Housing Bubble Threat Grows

We're deep into another bubble in NY, and every bubba and bubbela knows it.

assuming that the recovery continues on a slow but steady pace, wont there be even more demand? new household formations ? less roommate situations ?

Oh here we go again, brokers who think they are economists.

Guy, you are so wrong.

Marco, the one demographic stat that is for now positive is the number of households with only one person, which has increased dramatically. But probably not in NYC. Long term many, many people are going to need to move to senior living environments, which are woefully inadequate in number for the upcoming baby boomer retirement flow. This will be a large number of additional housing units. Our population is flat. Do the math.

just remember...north america is an island (if you go far enough)...only so much room to build!!

You are joking, I hope? One big f'ng island. Not so densely populated.

woefully inadequate! AR, you've been sitting in for your husband during negotiations, haven't you?

Piss off.

Hmm, I smell malpractice.

Aboutready: I concur about the baby boomer retirement flow - & flow it will , as we inevitably cross the incontinental divide.

Of major concern is the issue of massive deforestation, resulting from the non-stop demand for Depends. It's a - ahem - "trickle down" effect, if you will, with the only bubbles of any concern being the ones continuously forming & popping in aforementioned undergarments.

Next stop: Soylent Green Acres...now I know why there's an "oy" in Soylent...which also sounds like "soiled"...

OK, that's enough, as I've thoroughly depressed myself...

walpurgis, enough with the toilet humor. It doesn't resonate with aboutready.

Will do; I thought I was on the Flushing thread....sigh...see? It's starting already...

I wouldn't worry about it too much. We are all glad the old aboutready is back.

Invest in draino. I don't mind toilet "humor" at all. So much of what people think passes for humor is nothing of the sort. Just repetitive mindless drivel.

There's our old aboutready!

Unfortunately I don't think were in a bubble as prices have not risen the normal 40 to 50% to show a bubble, the price rise in NYC seems to be about 10 to 20% off its lows and is more likely a bounce back off lows rather than a bubble. However although brooklyn and downtown may be in a higher percentage of increase other areas like midtown and the upper east side are lower so its all relative. The question for most should be is it cheaper to buy than rent and you must figure not just today but also what your rent will be in 5 years, then even if prices go down your set. For most in NYC housing is simply a payment.

For New York impact of the domestic demographic shift may be offset by the continued global moneyed people growth , the kind who want to invest in London, NYC, and a handful of other cities .

If prices dip... the chinese will just come in and buy everything up...
Chinese money is like Russian money... there is no end...

GGman you are so right. They are probably coming even though prices are not going to dip. Pretty much every major central bank in the world (ECB, FED, BOJ just to name a few) have the presses working overtime. The availability of quality assets which are able to withstand the inevitable inflationary pressure which will arise will decline. The smart ones are searching for the right assets now and Manhattan real estate qualifies.

The Chinese and Russians won't buy if they perceive a threat from flooding due to frequent storms.

Whas the city/state done to address this threat from clmate change to property values? Nothing beyond a bunch of studies and Bloomie declaring bravely, "We will not retreat from the waterfront."

Gimmme a break. We'll retreat if it costs to much to stay there.

You have no idea what the Chinese go through with their real estate back home. Flooding is nothing. Think landslides and earthquakes. Stop thinking like a sheltered American. This is a global economy now.

i kinda agree with ggman. us $ keeps depreciating compared to chinese currency.

Foreign investors buy NYC real estate as a safe haven. If it's got three feet of standing water in it, they won't buy it.

>Whas the city/state done to address this threat from clmate change to property values? Nothing beyond a bunch of studies and Bloomie declaring bravely, "We will not retreat from the waterfront."

What would you like them to do?

3 feet standing water is fine when you own a unit 100+ ft above ground and the building is still standing. You really think these people are living in the units they buy?

I agree with greensdale...

Its the risks of living on an island...If anything the city has proved that it can resume business as ususal quickly after a natural disaster.

I haven't heard of all that much Chinese buying in NY so far -- at least not Manhattan residential. There's probably good reason for that, weather it's flooding, distance, common charges, or whatever. So I wouldn't count on Chinese money propping things up.

Same goes for Middle East oil money.

That leaves Russians and Argentines with means. By which I include Brazil.

I heard a rumor that a highly unfavorable and quite hefty new tax was recently imposed on Chinese (or maybe just Hong Kong) sales/resales, and that was supposed to scare investors away from China. The guy I was talking to was from Frisco, and might have been referring to commercial, not residential. Can someone please tell me what I'm talking about???

And FIDI is completely uninhabitable because Jason's office got wet.

So if you haven't heard of it isn't happening? Go talk to some brokers who cater to the chinese investors. They can buy off pictures and floorplans that are emailed to them...

Hong Kong has a new transfer tax if you don't hold it for a certain length of time. The government is trying to limit investors flipping to stablize the price. The Chinese (the non Hong Kong Chinese) already did this to Hong Kong. Thats why the prices have skyrocketed.

Don't know how there can be a housing bubble,when a large number of purchases are cash, and if a purchase is financed the debt to equity is conservative. If a bubble is forming, it's in the equity(check out the use of margin) and debt markets(student loans, sub-prime autos,,etc).

Hmmm... Chinese buyers are in Williamsburg hi end .....

go away.

hunter greasy dale berg.

Hi C0C0!