeared at first to be a story chiefly about Wall Street became a story that involved every country that came into meaningful contact with Wall Street….Once again a hedge fund manager had been more or less right and the world had been more or less wrong."

maybe Greece defaults, but I think the other countries and banks have had enuff time to get their eggs in order

Tomas Tranströmer of Sweden Wins Nobel Prize in Literature

STOCKHOLM (AP) — The Swedish Academy says Swedish poet Tomas Tranströmer has won the 2011 Nobel Prize in literature.

The academy said it awarded the 80-year-old poet “because, through his condensed, translucent images, he gives us fresh access to reality.”

So RE brokers won't become investment bankers like the fisherman in Iceland?

whew..

but wasn't that supposed to happen in the late 80s when a journalist became an investment banker at Solomon Brothers?

"maybe Greece defaults"

Maybe? No way it won't - regardless of what has to change there, it all can't change at once. When it defaults, banks will have to write down the debt. When that happens, even banks that don't own the debt will be in trouble, b/c of counterparty risk. It starts all over again.

This little QEII Blip was just that - a blip. Plenty more to go....

Lehman

Why do banks have to write down Greece's debt when they didn't have to write down their losses in the real estate debacle? Can't they just keep them on their books and ignore it?