Has market changed in last 1-2 months?

Yes, although this has been an ongoing trend for the last year or more. But silly these days especially in certain highly-desirable neighborhoods where you can actually see people lining up for open houses that inevitably receive multiple offers.

I've noticed a big change especiallly in the last 3 months. I would add the rally in stocks to the list of drivers, as well as the usual suspect of expectations of inflation and higher interest rates.

There were people lining up for open houses in 2011 and 2012 as well. Good product has been in demand for a long time.

Supply keeps dropping: http://urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=&mindt=01%2F01%2F2008&maxdt=03%2F21%2F2013&Update=Update&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=

I started looking in January 2012. At that time places were still not getting ask and you could negotiate on new developments. Places were also sitting for a while. After a few months places were all going near ask and - if decent and priced right - going into contract after a couple weeks. I never saw literal lines waiting outside that are common now. Also prices have gone up a lot in that time. I bought less than a year ago and prices are up easily 20% and still seeing multiple offers on places. I truly feel bad for folks looking now. Must be enormously discouraging.

Lines at open houses? Really? Where?

The termoil overseas only makes dollar denominated assets that much more attractive.

Realdeal,
- The market is clearly hotter as you can see even from monthly increases in SE condo index, which has a lag of 2 months or so.
- However, I would like to add that we thought that the market was hot when we bought in mid 2011. We bid 7-10% lower for some places and lost some at full price. Eventually, we managed to get the place we liked at 4% over our initial bid but below the ask by 5-7% range as we offered closing date flexibility to the seller. You do need some imagination about what you can do a place with small cost - color scheme, painting, floor colors, lighting etc as long as the bones are good.
- Stock market is very strong which is a reflection of general forward looking economic sentiment. People are paying 20-30% more on average vs 2011 for the same electronic pieces of paper. Manhattan prime real estate is only starting to catch up and using SE condo index, I think it will be up >5% YOY at the end of the year.

See arby's thread on this
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34027-point-of-inflection-in-nyc-sales-market

Sold 9% above ask in 2 weeks of listing and it is a coop!!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/730718-coop-284-lafayette-street-soho-new-york

I started doing the buy&sell thing in Soho & Tribeca in '02. Bought & sold 5 places. I follow the market closely. In the past 11 years, I've never seen such a dismal inventory of spaces below 14th St. in terms of quantity & quality. Prices today seem to be slightly less per square foot than in 07. However, the quality of the square foot is really poor compared to 07. In 07,, $2.75M could get u a nice 2000sf space. Today, $2.75M can get you a 2000sf space, but it won't be nice.

Here you go, Manhattan active inventory & pending sales trends over the last 60 days:

ACTIVE INVENTORY -- red line, down 25.7%
PENDING SALES -- blue line, up 61.1%

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=Pending Sales&mindt=01%2F22%2F2012&maxdt=03%2F22%2F2013&Update=Update&t=Market Trends&interval_mindt=

Yesterday the market put 76 new deals into contract, 328 over the last week, and 1,330 over the last 30 days

The market is bringing in aprox 465 new listings per week and 1,800 or so on a 30-day pace.

sorry, link seems broken, let me paste again

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=Pending+Sales&mindt=01%2F22%2F2012&maxdt=03%2F22%2F2013&Update=Update&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=

Market seems to be have's and have not's. Most of the haves are new or newish downtown condos. Good bit of midtown and points north that are hurting as well some downtown co-op's that are merely doing okay / no huge run-up. Looking block by bock, consider One57 which is crushing it but then 1-2 blocks away 100 w 58th where owners are taking substantial losses. Or think about 205 East 59th and the Bloomberg building, again one is suffering while the other pushes price boundaries. When 432 park is built maybe Bloomberg start to suffer? Maybe the area will be lifted up?

http://www.brownstoner.com/blog/2013/03/brooklyn-secret-agent-lines-at-open-houses/#more-111739

UrbanDigs:

1. the Wall Street Journal or RealDeal reported the other day that 432 Park is selling
for between $6500 and $7500 per sq. ft. in its pre-sale

2. even factoring in the fact that the building's concierge desk will offer free mints,
those are staggering numbers.

3. the same source reported that many condos are pre-selling as much as two years before
the units being sold will be available for occupancy, and that they have achieved
phenomenal pre-sale rates given remaining time to completion

4. barring the occurrence of a major catastrophic event, and there are many that could
occur, I expect well-located Manhattan and Brooklyn real estate to experience their
highest rates of appreciation since Peter Stuyvesant bought Manhattan in 1624 for
$24 over ask and $24 over last prior recorded sale

5. if current trends cintinue, we are likely to see 30% to 60% price increases from
2012 for the most sought after Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods

1. we might not yet have experienced the full thrust of the price boom
2. the runaway sales prices we have been discussing are almost all winter sales
3. when the NYC sales market is historically weak
4. yesterday's NYT article is likely to ignite a buying frenzy in coming months

5. that, and the by now widely accepted belief that there is nothing left to by
in New York City's better neighborhoos, and the unattractiveness of non real
estate assets, could ignite the most fericious market-wide bidding war in the
City's history

4.

Wow, incredibly bullish comments RB. I like it.

Think I know which posters are going to overextend themselves in this cycle... And if you think the word "cycle" is not appropriate, then you are automatically added to the list.

uwsbeagle:

1. I am a real bear on the US and world economies
2. and to be honest today's market has caught me 100% flat-footed

3. if you had asked me in December 2012 for 1000 predictions about 2013, the
heliumization of the NYC real estate market would not have been one of them

4. but as an investor you have to be realistic and admit when you are wrong

Our landlord has gotten more aggressive and if others are seeing the same then maybe that is why people are buying.

Peter Stuyvesant was about 14 when Manhattan was bought from the Lenape Indians in 1626 and wouldn't become governor until 1647.

It is dispiriting indeed to see prices going up and concessions and discounts disappearing. I'm hoping for another 2009 and a "correction" in the stock market.

What happens when developers start building, more inventory would equal cheaper prices?

Triple_Zero:

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER

love to see which NYT link will spark buying.. url appreciated

It will be interesting to see if this weekend's open houses show
increased attendance or increased intensity and bidding because
of yesterday's NYT article.

There will be a long line at this one: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/840092-coop-37-west-93rd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

No doorman at all + no master bedroom + one shower/tub shared by the entire 2/3 bedrooms = not long lines

But look how many saved this open house.

Here is another inflection point. When the Russian oligarchs take a $10 Billion haircut on Monday (not including derivative trades) there might be a lag in high end apartments. If the $88 million apt at 15 CPW comes back on the market because the owner took a bath in Cyprus, how long would that take to trickle down to a UWS two bedroom? :)

no closets is also an issue but overall space is nice. Views must be soso.

>Here is another inflection point. When the Russian oligarchs take a $10 Billion haircut on Monday (not including derivative trades) there might be a lag in high end apartments. If the $88 million apt at 15 CPW comes back on the market because the owner took a bath in Cyprus, how long would that take to trickle down to a UWS two bedroom? :)

In order to take a $10 billion haircut, you had to have had $100 billion to start with. So you have $90 billion left, which assets do you liquidate to get your TV out of pawn?

here are the main factor you need to know before discussing NYC RE market:

1. the fucking obama and bernanke keep printing money and debt like there's no tomorrow
2. the corrupted government continue to ban foreclosure to keep the mortgage backed securities alive
3. more and more rich chinese want to move their illegal money to the usa
4. more and more rich europeans want to move their illegal money to the usa