2005 Prices again... actually, worse.

2004 was last time we were that low in real dollars.

I posted the month by month by size last month:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27961-help-me-interpret-miller-samuel-data

(and Noah, yes we know, it's a lagging indicator)

Yeah, I missed the threads. Looks like it went by with barely a mention (capitulation)?

We are at 2005 medians... 2004 in real dollars. Step back and think of the gravity of that...

(and Noah, yes we know, it's a lagging indicator)

but stocks are down.. that's a leading indicator

OK - just try finding an apartment you like that's going for 2005 prices. Don't think it will happen

And inventory is still highly constrained:
http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=&mindt=05%2F15%2F2011&maxdt=05%2F14%2F2012&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2010%2F05%2F15

Makes no sense. I've given up trying to understand this market.

Actually I take that back. I do understand it - Manhattan is different.

ph41, you gotta go to yorkville or brooks' sutton place to find deals like that.

The thing is...boat loads of props have gone into contract in the last 3 mos.
I'll wait to see their closing costs but from where I sit it looks like the market is heading out of it's slump.

Doubt it, nothing in the NY economy has improved
just a lot if cheerleaders

For those new to the SE board, this may be a good time to share the "Official List of Reasons Why Manhattan is Different":

- they're not making any more land
- everyone wants to live here (or as hol4 would say: Grindr requires density)
- Brazilians, Russians, Chinese (insert foreigner of choice) are stepping in to support the market
- strict coop boards have prevented over-leveraging
- there is little or no foreclosure activity in prime manhattan
- there is still lots of pent-up demand from buyers wanting to trade up
- interest rates are at historic lows
- jumbo lenders are re-entering the market
- quality of life has changed greatly since prior busts, eg mid-1990s
- NYC economy is more diversified and thus less reliant on Wall Street to support prices
- most people will always prefer to own despite high price/income or price/rent ratios
- NYC real estate is always a great long-term investment
- Barbara Corcoran said so
- and the number one reason why Manhattan is different - OUR banks are too big to fail!

All the reasons why manhattan RE has not appriciated in 7 years

May I suggest people look at per sq ft price at median apt price has many-many issues. SE index is a good one.

Sure you may suggest that, but that is a flawed way to measure real estate prices. Ie. When a Russian ot Mexican billionaire buys property in manhattan with no regard for price, it will skew the pricing. And it will have a bigger impact when transaction volume is low as in has been the last few years.

Do Russians or Mexicans buy into Sutton Place?

Obviously not in ME

no, not in you.

are you guys talking about manhattan ny? the current price is at all-time history high

The apts in my price range went for much higher that 2009/10 prices -- and rather quickly this spring. I still think this is an anomaly effect of pent up demand meeting a very vibrant stock market. But as the rally fades and the US debt and Euro debt and Japan debt and China landing converge there may not be a repeat next spring.

Manhattan prices are actually up 31% FROM PEAK!!

Chelsea Stratus at 101 West 24th Street » #21E
StreetEasy History
11/07/2007 Previously Listed by Douglas Elliman at $1,455,000.
08/01/2008 Douglas Elliman Listing sold.
08/01/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $(insiders only)
03/16/2012 Listed by Douglas Elliman at $1,900,000.
04/10/2012 Listing entered contract.
05/01/2012 Listing sold.
05/01/2012 Sale recorded for $1,900,000.

Like some others here I believe one example proves a market trend.

>-they're not making any more land
....is a non factor as "sky is the limit."

Couldnt disagree more on median numbers having many many issues. The field is large enough that the difference between median and average is negligable. If your limited to 4 bedroom + sales only, sure.

I do think foreign buyers are having a greater affect than some will give credit for. Yet others will ignore salaries aren't increasing,and unemployment isn't really decreasing, an impact that has been masked by low interest rates, banks that are too big to fail, and a wait and see attitude on foreclosures.
Banks don't like to own real estate. It means they have to pay the taxes and maintenance on the property so the property isnt encumbered with tax liens at 18% compounded daily.

I don't expect to see much of any change (barring another stock crash) until the election is over.

"2005 Prices again... actually, worse. "

And by 'worse', you mean 'better'... for those of us looking to buy!

Many Brooklyn co-ops are trading for 2005-2006 prices -- not in the Class A nabes of Bklyn Heights, Park Slope and Cobble Hill, but in the Class B nabes it is happening.

Clinton Hill, Park Slope South, Ditmas Park, Windsor Terrace -- everything that is trading in areas like that are trading at 2005-2006 prices.

I keep meaning to compile a little list and post it here, but most of the interest here is in Manhattan.

But if the outlying neighborhoods cannot support peak prices, then perhaps we will see a "creep" of dropping prices into more central neighborhoods....

harlembuyer, you are pointing at a fairly lousy example...

pre construction price on tower in what was a nonexistent neighborhood at the time... and now the neighborhood is very hot, and it is the only sales highrise in an area of rentals.

i have watched that specific building, it is more about the neighborhood getting much better. eataly is a block away...

truth, look at the by aparment size numbers in the other thread.... outside of studios, they are actually down similar or more...

>apt23
about 20 hours ago
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The apts in my price range went for much higher that 2009/10 prices -- and rather quickly this spring.

Look at that. Honesty. Wish we could get the same from inododo. Kudos to apt23

somewhereelse
about 4 hours ago
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i have watched that specific building, it is more about the neighborhood getting much better. eataly is a block away...

Is eataly run by the Russians, Chinese or Brazilians?

Yeah, got to love those anecdotal "I can't afford". Julia, SteveF, have they ever been anything but BS?

Who are you talking about? SteveF and Julia aren't even on this thread.

harlembuyer is right, most of manhattan is 20%~30% worse than 2005 or 2008 price

somewhereelse: I thought it was clear I was being sarcastic when I said "Like some others here I believe one example proves a market trend." Brooks2 will post a $500 psf thread based on a single apt.
I use the Streeteasy condo index and Noah's data to estimate where the Manhattan market is.

the thread showed plenty of apartments the were px'd chopped and looked to be heading to $500psf. btw..
Noah's sh!t is useless.. a $90MM condo sale will surely skew prices.

if you are buying i Harlem you are in trouble

I check the measure the bulls were using to show prices were going up years ago... the medians... I also look at the medians by number of bedrooms.

The streeteasy index leaves out the majority of the market... miller samuel gets all apartments.

"the bulls "

Is that a trade group? Or an excuse for you?

Are you still afraid of Jehovah's Witnesses?

lol.

Yes, they do freak me out...