"White-hot Manhattan real-estate market".......

Wow, have times changed. Where is stevejhx and SWE?

fire crackah firecrackah sis boom bah hahahaha....oh bless you shillery

Maybe it will go up 67%.....haha

brooks2 - so when is the price of an average well located non land lease Manhattan apartment going to $500/psf like you say? I'm still waiting to see that so I know when to buy. It's happening soon, right? Any day now?

You are mistaken, that was w67. I merely pointed out examples.
Buy now or be prices out forever haha

"Maybe it will go up 67%....."

No doubt about it, it's only a matter of time.....LOL!!

Down 1.8% => "white hot"?

All during a period where mortgage rates dropped from 4% to 3.35%. How delusional are you?

"All during a period where mortgage rates dropped from 4% to 3.35%. How delusional are you?"

"But don’t expect that to last. Herman said that after three flat years, and falling prices before that, the market is poised for price increases “anywhere from 5 to 8-9 percent” in 2013."

If Dottie said it it must be true.

"If Dottie said it it must be true."

Who knows the market better? You or Dottie?? LOL!!!

Not sure why there is surprise or debate. The article is rather clear, and of course it is well known, activity in the last 3 months was driven by the 2013 tax changes. Interest rates could have gone up from 3.35 to 4%. Financing was not the issue. Tax changes were.

Agree with greensdale that "of course it is well known, activity in the last 3 months was driven by the 2013 tax changes", though I am skeptical that what is "well known" is, in fact, true. Per The Miller's numbers, there were 587 "extra" sellers in 4Q12; per the well-known-supposition, these extra sellers hurried to close in 2012 to avoid 2013 rates. Considering the size of the gain on which the difference between 2012 Cap Gains at 15% and feared 2013 Marginal 39.6% would have to be big enough to be a real motivating force, I don't think there were enough Tax Fearful Sellers Who Hurried to move the market.

I also don't think you can find their footprints in the market reports. It takes me a while to work through the factual basis for my skepticism, but patient readers can find it in my (long) blog post yesterday:

https://www.realtown.com/sandymattingly/blog/market-trends/in-which-manhattan-loft-guy-bravely-calls-bs-on-the-market-trend-meme-of-the-day/

Inonada:

Case-Schiller index values suffer from a number of disabilities and for years have differed
from those maintained by the FedGov or Fannie/Freddie using same property comparables.

In the case of Manhattan they are of only limited value because they track the NYC Meropolitan
Area, which includes the Bronx, Queens and Long Island.

Because of differences in the way NYC's sub-markets move, e.g., Fort Greene v. Harlem, studis vs.
3-bds. those sub-markest need to be tracked specifically, which Case-Schiller does not do

Thanks for thinking of me, Juicy! I'm here in Ft. Lauderdale thoroughly enjoying it! I just came back from Manhattan for XMas, and I'm happy to say that I won't be returning to live. I enjoy the slower pace here, & driving my Mercedes Benz.

I don't think the sales volume means anything, though - for Manhattan, anyhow. It's not surprising that people bought / sold in advance of the tax-law changes. Prices, however, were unaffected by the increased volume. Though I can't be certain about up there, down here the issue is that a) they slowed the foreclosure channels after the robo-signing debacle meaning low inventory, b) too many people are underwater to be able to sell meaning low inventory; and c) the few units that are for sale are priced at peak 2005 prices, and they sit on the market forever.

I think Dottie is a bit over-exuberant given the tightness of the mortgage market & the falling incomes in the financial sector. As I have always said, property prices are a function of incomes - it's the carrying cost, which should equal rents. They're closer to rents now than they were, and rents seemed to have hit their peak. The inventory will not matter if prices are not aligned with incomes: you can't get blood from a stone.

>& driving my Mercedes Benz.

No Porsche?

Happy New Year, Steve! Glad you are well.

Things are swimmingly, thanks!

wow! I actually agree with Steve on this one.

it's crazy hot, not white hot

Good to hear from you steve, glad FL is going well. Condo market is insane here, rentals are equally insane. No inventory and lots of demand. Not sure where it ends but you probably exited at the right time. That said, you don't seem like a Benz guy to me. Don't people drive golf carts down there?

This is my second Benz - years ago I had a 190E in Spain, worst car ever. The new models are great, though - I was going to go for a BMW but they switched to run-flat tires, I had those on my Lexus and a) hated them; and b) they're super-expensive for nothing.

I see the stats from up there, though I don't follow the market a lot. There's low inventory down here, too, but as I said it's because people are trying to get 2005 prices. Things that are properly priced sell quickly; things that aren't, don't. That's the way it should be.

Looking at rents from my old building, they are below where they were a year ago. As long as the Fed keeps interest rates like this I imagine that things will stay at about 30% below peak prices and hover till inflation eats away at the price. But these economic policies have never been tried before, so I can't be certain what will happen.

The problem with inventory is that nobody can afford to sell without losing money, and new supply is hard to come by. Hence the aspirational pricing that sits on the market. But as I said, well-priced properties move quickly.

Check out streeteasy's condo index. Getting really close to peak, not quite the 30% your stating. Inventory is silly low, if you want to sell now you will get top dollar. Buy now or be priced out forever!

I don't know about just the condo reports, but Miller-Samuel's report say that ppsf for all of Manhattan was

4Q2012 = $1,084
1Q2009 = $1,259
2Q2008 = $1,263
1Q2008 = $1,289
4Q2007 = $1,180
2Q2007 = $1,139
1Q2007 = $1,070
4Q2006 = $998

That's as far back as I could find reports, but on that measure it shows about a 16% decline from peak - I'd go for 15% - 20% decline from the peak.

It's not a perfect measure by any means, but it indicates an 8.6% total price increase in 6 years.

The CPI in that time frame went up 14%, which shows a real loss of 5.4% over 6 years, excluding transaction costs and taxes.

Not the greatest of investments, I'd say.

Oh - to clarify: when I said 30% I was referring to FL, not Manhattan. I think 20% is a reasonable estimate overall for Manhattan. Obviously not all properties are affected the same way - some could have gone up, some gone down, some stayed the same. But on average....

Therein lies the problem with inventory, which also happens here though not in quite the same way: when you count:

1) Real estate commission (6% of price);
2) Flip tax (for co-ops) (~2% of price);
3) Mortgage recording tax (for condos) (2.175% of mortgage)
4) Mansion tax (1% of price over $1 million)
5) NYC Real Property Transfer tax (1.425% of price)
6) NYS Real Property Transfer tax (.4% of price)
7) NYS/NYC Income tax (if applicable) on gains (up to 12.5%, after exclusion)
8) Federal Capital Gains tax (s/t = income tax rate; l/t = 15% / 20%, after exclusion)
9) Obamacare tax (3.8% over $200,000 / $250,000, after exclusion)

So as you can see, you're looking at transaction taxes of about 15% of the purchase price paid at either end of the transaction; eventually, everybody will get socked for the whole thing, either when they buy or they sell.

Of course - as with price changes - everybody's situation is slightly different, but to break even you'd have to show about a 15% gain, whereas what you're looking at is a 20% loss from the peak, and an increase of about 9% in 6 years.

That's what makes it so hard to sell: a lot of people would have to take a pretty big hit.

reny, would take ar's pov on this any day rather than that whooare dottie. come back to reality now, will ya...

>years ago I had a 190E in Spain, worst car ever

I had a 190E with a stick shift in the very early nineties, it was a GREAT car.
But modern Benz's suck and are overpriced junk. On my 4th Beemer and cant see ever going back.

but do you have a golf cart?

No golf cart, sorry. :) I'd rather die.

The European 190E's were different from the ones in the US - smaller engines, which was the primary problem, though mine was also a stick and I had no problem with that.

I got a C250 and I'm thrilled with it - though I drive very little it gets 32 MPG, great pickup for a turbocharged 4 cylinder, though it obviously doesn't have the torque that my Lexus SC430 had.

But it's more practical.

BMW was my #1 choice, FYI, till they said the run-flat tire thing, and you have no choice. That was a deal breaker for me, even though the BMW 316 I had in London in the early 90's was also a fab car.

BMW did themselves in with the awful run-flats. I've written letters of complaint to BMW but no one ever offered to help offset the thousands of dollars of tires and rims that our crappy roads have chewed up over the 4 years of owning a 3 series. My next car will most likely again be an Audi which still uses 'real' tires.

beagle, you're 100% correct. Nobody at BMW cares - their theory is the run-flats are "better for the environment," but I've seen no evidence of that. I really wanted a 3-Series b/c I loved my old 3-Series, but that said I'm very happy with my Benz, as well. As far as I'm concerned it was BMW's sale to lose, and unlike my Lexus which really didn't have a spot for a spare tire b/c it was a hardtop convertible, the 3-Series has no excuse.

In went through a set of run-flats every 10,000 miles, and they were $250 PER TIRE. It's a ridiculous and unnecessary expense, that when I mentioned it BMW said, "You have to buy high-performance tires for the Benz, as well."

Yes I do. Just not every 10,000 miles.

My 190E was american and if I recall it was an '89.
My dad at the time had a gray market big one..450SEL? and possibly it was an '88. I think the european smaller models were weaker and and the american bigger models were weaker than their respective counterparts.
And a funny story, my dad's transmission went on him in hicktown,PA.
JoeBob must have put it some tricked out one because when you nailed it, it actually used to chirp into 2nd and 3rd gear. This was the 4 door sedan!
(And when's the last time you heard the term "chirp a gear")
I remember staying even with a couple corvettes off a red light and the looks on their faces.

New milenium benzs are very poorly made and dont deserve the logo. THe higher end models are way overpriced for the car you get,and much better off with beemer, 7 series cars.
Ive had four 7 series but none with the run flat.

The 450SEL was no longer in production in 1988. Most likely it was a 420SEL. In any case, after my latest set of run-flats were put on last April I must admit that they feel smoother and more compliant. Everything evolves; so perhaps the run-flats did as well. If your dad was able to chirp 2nd gear to 3rd then maybe he had a 70's era 450 SEL 6.9 with the monster engine...it was the most expensive and highest performing sedan in the world during its era.

The 2012 Benz's were all redesigned with a completely new engine. A world of difference between a 2011 and a 2012, and I could have bought either. The new 250's are rated as highly as all of their competitors, and more highly than Audi's.

I wasn't in the market for a 5- or 7-Series BMW or their Benz or Audi cousins: it's just me, & I drive fewer than 2,000 miles a year. I just wanted a car that was comfortable, ran well, and would keep a good resale value when it's time to trade up. I accomplished that goal.

BTW I bought mine on 12/31/2011 - and got a GREAT DEAL!

All you have to do is be the last customer in the showroom on the last sales day of the last month of the year, and they will do ANYTHING to sell you a car!

You know your right Beagle, I think we got rid of it in '88 and my dad had it for 5 years and bought it when it was 5 years old. So a '78/79.

Before the transmission went, it never chirped any gears. Only after Joebob incorrectly repaired the transmission (or put in a shift kit or something) did it chirp both 2nd and 3rd gear.
I was just finishing high school at the time, used to hang out frequently with some gear heads.
Everyone got a kick out of it.

My dad was under explicit instructions by me and my bro to never floor the pedal under any circumstances in the rain.
(I dont think he ever did on sunny days either)

actually agree with stevie on this one, the redesigned e550s look great, feel awesome and have as much muscle as anything out there. only downside, buy the wheel and rim protection, thought i fell for a sales job but the best money i ever spent. 2 new rims and four new tires within a year. sport model is built to hug but not so much on nyc streets. bmw has same issues....

>fewer that 2K miles a year
Yeah it makes no snese to go crazy.

I put on @ 18K a year.

stevejhx finally priced out of manhattan? am i reading this correctly?

wow 4 years on here posting assume $5k rent a month assume no increase = $240,000 = Ferrari F430 to go with that benzo...

jk, all seriousness hope you are well in fl did u buy there or plan to rent it out? hi-rise, house?

>2 new rims and four new tires within a year. sport model is built to hug but not so much on nyc streets. bmw has same issues....

yep, the cars are too heavy for the light rims, particularly in nyc.

I've had decent luck with "Continental" for rubber, middle of the road price and they do last decently.

Don't ever buy "kumho" tires ( I always crack the guy up when I come in and say "don't give me those cheap asian hookers." Your flat tire frequency with no reason or proof increases 80%.

Pirelli is not what it was.

An absolute fortune but through my enormous experience with differing tire brands, if you can afford them, there is no better tire than Michellin.

I've been gone from Manhattan for a year now, ss, & not missing it in the least. I could have easily stayed - the rent was affordable - but I left for tax & retirement reasons. No income tax in FL, and since I make the same no matter where I live, that lifts about a $25k a year burden off of me, which goes right into my 401k.

I just got back from a visit over XMas, & I have no desire to return.

steve r u planning to buy in FL or just rent long-term (i've no clue of fl market let alone FTL)? did u sell the long island house too?

funny you bot mb then, steve. I amlmost bot then also, and my colleague did. post fukishima, with lexus out of the hunt, bmw and mb were neck and neck for #1 luxury car seller in the US. so they dove on swords at year-end--partner got his for nearly 20% under sticker.

always buy cars at month-end, if not quarter or year-end. dealers are often near strikes for sales incentives and are often incented to sell car at breakeven or less.

often, often, often....often

LI house had an offer, it fell through, had a second low-ball offer, which I rejected. It was rented last season, will be next season, as well, so I'm in no hurry. Mortgages are the main issue there.

Eventually I will buy down here - just not yet. Right now, as I mention above, inventory sucks so I signed another year's lease. Will be re-looking in Septemberish.

agree, michellin still the best for durability and performance.

Michelin? Thanks for the tip. Good to know. The BMW I have has Bridgestone run-flat which, as noted above, suck but have seemingly improved with this latest set. Then again, I could just be getting used to the jarring ride. If ever I'm forced into RF's again, I will definitely go with the wheel/tire insurance package. But WHY THE F*&% SHOULD YOU HAVE TO PAY TO INSURE SOMETHING AS BANAL AS A TIRE ON A $60000+ VEHICLE? OUTRAGEOUS.

cause the rims are almost two grand each without the tire to replace and the plan i got was good for 5 yrs. first year, 4 tires, 2 rims. agree, nuts but cost efficient for these vehicles if you live and drive around nyc.

pirelli's

>cause the rims are almost two grand each without the tire to replace and the plan i got was good for 5 yrs. first year, 4 tires, 2 rims. agree, nuts but cost efficient for these vehicles if you live and drive around nyc.

come on rangersfan, why can't you just drive without being a reckless asshole?

hb, just keep shuttling around in that goat cart of yours and stay in the right lane at all times you sorry loser.

stevejhx-what do you hear re the Miami market? Is it as overheated as people say?

>hb, just keep shuttling around in that goat cart

a goat cart, huh? http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/how-to-train-a-goat-to-pull-a-cart.html

No clue about the Miami market - I haven't been there except to go to the airport.

Is the Lauderdale market "White Hot"? LOL!

RENY - what is your point? and what's so "LOL" about it?

I fail to understand.

For condo purchase mortgage, PenFed vs Wells Fargo, which one is better?

in terms of closing costs?

For condo purchase mortgage, PenFed vs Wells Fargo, which one is better?

in terms of closing costs?