If you can demonstrate market movement with comps, please post here.

re: joedavis (from prior page, on 125 CPN) - That does seem like a possible explanation (buying for long term investment, taking the tax loss) as a tax shelter. Not the sort of thing someone would do as a primary investment strategy, but if they've got cash they need to park somewhere (or maybe have some plans of living in it themselves in the future), it would make some sense.

well....it is in the Orwell house, so expect the evolution of pricing to be Orwellian at least.
Not sure what to make of it -- a) the 50% financing has to be a damper, b) the comps are not sale prices -- just asking prices, c) it was likely overpriced given its financing, on the other hand the Brian Lewis cat is prone to underprice and seek a bidding war/quick sale -- his style is show at a low price and then ask for best and final offers in a couple of weeks after listing. Does not always work, and then you see the property hanging on the market.
Interesting, hysteria generating strategy actually -- the buyers go crazy trying to position themselves, and if none of the bids are "high" enough the seller rejects them anyway.
As a buyer, I find it quite annoying - un-needed excitement.
On the other hand if the prices signal a free fall on CPW then exciting times are here.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/172807-condo-135-west-4th-street-greenwich-village-manhattan

Price History

01/25/2008
Listed in StreetEasy with Corcoran at $2,995,000
02/16/2008
Price decreased to $2,795,000
03/28/2008
Price decreased to $2,695,000
05/20/2008
Price decreased to $2,495,000
06/26/2008
Listing entered contract

645 West End Avenue #5F: Nice classic six in a good building; prime UWS.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/212771-coop-645-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-manhattan

Nothing really dramatic here, but the history on #5F does seem to say two things:

1) Even recently, a good property with a realistic price tag sells fast.
2) "Realistic" may mean very little real price increase since 2005, once inflation is factored in, and it may mean a real loss since 2005 after transaction costs and capital investments.

--------Recorded Sales-----------|--------Previous Listings----------
07/14/2008 #5F $1,495,000 -+0.0% | $1,495,000 2 beds 2 baths
07/31/2007#11F $1,980,000 +7.1% | $1,849,000 2 beds 2 baths
08/12/2005 #4F $1,355,000 -------|
06/16/2005 #5F $1,335,000 -------|

By the way, #11F isn't really a comp because it has a much better view and higher-end renovations. The interesting part of the #5F sale is the modest move over three years.

Came across some paperwork in the attic from March 2007 which was to do with Sheffield 57 at 322 W57th

At that time for sale
25C for 1.11m, sold Dec 07 1.140
33P2 for 1.695, sold Feb 08 for 1.715
21B2 for 1.985, sold March 08 for 1.985
37P2 for 1.75 sold June 08 for 1.70
28L for 800k, sold Feb 08 for 850k
27D 800, sold Feb 08 735
27v 875, sold March 08 855

The sold date is the date in property shark and I appreciate there may have been a time lag between contract signing and closing

""Realistic" may mean very little real price increase since 2005, once inflation is factored in, and it may mean a real loss since 2005 after transaction costs and capital investments.""

I think West81st has hit it right on the nose.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/350-east-62-street-manhattan

4B for sales than 3B closed for...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/232327-condo-433-east-74th-street-upper-east-side-manhattan

here's a 20% price-chop...

At the A Building, 425 East 13th St:

#5E, still on the market
05/07/2008 Listed in StreetEasy with Cantor and Pecorella at $655,000
07/07/2008 Price decreased to $630,000
07/30/2008 Price decreased to $550,000

#6E Recorded Sale
03/20/2008 $645,000
#4E Recorded Sale
01/14/2008 $645,000

So, at least a 15% drop since those contracts were signed sometime in 07.

Tenemental: Good find. It doesn't get much compier that that. Think it's typical of your area?

West81st, it's definitely typical for marginal properties. Average properties are moving in that direction (see my above post on 544 E 11th St.) but not quite at that velocity. This is supposed to be a luxury building, but it's had some known problems, so I'm not sure if it's indicative of the luxury segment.

"compier"

Great word!

That's a nice sized drop tenemental. I LOVE it. But so far there are very few apartments that are being sold for LESS than their original purchase price. If you guys with access to sold data can find some that are being sold for losses, that would be great.

I'm not sure what you mean, Alpine. That drop is for new construction in the same line with identical finishes. Whoever buys 5E will be getting the exact same apartment as 4E and 6E for a whole lot less a short time later. They're even better off because it's no longer a pre-construction crap-shoot. The owners of 4E and 6E just lost a ton of equity, and if they bought with 10% down, are underwater on their mortgages.

Earlier in this thread I pointed out someone at 77 7th Ave who looked to be selling his apt for less than he paid in 05, and I think West81st may have found some similar circumstances in the UWS.

The main source of data for all this is StreetEasy, with maybe an occasional trip to ACRIS, or a broker's site to check details. The comps here are available to anyone w/ a $10/mo Insider account.

755 West End Avenue #5C: Rear-facing classic six, renovated kitchen, just reduced for the third time, to $1.35MM:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/193165-coop-755-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-manhattan

Compare to:
--------Recorded Sales-----------|--------Previous Listings----------
07/09/2007 #2C $1,710,000 +0.9% | $1,695,000 2 beds 2 baths
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/72186-coop-755-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Am I missing something? That looks like a HUGE drop. The footprints look identical, and the maintenance on #5C is about 10% higher. #2C might have a small edge on condition, but 27%???

Two additional points on 755 WEA:

1) The 27% difference is based on the current asking price of #5C. Using the selling price of #2C as the denominator, the "drop" is 21%.

2) The broker for #5C is one insider who has openly declared a buyer's market (in his newsletter, for example) and he is advising his seller clients accordingly. As a result, his listings are staying ahead of the market, rather than chasing it downhill. Other brokers would probably put it differently: that his pessimism is feeding a vicious circle.

35 West 90th #6D: Still on the market at $1.299MM, a month after its third large price cut. It opened at $1.695MM:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/229809-coop-35-west-90th-street-upper-west-side-manhattan

Compare to:
--------Recorded Sales-----------|--------Previous Listings----------
05/16/2007 #9D $1,500,000 +7.5% | $1,395,000 2 beds 2 baths
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/61843-coop-35-west-90th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Both lavishly renovated, so condition probably isn't a factor. The original ask on #6D was egregious, but I figured it would sell pretty quickly after the last reduction. Evidence is mounting that my market segment may have time-warped back to 2005, at least temporarily.

It is interesting that the downward movements seen by West81st in the coop market is less evident in the 1 bdrm UWS condo market that I'm following. I suspect that condo owners have the rental fallback and can try to ride out the market whereas the coop owners may not have such flexibility. Maybe the coop market will have more room for bargaining and discounts, at least compared to condos.

For example on Riverside Blvd, from the Rushmore to Trump Heritage, I was counting about 160 apartments for sale. But I don't see sellers seriously discounting.

"The broker for #5C is one insider who has openly declared a buyer's market (in his newsletter, for example) and he is advising his seller clients accordingly. As a result, his listings are staying ahead of the market, rather than chasing it downhill."

Are you sure about that West81st? If this is not chasing the market down, I don't know what is. It seems to me as if this broker is NOT taking his own advice when it comes to pricing listings. 5 months on the market with a $250,000 price drop is the class definition of "chasing the market downhill."

3/14/2008 Listed in StreetEasy with Elliman at $1,595,000
04/04/2008 Price decreased to $1,499,000
06/26/2008 Price decreased to $1,450,000
08/11/2008 Price decreased to $1,350,000

alpine292: Valid point. I should clarify what I meant about Richard G.'s approach.

For one thing, where his clients are willing, he's dropping prices below 2006-2007 comps before most brokers. Sometimes it works, as it did at 515 WEA, where he got #11D into contract at a price his clients could live with, even though they had to take a loss; by contrast, Pamela D'Arc's two listings continue to bleed. Whether he was quick enough with the knife at 755 WEA, time will tell.

Second, Richard's pricing approach stresses positioning a property against its most plausible competition. That means the comps that matter most aren't prior sales, but similar listings that are still on the market. The goal, in a declining market, is to stay ahead of the competition and capture scarce buyers. The risk is that competitive pricing - and especially competitive price cuts - become a self-fulfilling prophesy of market decline: buyers figure if they just wait, more cuts will come.

hsw9001: Interesting. I don't follow recent construction closely, especially smaller units. I wonder if part of the problem along RSB might be broker games like this:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/17812-condo-120-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-manhattan

With so much product available in those buildings, the brokers who do business there have a strong incentive to fudge the numbers if it means they can obscure a downward trend.

Here is a real comp...sold in October 2006 for $599,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/31506-coop-west-111th-street-morningside-heights-new-york

And just resold for $575,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/184845-coop-504-west-111th-street-morningside-heights-manhattan

footprintguy just pointed this out on a new 20 Pine thread:

Recorded Sale
07/17/2008 #1202 $1,490,000

#1202 current listing:
10/30/2006 Listed in StreetEasy with Elliman at $1,490,000 (this must be the original new dev listing price that wound up here by mistake)
07/22/2008 Price increased to $1,780,000 (This is likely the resale's original asking)
07/30/2008 Price decreased to $1,699,000
08/07/2008 Price decreased to $1,650,000
08/09/2008 Price decreased to $1,495,000

So you can currently buy the unit at essentially the same price as was contracted in late 2006, but you're getting a discount once you factor in the transfer and mansion taxes you won't have to pay. Judging by the seller's panic there's room for negotiation.

Why no mansion taxes? I thought those were payable on everything over $1MM, for any reason, but well may be wrong on that.

Wow. At 4% inflation (or leveraged with even 5-6% mortgage rates), thats a fairly significant effective loss after 2 years...

You're right newbuyer99, my mistake. It's just the transfer taxes you'll save on, though the disount trajectory impiles lots of negotiation room or further chops to come.

tenemental: If it's an assignment rather than a close-and-resell flip, you might not even save the transfer taxes. The fine print is pretty important on this kind of deal.

according to tenemental, #1202 at 20 pine was recorded as sold on 7/17/08 for $1490000.
when i went to that open house on 8/10/08 the elliman broker said the open house was actually for #1502 which could not be shown because the seller had not technically closed on it. #1502 for $1495000 is being offered for what the orignal purchaser went to contract for from the sponsor. And this orignal purchaser will have to pay all the sponsor's closing costs .
I don't know if the new buyer for the resale will have to pay a mansion tax, however.
the mansion tax is absurd but since its inception it doesn't seem to have slowed sales--at least from several years ago....

West81st, StreetEasy has the ACRIS-sourced closing price listed, so it looks to me like a completed sale and not just an assignment. Could it be otherwise?

EddieWilson, inflation aside, the original buyer is taking about an 11% ($165k) hit coming and going.

Ouch. And doesn't this assume he gets the price he's asking? With all that lowering, you have to figure anybody buying could negotiate another 3-5-10% out of that...

Absolutely. As I said (but misspelled) above, the discount trajectory here is very steep.

Tenemental: Sorry, I missed the recorded sale. You're right that he can't assign a contract if he has already closed. On the other hand, footprintguy's post suggests that the offer may actually be an assignment of the unclosed deal on #1502. If that's the case, the sponsor is still in the picture and the apportionment of closing costs becomes a slightly more complex topic. Of course, at the end of the day, what you're willing to pay is what you're willing to pay, whether the money goes to the seller, the sponsor, or New York State.

Whether the seller actually owns the property might have more impact on the "discount trajectory" question. If he hasn't closed yet, it probably makes more sense for him to walk away from his deposit than to close and then resell at a loss that exceeds the deposit. Either way, a new buyer could benefit, because pocketing that deposit may give the sponsor more flexibility, especially with regard to closing costs.

to continue the discussion about #1502 at 20 Pine--
I was told by the broker that the resale would not technically be an "assignment" of the orignal buyer's contract but rather a closing that would happen simultaneosly with the first closing from the sponsor or one that would occur shortly later...maybe just a day.
I wonder if the seller has gotten an offer for $1.495MM ---I believe it is definitely the lowest priced real 2BR(NOT a 1BR with a windowless home office) on the market at 20 Pine --either resale or orignal sponsor units.

Another building down there--15 Broad by the same developer of 20 Pine---had a listing-- apt1930-- for under $800 per sq ft.
Relative to some other Manhattan neighborhoods there appear to be bargains in the Financial District...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/2056-5-avenue-new_york

4A just had a 20% pricechop

2056 Fifth Avenue #4A 1 bed 862 ft�
Open House: Sun, Aug 17 (1:30 - 4:30)
$550,000 now

closed sales:
07/11/2008 #5A $645,000

ouch!

Good find. It's interesting that, like the A Building (weird, exact same numbers here as the A's E line), it seems the Rhapsody on 5th developer would rather drop prices 15% (so far) than hold the units to rent.

I don't think I've previously seen a building's listing page where every unit had the proverbial "little black arrow pointing down."

once the harlem developments start the price chopping the wave will propagate -- the brownstone sales seem to be stalled out as it is....
time for eddie and steve to come out of hiding and wave their flags

has anybody had any experience seeing price drops at kalahari, graceline court etc? There are so many of these coming up that one wonders how they'll compete with each other.

all the units at 2056 fifth avenue now show price reductions. They look nice, but likley too high considering what is coming

hsw9001: I started an informal analysis of your sector, using 220 RSB as an example. I posted the initial results in a separate thread. Some weakness is evident, at least in the 1BR lines with sufficient data to establish a trend:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4683-at-trump-place-220-220-rsb-some-lines-appear-to-be-nearing-2004-2005-price-levels

has anyone figured out that EddieWilson and Stevejhx are the identical person?

Same positions
Same style of posting a negative article as worthy of its own discussion topic
Same argument style
Same style of rebuttal, interspersing the original quote and his response
Same claim to have worked at an investment bank, but seemingly not in the investment banking group itself
Same language style and pedantry related to language
Same self-corrections of their own posting
Same imperfect ability to do math
Same level of anger
Same reference to "they" and "them" as out to get people who don't think real estate is going up

what else is the same ... anyone care to point it out?

ESueCho: This has been a pretty civilized thread so far. If you want to solicit speculation regarding poster aliases, may I respectfully ask that you start a new thread?

Or at least not post it on 50 different threads...

This is definitely one of the better threads, and you owe W81 an apology for trying to hijack it.

Eddie -- you do not need to respond to it on each of 50 threads either...

You are right... sorry about that. Once I realized what it was, I stopped responding to it, and just reported it as spam...

Thanks for your input West81st. Responded in that thread.

Now on another note, I am surprised that 311 Amterdam is still available.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/266410-coop-311-amsterdam-avenue-upper-west-side-manhattan

There was so much traffic the first open house I thought that it would be gone by now. 1 year ago that kind of traffic would have led to a bidding war and gone to contract in 2 wks. Perhaps it is the sign of the times or maybe there is something else potential purchasers found objectionable.

hsw9001 - I haven't seen that one. It looks like it's only about 1000 square feet, the layout looks terrible, and the building is nothing special. A 3BR/2BA under $1.25MM on West 76th is sure to draw a crowd, but that doesn't mean anyone will buy it when they see that it's actually a smallish 2BR. BTW, if I were the BHS broker for that apartment, I'd offer the downstairs neighbor - whose mess is usually visible from street level - some nice window treatments and a couple of visits from a cleaning service.

I was one of the crowd at 311 amsterdam on the 1st open house. attractively furnished, but a small living room, no dining space whatsoever and as West81 said a mediocre no doorman building on a noisy intersection. Given the sq ft and the layout it is no surprise that it is not spoken for even though it is attractively redone. At $995k it may indeed fly, but even there I am doubtful -- a similar ground floor unit on 96th street sat on streeteasy for almost a year with multiple realtors and also FSBO

I haven't seen it in person, but it looks like the space could be improved without the bedroom by the kitchen. A dining room, eat in kitchen, or larger living area would have been a better use of that space.

JM / jd: I agree on the layout.

BTW, I should have written 75th Street, not 76th. I think the corresponding corner at 76th is even creepier, since most of the people who spend the night there are dead.

Here's an interesting comp, ~650 sqft 1BR/1BA, in a decent Soho building (though just west of 6th Ave, so not really the cast-iron section, which is more desirable, but still a good location).

2 Charlton St
15B closed for $740,000 on 06/30/08
2B closed for $605,000 on 10/24/06

Square footage is listed as smaller in 2B (625 vs 700), but I think this may be one of those cases where one broker is inflating the numbers a bit. Layouts look identical, and 15B appears to be a little more updated (kitchen especially). Given the difference in floors and 20 months' time between closings, looks like there's only been very modest appreciation here.

Also, 4H (~800 sqft 2BR/1BA), with appreciation at ~5-6% YOY:
4H closed for $805,000 on 08/07/08
4H closed for $725,000 on 04/09/06

Here is a new condo resale (nice sized 2BR/2BA) in prime UES. Same apartment originally closed in June 2007 (from the sponsor) for $1.475M. Price just chopped to $1.499M.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/161613-condo-1438-third-avenue-upper-east-side-manhattan

"Same apartment originally closed in June 2007 (from the sponsor) for $1.475M. Price just chopped to $1.499M."

That's a nice sized loss after the commission and closing costs are factored in. The loss will be at least $50,000.

Re: 311 Amsterdam, I wondered if condos being uncommon at that location that it would tolerate trading at $1200-1300/sq ft. But apparently not. The closest similar comp I know of is 200 W78th #2D http://www.corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&listingid=1165581 which closed at $927,500 and at $1000-1100/sq ft. We'll see if 311 Amsterdam will have to take a 20% haircut to sell.

I'd also be curious as to what 112 W72nd #2G closes at. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/234876-condo-112-west-72nd-street-lincoln-square-manhattan It has a similar 1.2M price tag but has outdoor space (which throws a wrench in trying to accurately figure out price/sq ft).

1070 Park Avenue.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/1070-park-avenue-manhattan
It's a 60%-down building, so the credit crunch shouldn't have much direct effect here.

Date ----- Apt. - Recorded Sales ----| ---- Current/Previous Listings --
ACTIVE ...... # 16A ............................... |↓$3,995,000 3 beds (was $4.495MM)
01/17/2007 # 8A $4,075,000 - 2.9% | ↓$4,195,000 3 beds 3 baths

Not a significant difference yet, but worth watching. Floorplan seems to be the same. Maintenance on #16A is a bit higher, as you would expect for the same footprint on a higher floor. #16A appears to be in excellent condition, and eight floors are worth some money too.

Some interesting ones from 45 East 89th - Condop on Madison.

Current Listing Apt. 17D ($2,095,000) (2 bed/2bath)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/320335-condop-45-east-89th-street-carnegie-hill-manhattan

In contract Apt. 27D (last listing $1,995,000) (2 bed/2 bath)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/215433-condop-45-east-89th-street-carnegie-hill-manhattan

17D is 10 floors lower and has (what appears to be) obstructed views of Central Park, while 27D seems to have clear views all the way to Central Park West, yet 17D is listed $100K over 27D's last listed price. Unless 27D sold for over listing, seems like a modest increase over an apartment that only went to contract 3 months ago. We'll have to wait and see what 27D ultimately sold for to get more clarity on this one, though.

And another from 45 East 89th:

Current Listing Apt 20C ($2,495,000) (2 bed/2 bath)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/231422-condop-45-east-89th-street-carnegie-hill-manhattan

Sold - Apt 21C ($2,320,000) - 5/24/07 (2 bed/2 bath)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/35428-condop-45-east-89th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

Another modest increase in asking over an apartment a floor higher that was sold 15 months ago. Interestingly, I can't figure out why the C line appears to go for a substantial premium over the D line when the sq. footage and views appear nearly identical. Perhaps it the split bedroom layout which is generally more preferable?

right back to where it was in January 2007:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/329482-condo-248-east-31st-street-kips-bay-manhattan?email=true

Ariel East now appears to be more amenable to expliciting discounting, after holding the line on prices pretty well. It's just one sale, but the most recent closing was discounted 9.3%. I guess there's only so much you can do by throwing in incentives and closing costs.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/152159-condo-2628-broadway-upper-west-side-new-york
Nice apartment, too, if you like that sort of thing. The identical unit, one floor up (#25B) can probably be had for about the same price.

Joepa: I'm not sure asking prices that are higher than previous sales mean very much. I understand that asking prices BELOW prior comps are not completely reliable either, since a buyer might bid more. I would contend, however, that apartments priced below their comps are much more meaningful than those priced above. I guess there's room for argument there.

Clearly, the ideal situation is to compare closed sales, especially if you can get all the terms of both deals. The problem is that the time lag on closings and filings leaves you with stale information, especially for coops.

Sorry, "explicit discounting"

West - I don't disagree. I think the significance lies more in tracing the current mentality of sellers than market movement. Until any of these things close, it's all speculation, though.

Here's one that also sold for about $200,000 less than asking - but the original asking was $1,100,000.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/179924-coop-66-madison-avenue-midtown-south-manhattan

Here's another big drop in a building/location I covet but can't afford:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/178098-coop-10-west-66th-street-lincoln-square-manhattan

cliff: At 10 West 66th, #19D timed the market perfectly. #12D and #20D, not so much.

I met Marilyn Korn last week. She's had a great run in that building over the past 25+ years. The party may be ending there for sellers, but she'll do fine. If you like the building, it might be worth getting to know her. For my taste, the ceilings are a little low and the balconies don't excite me - at least on the north side of the building. I think the south-facing ones are nicer.

Very dated lobby for my taste--

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/171-east-84-street-manhattan

20E for sale for $650,000

closed sales:
10E @ $740,000
8E @ $725,000

ouch!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/343216-condo-225-east-34th-street-murray-hill-manhattan

just closed earlier this month:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/105849-condo-225-east-34th-street-murray-hill-manhattan

for 1.2mm. Looks like a quick flip for a pre-transaction profit of 275k.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/157675-coop-45-fifth-avenue-greenwich-village-manhattan

Take a look at this insane pricing history. Talk about having no idea what something is worth. This broker was groping in the dark.

11/30/2007 Listed in StreetEasy with Corcoran at $3,600,000
04/03/2008 Price decreased to $3,100,000
05/13/2008 Listing entered contract
05/13/2008 Price decreased to $2,495,000
08/18/2008 Listing no longer available

mazdamp - what a horrible floorplan on 20E. I am kind of surprised at the $650K price, let alone the prices similar units (I am assuming similar floorplans) went for earlier.

Streakeasy: If I'm reading this right, 225E. 34th, 3E was on the market for 10 months, and finally sold for 20% off the original asking price. Sale closed 2 weeks ago, and the apartment immediately went on the market for $1.475MM. Forgetting the bull/bear argument for a second, can an apartment that JUST sold for $1.2MM really be worth $1.475 in any market? What am I missing here?

As an aside, I don't believe the listed square footage for a minute, not by a long shot.

07/31/2008 #5G closed up just 18% in 4 years before expenses.

Talk about sucky investments.

Here's another one in the building I posted about earlier in this thread:

125 Central Park North
Previous listing: 09/26/2006 #PH5 $1,705,568

Current listing (http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/189473-condo-125-central-park-north-central-harlem-manhattan):
03/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy with Corcoran at $2,495,000
03/10/2008 Price decreased to $2,295,000
08/02/2008 Price decreased to $2,195,000
08/20/2008 Price decreased to $1,995,000

This apartment has a wrap around terrace with stunning views...if I could afford it I would be tempted to make an offer not too far south of the asking price.

Love the views and the terrace of 125 Central Park North. Like the layout too, and the pics look great.

I guess my issue is the location. I used to walk/run/bike through the area quite a bit, and while it didn't feel unsafe, it wasn't pleasant either. Felt working class, which is fine, but not for those prices psf (at least to me). Maybe it's improved since, don't know.

Will be interesting to see what happens to this unit. $200K price drop less than 3 weeks after the prior price drop doesn't bode well.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/157-east-72-street-manhattan

10E for sale for $679k

4E sold for $660k in August 2007, so price is flat "at best"

I think CPN is a good idea if you have a time horizon of 10 years or more. It has beautiful views of Central Park and the south facing has much better light than CPS. The problem is that it maybe worse before it gets better. Especially if NYS and NYC budget deficits mean less police and more crime. Then there is that issue of the prison on the same street a block or 2 away. The prison may potentially go if CPN becomes better, but that is prob a 25-50 year time horizon.

515 WEA #11D has closed. See http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/750316

Here's the final tally:
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
08/21/2008 #11D $2,050,000 -2.4%| $2,100,000↓ 3 beds 2 baths
02/19/2008 #12D $2,275,000 ---- |
10/20/2005 #11D $2,150,000 ---- |

The sellers were moving back to the west coast, so they had to take what they could get: a nominal loss of about 5% over three years; obviously much worse with inflation and transaction costs.

It's a tough tough time to be a motivated seller.

Very interesting data point. Assuming the apartment is in similar shape than it was 3 years ago, no appreciation, and even a slight loss compared to 2005 is meaningful.

Is 12D comparable? I guess I am a bit surprised that the appreciation from 10/05 to 2/08 was only 5-6%.

#11D is in very nice condition. The problem was simply that they needed to sell; Geiringer dropped the price accordingly.

I'm pretty sure #12D is a legitimate comp. I never saw it, so I can't comment on condition. It was an estate sale, which usually means updating is needed, but that's just a guess.

I saw that one too. 100K less isn't bad, but I agree...it is a very tough time to be a motivated seller. Unless you can sit and wait or rent it out, you're looking at a loss. These people probably overbid a bit in an aggressive market. Probably got a good deal on the West Coast though, so they could rationalize taking a slight hit.

Did you see this one West81st?

Here are some comps of sellers taking a loss:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4846-prices-are-falling-apartments-being-sold-for-less-than-their-purchase-price

Riv_Drive: I saw #11D several months ago, if that's the one you mean. I generally liked it. It had some issues: no views, awkward bathroom access from the third bedroom, a bulky shelf unit that made the living room seem narrower than it really was. The kitchen is nice, but it's only "eat-in" if you have a very narrow table. Still, it's a completely legit 3BR, in very good condition, in a superprime location.

Alpine: Do you get the feeling a reporter has been reading Streeteasy?

Here are the numbers alpine292 referred to:

80 John St:
07/10/2008 #3A $590,000 Previous Listing (the Sun is reporting it sold at ask)
01/31/2008 #3A $720,000 Recorded Sale

Also at 80 John, this one’s hard to fathom:
01/26/2007 #3E $501,750 Recorded Sale
06/18/2008 #3E $272,500 Recorded Sale

515 West End Ave:
08/21/2008 #11D $2,050,000 Recorded Sale
10/20/2005 #11D $2,150,000 Recorded Sale

There’s the 2005 price point West 81st has been seeing on the UWS.

166 Duane St:
#8A $4,495,000 Active Listing
04/30/2008 #8A $4,700,000 Recorded Sale

342 West 85th St:
09/26/2006 #1A $1,325,000 Recorded Sale
08/27/2008 #1A $1,250,000 Previous Listing (pulled after 3 price chops, to be relisted after Labor Day, according to the broker quoted)

West81st, not only was the reporter reading StreetEasy, StreetEasy’s own Derrick Gross was channeling DCO when he was quoted: "This is just the beginning."

http://www.nysun.com/business/unthinkable-happens-manhattan-apartment-prices/84900/

"Alpine: Do you get the feeling a reporter has been reading Streeteasy?"

Well, the reporter did quote someone who works for Street Easy, so probably yes.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/4-lexington-avenue-manhattan

12N for sale @$299k

10N sold for $399k and 2N for $325k

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/172788-condo-2-cornelia-street-greenwich-village-manhattan

My favorite.

But admittedly, a truly AWEFUL layout, regardless of price. Nice view, light, and location though. But not enough to make up for such a rat's warren of rooms...

What about this one?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/194599-coop-380-riverside-drive-morningside-heights-manhattan

8N just sold for 465. Last year, 7N sold for 625. I think 8N was in worse shape, but still...

I'll take that AWFUl layout malraux...oops, looks like someone already has.

Another example of superprime UWS possibly returning to 2005 pricing: 110/118 RSD #12E. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211311-coop-110-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT .....#12E.................|↓$2,199,000 3 beds
05/03/2005 #11E $2,103,000 |

The "E" line lacks a river view, and the layout and decor of #12E could use some tweaking, but the $2-2.25MM price point is looking a bit less dreary.

mazdamp, if I am reading the floorplans correct, 12N is much smaller than other apartments in the N line, so not really comparable.

kgg:

It 'twas a pun (AWE-FUL - AWFUL).

But I can't believe it just today went into contract!!!!

mansion east flipper in trouble. not a comp - this is the exact same unit. closed 6/21/2007 for $1,475,000. 260 days on the market and still can't find a buyer - today listed at $1,499,000 after multiple price reductions.

This is getting too easy!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/161613-condo-1438-third-avenue-upper-east-side-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/116141

50 RSD: #15E seems to have been priced off #12E initially, at $1.45MM. It ultimately closed last month for $1.35MM, about 9% below the 2007 comp.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
08/26/2008 #15E $1,350,000 -2.5% |↓$1,385,000 2 beds 2 baths
11/06/2007 #12E $1,476,000 +5.5% | $1,399,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,300 ft²

Both units appear to be nicely updated, though the renovation in #12E looks more extensive and luxurious. Overall, a good job by BHS on #15E, IMO. The initial price was pretty realistic; they cut it quickly in response to market conditions, and got into contract before the listing got stale.

West81st, I love your input to this forum.

In this case I think you may have missed a decimal place. 15E closed about 0.9% below 12E.

Thanks, qqq. Sory if the format is confusing. The sale prices are on the left. The final asking prices are on the right. So the difference in sale price was $1.476MM - $1.35MM = $126K. I think that's 8.54% of $1.476MM.

My bad. I guess I was looking at the asking prices. I should know better than to question anyting you say. :)

It's interesting to revisit the place where this thread started: the "D" line at 215 West 88th. I think these are all arm's-length sales of identical units to non-tenants:

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
08/15/2008 #3D $1,673,250 -7.3% | $1,805,000 2 beds 1.5 baths 1,517 ft²
05/29/2008 #7D $1,835,000 ....... |
03/27/2008 #4D $1,579,585 ....... |
12/18/2007 #2D $1,685,000 ....... |

Down... up... down... Just goes to show - nobody knows anything, and every sale is a unique situation.

It's not all bad news. We bought an UWS 2BR/2 bath a little over 2 years ago and just sold it this summer for just shy of 20% more than we paid. Yes I know that about half of that was eaten by the broker fee and taxes, but we were still very happy with the outcome. We did not buy it as an investment property and originally intended to stay at least 5 years, but plans change sometimes. I know this is not the rule right now, but it is not all doom and gloom.

#5 sold for $1.3m in Dec 2007

now on the market for $950k

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/229-east-24-street-manhattan

ouch. is that accurate? it just says listed at $1.3, does it say sold at that price?

Looks like it didn't sell, and is now being offered at 2/3rds the price it was first listed at a year ago:

09/21/2007 Listed with A.C. Lawrence at $1,495,000
10/08/2007 Price decreased to $1,395,000
11/26/2007 Price decreased to $1,300,000
12/28/2007 Listing no longer available
05/10/2008 Listed with Halstead Property for $950,000

The Halstead broker must be on drugs. How can an apartment with 8-foot ceilings be described as "loft like"?