When was the start of the NYC "bubble?"

Good question.

Does Yorksville/greenberg mean the pre-2007 NY RE bubble, or the current one?

2007 was the peak

The bubble was actually global and started @ 96/97 when China was given most favored nation status on the import of goods.
With a never ending supply of beyond cheap labor, costs of just about all consumable goods went down yearly for the next 10 years.
Then you have all the trickle down effects. Corporations started making much more money, their stocks went up and paying less taxes. Tech jumped leaps and bounds, adding more fuel, and trickled to real estate.
Equity would jump so fast and so much, why look at property for long term? Then as you had other industries falter, these people would jump into financing and/or developing RE properties. After a while brokers would jump the fence from representing and buying and selling themselves.

In the early 2000s, I had half a dozen friends from fields like insurance, accounting, law, developing houses in the Hamptons.

Most markets at most times are operating in some form of a bubble, sometimes they go malignant.

> 2007 was the peak

Nope. Q2 2008 was peak median.

How can we have 'peaked' when recent closings in 'some' areas are HIGHER than the 2007/2008 highs?
We are still going UP.

epooro75 is right, we're definitely in another RE bubble in NY, which is why I asked which bubble Yorksville/greenberg was referring to.

"epooro75 is right, we're definitely in another RE bubble in NY"

When have i been wrong? :)

btw, record closing psf in the powerhouse (LIC).
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/834118-condo-50-09-2nd-street-hunters-point-long-island-city

It's starting to look like 2007/2008 was a mere correction in a bigger cycle UP.
With QE infinity (60 billion a month from the fed) and 1.4 trillion in 2 years in Japan, why would anything think assets will even be down in the coming years in this global economy???

The moment there's the slightest change in political wind -- here, Japan, or any other bubble-blowing nation -- and stimuli gets throttled down by the slightest increment, the new bubble will crash faster and lower than anything since tulips. At least tulips weren't shoddily-built rapidly-decaying backlot sets like LIC condo buildings are, though.

I sense a little bit of 'bitterness' in you Alan.
Good luck in trying to guess when this musical chair (stimuli) will stop. We will have at a minimum another 2 years of higher 'everything'.

Good luck waiting....

Alan, you are getting apt23 very excited.

Waiting? I own my apartment. I'm just not a cheerleader in a little short poofy skirt and big bubble pompoms. Fi-ya-cracka.

apt23 is esciting, isn't she?

exciting

Just going by the Miller-Samuel charts, it'd be the end of the 1990s, after years of stuff just bumping along.

Or see http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/27/nyregion/residential-real-estate-prices-cool-a-little-for-apartments-in-manhattan.html?smid=pl-share

She gets excited but no she is not exciting.

Alan, why didn't you sell your apartment like w67 told you to?

Too many sunken transaction costs. w67 forgot to warn me about those before I bought. Now I will have to ride the market down down down. It will recover in 25 years or so, no problem. I'll save up for pistachio paint to alleviate some of the gloom of my situation as an owner of NY real estate in 2013.

At least I have my dignity -- nobody can take that away from me.

and your privacy - oh wait.

Real estate? 1997-98. Thank you, Alan Greenspan. Lost some momentum in early oughts, then barreled on starting in about 2002, IIRC.

Now looks like another bubble. We live in interesting economic times, although few seem to acknowledge it, without hyperbole and doomsday scenarios, which reduce credibility. We can't truly fathom what the next century or even decade might hold, but without some thoughtful intervention life may again become nasty, brutish and short. Then again, it might not.

AH, all one needs is dignity and pearls, or so my granny said.

>We live in interesting economic times, although few seem to acknowledge it, without hyperbole and doomsday scenarios, which reduce credibility. We can't truly fathom what the next century or even decade might hold, but without some thoughtful intervention life may again become nasty, brutish and short. Then again, it might not.

ar, I have trained you well. Even though you used a lot of words, you said absolutely nothing which means you can't be proven wrong. Although, maybe you could be proven wrong. Time will tell. Who knows? Eh, maybe! Like your grandmother would have told you if she were alive. But she's not.

or is she?

No, I said something real and tangible. You just need the skill of inference, which you lack. Don't put your money in an illiquid asset unless you are certain you can do so without future hardship. Duh.

No WAY -- dignity and pearls ... that's my secret recipe for a sidecar! That or cheap brandy, crappy orange liqueur and whatever lemon juice happens to by lying around.

Since the topic is bubbles, the consumption ought to be oysters and champagne. I can be so slow. Or cheap brandy... That works too. It's good to have a certain flexibility, in many things. Something mossyboy hasn't seemed to have learned.

>No, I said something real and tangible.
>We live in interesting economic times

? Your analysis is tepid at best.

and at worst?

Non-existent. You add nothing.

So, what's your bottom line?

>> That or cheap brandy, crappy orange liqueur and whatever lemon juice happens to by lying around.

"Real" lemon juice from the yellow plastic lemon-shaped bottles, that'd be more apropos.

There was a bubble in the 1980's that crashed in the late 80's. That lasted right through the mid 90's when it began to recover. That recovery turned into a bubble in the 2000's and crashed again in the 2007-2008 time frame. It's in the beginnings of a recovery as we speak and will lead to another bubble over the next 5 to 10 years.

It's an unending cycle which serves to get prices back in line with the financial ability of purchasers.

Each bubble bursting in NYC was part of a national trend . So, a sharp decrease of NYC real estate would likely mean there was also a national decline ......