Manhattan at 2004 Prices?

Sorry, that should read "That puts us back at prices from Q1 2005 or Q*4* 2004"

The quick analysis... Median Q1 2005... $705k according to Miller Samuel. CIP-adjusted, that is 864,828.66 US Dollars of 2013... well above the 829,000 current median. Q4 was 605k, 742,157.93 in 2012 US dollars. So we're right in between the two...

Considering the job attrition in the Metroplitan area this reflects two things - foreign investment and the fed pumping up the economy. Where would prices be if the fed had let Wall Street take its due course?

But the FED didn't let WS take its "due course" and the FED did pump and foreign investment is alive and well so what's your point? And what job attrition are you referring to? The decades long hollowing out of the manufacturing sector or the recent cut back by WS firms?

SWE, FYI it's currently the same as mid-2004 inflation-adjusted using the SE condo index.

anyone have handy this analysis for the s&p?

Is it fair to use lagging and incomplete median sales from Q1_2013 to assess the state of the current market and say we are trading back at 200x levels? I wouldnt think so. The median #s from q3-2008 to q1-2009 are very strong, yet we all know the state of the market at that time was anything but.

lets just note a few things about median sales #s

1. they are lagging and reflect a market where those deals were signed aprox 4-6+ months ago.
2. they are incomplete -- to properly assess q1_2013 it is strongly advised to wait aprox 90 days for all sales to be publicly filed that closed between jan1 and march31. Id estimate the sample size as of April 1st, the date most Q1 reports are published, to be 55-60% complete.
3. median stats are impacted by what types/size of properties close, and when, and when they get filed to be included in the report.

Add these main points up and I dont think its fair to translate median stats from Q1 to assess the state of the current marketplace. Otherwise you will be wondering why bids at 2004 levels are not getting hit/accepted.

just my 2 cents.

The SE Index is a more accurate gauge of price action and that is properly set to a lag, although its more like a 60-day lag, but thats certainly better than no lag. I would expect the April SE # to continue to rise, but that wont come out until July or so as SE system waits for sales to file in before publishing that #. Ill be curious to see what it shows.

In the field, it certainly feels like bids need to be closer to late 2006, early 2007 levels to have a chance. In submarkets that historically outpeform (tribeca, soho, villages, etc), it feels like peak with multiple bids competing against each other for quality/well priced product. Thats what I see in the field with our buyer clients, for what its worth

Two points I was pointing towards. As the fed pumped things up there will be a reckoning when they stop - how sharp and how severed depends on how they respons.

And Wall Street (a big support of Manhattan Real Estate) has lightened up. Physicians are earning less.

Manhattan is really strong now because the foreign money and empty nest baby boomers joined in right when the fed helped.

Can't predict the future; but some of the rise (till now) has been artificial.

it's just money and debt printing.

nothing has improved but stock market is up 50% so far, that only means your money savings are shrinking by a half

Sorry Eriegel but that is your conservative bias dictating how you want to view the world. The FED is doing what it has been doing since the beginning of the last century. It is manipulating interest rates to change behavior. You (and other conservatives) choose to see this as something nefarious because you don't trust governement, hate Democrats, and/or have some kind of fetish for free markets even though markets have never been free. There is no morality play with the market, no normative principle behind it. True conservatives like Richard Posner have come to understand that the market just is, it will devour its young if left to its own devices. Similar to the Borg or the Terminator it will just push forward. And in a fully integrated financial world, with a $100 TRILLION dollar shawdow banking system, a collapse would mean we would go back to the stone ages.

You have my political profile very different from what it is.

I was using you more as a representative view on the value of "free markets." Sorry for ascribing my comments to you personally.

Apple is up from $390 to $440 in the week since w67 piled into it. 2500 shares. Up a Porshe 991 and a $7.6k div chk on may 16.

Don't need no sam miller, don't need fed, don't need a re Borker, don't even need a infl adjuster. Up $132k on a $1mm in a week.

In another 6 yrs when nyc re is at 2001 prices inflation adjusted... I'm gonna take 10% of my sprint and apple position and buy a C6.

We can keep doing this or nyc re billz can capitulate. Flmaozzz

Btw on an risk adjusted basis, my apple position is handily outperforming sprint. What's so funny is the same reasons that w67 bought apple, everyone had the same data. Change cap structure and new product pipeline. It's like the mkt woke up to this fact a week ago.

Likewise the re bullz will wake up one day and azz kick themselves for 'investing' in a bubble. It was a bubble in 07' it's a bubble now and until the fed starts jacking rates to 6%... It'll still be a bubble. Pop that beytchesss

No offense taken. I just feel like the gov't keeps printing money to delay the effects of the Market debacle 5 years ago. Just not sure the rebound is sound

I perfectly understand the sentiment. Look at today where the Chicago PMI went below 50 for the first time since early 2010, along with other poor economic numbers, and the S&P is positive today and reaching all-time highs. Or look at Italian 10 year bond yields going below 4% despite rising unemployment (now at 12%) and a new corrupt government in place that is rolling back tax increases.

At the same time, housing is in a real recovery all around the country. The Case/Shiller numbers show it nationally, and Urbandig numbers certainly show it locally. And unlike 2002 to 2007, there is no sub-prime, no Option Ones/Countrywides or Wamus issuing securitizations and no banks repackaging BBB tranches of Helocs into AAA paper. The stronger housing numbers will eventually show up in over-all economic numbers soon and the recovery will hopefully gain speed assuming no further disasters in Europe. More importantly, this recovery is real and has very little to do with the FED. There is a false assumption that the FED is keeping interest rates down to fuel the housing boom. Although that is the FED's intent, it has failed miserably. Interest rates are down due to the liquidity trap that is in place and from low inflation expectations. So housing is taking off despite not because of FED actions.

w67th, another tip of the cap on the Apple buy. Glad I listened again.

$1M in AAPL @ $390: $100K annual cash-on-cash yield, issue 5-year bonds @ 1%, $7.99 transaction costs, $260K tangible assets covered fully-over by cash & treasury holdings.

$1M in Manhattan condo: $20K annual cash-on-cash yield, lever w/ 5-year ARM @ 3%, $100K transaction costs, no hidden cash under floorboards but perhaps bedbugs.

Carry on...

W67 you can maybe brag about sprint - but buying apple the other week? Who the hell didn't? And where you beaten up a lot as a child?

>$1M in AAPL @ $390: $100K annual cash-on-cash yield, issue 5-year bonds @ 1%, $7.99 transaction costs, $260K tangible assets covered fully-over by cash & treasury holdings.

Thought you bought AAPL at $420 about 7 weeks ago. Don't you remember your own drivel?

@blowjob in billyburg... you are ALWAYS welcome.

@ nada... thank you for the ConEd... lit a fire in my anus... Boooyah! with financial metrics like that how can w67 lose against Ericho/Juiceman/Urbandigs/West81/Ali/Ph41... and multi personality lonely resident SE troll greens dale/et al..... fk em w67 sayz... btw w67 is short Jan 14' and jan 15' $500 strike apple puts... gonna make $150K in two yrs for sitting on my azz and worst case.. w67 buys more apple at $390. .... HOW THE FK CAN I LOSE?

@Greenyestie...nada is hypthoetcating on w67 $390/share buy nstead of a $1MM condo buy... DUH the fk up! Carry on trolling... make some friends on an anonymous board! GO U! Flamozzz... How's the husband? and the kids... .

@Ottawa... .that's what I'm saying I mean... EVERYONE KNOWS EVERY NYCER with a $1MM MORTGAGE BOUGHT 10x that in APPLE LAST WEEK. 12.82% return in 1 week on $10MM => $1.282MM and a div chk for in the $78K on May 16th! NO WONDER NYC RE NEVER GOES DOWN! Flamozzzz.... and getting beat up as a child, who wasn't?

how do you spell lame?

>> $1M in AAPL @ $390: $100K annual cash-on-cash yield, issue 5-year bonds @ 1%, $7.99 transaction costs, $260K tangible assets covered fully-over by cash & treasury holdings.

Wait, my bad. Having trouble counting. It's $355K in tangible assets. Just hypothecated you another $95K, dubya!

Ottawanyc>> W67 you can maybe brag about sprint - but buying apple the other week? Who the hell didn't?

So that was the word on the street from Billyburg? The hipster doofuses who had put all their savings on downpayments for $600K 1BRs were now dropping $1M a head on AAPL?

It's a good thing that inonada is here for w67! Lord knows that w67 can't speak for himself.

Ottawa, on aapl, I have to disagree with your statement. It is a large bet on appl. Only time will tell how much money w67 makes. Even if I bought individual stocks in my pa, I would not have the balls to put a million on a single stock assuming a 5mm stock portfolio.

btw w67 is short Jan 14' and jan 15' $500 strike apple puts... gonna make $150K in two yrs for sitting on my azz and worst case.. w67 buys more apple at $390. .... HOW THE FK CAN I LOSE?

How can you lose? There are plenty of ways you could lose, but the most likely way you might lose is that AAPL sold about 37 million iphones and 20 million iPads in calendar Q1 (not even the holiday quarter), a result so impressive and the scale so large that continued growth off this base would be difficult even IF Samsung weren't making cheaper and arguably better products...and even if the younger generations in critical markets like India weren't already buying Samsung by most accounts.

This is not to say Apple stock won't work but to compare it to an annuity like ConEd is beyond ridiculous.

Here's a thread touting many things about Samsung by the way....

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/32571-best-phone-for-streeteasy-discussion-board

wha wha wha? 003Mercer.. do you know how many NYCers have a $4MM condo and $300K in savings? The $1MM bet is that Apple will outperform NYC CONDOs in the next 6 years... .w67 is up 12% in a week w/ 3% div yield... NYC... ya need 6% to just break even... hahahahahaahahahhahaaaaaaa

AVM! GIVE ME BETA GIVE ME DOLLARZzzzzz BILLS betcyhesssssssss... w67 is up $2MM on sprint... w67 just messing about

Samsung is an open source phone OS that can be hacked by 15 yos and will never match Apple's ability to monetize the 550MM people who have a credit card on itunes....

There is a generation of wealthy ppl that have gotten used to the apple ecosystem and won't give it up... and the last time I checked poor people strive to get what wealthy people have.... yes they get chkn anuses for awhile... but they gonna want Filet Mignon when they got COIN... but enough blabbering... w67 will sell more $500 puts... STFU and buy some AVM

ph41 is here on streeteasy now, w67thstreet. (11:45pm 4/30/13)

She's drunk as a skunk and trolling.
She probably wipes her butt with the cheapest toilet paper she can buy,
just to keep paying for and bragging about her penthouse and terrace.

Stay classy, Gertz gal.

"SWE, FYI it's currently the same as mid-2004 inflation-adjusted using the SE condo index."

Thanks for the additional info. Not surprising.

"Is it fair to use lagging and incomplete median sales from Q1_2013 to assess the state of the current market and say we are trading back at 200x levels? I wouldnt think so."

In correcting comments from a few months ago... sure. ;-)

Of course we'll have a lag. But the forward-looking stuff is ripe for... well, lies. This is the cleanest way to see what has actually happened.

I get that we might be up a few points from last quarter.

But when the STARTING LINE is 20% down, it puts some perspective on some of the broker nonsense, no?

yes--realty, i mean reality, check

not everybody wants reality, though.

>not everybody wants reality, though.

Valuable post, thanks.

some want realty, though--so badly, for god knows what reason, they'll delude themselves re investment value

shit like "my apt's up 40% since I closed in 2010..." hilarious

Yes, that one was funny....

Seems that yikes is looking up to somewhereelse.

If your name is 'bottoms, aren't you always looking up, by definition?

Where is the close quotation? I need to know before I can answer you.

Comparing APPL and owner occupied RE is probably not a useful exercise but happy to watch the mental masturbation.

Is SWE still hiding behind medians?

Median list price per square ft in Manhattan today is $1143. Wow! Highest I have seen it EVER.

But in somewhereelse's bizarro Manhattan, prices are down 20% . . .

Flmaozz. Like talking to a group of your guy friends about how much your wife's sex acts would cost you. $50 for straight up . $75 for double twist doggie style. $200 for 3 way. And then getting offended when w67 says, 'hey juiceman, how much does your wife charge for a blowjob?'

Flmaozzzzzz.

Hey if you haven't noticed yen just busted 100, bill gross says 20 yr bond rally over. And w67 is thinking 3% 30 yr fixed that only taxpayers are funding is a bit of an issue ....... Hahhahhahahaaaa.

Go on LiCC/Juicy. Double dong down on RE. I'm tripled up on apple. Sitting back and chilling till they announce a bunch of new products for Xmas. I hope Xmas comes bf apple goes bankrupt.

>Flmaozz. Like talking to a group of your guy friends about how much your wife's sex acts would cost you. $50 for straight up . $75 for double twist doggie style. $200 for 3 way

* thousands of people who touched your wife ... now we understand where the money for Apple and Sprint came from.

"Is SWE still hiding behind medians?"

I love it!

Sorry, yes, I am "hiding" behind actual sales data while delusional folks go by anecdote and, get this... *asking prices*.

Thanks for the laugh!

"But in somewhereelse's bizarro Manhattan, prices are down 20% . . ."

You should come visit sometime. Because LIC does suck.

Ah, the delusional. You guy do keep things amusing...