80 Metropolitan

um ok brokerpig...

same designer as home depot stores?

big deal, one floor is down, im sure they have to get it down to entice would be buyers...watch construction halt to a crawl. Anyone believe that in this market the sponsor will opt to release most of units for sale in recession year (2009) or perhaps slow down construction so that they can raise prices when these units realistically become available (end of 2010).. good luck

Come on. Enough already. Not a broker. I'm a first time home buyer. I'm buying a unit at this property and am providing an update to the other buyers. I believe in this development. That's all. And who cares if they designed the Home Depot Stores? This isn't a Home Depot. One floor is a big deal to me. Simply put, it's progress. Is there anything wrong with being excited about your future home? Seriously - why do you have to be so negative?

I agree with BillyRes. I too am a buyer in this building and have been stopping by the neighborhood every month or so to check out the progress. I kinda wish that they would be done even sooner so I can move in. I'm really looking forward to it.
As of this writing, they have finished the top floor and are now putting the brick facade on the building. Can't wait until they finish the exterior and get to the interior.
Don't be a hater northsider.

BillyRes, glad to hear things are moving at 80 Met. I moved in nearby (as you know) 2 months ago, so I try to keep an eye on the progress at the site. It's not moving as fast as the Edge recently, but there are no signs of it "halting to a crawl." I think the development benefitted from starting sales earlier. Urban Green has made very significant progress by the way. I believe they're up to 3 or 4 stories now, so maybe closings around early next year as well.

Whoops, saw that this thread was started 5 months ago! newbrooklyn, resurrecting old material, are we?

Yeah, might as well. I saw this thread for the first time yesterday and thought it was worth continuing the discussion and sharing of information.
I agree with you that construction doesn't seem to be moving as quickly as Urban Green or the Edge. Urban Green didn't even start until earlier this year because of stop work orders and they're already almost finished with the outside structure.

Please pick up the pace 80 Met developers!

No problem, newbrooklyn. I think 80 Met's doing a good job, and I'd actually be a bit wary if they were moving "too quickly." I think you'll be pleased with the way the area's come along. That particular corner is way quieter than N6/Bedford obviously, but it's got some interesting stuff in the general vicinity. I looked briefly at the building when I was shopping, but I have to say one of the salespeople turned me off more than anyone I've ever met in RE (she was horrifically fake and over-the-top, straight out of a bad movie), but it was the higher common charges that eventually turned me away, as well as the slightly longer walk to the subway. But otherwise I think it'll be a pretty great building. Good luck!

Ah another 80 Met supporter - wonderful. Newbrooklyn, I too am anxiously awaiting the completion of the building. The building is unique in that (1) it is the only all brick new construction in the area, (2) it is a very large building, and (3) single developer who may not have the ecomonies of scale like the others. And so, this building will not go up overnight like some of the others - Rome wasn't built in a day! Despite all the bad news on Wall Street, the horrible housing market, and the excess supply in Williamsburg, I still believe we are making the right choice by buying now in this building. Although it is not the closest property to the subway, it is strategically positioned - away from the crowds, near the water, wedged between North and South Williamsburg, surrounded by a sprinkle of very nice stores and cool restaurants (should only get better in time). And if the RE blogs are any indication, there has been little criticism of 80 Met. I was in the neighborhood on a Saturday a couple of weekends ago. Bedford was buzzing with activity and many foreign (most European) accents - good sign of Williamsburg's appeal in my opinion. My friend said to me that it feels like the West Village pre-Marc Jacobs and the celebrity influx. Although I'm not a fan of Williamsburg adopting the uber excess of the far WV, I am excited about its potential to be even more desirable. Here's a short article that was featured in USA Today recently http://www.usatoday.com/travel/destinations/10great/2008-09-11-10-great-places_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip. bjw2103, hope you're still happy with your move to Williamsburg.

BillyRes, love the enthusiasm. I walked by 80Met again on Monday, looking pretty nice (it's somewhat reminiscent of my building, so maybe a little biased). I like the location more and more, as there are quite a few nice retail/restaurant/bar spots in the vicinity. But yes, very happy with the move, and can't see myself in too many other neighborhoods at this point. At the risk of sounding effusive, a good chunk of the northside feels like the quieter side streets of Soho (ie: not Prince/Broadway). Hang in there - you'll be moving in before you know it.

bjw2103, Good to hear you're happy with the move. Soho might be pushing it - but who knows what might evolve over time (ha!). I may have mentioned in one of my emails a while back. I went to an open house in your building. Very nice. Zen and private. Unit numbers in the hallways are very cool. Looking forwarad to next spring.

BillyRes, How do you think the recent news will affect prices in your new area?

lajeep405, I know you addressed BillyRes, but I live in the area as well, so thought I'd throw in my $.02. I think it's pretty clear the recent news will not help ANY neighborhood in terms of appreciating property values. The question is really dependent on how big the impact will be. Northside Williamsburg is a great area, but there's a significant amount of inventory now or in the next 1-2 years (and beyond most likely). While some new construction isn't particularly great, there are enough quality projects, and the neighborhood is already established to the point that it won't be a total nosedive. But anyone expecting to see appreciation in the near term here is probably a bit nuts. It just won't happen. This area (as many others are now) is a long-term play, especially if you're buying new construction. I think 7 years at the absolute minimum and you'll be ok. If you're certain you'll need a home in the near-term and are in excellent financial shape, your negotiating power is going to be quite high in the next few months at least. I bought recently and WB was already able to negotiate - fortunately, I bought in one of the few small buildings I truly loved, and it's mostly sold out, but anyone who's bought in the larger developments is probably going to have some neighbords who will have gotten better deals. I can't tell you how much - that remains to be seen.

lajeep405: I concur with bjw2103. If you're looking to flip, buying in Williamsburg isn't the best thing to do. Excess inventory and a weak economy are ingredients for long term planning. Williamsburg has a tremendous amount of potential - from an investment perspective that is what I'm buying into. Whether or not I will like the character of Williamsburg in 5-10 years will be determined (i.e., I like its current edge). Prices will fluctuate.

Like all great developed neighborhoods in and around the City that started out as fringe areas, some of us are choosing to get into the game before the mass influx. Good luck.

I am not looking to flip. I would just like to to get the most for my money. I don't think I can buy at the bottom but the prices are still seem to be at the top.

lajeep405, most developers are pretty good at playing hardball. You have to come in and be aggressive with your bids - they won't help you one bit on that end. In the next few months/year, they will certainly pay more attention to "lowball" offers. Just don't be afraid to walk, and you'll end up with more for your money.

Hi there, was very interested in this building except......there are absolutley no decent schools in this whole area...I don't think the people living here are going to bring up families in this neighborhood..there is no way I am commuting for school...you can get a nice apt in manhattan where ther are great schools....

Is anyone else worried about having already signed the contract and property values dropping? I am. Right now, there is no price protection program in place by the developer. I'd hate to see the condo worth significantly less than the amount I will be paying for it. I just read that Manhattan prices are down 20%.
Anyone thinking about asking the developers for a price reduction of some kind (ie closing costs)?

newbrooklyn: Since we've already signed a purchase agreement, I don't think we're in a position to ask for a price reduction. Of course many on this site have said it doesn't hurt to ask. Feel free to shout out if you want to have an offline dialogue. toribiot@hotmail.com

BillyRes, Yeah, I realize we're basically bound by the purchase agreement, but I've read many, many instances of people successfully renegotiating before the closing. For instance, check out this recent article:
www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/local-condo-buyers-remorse
I'm not suggesting that people ask for reductions for no reason, but rather for things like: loss of property values, late closings or material differences of the apartment.
I think if the property values are significantly lower near closing time, the bank's appraisal will bring that to light. Of course nowadays, it's difficult to get a loan for a property that's worth less than the purchase price.

Also, according to StreetEasy's data, only about 25-40% of the apartments are currently under contract. There hasn't been a signing since Sept. So I don't think the developer wants another vacant apartment if one is willing to walk away from the down payment.

So perhaps it's a bit early to make a move, but it's certainly worth thinking about.

Buy now or be priced out forever, Now is the time to buy or catch that falling knife. LMBBAO.

ap2492:
You could not have said it better. Steiner Equities obviously got caught in the wave of irrational exuberance that rippled through the real estate industry when planning for 80 Metropolitan. Many of the large, family-sized units offered there have languished on the market because the product is in part tailored to a demographic - families with school-age children - for whom the neighborhood is too inconvenient, precisely because of the lack of schools. At the price point demanded by Steiner for 80 Metropolitan, such families could comfortably reside in Manhattan in great public school catchment areas, forgo the unpredictable L Train, and avoid 80 Metropolitan's lackluster location. The reasoning behind 80 Metropolitan's pricing and unit mix seems especially nonsensical because young singles and childless entry-level couples have driven the migration to Williamsburg and Greenpoint from the very beginning of the great North Brooklyn fill-in. The product planning at 80 Metropolitan fails to reflect this. Now that the market has turned downward, the faulty planning and its devastating impact are being thoroughly revealed to the Steiner team. Hindsight is always 20/20. But foresight is the key to success.
http://deskcritsdeluxe.wordpress.com/

DeskCrits, I don't really agree with the "lack of schools" assessment. There are some pretty decent schools here, and they are improving (PS17 is probably the most notable - they got a great new library). There are certainly parents who send their kids to schools on the LES though, if it's really that much of a concern. That said, I'm seeing more and more families moving in to the area, so while these larger units might take more time to sell, I'm pretty confident they'll find takers. As for the location, I think you're off as well. It's not necessarily the best block in the area, but it's still prime Williamsburg, and within walking distance of 2 parks, several restaurants, shopping, bars, and galleries. It will certainly get better in the next few years as well.

Good public schools are lacking in the area. Good high schools are even harder to find in Brooklyn but NYC as a whole.

Has anyone heard an estimated completion date now that the economy has turned south. Has construction slowed on the project?

I've heard that it's still on schedule for late April.

"Is anyone else worried about having already signed the contract and property values dropping? I am"

Oh yeah, I am too.

Now I don't know come the end of April if prices in and around the place are really gonna be falling 30-40% as some people are saying, but if they do you think the developer would be open to throw in some incentives, especially if the building is still 60%-50% unsold? Wouldn't anyone who believed in the building early and signed on when there was nothing there, should kindly ask for them?

If the value is down 30-40% wouldn't it otherwise better for me walk without my 10%?

bjw213- The schools are a problem......do you have children? ...I don't think it makes sense to put my children in an "up and coming school" just to have stainless steel appliances... I went to visit the local catholic school....it was very sad...all the clocks didn't work...there was old furniture piled up in the unlit stairwells...it was very dirty and messy..disorganized and....the mats in the gym were ripped up..it goes on and on...very sad....looked like it was going to close any minute...
I live in an apt. approx 850 sq ft a street away from my kids school and would stay here because I love the convenience of Manhattan.

Why compare the schools in this part of Williamburg to Manhattan's best? You are comparing apples to oranges. People moving to Williamsburg recognize the area's potential. Evidence exists to suggest that Williamsburg is becoming (if not already) family friendly. There are many kids clothing stores in the area to support the population ($200 cashmere sweaters for kids at Sweet William on N.6th!) and one of the best kids products store in the metropolitan area is on N. 9th (Mini Jake Kids). "If you build it, he will come." They're already here.

newbrooklyn: Thanks for the link to the article. In January, I plan to start exploring financing options. The developers are working closely with Wells Fargo. I'm not sure if Steiner had the required Wells Fargo pre-approval when you signed. I plan to reach out to the Well Fargo contact representing the building to get more insight on the options. From there I will consider potential "bargaining" positions.

The problem is ....I can compare the schools to Manhattans worst...and Manhattan still wins!!!
Who cares about nice clothes...The truth is I so wanted to move to 80 met...I really like the neighborhood feel...but....as soon as the schools improve Wiliamsburg would really be a great place to live if you wanted to grow a family there. I really don't see the point in the commute to bring my kids everymorning into the city to go to school...and pull them out of their school for the hassel, only to live in Williamsburg. I am waiting until Spring to upgrade my space in Manhattan..when the prices will be better...Thanks but no thanks to Williamsburg right now....

I bike by there every day, construction has been going full tilt with lotsa workers clogging the coffee truck around 9:30am. They are pretty much finished the exterior.

114 units total, 38 "in contract"... that's at most 33% sold.

I have heard about some banks are not giving mortgages for units in buildings that are not at least 50% sold. I wonder if we might face that situation here. Thanks BillyRes for the suggestion to contact Wells Fargo for some insights on mortgage options especially since values have fallen. Good news is that mortgage rates will probably be low.

apt2492: Fair enough. Williamsburg is not the right place for you as your kids are currently in school. I agree. Their education should be number 1 priority. I highlight the kids clothing store only to demostrate that the Williamsburg population is changing. And the new stores that are popping up reflect that. Not tomorrow, but in time, Williamsburg will have better schools.

mimi3313. I plan to consider other financing options but I want to get Wells Fargo's point of view especially since they have a relationship and possible arrangement with Steiner. I'm interested to get an understanding of that relationship and how that may impact us the buyers in this particular building.

I wish you all the best who are investing in Williamsburg....I love the neighborhooh is is very nice....I would totally have invested now if I didn't have school age kids.....I am sure in time you will be doubling, tripling your investment!!!

mimi3313: I heard from a friend that the building needs only 25% of apartments in-contract for Wells Fargo to proceed with closings.

BillyRes and others: Please keep us in the loop concerning anything you learn from Wells Fargo. I think we'd all benefit from it. I'll be sure to do the same. Thanks.

So, I signed there, in which case would it be better to walk?

See this article in the NY Times Real Estate section:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/realestate/21livi.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=realestate

"Closing costs, too, have become %u201Cflexible,%u201D said Jay K. Overbye, a Halstead broker managing sales for the building. And the development is implementing price protection, meaning buyers already in contract will be compensated if units in their vertical line sell for less than they paid."

Does anyone have any details on the last sentence above? What exactly does that mean?

I believe that quote means that if, for example, you signed a contract for apt 1J, and then 3 months later, another person buys apt 2J for $10,000 less than you paid, then the price protection policy will kick in and you'll pay $10,000 less at closing.
However, as far as I've heard, Halstead has not officially put a price protection policy into effect at 80 Metropolitan (yet). If they did, then contract holders have not been told about it. I hope they do it soon.

ap2492, fair enough. I don't have children right now, so my consideration of the schools was more for near-to-long-term potential and I only saw good things coming for schools that decidedly improving (though I'll readily admit they weren't at a great starting point). Take a look at the article on the Northside in the Times this past weekend - they note PS17 and Conselyea's numbers and grading. Both schools received an A. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/realestate/21livi.html?pagewanted=2&ref=realestate)
I do understand that if you need schools right now, there are certainly better schools elsewhere in the city.

What doesn't make sense about the last sentence of the times article is that upper floors are more expensive. 2J will be more expensive than the 1J because it is higher up anyway, so the vertical line thing seems kind of pointless. What does that mean??? What they should do is to offer a price protection regarding price per sq. footage within units of similar value (like what floor it is on and what it is facing, etc.)

N77, some apartments on the first floor are more expensive because they have outdoor space compared to the rest above it, while others are more expensive like you said probably based on height. I agree though that the policy shouldn't be just about the vertical line thing, especially because some apartments were reconfigured to be 1 or 3 bedrooms several months ago. So what was a 2 bedroom above you is now a 1 bedroom.

I've enjoyed reading everyones opinions and info. I bought in this bldg early on and did a significant amount of due diligence. My major concerns about the view were on the south side, where there was a proposal to build 3 40 story towers on the site of the defunct domino sugar plant. I would bet those plans have been scrapped at least for a long while. as far as on the north side of the river, the taller bldgs dont kill the view, and there is some protected space there as well the huge warehouse on kent is 4 stories and cannot be built onto. As far as financing, I don't know about other ppl's experience but i found wells fargo to be nothing short of worthless. the broker never returned my call and when i finally spoke to her she put me in a minorr panic about being able to get the deal done. i have since found other resources. my sense is that unless there is some cooperation from the sponsor, many of these deals will fall through.

lk917: I think the Domino development project will not impact your views of the Bridge. April is around the corner and I haven't had a chance to consider finance options. Jay Overbye, Halstead broker, suggested that I reach out to Michael Westort at Wells Fargo (212) 805-1151. You might want to give him a ring and see what his perspective is on the on the building. Perhaps we should consider discussing options offline and approach the sponsor as a group.

Sounds risque or risky.

lk917:"my sense is that unless there is some cooperation from the sponsor, many of these deals will fall through."

I agree

What percentage is sold as of now?

Good question? When is the building scheduled to have its Grand Opening for tenants to move in?

about 30% sold. closings were set to begin apr 09. probably a little optimistic but not by much judging crudely by the progress. A good portion of those contracts were signed before the full mortgage meltdown with the understanding of 90% financing. Those deals no longer exist and i'm thinking some people in contract might not be flush w cash to cover another 10% as well as the huge closing costs that accompany buying new construction.

I've seen that a couple of listings dropped $30k

i am a williamsburg condo owner and parent. This is a wonderful community to raise kids in, and their are way more good schools here than you think. Williamsburg Northside is a great school for pre-schoolers. PS 84 has one of the best pre-K programs in the city. 17 is extremely well rated and more and more middle/upper middle class families are sending their kids there. Also, 577, a middle school, just moved in to 17's building, and that's a really good school too. PS132 has been well regarded for years, and now has a gifted and talented program.

in east williamsburg, there is extremely well regarded St. Nicholas (pre-school thru 8th grade).

to find out more from local parents, join the yahoo group, brooklynbabyhui.

spelling mishap - there, not "their" hopefully you will all forgive me!

FYI--Northside piers just implemented HUGE price reductions--about 40%

So looks like there won't be a price protection plan for this building after all. Still pretty much on schedule though.

It looks like they haven't sold a unit here in quite a while, i'm wondering if they will drop their prices as well

Well, that's not quite true. Two apartments went into contract late last month.

If just down the block prices are dropping by 30-40%, I don't see why at 80 met they would not decrease one bit. They might not have a price protection plan, but who of the 40 in contracts is gonna close at last year prices in a couple of months? Wouldn't it be better to walk?

N77, I don't think we'll see price drops at 80 Met, at least not on the level of Northside Piers' larger drops. NSP is in a bit of a unique situation with their second tower's units already on the market, and over 60 units still available in the (now somewhat less desirable) first. They need to get rid of that inventory fast, hence the move. Last I checked, there were about 17-18 units left at 80 Met, so I think all things considered, they're in good shape. That said, I'm sure people will be able to negotiate (and probably have already), but I don't think you'll see major drops in ask. The one caveat is if a whole lot of people walk away from their contracts - that could put a lot more pressure on them to drop asks. I've always felt 80 Met was overpriced, despite the great looking building, but many people were happy to pay.

believe me, i'm definitely entertaining the thought if walking. i've been in contract since '07. when i read about the price protection plan in nytimes, i contacted jay overbye (halstead agent) and inquired about it. he of-course said it was for new buyers only. given such, i haven't seen significant price drops. 5-10% on 2 bdrms +. in either case, unless i can soundly renegotiate a lower price, it is highly unlikely i will close.

39 units are in contract with 114 total. that's roughly 34%.

mk28, hadn't realized there were so many units left to be released. Why haven't they put more on the market? It's been on sale since '07, right?

I don't know that I'd just walk away from that much money even if the value has dropped. Of course, the percent lost is up for debate. Besides, I plan to live there for many years. By then, the market should have stabilized and prices will start to inch up again (slowly).
Not to minimize the risk, it's certainly a concern, but I'm looking long-term. Hopefully, I'm right!

One hope might be with the bank. If they appraise the value much lower than the purchase price, they may force a renegotiation with the sponsor.

newbrooklyn, the bank will look at comparable sales in the area. If the units at 80 Met don't appraise for the selling price, the buyer can't borrow the money. Could the sponsors just keep the down money if the sale can't go through? Is the sponsor under any obligation to renegotiate the selling price...other than to do the right thing?

mimi3313, yes that's what I meant about the bank. Thanks for clarifying for me and maybe some other readers.
According to the offering plan, we are responsible for getting financing. If we are unable to do so for whatever reason, they are allowed to keep the down payment.
I would hope that they see that renegotiating is in everyone's best interest. Yes, they might get to keep a deposit, but then they'd have an empty apartment with a common charge that comes out of their pocket. Not to mention a broker who gets nothing.
I personally know developers that would rather complete a sale instead of having yet another apartment vacant for months. They may not like it, but considering the current environment...

agree w/ above. in this environment the builder is not so much interested in your 10% as he is in closing the deal. when you buy preconstruction in a rising market, if you don't complete the deal, you walk, he keeps 10% and sells the property to the next buyer right around the corner for a higher price than your original contract. in this shitty market,, they're not finding buyers. if 2 contracts have been signed as stated above thats 2 in quite a long time. these units are not selling. they must adjust the price. who will close and buy into a bldg where 2/3 are not sold and there is no momentum. although i would hate to lose a deposit, its a lot worse to be upside down on a mortgage. also from what i understand it is unusual to lose all of the deposit. if one must litigate to regain some portion of the deposit the unit cannot be sold until the litigation is settled.

You may be able to negotiate a lower price by using the actual square footage of the unit vs. what they claimed the square footage is on the unit you are purchasing. Most of the time you will find that the sq ft is represented as 10% more than what it actually is. On an apartment that claims to have 668 sq ft might only be 600 sq ft in reality. When the prices are averaging $800 per sq ft, you would be overpaying by $800 x 67 = $53,000.00. Since you are buying site-unseen, you may be able to get them to discount for not delivering the space that was presented to you. Most of the floorplans are basically square so you only need to measure one end of the apartment to the other longest distance and multiply to get the square footage. Let me know if you have any success with this.

vidxprt, there is a clause in the offering plan stating if the sponsor increases or decreases the square footage of unit more than 5% (excluding interior partitions), and purchaser refuses to the material change, he/she will be refunded the deposit made under purchase agreement. so a change from 668 to 600 sq ft would be unlikely, but hopeful for some!

I'm not talking about the dimensions of the rooms but the overall square footage. Most of the time the dimensions of the rooms are accurate on the plans but the square footage calculations are "approximate". If you calculate the square footage by the dimensions on the floor plan you will discover that the "Approximate Square Footage" is about 10% inflated. This is done to make the price per square foot look more in line with the going rate in the area. Let me know what you find.

mk28, under which part of your contract do you see this square footage clause?

I don't remember the page where the clause is, but mk28 is correct. There is a clause that allows for (I think) a 5% variance in the dimensions.

I too went into contract last March and now having second thoughts. Are any of you trying to negotiate closing costs are trying to secure any other type of concessions?

Would it be more effective if those of us under contract went to the developers as a group and tried to negotiate some kind of concessions?

I see some legal barely intelligible statement on page 75 of the offering plan about the 5%. I guess this is what you guys are talking about. I'll have my lawyer translate it to language that normal people speak.
Johnny and mimi, i think many people would have second thoughts. personally i don't want to lose my 10%, but it would be worse to sign up for a mortgage that you are immediately upside down on. Also I don't know if you guys were planning on financing through wells fargo but i was told they won't do 90% financing anymore, which i bet at least some people who signed contracts were counting on. Anyway, I'm not sure what the best way to proceed is, perhaps it is best to negotiate as a group. It will also be interesting to see what happens to prices in the in the next couple of months and whether anything else in the bldg sells.

from curbed today

Brooklyn: 20% Off?

Tuesday, February 17, 2009, by Joey

2009_2_20off.jpgReal estate guru Michael Stoler, the man with the best suspenders in the biz, adds this bit of insight to his Northside Piers firesale report: "A number of other condominium developments are holding back from publicly announcing that they are offering discounts for new units. According to real estate sources, if a buyer really wants to make a deal, he can negotiate price reductions for as much as 20 percent off the purchase price for condo units in some neighborhoods in Brooklyn. In Manhattan, the bidding and asking prices for sincere purchasers can range from 7 to 15 percent."

Should we (potential buyers) consider other alternatives other than these blogs for communicating our concerns? I appreciate the open forum and recognize its value, but am concerned about the overexposure. Solutions? Alternatives?

Williamsburg was a great idea. But when times are uncertain, unless you are a venture capitalist, you don't put a portion of your money behind "great ideas" and even if you do, you don't put more than 5% in any given investment and more than 20% of your portfolio. So buying on leverage (i.e. putting more than 100%) is NOT the best way to to.

I do think that when the time comes we should approach the developer as a group and firmly negotiate. As more potential buyers come out we need to think how.

BillyRes, I'd suggest starting an online group (Google Groups or Yahoo) to privately discuss these things. It's worked out really well for my building. Good luck - I really hope things work out for you.

I think that's a great suggestion

I can create a resticted Google group for us.
"People must be invited to join the group. Only members can post messages, read the archives, view the members list, create pages and upload files. Your group and its archives do not appear in public Google search results or the directory."
How does this sound? One concern though, how do we make sure people who join are really contract holders, aren't brokers, etc? The point of this group is to make sure we can speak more privately than an open forum like this.
bjw2103, any suggestions since you're already part of one for your building?

I think the restricted Google group is a great idea. Definitely would want to be a part of it.

newbrooklyn,

Not sure how to vet people as we did this upon actually moving in. I would keep one person as administrator though, that way you can kick someone off if need be. Good luck future neighbors (I live in the area)!

I would definitely join as well.

newbrooklyn: If you're willing to act as the administrator and screen applicants, there may be a way to ensure only genuine individuals are admitted to the group. Feel free to reach out via email (toribiot@hotmail.com).

Check out the new 80 Metropolitan web site. Much better than the old one and it appears that the prices have not been reduced.

I stopped into the sales office a week ago to look at a unit that is listed as available on the site. They tried to tell me that it wasn't available and upgrade me to a higher floor at 50K higher price. The unit is still listed as available, and has an open house this weekend. I call that bait and switch. Especially since the agent told me that he was buying the unit!

I've created the group, but have yet to determine the best method for screening members. I'd like to solicit ideas from everyone here. Please email me directly instead of posting on this forum.
newbrooklyn1@gmail.com (that's a number ONE before the @ symbol)

The google group sounds like a very good idea.

This is another call to any contract holder who wants to join the 80 Metropolitan google group to discuss privately.
Please email me at: newbrooklyn1@gmail.com (that's a number ONE before the @ symbol)
Some people have been a bit slow to follow-up, but I hope that we can start serious discussions as soon as possible.
If you already got a follow-up email from me, please respond.
Thanks.

I am looking for a 2 br with terrace in WB and went by 80Met yesterday -- too late for the open house. 80Met is my favorite for space/location/finishes. I agree about "family-sized apartments" - I'm an empty nester, no kids but lots of books/stuff and used to a little breathing room. The saleswoman said there were deals to be made on closing costs, parking etc... I believe she told me the building was 55% sold -- I could be wrong as I went to about 10 places yesterday! Most were disappointing - 100 N 3 had gaps between the floorboards. Should I buy into 80Met?

Buying an apartment in Williamsburg right now is absolutely insane. Everyone except recent buyers and real estate brokers are sure that prices are going to crash hard. Don't ask people with vested interests whether you should make the largest investment of your life. That's plain stupid.

driggs, I hope you see that your point of view is just as biased as those on the other side. Judging others' financial decisions with so little information (or making huge blanket statements as you did above) is short-sighted and often just plain wrong. There's a big difference between advising caution and calling something "insane" or "stupid."

bjw, I really don't get this whole "blanket statement" argument of yours. Are you trying to say that certain buildings in Williamsburg are going to maintain their current values? I don't believe that's true.

Are you trying to say that certain people might be in circumstances where it makes sense to buy at inflated prices that are certain to drop? If so, I don't think that's true either. That would be like saying certain people were smart to buy Citibank stock 9 months ago. In fact, no. Nobody would have been smart to buy Citibank stock 9 months ago. That's an accurate blanket statement.

Blanket statements can absolutely be accurate. It's just that people with vested interests don't like accurate blanket statements that disagree with their positions.

The fact is that Williamsburg real estate is in for a major downturn. Naive people who are not well educated in investments or money matters are easily swayed by boards like this and brokers' opinions. They invest everything they have based on nonsensical advice. I actually think it would be immoral to NOT tell people what I'm saying. To induce naive buyers into purchasing properties that all the trained professionals know for certain are about to crash in value. That's plain wrong. In 18 months, when this same person is crying on this board about how he's losing his life savings and about to go under, you know what the brokers are going to say? Hey, he made the decision to buy. He had to look at the information available to him and make his own decision. Tough shit for him.

Markets are cyclical and they correct. This one has been flying high for 12-14 years. It's about to correct hard. Williamsburg is not a prime location in the NYC real estate world. It's only "prime" to young, ignorant brokers who are trying to make a buck and young, naive buyers who moved here in the last couple years and bought into the marketing. Seasoned NYC real estate people have a much different opinion of Williamsburg property.

If somebody told you 12 months ago that stocks were going to lose 12 years of value in the next 12 months, that would have seemed pretty crazy. Today, stocks are worth less than BEFORE the tech bubble. Yes, LOWER than when the bubble burst. If stocks are now worth 1997 prices, is there some reason that property can't go down to 1997 prices? No. Do you know what Williamsburg prices will look like if Manhattan drops to 1997 prices? Maybe $300/sq ft. Hell, maybe less. Seriously.

Prices are about to be decimated here. Worse than whatever happens in Manhattan.

If you're naive enough with few enough connections (no family or very close friends with deep experience in NYC real estate) to come here for real advice about whether to invest $1 million of your hard earned money, here's the answer: NO! Don't be an idiot. Wait.

Anyone still contemplating buying in Williamsburg in this market is just not a money person, not an investment type. They're being taken advantage of. And they're going to be in a world of pain in 18 months.

"Are you trying to say that certain buildings in Williamsburg are going to maintain their current values? I don't believe that's true."

driggs, the problem with that assertion is, you don't know what the value is of every single apartment in Williamsburg. It's a really silly statement.

"Are you trying to say that certain people might be in circumstances where it makes sense to buy at inflated prices that are certain to drop? If so, I don't think that's true either. That would be like saying certain people were smart to buy Citibank stock 9 months ago. In fact, no. Nobody would have been smart to buy Citibank stock 9 months ago. That's an accurate blanket statement."

Yes, it might make sense for someone to buy now. Why are you so certain they can't negotiate right now and get a good deal? The C comparison is also silly - you're talking about one stock versus a wide assortment of properties. And it's not really a blanket statement you're making - saying nobody would have been smart to buy any equities 9 months ago would be an example. And it's wrong.

"Naive people who are not well educated in investments or money matters are easily swayed by boards like this and brokers' opinions. They invest everything they have based on nonsensical advice. I actually think it would be immoral to NOT tell people what I'm saying. To induce naive buyers into purchasing properties that all the trained professionals know for certain are about to crash in value. That's plain wrong. In 18 months, when this same person is crying on this board about how he's losing his life savings and about to go under, you know what the brokers are going to say? Hey, he made the decision to buy. He had to look at the information available to him and make his own decision. Tough shit for him."

It's pretty conceited to think this way, no? Are you really some kind of financial savior? People have the responsibility and the freedom to make their own decisions, and with the very limited info we get here on Streeteasy, it's wrong to make that call for them. People make good and bad decisions regardless of what you'll say here. I think you overstate your (and other posters') purported influence.

"It's only "prime" to young, ignorant brokers who are trying to make a buck and young, naive buyers who moved here in the last couple years and bought into the marketing. Seasoned NYC real estate people have a much different opinion of Williamsburg property."

It's not prime, I agree, but it's not some ridiculous fringe area that only appeals to one specific demographic either. And yes, even "seasoned NYC real estate people" recognize this.

"If somebody told you 12 months ago that stocks were going to lose 12 years of value in the next 12 months, that would have seemed pretty crazy. Today, stocks are worth less than BEFORE the tech bubble. Yes, LOWER than when the bubble burst. If stocks are now worth 1997 prices, is there some reason that property can't go down to 1997 prices? No. Do you know what Williamsburg prices will look like if Manhattan drops to 1997 prices? Maybe $300/sq ft. Hell, maybe less. Seriously."

Again, comparing stocks to real estate isn't particularly fruitful. If prime Manhattan reaches 1997 prices (I don't think they will, but you never know), then yes, Williamsburg prices will suffer just as much. And as I've said before, if they drop to under $300/sqft, I'll almost certainly buy more. But really, it just sounds to me like you desperately want this to happen so you can get in on the cheap. That's great, but that doesn't make it a reality.

trinityparent, I would wait if I was you. At least 2-3 months, meaning at least till the whole building is up and running. I signed before the big crash, but if I was looking now, I wouldn't rush. Having said that 80 Met is a very good building, but I think that less than 50% is in contract.

bjw,

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm driven by a number of things. Mostly, I think the influence of people with vested interests trying to prop up bubble markets has had a very negative effect on this city and on our country. So I'm pushing back against that in this forum. This applies to everything from derivatives and equities to real estate. The sooner we return to long-term averages, the better off we'll be. Dragging out this fiction of inflated housing prices just prolongs the agony.

I'm pretty happily renting right now, and don't have a whole lot of motivation to buy. In fact, if nobody buys in Williamsburg and everybody looks to rent as I advise, it could actually increase rental demand in the neighborhood and have an adverse effect on me, or maybe not.

I think elitist and paternalistic are the adjectives you want to use, rather than conceited. A lot of uneducated, naive people have gotten screwed in this country over the last couple years. They're just starting to realize this now. When I came across this board recently (which was pretty random, by the way), it became pretty clear that the brokers and recent buyers were spinning stories that I believe to be completely inaccurate. It also seems that some potential buyers actually use these boards for real advice on whether to make very expensive investments. So, yeah, my paternalistic instinct has been triggered. Real estate is a very highly regulated industry and the insiders have an unfair advantage. Many consumers are very easily persuaded (see, e.g., credit cards, sub-prime mortgages, etc., etc.). The myth of open information and market based decisions is a fallacy, especially in an industry as regulated as real estate.

I have an Ivy league law degree and family with 40 years of experience developing properties in New York. I also happen to have a brokers license, which I've never used, but I've looked into how the system works. So as a pretty educated guy who gets inside information from family who truly know this market, I'm contributing my opinion to counter-act the brokers on this list. That's more or less my only motivation. I also just like to argue, and I have way too much time on my hands this week.

Wow. I'm ivy too, and think i'm sophisticated but obviously don't know that much about this subject. Tell me this: if you sell and buy in the same market, isn't it a wash? I'm looking to downsize from a lovely classic 7 on the UWS to a couple's 2br in a hipper nabe. (Not that I have offers yet on my happy family home.) If my buyer gets a steal, I get a steal. If my buyer has to live in the place 10 years to get his money back, I have to live 10 years in the new place to get my money back. What's the diff?

trinity, if you don't care about the economics of it, then screw what people on this board think. Buy a place you like and take a loss. All my opinions are premised on the idea that the economics matter.

Regarding your question about your buyer, your premise is that you must own real estate. You should consider thinking outside the box a little more than that. The ideal situation is that you sell to your buyer and then you get your money into a different asset class. In other words, you can sell and then rent. Then your buyer takes a loss and you don't. In 18 or 24 months, when your buyer is under water, you can buy a hip new 2 bedroom on blue light special.

NYC is going to experience an economic shockwave from what's going on in this country. There's a real failure to process what's happening out there right now. Just take a look at a chart of NYC real estate prices over the last 12 years and ask yourself if prices ever go up like that forever. Think about the tech boom that you lived through in equities. There was so much hype, so much momentum, right up to the very end. And then, just like every other asset bubble, crash! Ask some friends about what New York real estate was like from 1988 to 1993. Learn from history.

Actually i bought the apartment i live in now, in 1991, from an overleveraged Lehman Managing Director who lost his job. He had 5 banks lining up at the closing to get their money. I got a 20-year mortgage. I'm assuming I can sell for enough to clear an all-cash buy.

It sounds like you're in great shape. Congrats.

I think the amount you're likely to pay in rent for a year or two is less than the decrease in value your condo would experience over the same period. But this obviously depends on what price condos you're looking at and what the rent would be for a place you'd be comfortable with in the interim.

If I'm right about prices, you're still better off renting for a little while, and buying at our equivalent of 1991, which will likely be in about 18 to 24 months. During that rental time, you could earn interest on what is likely a substantial amount of money. That interest would offset some of the cost of renting, even though interest rates are obviously very low right now.

If you buy and I'm right about prices, then you'd be putting down all the cash now, forgoing the interest you could have earned, and buying an asset that will very likely decrease in value significantly over the next couple years.

I think the key to my argument is that I honestly believe prices in Williamsburg could drop by astronomical amounts over the next couple years - think somewhere between $300 to $450 per sq ft. If you agree with that, then it's hard to paint any picture where it makes sense to buy, even in your very favorable position. If you disagree with me about the prices, then that's a different story.

One other note is that you're talking apples and oranges with the neighborhoods here. Certain prime Manhattan neighborhoods are going to get nailed, but nothing like what could happen in Williamsburg (again, in my opinion). So the analysis might be different if you're not talking Williamsburg.

Trinity- the bldg is about 1/3 sold
i agree with some of the advice above
if i were in your shoes, esp w/ the ability to make an all cash offer i would
1> not buy into a project until it was completed and a good # of units were occupied (like at least 50%, preferably >70%)
2> probably wait to see some sort of downward movement in price- with all due respect to an ivy league educated attorney- no one can predict where the prices will trough- but common sense certainly dictates they should go down significantly
3> flex my muscle as a cash buyer in a market where no one can guarantee financing and make very very low offers with the mindset of walking away from every negotiation until i got a deal that blew me away

Does anyone know if you are able to get a mortgage these days in a building that isn't 50% sold or under contract already? I heard that lenders won't even consider giving mortgages to anyone trying to buy into a building that is less than 50% under contract. Secondly, it would be interesting to know how the Lenders determine the value of the property in today's market. Usually an appraisal is done and lenders will not allow a mortgage for more than the property appraised for. Does anyone have any real information on how appraisals might be adjusted to meet up with any market decline and/or how lenders might be doing the same when figuring the loan to value ratio?