Anyone Else Surprised by UDigs Inventory Trend?

Brooks2 "...Some apartments in Manhattan have traded under 500psf..."

So what?

SOME apartments in NYC have traded for over $13,000psf

w67thstreet: as usual, you make the case all on your own, with our further comment required. Flmaozz

I am very pretty rich daughter of Russian oligarch who steal much riches from the Russian ppl. I have a need for this $1500psf apt. Where iz this place?, billyburg.

Where iz my fleet of escalades? Hurry I have root dying (top and bottom) appt in hour. my father wantz to zee the rezults.

"If it's prices 30-40% above the market, if it gets noticed by a qualified buyer, He/she will not take them as a realistic seller. So, the "askeded" is important."

If a seller is not taken as "realistic", do they even matter?

Damn. $15,000psf are we all headed there? That what of my commercial re holdings? I'm gonna be so fking rich!!!!!! Where are all my heloc bankers?

check out where columbiacounty calls inonada an idiot:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/30081-what-cost-more-feeding-the-car-or-the-family

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=&mindt=06%2F20%2F2011&maxdt=06%2F19%2F2012&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2008%2F01%2F01

If usual seasonal patterns apply thru the rest of 2012, after not much of a spring bump, inventory will continue its recent slide ride thru Dec, thus no downward price pressure given demand (pace of pendings). Combine with possible additional Fed action (more $$ injected into big NY banks)....?

Fundamentals are worse, so prices will trend down

I'm a bear but honestly, fundamentals are improving. That said, there is still possibility for Europe crisis to worsen and/or foreclosure to start to impact the housing market (so far the impact of the foreclosure agreement has been tamed).

fundamentals are improving? please explain?

lets start with NYC employment. Is it higher or lower that last year.

On inventory, my most humble opinion remains, it is still tail wagging dog.
If Noah could explain what goes into his "off market" criteria because if this is "shadow inventory" I think it may be substancially off on the too low side.
Certainly a difficult number to quantify, but I know at least 3 people who were "off the market" for 6 months and then magically "in contract."

Though on NYC delinquencies, banks seem to be in unison now, ratcheting up collections (particularly the last month) and full steaming all the non payers. Question is, how much of it are banks feeling the market can weather the soon to be uptick in REOs, or is it just a matter of it being 2/3 years and time to put the hammer down.

Unemployment will continue to be the heaviest anchor on the market for the near future.
Rising interest rates would pummel the market but I see the government continuing to do everything possible to maintain this artificial band-aid.

re: If Noah could explain what goes into his "off market" criteria because if this is "shadow inventory" I think it may be substancially off on the too low side.

that's in real terms. but if the counting methodology has been consistent over the life of his database, then relative inventory is what it is

Found this which is pretty clear cut

"OFF-MARKET Inventory refers to all exclusive listings that move from an active state to a 'off-market' state in the REBNY Listing Service. We believe this captures around 90% of the Manhattan marketplace and only excludes non-REBNY member listings as well as FSBOs (For Sale By Owner Listings).

To be counted in our OFF-MARKET Inventory, the listing must first be measured in an ACTIVE state and then be changed to an OFF-MARKET (TOTM, POTM, OFF EXCLUSIVE) state by the listing broker. The listing will be measured as off-market as long as the listing state does not change or a period of 270 days is reached. Once a listing is off-market for longer than 270 days, it is not longer counted as off-market inventory. The goal of this measurement is to track the behavior of listings that do not sell or are removed from the active marketplace for seasonal reasons. By measuring off-market trends, we can tell if movements in ACTIVE inventory are a function of demand or a function of listings moving both on and off market"

THat being the case and if the above is dead accurate, I believe the over 270 day crowd to be substancial.

http://www.urbandigs.com/talk/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=90

the off-mkt measure is quite interesting right now. it confirms the strength of the market shown in recent supply/demand trends, and likely indicates that the new stuff that does come to market is being snapped up fairly quickly.

Sellers have no reason to take a listing off the mkt when leverage is shifted to their side -- either their listing goes to contract and enters a 'pending' state on UD, or lingers as ACTV

Sellers have every reason to take a listing off the mkt when leverage shifts to the buyer -- either seasonally or when a shock to the market hits (a.k.a, look at off mkt after Lehman failed and you will see it spike for months indicating stress).

Its almost like the UD off mkt inadvertently becomes like a VIX of sorts for Manhattan RE. declining in periods of complacency/euphoria and spiking in times of volatility.

so called shadow inventory (lets call it all the new dev inventory that is yet to hit market plus pocket listings or lead listings that are not yet actv), is very hard to measure. the new dev boom resulted in deveolopers under-reporting their inventory stats to rls. They had a 250-unit bldg, so they released 20 units as actv, yet would sign deals for un-activated units all the time if pushed hard enough. This flaw poisoned the supply/pending data from 2005-early 2008. That is why we start measuring since Jan 2008, removing this poisonous data to an otherwise elegant tracking system

discussed this here while in dev of the system -- http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/05/the_new_dev_problem_standardiz.html

to track shadow inventory properly, you would need to scrape schedule-As of every filed new dev in Manhattan, and sync that to rls updates of inventory from sales offices of these devs. So a 250-unit bldg has 20 units released as actv, but the other 230 automatically get marked in our systems as off-mkt, until activated by the sales office. that way at least you can measure these listings. Only this wont work without support from the rolex sharing systems, that require a listing agent to change status of that listing back to an actv state for 1 day prior to changing to pending state. The way it worked back in 2006-2007, they never released them at all and then all of a sudden released 1000s of listings, "already in contract" as SE shows them. In rls, the first status update was CSGN, without ever being ACTV. Internal rules governed by REBNY should mandate all listings must be in an actv state for 1 day prior to be changed to in contract state, so that the market could be accurately measured.

I would like to think changes like this are coming in the years ahead.

The line heads north. It's about time:

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?t=Market+Trends&s1=Active

About to set a FIVE YEAR LOW. What's up with dat?:

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=&mindt=12%2F14%2F2010&maxdt=12%2F13%2F2012&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2008%2F01%2F01

With the serial investment flippers now gone, there is a new "normal."
Add seasonality and uncertainty of taxes and you have current inventory levels.

Or the possibility that more New Yorkers than ever are suddenly really happy where they are?

"Or the possibility that more New Yorkers than ever are suddenly really happy where they are?"

New Yorkers...happy? HAHA! HAHAHAHA!!

I hate people...

You gotta problem? Thought 10006 was the angry one.