Manhattan Apt Bldgs Prices at Peak as Rents Jump

inonda apparently lives in a lavish 2BR she now rents for $2.5k from $6k in '06, despite the studio across the hall going for $3.5k

would the opposite of a unicorn be a mule

how much to lease one? any discount sans saddle? i'll go bareback if you shave 2% and lock in 2 yr term, please.

its a he but yes

"I know nothing"

Can't be true. Nada says so. Renewal time must be ugly as sin in that household. Lot's of words like "shitlist" going around.

"Tenant demand for Manhattan apartments drove the median rent in the first quarter up 7.1 percent from a year earlier to $3,100 a month, the largest annual gain since 2007, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said. "

Let's me first give you the facts. The article's data source is median rents from Miller Samuel. Here is the actual data since 2007:

Year Quarter Median
2012 1 3,100
2011 4 3,145
2011 3 2,995
2011 2 2,896
2011 1 2,895
2010 4 2,950
2010 3 3,000
2010 2 3,000
2010 1 3,100
2009 4 2,900
2009 3 2,950
2009 2 3,100
2009 1 3,300
2008 4 3,200
2008 3 3,195
2008 2 3,200
2008 1 3,200
2007 4 3,200
2007 3 3,200
2007 2 3,195
2007 1 3,264

We've been having this conversation now for a couple of years, right? Funny how the article picked the $2,895 low of Q1 2011 as the reference point. Why not say "down 1.5% since Q4 2011"? Also funny how last year at this time, you boobs were not talking about "median rents are down 7% to $2,895 from $3,100 last year". And funny how the article talks about "the largest annual gain since 2007" rather than "rents still 5% below 2007 levels despite 12% inflation -- down 17% on a real basis".

Great mysteries...

rents for 3+ br in good parts of manhattan are way above 2007 levels. I think this average is pulled down by piece of $hit studios and 1brs in fringe areas (clinton, midtown east, murray hill...).

Nope, not really. If you had been in the market in 2007 vs. now maybe you'd have maybe a clue. If anything, the data shows studios & 1BRs having made up most of the lost ground, but 3+ BRs are seriously lagging.

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2012 1 2,350 3,195 4,500 5,815 9,660 3,100
2011 4 2,350 3,195 4,533 6,159 7,748 3,145
2011 3 2,200 3,098 4,095 6,295 19,000 2,995
2011 2 2,075 2,995 4,095 5,295 6,675 2,896
2011 1 2,200 2,970 4,300 5,998 12,000 2,895
2010 4 2,250 3,000 4,395 5,435 11,500 2,950
2010 3 2,195 2,950 4,250 5,233 6,195 3,000
2010 2 2,100 3,000 4,499 6,698 9,100 3,000
2010 1 2,048 3,000 4,645 6,829 12,500 3,100
2009 4 2,100 2,850 4,700 6,588 11,500 2,900
2009 3 2,000 2,895 4,700 6,800 12,000 2,950
2009 2 2,000 2,795 4,550 7,673 14,700 3,100
2009 1 2,150 3,000 4,995 7,850 14,500 3,300
2008 4 2,295 3,185 4,700 8,000 20,000 3,200
2008 3 2,395 3,250 4,795 7,145 22,500 3,195
2008 2 2,450 3,220 4,795 8,000 15,000 3,200
2008 1 2,350 3,195 4,948 8,000 23,500 3,200
2007 4 2,300 3,200 4,995 6,695 12,500 3,200
2007 3 2,295 3,250 4,895 7,250 10,500 3,200
2007 2 2,275 3,220 4,630 6,530 13,625 3,195
2007 1 2,250 3,195 4,800 7,500 12,900 3,264

just a lot of cheerleaders out there... sounds like the owners of the losing team paying the cheerleaders more

The anecdotes in the article are of foreign investors buying Manhattan investment properties at prices that they acknowledge cannot be justified based on current income. Really? Bubble buyers are back?

heres my facts...i bought in 2010, and just refid 75bps lower on a 30yr fixed to 4% dropping my monthly carry 5%. The appraisal came in 9% higher than my purchase price. so far so good.

>heres my facts...i bought in 2010, and just refid 75bps lower on a 30yr fixed to 4% dropping my monthly carry 5%. The appraisal came in 9% higher than my purchase price. so far so good.

Yes, but what if you bought Sprint?

It all depends on which sector of the market and which neighborhood, and median and average price don't mean that much. UES, especially east of Lex. is down in sale price, probably in rental (not sure). I imagine that condos in the West Village and Chelsea are up.B

A better way to look at the data is price per sq ft for all apartments. Last column in the table below from Jonathan Miller website. 20114 means fourth q of 2011. We are pretty close to the peak in per sq ft rent of $53.50 for 2008. Prices are still at 2005 level with much lower carrying cost due to lower rates when the rents were in low 40s per sq ft.

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2012 1 53.97 52.68 50.59 52.10 54.56 52.57
2011 4 52.21 53.15 49.45 53.92 54.32 52.16
2011 3 52.56 50.78 49.16 50.82 63.25 51.03
2011 2 50.89 50.95 47.74 46.80 54.91 50.03
2011 1 50.64 48.53 47.66 50.29 60.04 49.09
2010 4 48.55 49.07 49.60 48.01 63.53 49.13
2010 3 47.82 49.34 45.05 37.62 42.48 47.22
2010 2 47.55 50.02 49.81 54.01 51.55 49.60
2010 1 51.61 46.89 46.63 53.76 56.42 46.91
2009 4 47.28 44.71 49.10 52.67 50.78 47.02
2009 3 50.52 46.62 46.66 47.94 60.94 47.84
2009 2 52.13 43.87 46.20 52.81 63.42 44.16
2009 1 49.98 47.04 51.64 54.44 60.16 48.41
2008 4 50.20 50.70 48.60 56.50 103.80 49.30
2008 3 52.40 53.20 50.70 61.20 96.50 52.80
2008 2 52.90 52.90 52.30 58.30 71.30 53.50
2008 1 53.20 51.90 50.20 59.80 95.40 52.02
2007 4 54.67 52.93 48.58 51.16 69.51 51.00
2007 3 52.40 52.10 49.60 49.90 58.90 50.00
2007 2 51.40 51.80 49.50 52.00 62.10 50.40
2007 1 50.70 47.50 50.40 55.10 78.80 50.90
2006 4 50.24
2006 3 50.36
2006 2 46.03
2006 1 45.43
2005 4 44.15
2005 3 42.23
2005 2 40.16
2005 1 40.47
2004 4 40.13
2004 3 38.75
2004 2 38.23
2004 1 37.51
2003 4 37.74
2003 3 37.16
2003 2 36.15
2003 1 37.29
2002 4 36.33
2002 3 37.57
2002 2 34.79
2002 1 37.15
2001 4 39.29
2001 3 40.74
2001 2 42.49
2001 1 44.91
2000 4 45.28
2000 3 44.44
2000 2 41.49
2000 1 40.11
1999 4 38.35
1999 3 36.95
1999 2 38.12
1999 1 36.73
1998 4 36.67
1998 3 35.60
1998 2 33.71
1998 1 33.95
1997 4 32.60
1997 3 33.42
1997 2 32.09
1997 1 30.80
1996 4 32.42
1996 3 30.95
1996 2 29.52
1996 1 30.05
1995 4 29.02
1995 3 25.93
1995 2 27.78
1995 1 27.67
1994 4 27.72
1994 3 26.02
1994 2 24.89
1994 1 26.85
1993 4 24.19
1993 3 22.59
1993 2 23.56
1993 1 25.25
1992 4 24.61
1992 3 23.14
1992 2 23.43
1992 1 23.44
1991 4 21.85

Love the data cruncher's on streeteasy. here's a question: anyone know anyone who is either going to get reduction at renewal time or is going to be able to get a better apartment for less money if they decide not to renew? inonada? anyone?

Jim, the following quick 1,2,3 process is guaranteed to get you a better apartment for less money:

inonada http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27390-se-index-up-for-may-2011
about 9 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse
I had written some stuff on another thread, but I'll make a summary here free of charge.

1. Wait until the ideal window to begin your search, which is the last possible moment. For condos, this'll be something like 6-7 weeks before your target move-in date. The point here is to be able to go into negotiations with an implicit "I'm the last shot you have of having a tenant occupy your place come Jan 1". With condos, there's a 1 week window to determine a place, a 1 week window to stamp out a lease, and 2-4 week lead time on approval from the condo board (though it can often be sooner). At 6-7 weeks out, that's extremely tight on "being sure you have a place to move into at the end of the month" and pretty much no one else will go any tighter.

2. Come the week of your search, scour StreetEasy with as wide a net as possible. I skip craigslist, NY Times, rental buildings, and rental brokers. You don't get all the inventory from SE, but it's the most bang for the buck in terms of time. I start with an extremely wide net (say several hundred listings), do a super-quick filtering to the top 100 or so. This amounts to just getting rid of the "crap that no one would touch" listings. It should take no more than 15 seconds to reject things, but keep an eye out for poorly-marketed gems in your filtering. From this 100, the spend some more time to filter down to say 20 places you like best. This whole process should take a few or several hours.

3. Prepare form emails to brokers at all 20 places, picking a date early in the week (like early Tue morning), describing yourself and that you are interested in seeing listing X for date Y sometime in the next few days & if they could let you know their availability. Send them all out at the same exact moment. Within an hour or two, you'll be deluged with 10+ responses (by day-end, it'll be 15+). This is good. Given availability and location, pack viewings tightly back-to-back. Like 4 places between 8:00 and 10:00 in the morning before you go to work, 4 places between 5:30 and 7:30 after work. The beauty of mid-week is that it might be a pain work-wise for you, but brokers' schedules are completely open and therefore can accomodate a time like 9:10AM that allows you place viewings back-to-back with 5 minute walking times in between. There'll be some scragglers that will be harder to schedule, but the bulk can be banged out. Viewing everything for the first time should take several hours, and you should have 15 of 20 places seen.

4. Once you've seen the majority of your list of 20 after a few days, formulate your form offer email to the top few (I did 5 or 6). Say how you liked the place, how it's one of a few places you're most interested in (hint, hint -- you've got competition), details on what a great tenant you make financially & otherwise, blah-blah. Put in the price & terms you like, don't be afraid of asking for too much. I came in at 10-20% off asking price in all cases (this was late 2010 after the market had supposedly recovered), got responses in all cases, and in about half the cases the responses were closer to the offer than the ask. Send the offers out simultaneously to all places.

5. With simultaneous offers, you'll get simultaneous responses. This is good. Because you will have backups, you know what you can push for. If some place is willing to play ball at say $3500, that's the number to beat. If someone doesn't give you a better deal, you can always go with the $3500. So you negotiate softly with the $3500, knowing you have a $3700 backup. And you can negotiate hard with $3700 knowing you have a $3500 backup. Use the few days of negotiating time for doing backup viewings at places that are willing to play ball to your satisfaction.

6. Once you've got your favorite, get a lease signed promptly and keep the a backup or two warm conscientiously during this process. Nothing like "Hey buddy, I told you I'm a straight shooter and am going with your place above the others, but if you want to hemm and haww on the terms you agreed to three days ago, you're going on my shitlist and I'm gonna start talking to the others again."

FYI, the $2.5 normalized-ppsf number was a large outlier even by my standards. It was a combination of being the best-priced thing to begin with, plus a willingness to play ball very close to my 15%-below-ask offer. The next best options (of which there were several) were in the $3.5 normalized-ppsf range, like malthus's place.

While I don't deny the existence of places asking $5 normalized-ppsf, these don't even come close to making the top-100 list. And while finding a $2.5 place and several $3.5 places might be extreme, I'm guessing most people can find one place at $3.5 with reasonable effort. My search & negotiations & everything took 20 hours total.

I don't know how huntersburg does it.
Either he has an amazing memory or he's using more charts than Noah.

"A better way to look at the data is price per sq ft for all apartments."

Sweet. Ppsf data says condos are up 30% since 2005. Care to buy one from a stuck 2005 flipper for just 20% more? Pure profit.

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2012 1 1,027 1,117 1,336 1,478 2,780 1,317
2011 4 1,071 1,157 1,205 1,563 2,040 1,295
2011 3 1,093 1,066 1,213 1,661 1,864 1,233
2011 2 989 985 1,205 1,616 1,701 1,182
2011 1 922 1,042 1,245 1,504 1,781 1,216
2010 4 923 901 1,240 1,512 2,400 1,198
2010 3 1,154 1,015 1,165 1,485 1,784 1,199
2010 2 851 923 1,116 1,396 2,106 1,134
2010 1 949 983 1,126 1,478 1,909 1,154
2009 4 1,044 1,005 1,171 1,546 1,876 1,187
2009 3 821 953 1,094 1,296 1,979 1,101
2009 2 1,018 1,046 1,158 1,467 1,749 1,181
2009 1 1,061 1,253 1,484 1,734 2,272 1,413
2008 4 1,034 1,081 1,386 1,763 2,324 1,277
2008 3 1,067 1,143 1,397 1,949 3,101 1,334
2008 2 1,216 1,257 1,523 1,806 2,700 1,442
2008 1 1,169 1,212 1,482 2,182 3,368 1,416
2007 4 1,046 1,116 1,412 2,053 2,092 1,310
2007 3 1,193 1,126 1,328 1,741 2,233 1,278
2007 2 1,039 1,076 1,237 1,588 1,808 1,178
2007 1 1,068 1,062 1,216 1,502 2,210 1,169
2006 4 1,001 1,047 1,286 1,630 2,301 1,184
2006 3 1,025 1,069 1,222 1,741 1,823 1,171
2006 2 1,067 1,039 1,200 1,501 1,733 1,149
2006 1 965 978 1,074 1,290 1,801 1,065
2005 4 945 1,011 1,232 1,129 2,456 1,112
2005 3 1,012 1,013 1,167 1,445 1,704 1,105
2005 2 900 938 1,155 1,403 2,777 1,089
2005 1 833 879 1,093 1,476 1,656 1,035
2004 4 812 827 842 1,139 1,493 854
2004 3 785 832 1,005 1,135 1,489 928
2004 2 778 792 931 1,121 1,197 875
2004 1 685 705 879 1,058 1,401 825
2003 4 681 692 897 1,050 1,237 817
2003 3 685 689 831 977 1,448 782
2003 2 613 675 773 982 1,185 742
2003 1 632 653 766 977 1,057 714
2002 4 637 672 790 897 1,470 744
2002 3 687 643 772 1,117 1,182 745
2002 2 586 618 727 938 1,417 697
2002 1 581 583 720 1,114 681
2001 4 614 618 741 1,166 2,109 706
2001 3 586 579 745 1,145 1,105 698
2001 2 606 620 719 1,164 696 696
2001 1 494 620 729 742 1,081 685
2000 4 560 561 656 978 760 635
2000 3 483 530 646 750 1,677 589
2000 2 443 533 657 1,147 935 623
2000 1 433 500 627 722 1,037 586
1999 4 388 455 510 738 1,025 485
1999 3 432 424 547 716 1,229 481
1999 2 363 409 500 610 521 450
1999 1 396 390 527 722 895 470
1998 4 331 409 565 687 915 478
1998 3 323 417 519 657 908 461
1998 2 304 379 467 619 1,212 413
1998 1 308 357 473 458 659 401
1997 4 293 331 423 582 770 378
1997 3 294 335 477 609 572 397
1997 2 289 319 425 620 706 378
1997 1 327 342 389 517 472 365
1996 4 275 288 374 484 326
1996 3 240 291 377 495 387 325
1996 2 254 298 370 457 599 333
1996 1 243 283 361 589 591 329
1995 4 225 282 346 608 633 315
1995 3 239 286 368 510 650 477
1995 2 235 295 363 427 624 316
1995 1 211 283 347 539 489 307
1994 4 227 283 379 501 417 325
1994 3 231 270 358 443 513 308
1994 2 250 265 330 377 548 294
1994 1 248 257 339 357 519 293
1993 4 229 274 338 507 349 302
1993 3 237 266 339 371 467 301
1993 2 243 268 347 527 528 309
1993 1 269 277 321 462 479 302
1992 4 244 278 332 428 783 307
1992 3 242 261 331 486 296
1992 2 269 296 352 403 378 319
1992 1 272 345 344 495 339
1991 4 234 300 384 534 581 340
1991 3 256 298 346 507 1,099 327
1991 2 281 326 351 452 460 336
1991 1 279 306 376 558 335
1990 4 284 308 376 461 338
1990 3 283 316 374 446 318 337
1990 2 280 326 403 666 705 363
1990 1 286 347 428 569 720 379
1989 4 291 357 439 488 586 383
1989 3 312 339 428 504 378
1989 2 335 361 437 709 537 397
1989 1 315 365 409 603 591 381

The article did not lie. J Miller did not lie. The INCREASE YOY is the greatest since 2007. And everyone and their 80 year old grandma knows real estate is seasonal, so YOY comparisons always matter more than sequential. Finally, the PPSF data is a lot more meaningful than overall prices.

So in other words, RENTS are and HAVE BEEN GOING UP, despite 12 months of inonada claiming they were not going up.

rah rah rah .... if he can't do ot noone can..

go team g000

of course nada conveniently ignores street easy condo index which is at 2005 level. but he likes a good argument as well.

@Marco_m: I was told that refi in NYC was not financially efficient unless you have at least 150bps difference. Didn't you have to pay some kind of tax? I am interested in your bank contact if you manage to do it for 75bps

you refi w/ the same bank that did your mortgage and you don't have to pay mortgage recording tax. i'd say closing costs should not be more than 5k

SE condo index using same-unit sales flat to 2005, yet ppsf condo sales average up 30%. Same-unit rents in condo buildings on SE flattish, maybe up 10%, to 2005 yet ppsf rents up 30%.

Such a complex world, what is one to do?

coop refi's are much less expensive than condo's. I will have recovered the total expense in 2 years.

nada, where do you see an index for rents which compares the same apartments like SE condo index does?