point of inflection in nyc sales market

1. in statistical terms, a point of inflection is the point where a trend changes direction 2. stochastic events are those where markets cease to move linearal and re-set markedly higher or lower 3. at least the better parts of the NYC real estate market seem to be experiencing stochastic price movements which are foreshadowing very sharp short-term price increases, i.e., anywhere from 10-40% 4.... [more]

1. in statistical terms, a point of inflection is the point where a trend changes direction 2. stochastic events are those where markets cease to move linearal and re-set markedly higher or lower 3. at least the better parts of the NYC real estate market seem to be experiencing stochastic price movements which are foreshadowing very sharp short-term price increases, i.e., anywhere from 10-40% 4. in my experience, that is often how the NYC sales market works: wandering listlessly for years and then rocketing in massive price swings to new highs or lows A. Evidence: 1. the Real Deal reported the other day that some developers of new Manhattan condos have begun to raise prices 1-2x/month 2. that is an extraodinary event, particularly given the large reductions in Wall Street bonuses, and one which to my recall has only occurred in markets which have suddenly begun to zoom 3. second item of evidence is Fort Greene, Brooklyn 4. Elliman's site shows all of its Ft Greene lisings in contract 5. with the exception of a 920 ft Sth Portland coop asking $1100/ft 6. which is almost 2x the pre-2013 price average for the area 7. Ft Greene now has a massive supply-demand imbalance 8. like much of the most desirable parts of Manhattan [less]