Open House Anecdotes 3/31

Sorry - realized it's 3/30 after the fact. I should really check that calendar.

I went to half a different open houses in GV/WV/Soho area. Interestingly, the ones in GV I was the only one in a couple, there was one other couple coming in as was leaving in the other. The only ones with traffic were in Soho and in WV, where there were 5 or 6 other couples/parties looking.

went to 6 OHs in brownstone brooklyn. attendance was good at the newly listed properties. I was the only one at a couple of the other properties (which weren't listed too long ago), and the brokers made it very clear that prices were negotiable.

A broker told me today that inventory was really tight at about 3200. I asked him "which half of the island are you counting?" and he looked at me funny. These guys will say anything.

lol.

dmag2020: I also made the date snafu once...you are forgiven :)
I went to one OH in the EV. Not many people (2 other couples maybe while I was there) but no one in or out when I was waiting for my broker for 10 min before I went in.

I'm guessing no one else has any anecdotes cause no one went? Could this mark the very end of the market? Are we all just tired of seeing the same old crapy apartments at crazy prices?

It'll be very interesting next week when we get the quarterly report on coop/condo sales. I'm guessing there will be a huge decline in volume of sales. The brokers will probably try to put some lame spin on it like seasonality to explain the decline. Is it just me or are the cracks in the market getting bigger and bigger?

the last few anecdotes threads have been fairly quiet.
The place I looked at already has offers, after 1 OH! Who are these people??

I went to a avg size 1 BR in Flat Iron today. OH was 12-2, we got there at 1pm. 3 other people had come before us and the broker signed his own name on the sign-in sheet. Kind of pathetic that they have to resort to that to heighten the perception of interest.

beeeeeeeeeep. That's the sound of the market flat-lining.

so who are these people making offers the day of the OH?

so who are these people making offers the day of the OH?

the imagination of the real-estate agent.

steve, I would like to believe that! In fact, I heavily suspect it.

It's unquestionable. Look at the inventories. Emigrant Savings is charging 9.132% for a 30-year fixed $1,000,000 mortgage 0 points. e-loan shows their best 0 point fixed loan at 10.75%. More for 1-year variable.

I'm away this weekend, so I'll be off-topic but fit in with the comments above. I took the Halstead NYTIMES brochure enclosure with me. It says on page 3 "Market Strength Continues";
p.60 "Strong Market - Lower Inventory" but has a total of 107 pages of listings if you stop at Riverdale and don't count their new developments or the five pages of "Noteworthy" listings at the end.

Or if you go on their website and see they have 638 listings in Manhattan alone, and they're half the size of D.E. and Corcoran.

iMom is right - the wind has just been sucked out of this baby.

Or if you go on their website and see they have 638 listings in Manhattan alone, and they're half the size of D.E. and Corcoran.

iMom is right - the wind has just been sucked out of this baby.

Ok, it was meant to be an OH anecdote thread, but as long as no one was at any OH's, I gotta think that with mortgage rates 50% higher than they were 8 months ago, can't the "Manhattan's clientele are too rich to care about price" mantra be flipped to explain why they don't care about taking losses? "They are so wealthy, what's a $400,000 loss? It's nothing." We all know that fear will drive them to sell earlier, because no one wants a loss, but its very conceivable. No its inevitable. No market swings in only one direction. Or does it?

dmag2020, honestly, I stopped going to open houses in 2005 because they were too expensive. I've heard all the "Manhattan's different" arguments. Heard them when I lived in Miami, too.

If you got $20 million to plop down on a pied a terre, you have no problem. But to borrow a French term, if your feet are on the ground and you need financing, how are you going to get it?

Ergo, why go to open houses?

Ummm, Steve... I don't get it (the french term thing), but I do get not going to open houses. I only went to two in my building, almost for comedic purposes. I loved the broker who realized I wasn't an idiot telling me the only way to go is to rent now! (only me and him there, one other had come).

pied a terre is French for foot on the ground.

I stopped going to open houses when there was a line literally around the block for a 2-br apartment on lower fifth for like $1.2 million in 2005, and when they wanted to hold an open cry auction for a 2-br apartment in London Terrace because they had so many bidders they didn't know what to do.

Look, I'm not the richest guy in the world but I'm not the poorest either (because it's Sunday night at 9:00 pm & I'm still working). But the only time I had ever heard of lines and auctions selling homes was at foreclosures. I said, no way.

Too bad - in a sense I missed a 100% appreciation. But no problemo, because the flip side of that is a 50% downturn.

Either way, this market is DEAD. D - E - A - D. No one even cares anymore. The world doesn't need a $1 million 1 bedroom in this century, and it never did. Good Luck to all....

Well, if you read my threads I've been telling people to rent b/c it costs half as much, and I only get ridicule.

Now that the ax has fallen, however....

Nitey-nite! I'll do the last 3 pages in the morning.

went to a few open houses in park slope's 4th avenue...novo, crest and argyle. novo started at noon and there were probably about 30 people waiting for it to start. i would say in the 20 minutes i was there, maybe about 60 - 70 people were in and out. that seems to say there are definitely people looking but the price has to be right...and these are priced better than most. 2brs/760sf for $565,000!

My 8-year-old daughter and I were the last arrivals at 514 West End Avenue Apt. 2A. Smallish 5Rm 2BR with brick-wall views on all sides. All the lights were turned on to make it look brighter. Didn't work. Just reduced from $1.25MM to $1.199MM. Price war looming, because there's a similar unit available a couple of floors up and frankly, 514 is a building people settle for, not one they pursue.

There were about a dozen names on the sign-in sheet. One couple was leaving (unimpressed) with their broker when we arrived. Three BHS agents were there. Two left at the stroke of 1PM, when the OH officially ended, just as we signed in; the other was eager to go too, and left when we did, at around 1:03.

The apartment made no impression on me whatsoever, except for one thing: this was first time I've ever been asked to remove my shoes at an open house. Somebody from BHS might need to explain to the owners the realities of a buyers' market - one of which, I think, is that it's bad business to inconvenience/insult the customers.

this is hilarious, steve and his followers (and lets face it, could just be steve himself) chatting away, telling lies about rates and open houses. buddy of mine had an open house on the ues today, granted first one. 20+ visitors and at least 4 seemed very serious about making offers.

i went to several OH in Brooklyn today and one of the brokers told me many of their apartments are coming back on the market after the bidder can't get financing approved.

Went to several open houses today. Or tried to. Two of them the brokers didn't even show up. One was for 142 East 49th Street, PHN, the other I can't remember. Also looked at 1 Rutherford Place, which was overpriced tenement building with lovely views of the park. Small and unimproved and asking $825K. Only a few people stopped by. Also looked at 77 Park Avenue, 11B and 11D. One is a 1BR the other a 2BR. There seemed to be a fair amount of activity according to the elevator attendant; 1BR asking 959K and 2BR asking 1.79 (after reduction from 1.84). While in the 1BR there were two other prospective buyers with their brokers. Sign-in sheet was about six or so when I was there. Apartments in this building seem to go quickly as it is a pre-war condo, but in this market, it seems a bit dicey to pay top dollar -- a premium over 2007 prices.

ccdevi, I assure you I'm only me.

And very, very well-informed.

This isn't about an OH I attended today, but a reaction to kam23's post.

I was one of the 1st people in the Novo Park Slope the day of the first open house. It was mobbed. 1 guy was arguing with the agent, I'm pretty sure because the he wanted the agent to accept his bid on the spot and the agent wouldn't. There was a long line outside (50+), and the next day Curbed had a report on some ridiculous number of contracts going out. I wasn't interested because a) it was so horribly ugly. Not just the low-budget-hospital exterior, but the matching color scheme and finishes inside. Not to insult the elderly, but it felt like housing built for them. b) the 2br I was looking at was about 200sf smaller than advertised. The floorplan didn't add up, and my suspicions were confirmed on site. The 2nd bedroom was super tiny, the master br was really narrow, the closet one passed through to enter the master bath felt cramped even though it was empty.

Well, as it turns out, all those contracts weren't out, or at least they weren't executed. All this time later, only 40% have sold and 10 of 12 listings as of March 17th are being price-chopped. Much of the original interest was from people buying 1brs who got good prices in the $300s. I think those were almost loss leaders. On 4th Ave there are 20 new buildings in some stage of development, nearly 1000 new units, and the first one can't sell halfway. $750/sf (assuming you're getting the stated square footage - careful) is aspirational for this place.

Not much to report on about open houses. The one in the building I live seemed to get a lot of activity and a couple of the units available on my floor had a bit of traffic.

I got a kick out of W81s experience about taking shoes off. I experienced that at a place on Thompson St. I keep meaning to check back to see if it sold. It really was an irritant and at least a minor factor in my not going ahead with it -- I just felt that I needed to rush through and was kind of annoyed. I guess like everything else, it's a balance of things, but I think any seller should think twice about asking people to take their shoes off, especially on a cold, damp day.

This says it all:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ahgWx1z6LFxE&refer=home

New York City Real Estate Market Slows as Wall Street Cuts Jobs

By Sharon L. Lynch

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- New York City's residential real estate market is showing the first signs of fallout as U.S. banks and securities firms cut the most jobs in seven years.

Manhattan apartment sales fell in January and February from a year earlier and new properties came to the market at the fastest pace since at least 2000, according to data from New York-based real estate appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. Transactions slid 6.4 percent to 3,250, while the number of condominiums, co- operatives and townhouses for sale at the end of last month climbed to 6,225, 15 percent more than at the start of the year.

I was in an open house yesterday. I was actually at the Novo open house, and that one had a lot of people. We had to wait a little bit for the first group to finish, and our group did not all fit in one elevator. I was actually surprised when we went there that we had to wait and that there were a lot of people waiting. So far, in about 2 months (all during the weekends) that we've been going to open houses in Brooklyn, this was the first open house that I saw a lot of people. Usually, there were other people looking at the open houses we've been to but at the max, probably around 10. There's probably one or two open houses where there were no other people, one of which is we actually really like, but considering we're not in a rush and the prices may still go down, we decided to hold off.

We tried to check out Argyle but not sure kam23 if you were able to go to the building because we spotted the building and that surely looked like not even halfway done. It's a bit of a concern some of these buildings, some definitely look like there's lack of funding. There are buildings that are almost fully occupied, and supposedly the building started three years ago and the lobby is not even finished. Then I hear brokers talking about pushing the dates on when the building is actually going to get finished, then some other brokers bad-mouthing other buildings. One broker pointed out another building, saying that she does not see any progress on that building, and that once in a while she'd see one person hammering. Some of these comments are just out of the blue, and unsolicited, but quite an eye-opener.

I'm an agent and I didn't have an OH yesterday -- just one private showing -- so I could swing by the Observer-sponsored condo expo at the Puck building. I got there fairly late, 2ish, and it was jammed -- I wonder if that didn't sop up some of the condo-focused traffic at least.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

I was at several open houses yesterday in the low 80s on or near West End. The apartments were each 2+ or 3BR places, with list prices ranging from $1.7-$2M. All of them were very well attended. Has anyone seen any slowdown on the UWS in the large 2BR/small 3BR segment?

Jeff260: Yes, the old classic six appears to have hit the ceiling for the moment. It depends what you mean by a "slowdown", of course. Some of the recent price cuts are quite dramatic, and there seem to be far more of them (and new listings) than closings or listings entering contract. The problem is, the buildings you are considering are almost all coops, which can take forever to close. So by the time we see any meaningful data on closings, the market has kept moving - up, down, sideways - for a good three months. At this point, most of the listings are still priced above year-ago comps, so any slowdown could just be a product of unrealistic seller expectations.

I went to one on the UWS, nice alcove studio that was a rental conversion. Great views, nice kitchen, great bathroom. Location was excellent (subway a block over, bus stop around the corner). The conversion seemed to be a bit spotty in some places, especially with the floor (there was a two inch gap between the floor and the molding in the corners). Also, the view overlooked a children's playarea so that could get noisy during good weather. Windows looked a bit thin. Broker said that the sponsor was trying to buy out the people's leases in the building. At that time, 2/3's are still renters which leads me to a concern of mine: I thought banks won't extend a mortgage if the owner/tenant occupancy ration is under 80%.

Went to another one by East 32nd also an alcove studio, worse design ever. An alcove studio with the alcove in front of the kitchen and the bed against a closet door.

Tried to go to another one on East 37th but the broker was not there and the number on his listing was disconnected. Bummer.

NYbylr: Policies regarding conversions and owner-occ percentages vary by lender, and even by building if you're dealing with a local portfolio lender that assesses the relative risk of individual projects. Can you disclose the address?

that says it all steve? that says the market is slowing, I have no argument there. you and your cronies are saying its DEAD, and quoting made up rates, etc to "prove" it.

This is a fairly old experience, but I think it's relevant. I went to see the Brownstone Lane II townhouses this past summer (two times with open houses, one time I took my broker also to an open house, over a six week period, obviously I was considering them). Yes, they are in Central Harlem but their earlier project sold out easily, and most of II sold easily as well. The four townhouses are still on the market even though I saw a good 30 or so people at each open house.

West81st: The one I saw was on 100 West 93rd Street.

ccdevi, see my numbers on the bloomberg thread. 9+ supply of properties on the market.

Dead.

NYbylr: There have been a lot of closings in that building, going back more than a year, so somebody has been lending money there. Halstead can answer that question (though of course you should verify their answer with the actual lenders).

By the way, did you already look at the other A-line unit that was just reduced? Lower floor, but the price difference is pretty big.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/189809-condo-100-west-93rd-street-upper-west-side-manhattan

Also, NYblr, if you want to invest a bit more time, you can identify the lenders by checking the mortgage docs on ACRIS. Here's an example, with MERS as the lender:
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/ViewImage?Doc_ID=2008010401353002

went to an OH in Carroll Gardens (Brownstone on President Street for $1.995M). Was crazy mobbed with a line out the door (and a stroller parking lot). Not sure of the crowd were local "lookers" or real buyers. The place was huge and an utter mess and many left unimpressed. Needed a full gut reno but would be a great buy for someone with the time and money . . . People are still looking based on this visit.

Oh BTW those 9% mortgage rates are for retards. Those banks have no mortgage businesses. You can still get a 6.5% jumbo fixed if you do some digging!

Where do you dig?

Talk to a mtg. broker or check out the consolidators like Lending Tree, Bankrate, etc. There is definitely some BS on those sites with regard to "phantom" rates, but there are certainly rates lower than what was quoted in some of the posts here.

West81st: The listing was the one I went to. As to the mortgage lender on the filing, it appears to be a broker?

NYbylr: Sorry about that. For some reason, I thought the open house was at the more expensive unit.

MERS is actually a registration system/clearinghouse that acts as assignee for mortgages so the paper doesn't have to be re-assigned each time a loan or portfolio changes hands. I picked a poor example, but there are better ones. For example, Wells Fargo was lending there last fall:
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/ViewImage?Doc_ID=2007102601023001
In fact, they appear to have given Mr. Litvack a second as well:
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/ViewImage?Doc_ID=2007102601023002

... and the lender using MERS on the previous example was Topdot Mortgage (previously/also known as BLS Funding, Fastcash.com, Refinance.com, and lots of other names). Ah, for the good old days of Wild West lending!

I went to a random hodge-podge of open houses in Battery Park City and Chelsea on Sunday. Traffic was much lighter in BPC than in Chelsea, and brokers in BPC were much more likely to talk about flexibility on pricing.

Short summary:

Two units at the Regatta, 21 South End Avenue (731 and PH1V). Both units were a good size for 1 BRs, neither with a view. PH1V is in somewhat better shape, with a nicer kitchen and various fancy electronic hookups and in-wall speakers if you care about such things, but probably not worth the ~10% premium unless you like the idea of living in a "penthouse" with no real view. Monthlies in this building are absolutely brutal (close to $3.00 psf), so even at <$1,000 per square foot these end up seeming fairly expensive. Interest seemed fairly light, but I didn't see the sign-in sheets.

I also looked at 33D at 30 West Street, an 875 sq. ft. 1BR for $875k. This is a very nice building and a nice unit if a bit boring in terms of layout. The monthlies will end up being pretty high here, too, although closer to $2.00 psf than to $3.00. Unless you really need the ability to convert into a 2BR, this seemed like a much better deal than the places in the Regatta--slightly smaller, but a much nicer apartment (with a view of the harbor if you sit in the right place) in a nicer building for a lower total monthly payment. The unit downstairs (32D) is listed on StreetEasy listed at $1.1M. I'm guessing 33D will sell at close to its current price and that the owner of 32D is completely insane.

At 224 W 18th, I looked at 5C, which is a small/medium 1BR. Small building, just a few units per floor. Apartment really has no view and the bathroom has a strange undulating shape. It's in pretty good shape, and the monthlies are reasonable although there's a tax abatement rolling off so they'll get somewhat higher. It's fairly nice, although the living space isn't huge. No view at all, although the light wasn't bad since it overlooks some gardens. Priced at $950,000 for ~750 sqft. Seems high to me, and apparently other people agree since it's been on the market for a long time and I was only the third person on the signup sheet at the very end of the open house. On the other hand, 6B, which was showing at the same time, seemed to be getting tons of traffic based on the sign-in book in the lobby and traffic in/out. It's out of my price range, so I didn't look.

Finally, I looked at a couple of smallish 2BRs at 520 W 23rd. Similar size and layouts, one on the second floor with a 330 sqft terrace listed at $1.1M and the other on the 16th floor with fairly nice city views (eventually reaching the river) and a balcony for $1.095M. The 16th floor apartment was just listed and very busy; the broker called me today and said they've already received an offer (for whatever that's worth). Some of the traffic seemed to be overflowing into the second floor apartment, which has been on the market for a *long* time with prices slowly being reduced from $1.25M. At >$1300 psf, at the very western edge of Chelsea, they both seem overpriced to me, but I haven't been looking in the neighborhood that much.

KHD, I just noticed that the place we discussed with "2 offers at asking after 1 open house" 2 weeks ago is having another open house Sunday. And to think I actually thought there was a slight chance that the broker was telling the truth. When will I learn?!?!

Ten: indeed I have been following this too! I think something shady is going on based on some of my communications with my broker (which I want to keep off the board). Just to let you know: the claim is that there is still an accepted offer and just pending signing. I think it isn't going to happen and I am waiting in the wings....btw, what do you think it is worth?

As unlikely as it is that they have an offer (or two) at ask, are they actually claiming (“pending signing”) that they’ve accepted the offer, that it’s “contract out,” that the lawyer is billing hours, and they’re still holding open houses just in case? After pulling the apartment when there were no takers in 3 months and relisting it $30k higher in a tougher market? It just has bullshit written all over it.

As for what it’s worth, we agree it’s overpriced, but you probably won’t agree with me regarding how much. My “floorplan only” evaluation did seem a little low after seeing it, but even with that big kitchen/dining area, the bedroom is super-tiny. I would guess the square footage to be in the low 700s, more than 100 sf less than they are claiming. I know most brokers like to think that 1k psf is a given in any desirable neighborhood, but the walkup is horrible. I’d say they’re losing 80+% of prospective buyers on that alone. The unit is livable, but it’s in old condition, everything from the floors to the appliances. The high ceilings, yes, are great, but most people don’t want their bed in their living room, even if it’s up 7-8 feet, and the actual bedroom is too small for adults, it’s just about crib (or home-office) worthy. Having a washer dryer is, of course, nice (and essential given the walkup), but having two units mixed in w/ the kitchen cabinets and appliances isn’t exactly elegant. The common areas, aside from that one piece of art, are old and drab. I don’t see how this place even breaks $600k, but maybe that’s just me. This really seems like one of those aspirational places we’ve talked about on the board where you have to wonder if the owner would be open to a low offer, if you’ll have to wait for the price chops, or if they’ll eventually pull it. Or maybe that uber-mom who was giving me the shit-eye really wants it for her kid. I’ll admit it’s not impossible, but it’s extremely unlikely.

Just to be clear, I’m not questioning you for liking it. Layouts are a personal thing, I like a little East Village funk, and some people like the built in cardio workout. It just needs to be reflected in the price. I would try to get a real measurement of your own. Also, isn’t it the top floor? The building allows roof access, but there’s no deck, so I would look very carefully for any signs of leaks. I think places like this, funky with serious challenges, will suffer the worst as things turn down, undesirable neighborhoods aside.

Whoa-whoa, wait a minute....A broker not telling the truth? Are you sure? That's impossible! If the Pope finds out, he'll probably cancel his trip!

Hey Ten: thanks for your thoughts, I agree with just about all of it! Indeed, if we were able to get it, we would have to put tens of thousands into the floor alone and work on the rest over time. I agree it isn't the claimed size (are they ever??) but it is definitely a nice size/layout compared to what we have and what I've seen so far. For us it is about location, light, size and lay out. Definitely, it is wayyyy over priced at the moment, and who knows what future trouble there might be for the old place.

iMom: yes, the sarcasm is not unnoticed! In defense of my broker , he is great. But, the seller's broker might be among the shadiest I've so far encountered...maybe the Pope should stay away indeed! If anything, the seller/or seller's broker is scaring me away from it more than anything else...