Foreclosure Rates On The Rise Across The City

but.. but.... but.... foreclosure is impossible in Manhattan!!! we're all millionaires here!!! no wait... it's the foreigners who will save Manhattan, idiot!

LMAO stevejhx, they do smell like the same disbelieving lemmings on the Arizona and Florida real estate boards... just give them a little more time to simmer.

Do you think these people need a place to rent. Where are all these renters going to live?

Sorry I meant to say I hope these renters don't put a burden on the other renters. MMAfia have you looked at Gold today it's Krrrrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaaaaaassssssssshhhhhhhhhhing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Home prices plunging at a faster pace in February
"Prices down record 12.7% in past year, with 'no sign of bottom,' S&P says

"The biggest year-over-year declines were in Las Vegas and Miami, with declines of more than 20% in the past year."

Well it's a good thing that unlike Miami and Las Vegas (and San Diego and the Inland Empire and...), Manhattan prices NEVER fall! Not ever. They always go up 100% every four years, because:

a) We have all the foreigners piling in.

WAIT!

So did Miami!

b) We didn't have flippers.

WAIT! All those condos on the market after a year, at 40% premiums over preconstruction!

c) We're not tied to a single industry, like tourism.

WAIT! Wall Street!

d) We didn't have subprime.

WAIT! All those new condos with 0%, 5%, 10% down! 80% of jumbo mortgages being ARM's!

e) We don't have a foreclosure problem.

WAIT! Up 66% in Manhattan.

f) We didn't have overbuilding.

WAIT! 30,000 new units permitted in Manhattan over the last 3 years, when historically only 8,500 units change hands every year.

g) Real estate isn't overly expensive in Manhattan.

WAIT! Owner's carrying costs = twice market rents.

h) Our new condos have luxury finishes.

OF COURSE! Granite countertops make it all worthwhile.

i) Verain says that technology causes property prices to increase in Manhattan.

I can't even think of a way to answer that.

g) Our new codo

But what about the influx of renters?

Sorry about g) (almost) twice - I'm a crappy editor!

Yes MMafia, it seems like most of these people have never seen a real estate crash before, don't realize that real estate is and always will be a cyclical industry tied to incomes and leverage.

It was so obvious in Miami when I was living there that there was going to be a crash. You could feel it. You can feel it here.

The psychology is changed. Ask yourself this: if you see a property on easystreet whose listing shows a price INCREASE, would you even bother to look at it?

No. The psychology is changed. People are just going to wait in the sidelines for things to settle down.

Oh well will be off to Europe for a few weeks. Tootaloo

ah steve and his stooge mafia taking to themselves again.

Toodles, spunkster. I'll miss your occasional intelligent post and pseudo-compassion for the aborted hijacking of my name.

ccdevi: tell me what's wrong with what I'm saying. I repeat: Ask yourself this: if you see a property on streeteasy whose listing shows a price INCREASE, would you even bother to look at it?

Ha ha ha ha ha. Miami. Ha ha ha ha ha.

There is a nice outdoor space at the Ritz Carlton in downtown Miami. Next time you are there, grab drink and sit at one of the outdoor couches and look up at the skyline. That will tell you everything you need to know about why Miami crashed. Manhattan ain't Miami and never will be.

Is there a way to tell where the areas that had the foreclousres in Manhattan. Harlem,...and above?

JuiceMan, I was just in Miami last month: the foreigners were rushing in to soak up all that extra inventory. I personally saw them lining up to buy multiple apartments because the dollar is so undervalued. I texted a photo to spunky; I hope he got it.

Ha ha ha ha ha. The crash in Manhattan in the 80's was worse than in Miami at the same time.

Next time you're in Manhattan, take time to look around. At all the new construction all over the place, in a city whose population growth is much lower than Miami's, at prices that have climbed 100% in 4 years. Not even in Miami did they rise so far so fast. And in Miami property prices aren't tied to a single industry, as they are here. An industry which, last time I looked, was collapsing.

And in Miami you don't need a jumbo mortgage to buy a studio.

Ha ha ha ha ha.

It is silly that manhattan is being compared to miami. We lived in the area for 7 years and saw the bubble happen since inception. Either steve has never been there or he is ignoring some obvious differences. As juiceman said, it was plain to see that miami was headed to a brutal ending just by looking at the skyline. There were (are) cranes everywhere, huge 50 story condo towers with hundreds of units going up in every direction you looked, and certainly not enough local business to attract such a huge influx of new homeowners.

When we moved to nyc last year, the new construction looked nothing like miami. Yes, there are several buildings going up in manhattan, but these are typically much smaller, 30-60 units, and still relatively sparse given the population difference between the two cities. I suggest you take another trip down to miami (and vegas) and refresh your memories about what it's really like.

Smaller, 30-60 units? HAve you not seen a the new constructions and condo conversions pop up all over the place?

superquant, I was JUST THERE, and I sold an apartment in South Beach 2.5 years ago that I could buy back today for 30% less. I first moved to Coral Gables in 1985, so I know a thing or two about the area.

I saw the cranes there on my last trip, and the changing skyline, and I saw the flip side of it here (pardon the almost-pun): demand chasing supply. If you don't know, in Florida, no bank will release a construction loan UNLESS 51% of the preconstruction units are in contract. I believe that is the law, and it's not the case here, and it means that over one-half of all those tall buildings going up are already sold.

There you had speculation at the retail level, here at the wholesale.

When I returned to Manhattan in 2005 the landscape was completely different from 2003, when I left. There were literally people lined up around the block to see open houses; they were holding open outcry auctions for apartments. You had enormous demand fueled by outsized Wall Street bonuses - based on fake accounting, as we now see - and ultra-low interest rates. Last year more than twice the average number of apartments were sold in Manhattan than had sold in the prior 9 years.

In Miami you had excess demand chasing insufficient supply which led to excess supply chasing insufficient demand. It happened earlier than here, but now in Manhattan you have excess supply chasing insufficient demand.

The population of Miami-Dade County is 2.4 million. The population of New York Country is 1.7 million. Miami-Dade is growing three times as fast as Manhattan, and it is not dependent on a single industry like we are: Wall Street.

You moved to NYC last year; I was born here and have lived here for many years. I suggest you go back into the history books when in the 1970's you could buy a townhouse for $40,000.

I was making a generalizing statement. yes there are a few large ones, but there are also many much smaller than the average in miami. In miami every single new development was 300 units +.

superquant, you really don't know what you're talking about:

http://buybeach.com/mgrande/index.htm

There are dozens and dozens of condo conversions all over South Beach and Coral Gables and elsewhere. You are extrapolating from what you see with your eyes, without investigating what is actually on the market.

Unlike Manhattan, a lot of the Miami-Dade supply are single-family homes.

The foreclosure rate in Manhattan is indeed up 66%. The number of foreclosures in Manhattan is now a lofty 228. Yes, 228. Steve, this kind of wave is hardly likely to get my toes wet.

I'm not suggesting that an increase is good news. I'm not suggesting that the Manhattan market is going to have price increases this year.

I'm just not trying to extrapolate 66% increase to mean that the sky is falling.

yes steve, you're right. manhattan is the same as miami, and there aren't thousands more units of highrise condos in miami.

stevejhx...you make the wrong investment choices because you are just way too EMOTIONAL. Why don't you spend some time away from the real estate game. TRY and CALM DOWN. Ask Warren Buffet, he is successful becuase it's business not personal. Listen for a change stop talking. It's okay to get excited and confrontational once and awhile but you are way way over the edge man. Here's to good health.

Come Lemmings!!! COME!!! the cauldron is stewing and waiting for you to jump in!!!

BUY NOW!!! Manhattan real estate cannot, I REPEAT CANNOT ever go down! even if the rest of the country is facing the worst housing recession since the Great Depression, Manhattan will be spared!!!

Buy that apartment without hesitation! Forget about all the negative news in the media... it's all LIES!!!

Wall Street problems? Pssshhh... overrated like LeBron James. Wall St. has nothing to do with Manhattan real estate, even if it is facing the worst credit crisis in half a century and laying off people left and right.

COME! Join the foreigners! BUY NOW or forever be priced-out of the market and be forced to rent for the rest of your lives!

Manhattan is different!!!!

Silly lemmings.

MMAfia please also read above post. Take Care.

If it stopped at 228 then I would say wow that's great. However this is the beginning and time will tell all good or bad.

Speaking of "it's business and not personal"...see the following quote from Sam Zell I read from Bloomberg...

``This country needs a cleansing,'' billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell, chairman of Equity Group Investments LLC, said yesterday at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles. ``We need to clean out all those people who never should have bought in the first place, and not give them sympathy.''

smallmj, do you know how hard it is to foreclose in New York State? It's a process that takes about a year. In other states like California, which are "title theory" states, foreclosures are done in 90 days tops.

Because in title theory states mortgages are not issued - rather, properties are held in trust, the bank being the settlor and trustee, the "owner" being the trust beneficiary. Since the property is held in the name of the bank, it's a quick process.

New York is a lien theor state:

How long does it take to foreclose a property in New York?

Depending on the court schedule, it usually takes approximately 120-180 days to effectuate an uncontested foreclosure. This process may de delayed if the borrower contests the action, seeks delays and adjournments of hearings, or files forbankruptcy. A foreclosure sale must be advertised at least four (4) weeks in advance of any sale and sales usually take four (4) months after final judgment for foreclosure is granted.

You can learn all about it at foreclosure.com.

steve, you continue to make yourself look silly with your Miami comments. I know your just being a drama queen, but it is idiotic. Miami. Ha ha ha. Hey everyone, Manhattan is like Miami! ha ha ha.

228 foreclosures? That's it? Wow, pretty strong sign for a very resilient real estate market don’t you think?

Slee, you're right as is Sam Zell. I (and others) cringe at all these plans to "rescue" people and - by extension - continue to keep real estate at artificially high prices, outside the grasp of those who were more prudent and didn't overextend themselves.

This is the problem with bankruptcy in general: it rewards the careless at the expense of the prudent, who acted in good faith. I was once caught on the wrong end of a bankruptcy - a creditor - and it makes you feel violated when they take your hard-earned money and give it to an incompetent profligate.

Just one man's opinion.

JuiceMan- I used Miami as an indicator back in Oct. to sell in the maket and go to cash. So Miami worked for me.

JuiceMan, have to agree, 228 foreclosures isn't really much to get too concerned about at this point. stevejhx, if it takes a year to foreclose in NYS, then why are you even posting a link to an article about foreclosures now? The stats will be more relevant at least a few months from now, no? I'm all for getting the most accurate, unbiased view of what's going on out there, but some of you guys are starting to sound an awful lot like the bulls when things seemed to be pointing their way.

bjw, backlog.

If you've ever worked for a bank with a lot of "other real estate owned," you look at the trend, not the absolute numbers. Most ARM's in Manhattan are younger than elsewhere and haven't reset yet.

If the numbers change in 3 months - either direction - I'm sure they'll be reposted.

JuiceMan - it's a good thing that unlike Miami and Las Vegas (and San Diego and the Inland Empire and...), Manhattan prices NEVER fall! Not ever. They always go up 100% every four years, because:

a) We have all the foreigners piling in.

WAIT!

So did Miami!

b) We didn't have flippers.

WAIT! All those condos on the market after a year, at 40% premiums over preconstruction!

c) We're not tied to a single industry, like tourism.

WAIT! Wall Street!

d) We didn't have subprime.

WAIT! All those new condos with 0%, 5%, 10% down! 80% of jumbo mortgages being ARM's!

e) We don't have a foreclosure problem.

WAIT! Up 66% in Manhattan.

f) We didn't have overbuilding.

WAIT! 30,000 new units permitted in Manhattan over the last 3 years, when historically only 8,500 units change hands every year.

g) Real estate isn't overly expensive in Manhattan.

WAIT! Owner's carrying costs = twice market rents.

h) Our new condos have luxury finishes.

OF COURSE! Granite countertops make it all worthwhile.

i) Verain says that technology causes property prices to increase in Manhattan.

I can't even think of a way to answer that.

Just wait.

Or, like your 24x annual rent = home purchase price, show me why any of those things that I'm saying are false.

steve, I guess my larger point is that it's tough to read much into a newspaper article like the one you linked to (and I'm not singling you out - spunky and will do this all the time, my favorite being spunky quoting a Nobel Laureate who "thinks" we'll "probably" pull out of this). I scanned through the foreclosures on RealtyTrac (where the article got its #s from) and it's clear most of them are in northern Manhattan (East Harlem, etc.), though there are definitely properties in more desirable areas. But even the trend (up 66%, which is still much less than elsewhere) isn't terribly alarming yet, especially given such a small sample, and especially when you look to see where these foreclosures are. So I don't know if it's worth sounding the bell at every incidiary article out there unless there's really good, hard data to draw from. You've been good about it before, just wish it were all consistent.

bjw, not alarming yet, true. Wasn't alarming in other places 2 years ago, either.

Ok steve, so what are you trying to say with this article then? Don't you think it would be better to look at the ratio of foreclosure to total properties and the rate of increase there? My educated guess is that that's still a pretty low number for Manhattan compared to most other places, but maybe someone out there's got the data?

bjw, I'd look at the trends and the fundamentals.

There is still a pretty low number for Manhattan compared to most other places.

steve, did you ever take the GMAT's? Here is a good GMAT question that I think you should attempt to answer.

Which one of the following things below would be considered equal:

a) Miami and Manhattan
b) 1988 and 2008
c) Brad Pitt and Chewbacca
d) apples and apples

JuiceMan, none of the above.

e) bubble and bubble.

I took the GSAT, and scored 780 / 800 on both verbal and math, and got into grad school at Columbia.

That's good enough for me.

Or, put another way:

a) Miami and Manhattan = bubble
b) 1988 and 2008 = bubble
c) Brad Pitt, unless Chewy is a top
d) I don't like apples.

steve, what is the GSAT? I assume you mean GRE? If that's the case, I had the exact same scenario. When you say trends and fundamentals, what do you mean exactly then? Because you can look at trends under my proposed way of cutting the data, and I think that's far more valuable than just saying foreclosures are up 66% YOY in Manhattan. If my math is any good, going from 137 foreclosures to 228 is certainly a big jump percentage wise, but to imply that this is a harbinger of a crash is a little tough to swallow. Percentages, as you know, can be quite misleading.

Heaven help us all.