"Let’s imagine that someone from the year 1970 miraculously traveled forward in time to today. You could show her one of the iPhones that Steve Jobs helped create, and she’d be thunderstruck. The time traveler would be vibrating with excitement. She’d want to know what other technological marvels had been invented in the past 41 years. She’d ask about space colonies on Mars, flying cars, superfast... [more]
"Let’s imagine that someone from the year 1970 miraculously traveled forward in time to today. You could show her one of the iPhones that Steve Jobs helped create, and she’d be thunderstruck.
The time traveler would be vibrating with excitement. She’d want to know what other technological marvels had been invented in the past 41 years. She’d ask about space colonies on Mars, flying cars, superfast nuclear-powered airplanes, artificial organs. She’d want to know how doctors ended up curing cancer and senility.
You’d have to bring her down gently. We don’t have any of those things. Airplanes are pretty much the same now as they were then; so are cars, energy sources, appliances, houses and neighborhoods.
As Thiel points out, we travel at the same speeds as we did a half-century ago, whether on the ground or in the air. We rely on the same basic energy sources. Warren Buffett made a $44 billion investment in 2009. It was in a railroad that carries coal."
BINGO; Then the author goes on to provide 3 erroneous explanations of why innovation hasn't occurred;
"First, the double hump nature of the learning curve." It's too hard, boo-hoo. No.
"Second, there has been a loss of utopian élan." We're not in the mood, apparently. No!
"Third, there is no essential culture clash". We only did it to rebel against someone else. No. Plus this seems to conflict with the second erroneous reason.
The reason there is no innovation is because entrepreneurs and corporations have come under the spell of Wall Street and the "what have you done THIS QUARTER?" view. Any mistakes or hiccups in R&D are punished by beating the bosses' pocket book. Bosses don't like that, it makes them look bad down at the country club (gym? charity ball? Aspen?) In the old days, the stock price was a minor thing, something that the accountants worried about, now there's a ticker in the company cafeteria. Welcome to a world that restarts every 3 months.
When was the last time anything was invented in 3 months?
Full Article; http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/opinion/brooks-where-are-the-jobs.html?src=me&ref=general[less]
Response by huntersburg
about 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Nice theory, but if Gates and Buffett have controlling interests in their companies so that quarterly public reactions are irrelevant, and if you have huge private companies like Koch Industries, why aren't they the exception to Theil?
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Response by NYCMatt
about 14 years ago
Posts: 7523
Member since: May 2009
"Airplanes are pretty much the same now as they were then"
In many cases, they're the EXACT same planes from 1970.
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Response by huntersburg
about 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
No they aren't.
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Response by Socialist
about 14 years ago
Posts: 2261
Member since: Feb 2010
There arent' any planes from the 70s still flying in commercial service. They might be the same models (ie: 747, A320, etc.) but they are not exactly the same planes.
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Response by huntersburg
about 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
I think maybe Matt is talking about some of the planes on Air Pittsburg that are from 1970 - the 747s that fly from Harrisburg to Pittsburg.
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Response by Brooks2
about 14 years ago
Posts: 2970
Member since: Aug 2011
In the old days, the stock price was a minor thing, something that the accountants worried about,-
yea.. no one cared about making money in 1970.
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Response by Brooks2
about 14 years ago
Posts: 2970
Member since: Aug 2011
so if we don't tale LSD we will become eloi like?
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Response by AvUWS
about 14 years ago
Posts: 839
Member since: Mar 2008
This is such crap. The cars are the same? Really?
Airbags, CD players, 300 HP engines that get 30+ MPG, ABS, limited slip differentials, 4-wheel driver control systems, heated (and cooled) seats, hybrids, all in your affordable family car today. This would have been better than the super cars of 1970. Heck, even intermittent wipers weren't available then. And this car will last a good 150-200,000 miles instead of 50,000.
Airplanes? Aside from being 30-50% more efficient the price is about 1/5 of what it was back then. So progress hasbeen made. THe same plane is also much less likely to crash.
So much of what is written by journalists just isn't so.
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Response by huntersburg
about 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Oddly, the Concorde made its first flight before 1970. Today we don't have that speed for commercial travel, and while it takes longer to get from JFK to LA or SanFran because of air or airport traffic, it takes less time to get to Europe and to Asia because of the better reliability of aircraft engines meaning that more efficient, and less close to land routes can be taken.
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Response by malthus
about 14 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009
Apple did not invent the mobile phone. Motorola produced the first one while Jobs was in high school. They did not invent the smartphone. That was Nokia, a 100+ year old company from Finland. They did not invent the internet. That was initiated by those counterculture heroes at Darpa. Brooks does not even understand what Jobs actual contribution has been.
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Response by AvUWS
about 14 years ago
Posts: 839
Member since: Mar 2008
Jobs didn't even invent the use of the fingers to flip the pictures or zoom in and out. If he had he would never have let other devices use this technique.
His genius was in recognizing the pieces and putting them together, and not just in a way that worked, but in a way that delighted.
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Response by huntersburg
about 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
>His genius was in recognizing the pieces and putting them together, and not just in a way that worked, but in a way that delighted.
The genius is that an iPad can be used intuitively and productively by everyone from an elderly idiot invalid like columbiacounty to a 4 year old child (or someone with an equivalent IQ), to an ape like w67thstreet, to actual smart, sophisticated productive people.
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Response by Socialist
about 14 years ago
Posts: 2261
Member since: Feb 2010
The technology currently exists to manufacture commercial airplanes that go more than twice the speed of the Concorde. But nobody wants to build such a plane.
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Response by Riversider
about 14 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
Because fuel economy is more important??????
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Response by huntersburg
about 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
>Because fuel economy is more important??????
Noise issues.
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Response by falcogold1
about 14 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
I would take the time traveler on a 747. I would explain that the plane was the same model but, much newer.
The flight attendent, same one from 1970. (explains the aluminum walker, also no tech advance)
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Response by falcogold1
about 14 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
what about inovations in industries such as porn?
any idea what pron looked like in 1970?
still pictures printed on paper and stapled together to make a thing called a magazine.
(I only read them for the articles, that lustful Jimmy Carter)
I don't even want to mention the abilities of an i-pad when it comes to this realm.
what about elected representation?
today we have republican cult members, Afro-American pizza tycons, womanizing known cheaters, texan religious fanatics and, Ron Paul all trying to gain our attention for the presidential nomination.
We've come a long way baby!
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Nice theory, but if Gates and Buffett have controlling interests in their companies so that quarterly public reactions are irrelevant, and if you have huge private companies like Koch Industries, why aren't they the exception to Theil?
"Airplanes are pretty much the same now as they were then"
In many cases, they're the EXACT same planes from 1970.
No they aren't.
There arent' any planes from the 70s still flying in commercial service. They might be the same models (ie: 747, A320, etc.) but they are not exactly the same planes.
I think maybe Matt is talking about some of the planes on Air Pittsburg that are from 1970 - the 747s that fly from Harrisburg to Pittsburg.
In the old days, the stock price was a minor thing, something that the accountants worried about,-
yea.. no one cared about making money in 1970.
so if we don't tale LSD we will become eloi like?
This is such crap. The cars are the same? Really?
Airbags, CD players, 300 HP engines that get 30+ MPG, ABS, limited slip differentials, 4-wheel driver control systems, heated (and cooled) seats, hybrids, all in your affordable family car today. This would have been better than the super cars of 1970. Heck, even intermittent wipers weren't available then. And this car will last a good 150-200,000 miles instead of 50,000.
Airplanes? Aside from being 30-50% more efficient the price is about 1/5 of what it was back then. So progress hasbeen made. THe same plane is also much less likely to crash.
So much of what is written by journalists just isn't so.
Oddly, the Concorde made its first flight before 1970. Today we don't have that speed for commercial travel, and while it takes longer to get from JFK to LA or SanFran because of air or airport traffic, it takes less time to get to Europe and to Asia because of the better reliability of aircraft engines meaning that more efficient, and less close to land routes can be taken.
Apple did not invent the mobile phone. Motorola produced the first one while Jobs was in high school. They did not invent the smartphone. That was Nokia, a 100+ year old company from Finland. They did not invent the internet. That was initiated by those counterculture heroes at Darpa. Brooks does not even understand what Jobs actual contribution has been.
Jobs didn't even invent the use of the fingers to flip the pictures or zoom in and out. If he had he would never have let other devices use this technique.
His genius was in recognizing the pieces and putting them together, and not just in a way that worked, but in a way that delighted.
>His genius was in recognizing the pieces and putting them together, and not just in a way that worked, but in a way that delighted.
The genius is that an iPad can be used intuitively and productively by everyone from an elderly idiot invalid like columbiacounty to a 4 year old child (or someone with an equivalent IQ), to an ape like w67thstreet, to actual smart, sophisticated productive people.
The technology currently exists to manufacture commercial airplanes that go more than twice the speed of the Concorde. But nobody wants to build such a plane.
Because fuel economy is more important??????
>Because fuel economy is more important??????
Noise issues.
I would take the time traveler on a 747. I would explain that the plane was the same model but, much newer.
The flight attendent, same one from 1970. (explains the aluminum walker, also no tech advance)
what about inovations in industries such as porn?
any idea what pron looked like in 1970?
still pictures printed on paper and stapled together to make a thing called a magazine.
(I only read them for the articles, that lustful Jimmy Carter)
I don't even want to mention the abilities of an i-pad when it comes to this realm.
what about elected representation?
today we have republican cult members, Afro-American pizza tycons, womanizing known cheaters, texan religious fanatics and, Ron Paul all trying to gain our attention for the presidential nomination.
We've come a long way baby!