If you can demonstrate market movement with comps, please post here.

541 east 72nd...price o.k...small second bed and not to mention....a five floor walk up!!!!

Still on 4BC vs. 10BC, I think of 4BC as the last gasp of the bubble. If we take 4BC's $3.7M in April '08, add $x for a bedroom and $x for a chunk of river view, then we get more than 10BC's $3.85M in March '07. Both demonstrate the huge premiums people were paying to go from two bedrooms to three, from three to four, and so on. (BTW, 4BC went for $1.15M in March '99, but I don't remember whether it'd yet been combined.)

10023 - Also, PS9 is not ok. All the "gifted" students are white, all the gen eds are brown. Big problem. I agree 87 and 199 are good.

Most middle schools everywhere suck. Middle school in general sucks for everyone involved.

"it's not that 1+1 now equals 1.5 instead of 3. It's that what used to be 1 is now .75, and .75+.75 is now 1.5. Get the difference" --happyrenter

So, what you're saying, happyrenter, is that all apartments are going to go down in value by the same percentage. I respectfully disagree. I think family-sized apartments will take a bigger hit...a much bigger hit! Raising kids in a big, over-the-top expensive Manhattan apartment, sending them off to a designer private school, and employing at least one nanny and one housekeeper was part of the whole gilded age, luxury "thing" which began in 1995 and peaked sometime in 2007. It's all about to unwind in a very big, nasty and dramatic way. It's going to be difficult to not only find families who can come up with the cash to buy these multi-million dollar units with $6,000/month maintenance bills, but it's going to be difficult to get families who bought into this now outdated lifestyle to want to stay put! What we'll see is the worst of all worlds...extreme over-supply coupled with extreme under-demand. So, perhaps family apartments might trade at $700/sq. foot, but prime classic 6s may go for $900/sq. foot. So, no way will it make sense for a classic 6 dweller to buy out their neighbor...$1.8M+$1.8M will only sell for $2.8 million, NOT $3.6M!

actually, mrsblogs, you need some help with your math. i did not say that all apartments are going down in value by the same percentage. look at my math. before, 1+1 equaled 3. now, the smaller apartments have declined by 25%--that is, to .75. but the bigger apartment has declined 50%--that is, to 1.5.

you should make sure your math is on point before making your arguments. i agree that there is price compression, but i think there is overall decline as well. that;s my point.

mrs - So, what you're saying, happyrenter, is that all apartments are going to go down in value by the same percentage. I respectfully disagree. I think family-sized apartments will take a bigger hit...a much bigger hit! Raising kids in a big, over-the-top expensive Manhattan apartment, sending them off to a designer private school, and employing at least one nanny and one housekeeper was part of the whole gilded age, luxury "thing" which began in 1995 and peaked sometime in 2007. It's all about to unwind in a very big, nasty and dramatic way. It's going to be difficult to not only find families who can come up with the cash to buy these multi-million dollar units with $6,000/month maintenance bills, but it's going to be difficult to get families who bought into this now outdated lifestyle to want to stay put! What we'll see is the worst of all worlds...extreme over-supply coupled with extreme under-demand. So, perhaps family apartments might trade at $700/sq. foot, but prime classic 6s may go for $900/sq. foot. So, no way will it make sense for a classic 6 dweller to buy out their neighbor...$1.8M+$1.8M will only sell for $2.8 million, NOT $3.6M!

I detect some envy here!!

Cheer up!!

"I detect some envy here!! Cheer up!!" -- happyowner

Perhaps it is you, happyowner, who is envious of those of us who do not own real estate in Manhattan right now.

i agree with you happyowner. my thoughts are well known.

I think the 5-10mm "family" apartment will get hit worse than any other sector.

The era of thousands upon thousands of Wall street earners living their annual seven figure lifestyles has abruptly come to an end. For the majority of families at the bottom half or bottom two-thirds of that food chain, life will be very very different. For the smaller percent at the top of that food chain, life will stay (relatively) the same. But it certainly wont feel the same

I think, by years end, the average solid but not spectacular six room and above co-op apartment will be trading at around $700 pft. Ones that are especially nice or with unique features will trade around $1000 psf. A very few apartments will trade significantly north of that. I dont think that even 15 CPW will trade much above 2k psf by years end.
You heard it here.

bfgross, I hope you're right. Would love to get a "solid" 2000-2400SF coop for $1.4MM-$1.7MM.

newbuyer: give yourself twelve months, sixteen at the outset (spring '10 selling season) and Im confident we will find a decent seven for you at considerably under 2mm

2107 Fifth Avenue: Four-story Harlem townhouse. 19x110 ft. lot. Built 19x46x4=3,496. Reno in progress.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/2107-5-avenue-manhattan

Sorry if this sale has been mentioned elsewhere; I didn't see it in the "Harlem shells" threads or the various townhouse reno discussions. The way I read the history, this house was purchased in December 2006 for $1.09MM, listed in November 2007 for $2.195MM, and finally sold two weeks ago for $780K.

--------Recorded Sales-----------------|--------Previous Listings----------
12/30/2008 (entire building) ... $780,000 | ↓$780,000 Sold 3,496 ft²
12/15/2006 (entire building) $1,090,000 |

A few additional details from ACRIS:
The mortgage on the 2006 sale was $1.3MM (119% LTV, probably in anticipation of renovated value).
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/Detail?Doc_ID=2007011001519001
The property changed hands in 2003 for $300K, with $25K down.
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/Detail?Doc_ID=2003080500579001

there's something else quite interesting about this, west81st. look at the buyer for 780k:

Itg Development Group LLC
482 Coney Island Avenue
Brooklyn NY 11218

there was a thread recently which quoted Joe Stiglitz arguing that the housing recovery will be slowed by speculators buying in at what they consider low prices in order to flip later. this is exactly what he's talking about. this building has now sold, but can it really be said to be off the market? it's been purchased for resale. i'm also very curious how far along the renovation is. these poor people, just an awful situation.

Interesting -- I was not tracking this since it is above 125th st. I vaguely remember seeing the listing at some stage of its demise. My recollection (if I have the right property in mind) is that the person who was developing this property had actually purchased several shells as a speculator and was trying to market them to 2 or 3 parties as pre-sale condos. I think they tried a couple of contractors at least since I saw the signs change in front of the building. I was approached by a realtor re another shell on 123rd st that I believe the same people owned. Perhaps, it is worth looking into that one again.
At first I thought you were talking about this rather interesting one:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06252008/business/rapper_dmx_in_fifth_ave__scrap_117053.htm
http://uptownflavor.com/2008/06/26/dmx-loses-harlem-brownstone-over-doggie-clothes-deal/

Happyrenter: Yes, that's a serious macro risk. I don't know whether it applies to this particular sale.

As for "these poor people", I'll dispense alms elsewhere. They tried to flip the building in 2007 for 200% of their purchase price, seeking an obscene profit on their massively-leveraged investment. If they just needed to get out, maybe they should have aimed a bit lower when there was still a market for their property. Their ownership structure seems a little naive too.

Your generous heart speaks well of you, Happyrenter. (You're like the sweet, brilliant little brother I never had.) But really, among the groups of people in the world who deserve your sympathy, where would you rank dumb, greedy 30-or-40-somethings from the Hamptons who lose their shirts on Harlem gentrification?

west81st,

ok, ok, you're right no reason to feel sorry for them. i was projecting something onto the situation that wasn't there. hey west81st, do you have an email address? i have a question i want to run by you but off of the public boards--it regards a couple of apartments i am actually interested in in a serious way, so would rather ask privately.

west81st@gmail.com

west81st, i just emailed you. hit me back when you can.

Here's an interesting one: 334 West 87th Street #4D

07/27/2007 Previous sale closed for $807,500
05/03/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $829,000
06/13/2008 Price decreased to $799,000
08/01/2008 Price decreased to $775,000
10/10/2008 Elliman listing entered contract
12/08/2008 Sale closed for $675,000

Down 16.4% in a year. Ouch!

bfgross,Do you think that Chelsea,West Village,tribeca and soho will drop to 850psf for any of the flipped new construction for a 2 bedroom?And if so how long should I wait?

anyone looking for a park avenue duplex?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/158190-coop-812-park-avenue-upper-east-side-new-york

812 Park Avenue 5/6C
STREETEASY HISTORY
12/03/2007
Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $12,000,000
01/29/2008
Price decreased to $11,000,000
02/26/2008
Price decreased to $10,500,000
04/14/2008
Price decreased to $9,000,000
10/27/2008
Price decreased to $8,500,000
10/28/2008
Price increased to $9,000,000
11/18/2008
Price decreased to $8,500,000
01/11/2009
Price decreased to $7,500,000

Recorded Sales:
05/29/2008 #7 8C $9,000,000 -7.7% $9,750,000 ↓ Sold 3 beds 4 baths

7 8C is the identical apartment right upstairs.

it looks like 11 12 C traded for $5,200,000 on 1/17/2006 maybe that should be their offer to attract some interest.

Patient09: Smaller footprint, I think.

NYC real estate is just in a completely different universe from a year ago:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/226564-coop-225-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

225 Central Park West Apartment 601
STREETEASY HISTORY
04/24/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $5,300,000
01/11/2009
Price decreased to $4,650,000

This means it is now asking 100k less than 1101, which is equivalent to 2/3rds of the apartment, albeit 5 floors up. Not a true comp, i know, but i think it shows how screwy asking prices are right now. no one knows what anything can sell for.

cool...don't know the condition..might be worth viewing to keep in mind as a benchmark for the months to come

11/12 C is a different apartment, doesn't have the same flooplan.

happ..I do! I know exactly what lots of apts "can" trade for, because I have a bid. Sellers just aren't there yet.

riverside drive continues its downward trajectory:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348500-coop-258-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

5D now asks 2.1 (the pricing and listing history is so convoluted i can't follow it)

Recorded Sales:
12/14/2006 #2D $2,445,000 -1.8%

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/356110-coop-444-east-75th-street-upper-east-side-new-york?email=true
02/08/2006 Previous sale closed for $642,000
10/08/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $699,000
11/13/2008 Price decreased to $675,000
01/12/2009 Price decreased to $625,000

Hell has officially frozen over. Makes me wish I was looking for a 1 bedroom. This price is absolutely unheard of for this building.

39 5th Avenue:

STREETEASY HISTORY
10/06/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Modlin Group at $1,299,000
01/11/2009
Price decreased to $999,000

Each floor at 39 5th has four one bedroom apartments--two front-facing, two back-facing. other than the low floor back facing apartments, all are lovely and about the same size. look at the recent comps:

04/30/2008 #7B $1,299,000
03/05/2008 #12B $1,100,000
03/03/2008 #5C $1,200,000
02/27/2008 #5D $1,250,000
06/20/2007 #6D $1,140,000

you get the picture. there are no condition issues with this apartment--recently gut renovated. it appears to be high floor and front facing, so among the best apartments in the building. this is a decline of nearly 30% from the peak comp for the ultra-prime central village in a truly top building.

also notable: the advent of the bold price cut. look at the price chops that got posted today. a lot of them are over 10%, and a fair number are over 20%. that is a new phenomenon. and there are hundreds of price chops posted today. this is really something.

happyr - likely you noticed this also but 5D is also being offered as part of a combination apartment called 5CD - see below

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348502-coop-258-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

That was also just lowered to $3.6mn

But if 5D is offered @ $2.1mn as you pointed out above and 5C was sold for $967,000 in '06 (see link below)

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/77210

Then it seems to me that the "right" price for 5CD is AT MOST $3.1mn (the asking price of D and the closing price of C in '06) and arguably even less than this as it doesn't take into account any work to be done and/or price movement in C since '06.

So then we get to the possible scenario of a 12 room, 5 bedroom apartment @ 258 RSD with direct river views for +/-$3mn.

Any comments on this line of thought appreciated - it does sort of foot with the developing notion that large apartments where there has been enormous price appreciation may come under some substantial pressure in the year to come - and yes I AM talking my own book as I want to buy one of these . . .

happyr - likely you noticed this also but 5D is also being offered as part of a combination apartment called 5CD - see below

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348502-coop-258-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

That was also just lowered to $3.6mn

But if 5D is offered @ $2.1mn as you pointed out above and 5C was sold for $967,000 in '06 (see link below)

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/77210

Then it seems to me that the "right" price for 5CD is AT MOST $3.1mn (the asking price of D and the closing price of C in '06) and arguably even less than this as it doesn't take into account any work to be done and/or price movement in C since '06.

So then we get to the possible scenario of a 12 room, 5 bedroom apartment @ 258 RSD with direct river views for +/-$3mn.

Any comments on this line of thought appreciated - it does sort of foot with the developing notion that large apartments where there has been enormous price appreciation may come under some substantial pressure in the year to come - and yes I AM talking my own book as I want to buy one of these . . .

happ: you are right, just saw my email. Price chops today were unreal. One of my searches has 81 properties in it. 10 price chops came today in that search.!!

liquid paper,
yes, i certainly saw that there was a substantial cut--in fact, a cut of nearly 20%--on the 5CD combination. a couple of thoughts. first, you are a bit off on the value of 5c. apparently it was a complete dump when it was bought a few years ago, and it has been thoroughly renovated, so it's just hard to say what the comparable value would be now. but secondly and more importantly, in a declining market like this it will likely prove quite difficult to hold the two sellers together. why? because one is probably more eager to sell than the other. so i wouldn't count on anything here. but even if 3.6 is the price, that's not too shabby for a huge family apartment with a spectacular river view.

happy (do u mind being called that by the way?) - working from that $2.1 asking price on D, in my mind a price of $3.6mn for the combination would imply one of 3 possibilities -

1 - That so much work went into 5C that it is worth 50% more than it traded for in '06 (3.6mn - 2.1mn = 1.5mn which is +/-50% more than C traded for in '06

2 - There is a substantial premium still to be found in large apartments (5CD is worth more than 5C and 5D if they sold separately)

3 - That even though $3.6 "feels" cheap to us (and it does to me also) in fact it isn't the right price yet. Whether these sellers know that yet remains to be seen of course, but it's hard for me to see the combo trading for $3.6 in the face of 2.1 ASKING price on what looks to me to be at least 60% of the total combined square footage.

3 -

Oops - sorry about sloppy typing there - that last "3-" ought to have been deleted. Has anyone ever seen these apartments? I have not as the combo was always out of our price range . . . now beginning to wonder a little more seriously about it . . .

I love, love, love this building. The prewar details that remain are gorgeous and the ceilings are close to 10 feet as this is more of turn-of-the century building. I was very interested in apts 12A/B - total rehab/gut job that closed at 4.775m, bigger combo. That was an apt on the highest floor, facing north and all the windows cleared the bldg next door, fantastic views. My partner refused to consider it :) and we lost a great oppty.

I would encourage you to see it. If 3m is a good price point for you, and obviously school district is not an issue, in some ways this is better than 12A/B (far less work) and more seamless layout.

Now some would accuse me of egging people to "go for it" but IMO this is a great building, you can't complain about views/light or architecture (!) and the only sticking point is the price, which in this market would be very, very negotiable.

10023 - you're correct, the school district isn't a concern for us. Glad to hear you like the building in general, and the opportunity it might present. Can u tell me what street this building is on?

I am at least curious about learning more about it if only to try to use as persuasion with the seller back at 161 West 86th (as discussed here last week). If this combo apartment is "worth" $3mn then perhaps that helps the seller there realize their asking price is too high . . . or something like that.

FWIW...I know both buildings, these are not comparable. If you are thinking about this wonderful building on RSD, then get that dump on 86th out of your mind. Comparing apples and oranges IMO.

SE corner of 98th or 97th. I don't really see this listing as a tool to beat out a good price from 161, as I think that gets a solid thumbs down me.

Bottom line: use the economic climate to get a great price on a great apt. Not a great price on a so-so place.

patient - tell me what you really think . . . don't sugar coat it please . . . (kidding of course & thanks for taking the time to add to my thoughts here). While I agree that this might well be a more desirable building, or opportunity, since I on'y want to buy one apartment, to my way of thinking they are comparable, and the mechansim to make the comparison valid is, in the end, the pricing of them relative to each other.

Somewhere I have seen something about buyers making contingent offers on several pproperties, and informing the selling broker of the particulars of each offer.

So for example I might tell all the parties concerned that I'd be willing to pay $2mn for 161 OR $3mn for 258, and maybe to make it interesting $2.66mn for the listing coming up @ 522 WEA that begins showing in Sunday.

But I'd only be willing to buy one of them, and the first seller to come make a deal with me gets my money.

The opposite in my mind of what the market has been like with multiple offers the norm for so many years.

Okay, now for the negative points about Apts C & D. You basically get 4 windows with great views. The remainder of the 20+ windows look either on the internal courtyard/light court, or the neighboring buildings.

In 258 RSD, the best line as far as light and views go is the B-line. Apt A isn't bad, on the top floor (the one that we didn't bid on) as it clears the neighboring windows and you get river views to the north.

i basically agree that there is no reason to compare this apartment to 161 west 86th, a far inferior situation. but i have seen these apartments, and i have to say i am not thrilled with them. set aside the issue of the absolutely attrocious decor, renovations, and finishes of 5D, which can be eliminated without too much hassle (although i don't know what you do with some of it--things that are in great condition but absolutely hideous). but the apartment just doesn't feel expansive. i mean, that apartment will have four rooms fronting riverside park with only four windows. that living room should be a magnificent room, and it just isn't. the west-facing areas are an unappealing warren of long hallways and small rooms. i just don't like the spaces. but that's me.

nyc10023, i totally agree with your point. now is the time to hold out for a truly great apartment--for your price range, obviously, whatever that range is. don't waste an epic bear market on an apartment you will like, use it to get an apartment you will love. but that doesn't necessarily mean to go for it now. the cuts are coming fast and furious, i was just blown away by the breadth and depth of them today. take a deep breath, relax, be very selective, and be very aggressive.

agreed on the pace of the downside quickening. Thanks as always. Back to the sidelines.

On the other hand, if you are an RSD afficionado, you realize that most apts in most RSD buildings don't have that many external-view windows. 4 rooms (and they're all large rooms) out of 13 with river views is pretty good. Also the 2 dining rooms, if left open, will also have good light.

nyc10023,

it's not the number of rooms on riverside that's the problem, it's the number of windows per room. that is a huge expanse of park frontage with only 4 windows. no matter what the exposure, it's just not enough windows for the expans--in my opinion, that is.

lp: a bit busy and havn't read real closely each word. But, RSD is a unique place, you either love it, or you don't. This is a good building, great space. Could be renovated into an awesome apt for the longterm. AT tHE RIGHT PRICE OF COURSE.. You really need to drink the KoolAid thought..kinda like 81st has...It is a neat place to live, but not for everybody, not even close.

patient - i hope u not selling all this mexican cement company stock i am buying . . . re: RSD - w/out having seen, I know that no matter how great the specific apt is we'd say, "gee we love it, if only it was somewhere else . . . " so this is not the one for us. however, as happy pointed out, there will be others, and my goal is to be comfortable enough with the mkt to be able to offer decisively, and then have confidence to carry thru to closing if accepted.

Mexican cement eh. Only one of those.

lp: cool breeze...good luck

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/361928-condo-236-east-47th-street-turtle-bay-new-york?

Price cut 16% after 2 months on market

shamrock, you left out the comp:

recorded sales:
05/06/2008 #22C $699,000

that would be one floor below 23C, the apartment you posted.

whoops, thanks !

Back to 186 RSD (Happyrenter alert): The #8BC combination listing has been reduced to $2.59MM, or about $960 psf. Apparently, the owners of #8C are still on board, having reduced their share of the ask to $995K.
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=988909

West81st, that would be $200K more than the owners paid for 8C in 2007. I saw the apartment and it is not in good condition, definitely not worth $995K. Obviously, the owners of 8B are much more serious about selling their apartment.

it is situations like this that make me wish i wasn't fixated on the village.

eao i agree with you. basically, 8c is hoping to dramatically increase their take by attaching themselves to 8b for the combination, and presumably if that doesn't work they don't need to sell (or they would be pricing more aggressively to keep up with 8b).

EAO: Agreed. Happyrenter had asked whether the combo was even still an option. Maybe the only way the combo deal gets done is if #8B is willing to cut their share of the proceeds (effectively subsidizing #8C's demands) to hook a buyer who isn't interested in #8B alone.

More carnage on Riverside Drive: The distressed owner of 222 RSD #5A just cut another $200K, to $1.9MM. That's $300K below the price he paid in mid-2006.
http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=730396

you know, when a serious bear market hits things can get bad fast. isn't it interesting that, say the 222 RSD apartment is asking almost 15% what it when for almost three years ago, but it doesn't seem cheap? if anything, it still seems kind of overpriced.

that should read "is asking almost 15% less than what it went for almost three years ago." that should teach me to type and watch tv at the same time.

bfgross - that's exactly what I am doing. More than happy to be patient. Goal is to buy by the end of 2010, and I'd even let that slip a few months to get the right apt at the right price.

81: shouldn't 5A be offered at $1,425,000 if these apts are 850psft..

patient09: I really don't know. Because 222 RSD is so different from its neighbors, it's a very difficult building to align with on-market comps.

Update on another listing that has been mentioned several times here: 755 WEA #5C went to contract this week: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364276-coop-755-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Here's a brooklyn price-chop preview with a free rent/buy analysis thrown in.
536 Henry st and 555 Henry st in brooklyn appear to be owned and renovated by the same developer. Very similar layouts at both buildings.
A unit at 536 Henry #2 is currently on the market for $725,000, post-chop
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/166075-condo-536-henry-street-carroll-gardens-brooklyn

At 555 Henry street, #2 was taken off the market after being listed at $839,000
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/106093-condo-555-henry-street-carroll-gardens-brooklyn

Now, 555 Henry has re-appeared as a rental unit for $3,200 a month!!!
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/446699-condo-555-henry-street-carroll-gardens-brooklyn

I said on the prime brooklyn thread that I love this location, but $3,200/month is in the stratosphere for a decently sized 2BR in the area.

BUT, since the owner is willing to accept $3,200/month, what does that imply for the price of both buildings?
At 12x annual rent, $3,200 would imply a sales price of only $460,800.
At 15x, you're looking at $576,000.
To get to the current ask of $725,000 at 536 Henry you are paying 18.8x annual rent.

I would be surprised if they could rent that place out for $2800

PLEASE READ:
To make this information more accessible and useful, please post future comp sets to the appropriate, neighborhood-specific thread. There are now separate discussions for:
- Downtown
- Midtown
- Outer Boroughs
- Upper East Side
- Upper Manhattan
- Upper West Side

Thank you all for your cooperation, and for your interest in this lively discussion.

West81st, did you really just relegate anything outside these areas as "outer boroughs"? We can do better than that. I would say the same for "downtown."

bjw2103: I just used Streeteasy's split of Manhattan neighborhoods. I tend to agree about "Downtown", which has nearly twice as many listings as any other section. The others seem pretty reasonable.

Feel free to start separate threads for Tribeca, WV, EV, Soho, FiDi, etc. (or whatever combinations make sense). Just put a note in the "Downtown" thread so people won't post comps there.

BTW, "Outer Boroughs" was a typo above. The thread title really refers to "Other Boroughs".

Thanks West, will do!