Best Investment in Manhattan over next 5 years

yorkville near second avenue subway

http://observer.com/2013/04/moving-on-up-value-abounds-in-nycs-most-historically-glitzy-neighborhood/

Large apartments in the silk stocking district

Apple orchards.

No other thoughts here?

Arby's condo that's for sale

Think midtown and UES are due for a bit of catch up. Village can not keep on going up.

Where exactly are these kid friendly areas in Manhattan? Are you suggesting that UES and UWS will become popular with families? Bold.

I'm fairly certain ues will catch up. Top schools, good rest and with the 2nd ave subway good transportation. Downtown gets the Hype based on new construction. Zoning and landmark rules hurt the ues. New construction is maybe 10 percent of ues inventory but 25 percent or more of downtown.

"zoning and landmark rules hurt the upper east side"
how can that possibly be true? what are the most valuable areas downtown?

Central and West Village:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/lpc/downloads/pdf/maps/greenwich_village.pdf

Tribeca:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/lpc/downloads/pdf/maps/tribeca.pdf

Soho:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/lpc/downloads/pdf/maps/soho.pdf

I don't see any areas outperforming, as much as units in full service buildings with protected views. There are only so many units with unobstructed views of the Hudson River or Central Park, fewer if you only include full service modern buildings.

"There are only so many units with unobstructed views of the Hudson River or Central Park, fewer if you only include full service modern buildings."

So odd when people say things like this. Actually "full service modern buildings" with great views are exactly the buildings that are being put up in large numbers as we speak. In the last round we got Time Warner, Beacon Court, and 15 CPW, etc.. This round, 157 and the Drake Hotel replacement, etc.. There's a huge increase in inventory at the ultra high end, and we will see if there is enough demand to keep up with it. But it is just completely inaccurate to say there are "just so many" units with views in full service buildings. Supply can grow, and it is growing.

Now, it's popular to say that the supply of prewar buildings can't be increased, and in some sense that is actually true since no new prewar buildings can be constructed. But even here it's misleading. Just in my neighborhood--lower 5th avenue--there's been a large increase in the number of prewar condos with the conversion of the Devonshire House on 10th street and the Rudin conversion at 131 West 11th. On a more micro level there's a surging trend in combinations in the neighborhood with people piecing together several smaller apartments into 3 and 4 bedroom units.

You should look at where the big new infrastructure is being built, Hudson Yards, Cornell, Polytechnic.

>You should look at where the big new infrastructure is being built, Hudson Yards, Cornell, Polytechnic.

Disagree, just find out where they will be opening a new Eataly.

wherever greenie says isn't hot. He hasn't been right yet.

I just bought some Panettone in bulk at Costco ... 30% cheaper than Eataly.

It's been sitting there since November.

> I just bought some Panettone in bulk at Costco ... 30% cheaper than Eataly.

They do have good costcos in Mexico.

Btw, that isn't how you spell the country, greenie.

I bought a latte this morning. I'm up 15%.

My view is Tribeca and West Village will continue to outperform and we will be seeing $2000 psf in the next 5 years for apartments that are NOT considered new developments, the new developments may be much higher. Just look at London, Hong Kong and Bombay.

West Village is already way above 2000 psf.. (for condos). Soho, Tribeca, West Village will fare better then the rest if there is a recession, but I think they will lag the less prime neighborhoods if the market goes up as most people expect. I would say Chelsea, Fort Greene, Dumbo, Battery Park, Lower East Side (huge upside if it gets cleaned).

Yorkville baby!!

Team RE is sorta cult like. If finding enlightenment/$$$ is the goal, why do you have to keep kowtowing to the one god that has been found to sit in his own poop, fondles little boys and needs continual $ and gov't support to keep its house in order?

Go team RE!

$2000psf. That like w67 wishing apple at $20,000/share. It's as if gold was trading at $4,0000oz. Or the average broker making more than MDs at Goldman. A dollar and a dream. Go team RE

Tourist, Do you know that bpc is land lease from the govt which means that govt enjoys the scarcity value of the land rather than buyer sorry renters who own the building?

Yep but the deals are for 30 years I think, so cost not likely to change soon. But I mentioned it because of the WTC opening. It might be become less nice to live, for sure, but it will raise the RE value (like the South of Tribeca: Murray, Park Place, etc).

>because of the WTC opening. It might be become less nice to live, for sure, but it will raise the RE value

Well, certainly because this WTC thing is wholly unexpected.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/913551-condo-2-south-end-ave-battery-park-city-new-york

Tourist, Here is an example of what land lease can do to you. Believe the prospectus of all bpc developments have a warning that you are buying a depreciating asset as the land belo gs to the govt.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/698438-condo-2-south-end-avenue-battery-park-city-new-york

Another one. Sold not too far from 2000 sale.

> yorkville near second avenue subway

is that close to the garbage disposal?

>http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/913551-condo-2-south-end-ave-battery-park-city-new-york

they sold for 30% more than 18 months ago... What s the issue ?

Second one, you can rent those 2BR around 4k/month, carry is only 4k per year. That makes a 6.5% yield, sounds very decent to me (at least as investment property). Again, should gain value when WTC opens

Carry is almost $4k per MONTH on just maintenance and taxes!!!! You can get min $5k in rent for this easily.

yes, you re right, these taxes are crazy, it made so little sense that the rent would be barely more than the carry and I answered too quickly. But that s why that one was so cheap psf and those with lower carry are much more expensive. Anyways, this land lease thing is fully priced in, and Battery Park is clean and attract families. Not fully priced in my opinion is the opening of the WTC, I disagree with huntersburg, when the thousands of people who will be working at WTC (most of them probably don't know it yet) will start to try to rent or buy nearby, it will put some pressure on prices

With the assessment, $8728 per month outflow, after parking your 20% down plus transaction costs. Add to that insurance, vacancy allowance, repairs, "normal wear and tear" (as tenant abuse is called), turnover cleaning & painting, and a wise set-aside each month for capital replacements (yes: gravity, Father Time, acid rain, inflamation, Mother Nature, and simple chronic halitosis are busy destroying the value of your investment minute by minute, until it all has to be rebuilt. Or, much sooner, it's terribly dated looking.

Not to mention everything that goes wrong along the way, legally, financially, et c.

And the landlease is definitely not adequately priced in. That will happen as its end sort-of nears, but far ahead of it happening.

Manhattan RE to buy for an investment? Really ?

UES -- 70s between York and 2nd. The 2nd avenue subway is coming and you will still be far enough away from the Marine Transfer Station. There are tons of restaurants and bars. It is also reasonably quiet at night, which is an added bonus. If you want to live in a party atmosphere, its not for you. You will have to live through construction for 3 more years, but that's what makes it a good investment.

MTS will not happen if Quinn will not get elected...so yes, around second avenue till 96.

Unfortunately she is going to win. I don't want her to, but the tide is moving in her direction.

I don't understand why areas under gentrification currently won't appreciate a lot faster than areas already fully gentrified.

RandyinNY - I don't think she is going to win, the new poll has really weird results (Versus the latest of Marist and Quinnipiac),

http://pledge2protectnyc.org/2013/06/27/where-do-nyc-candidates-stand-on-the-e-91-st-mts/

switel....I hope you are right. If the MTS isn't built than the east side ---east of 3rd all the way up to 96th -- could really boom once the 2nd avenue subway it built. If the MTS is built, the boom would likely reach only to 80th roughly.

lots and lots amd lots of inventory on the UES subway or no subway.

Because UES is a big area.....big area = more inventory than a small area. How can anyone say that a brand new subway line is not appealing to a buyer. Having a new subway 1/2 block away when it used to be 5 blocks away. Wouldn't that make the property more appealing/valuable?

Inventory is also high because the subway construction is a mess..that is temporary. It is amazing to me that people can't see past that.

A brand new subway is very appealing. Some can't look ahead ...

"How can anyone say that a brand new subway line is not appealing to a buyer."

... nobody says it's not. Everybody says it is. And that's why the appeal is ALREADY PRICED IN, in anticipation of the big boom.

Why do you have so much trouble grasping that? Don't you understand how herds of sheep operate?

Again, I don't understand why the southern-most blocks of East Harlem would not appreciate a lot faster than the northen most part of Yorkville.

I mean, the northern half of the UWS away from the river was pretty much Harlem south until the mid 80s. Buying there would have been smarter than say Lenox hill if your goal was appreciation.

If you don't like East Harlem, then Central Harlem, HH, WH, LIC, Wburg, Crown Heights, Bed-Stuy...

What am I missing? Why wouldn't gentrifyING areas grow in price faster than already established areas?

Because the rich get richer and the poor get babies.

Russian oligarchs just don't have a thing for Spanish Harlem. Go figure.

alanhart is right I think. With the concentration of wealth, high end (>5M) will perform better than regular real estate, and high end is generally not in gentrifying areas.
But if you look at 2BR around 1.5M, then yes, gentrifying areas will perform better than gentrified areas

TheTourist, where are you from?

you're right, alanhart is right.

you're right, alanhart is right.

I agree with yikes agreeing with TheTourist agreeing with alanhart disagreeing with Jason the Stuttering Retard. But I disagree with yikes on his like of Michael Vick and dislike of elementary school teachers.

TheTourist - that makes sense. I am not thinking ultra luxury. Nothing that the the original poster says implies the question was just about ultra luxury. For what 90% of manhattan buyers can afford, the most appreciation will be in gentrifying areas.

And even given what you say - its not that long ago (like 15 years ago) that CHELSEA was "gentrifying" and only a bit before that all parts of GV. And tons of celebrities and super rich buy there now. So I still think even for ultra-lux, you are a bit short sighted.

Just google New York Times Chelsea Gentrify.

Is ZIP Code 10006 gentrified?

>jason10006

Well I tried the search, and then I tried with Lower East Side, and found the same kind of results for... Your search influences the results...
Chelsea benefited from the proximity of other neighborhoods, the gay community, the IT businesses (Google and start ups..). I am not sure UES has all these trumps.

>huntersburg

I am from NY... Leaved here for 10 years, my wife is American, my kids are Americans,.. TheTourist is just a handle after the Radiohead song, nothing to do with my status, will you plase stop asking "Why do you get a say as you re not from here ?" after each of my comments ?

Before you said you were a Permanent Resident. So were you lying then or are you lying now?

Also, do you have a cat?

>huntersburg

Yes I am a permanent resident, I don't see what s contradictory to what I just wrote.
I don't have a cat but I have fishes. What is this question about ?

TheTourist - I don't care that much, its just an interesting topic. We will see. i have huntersberg on ignore, have for years.

The plural of fish is fish. Except in the South where they are called y'all.

>i have huntersberg on ignore, have for years.

He invited me to his office to see where he worked. When I declined, he put me on ignore.

>huntersburg

thank you for the grammar correction. I certainly (still) have a lot to learn there, including from you, and probably much more than on RE. That said, the day where you display curiosity and interest and get to speak and write as well as me a foreign language, we will have a chat in that language... In the meantime, let's keep it gentrified, and about RE please

Gentlemanly.

Tourist, Did you get a license to treat former Bellevue patients?

Hey hey, it's 300_Mercer, the "adult" who still uses a post-college dorm address as his handle.

So Luca Brazi is sleeping with the fish not the fishes?

alanhart....Regarding pricing near the 2nd avenue subway, you say "the appeal is ALREADY PRICED IN, in anticipation of the big boom."

I couldn't disagree with you more. Prices will rise as the completion date nears, but there are tons of deals there right now and I have found that few have the foresight and patience to wait the 3 years.

Three years! Omfg. That means RE gotta go up 12% plus 6% in transaction cost and mortgages gotta be a 100yr lows for 3yrs!

Or you could be up 6% in a day in apple. w/ $9.99 in transaction cost. In three yrs apple will generate $90 in earnings or 23% cash generated based on my $390 in cost.

Go Team RE. 20 yr hold periods and 100yr train plans to make 1% above inflation. Go Team RE!!!!

If you can suffer the indignity of living in a construction zone for the next few years, you will aboslutely kill it buying RE on the UES side. It's pretty decrepit east of 2nd ave...can only get better.

I agree. The construction and such definitely keep people away from 2nd ave as of now. I think more people than not are short sighted enough that it won't change until AFTER it opens. I have lived here long enough to remember how market rate apartments became more more desirable on Roosevelt Island 5 blocks north or south of the F train only AFTER it opened there, not before. For example.

so what about the waste transfer station. Will the garbage offset the subway in the 85-95 streets in yorkville then?

See, that's exactly why I buy stock in ice cream companies in January. Nobody can anticipate that sales will spike in the summer, except us few extra-smart people who can figure out future demand.

Then I sell in October, for a quick killing. After my transaction costs and renovation/repair expenses. And probably a few months of paying maintenance for the empty pint container while it's empty, before closing.

alanhart....do your calculations factor in the money you throw away on rent?

LLLAA...you may be right with 85th street and above. I would try to stick to the 70s east of 2nd. That is your best bet for return in my opinion.

>See, that's exactly why I buy stock in ice cream companies in January. Nobody can anticipate that sales will spike in the summer, except us few extra-smart people who can figure out future demand.

Kids eat more ice cream in the summer, but adults do in the winter.

"http://observer.com/2013/04/moving-on-up-value-abounds-in-nycs-most-historically-glitzy-neighborhood/"

I've been saying this for years...