LIC last few months

p/h seems to be moving. ive picked up the listings the last two sundays and i saw about about 80% turnover on the 1brs.. little slower on the larger units, but i guess is expected in this market. would be curious to know whether they have hit the 50% released point yet..

i think 5sl is one with the 1BRs. but i think someone is looking to assign a 1br contract in the smaller building.

I have not seen much movement at all. Just looking for another opinion.

you could be right.. i just havent look at anything other than 5sl and p/h recently. traffic does seem to still be there. the 5sl assignment wasnt a huge suprise. the recent wave of wall st layoffs probably hit the lic area disproportionately, which appeal to the finance types looking for starter apartments.

p/h has 177 units. if streeteasy is correct, then 49 have signed contracts, which means the building is 28% sold. is that right?

If that's true then that terrible. even at 50% I would still consider that terrible. My reasoning is that most of those units were sold last year and before the credit crunch. Not good.

I have been also hearing that EC3 is going to be half rentals if not all because of low demand.

streeteasy has 49 in-contract and 26 as sold.. which is a strange, since the building isnt complete. assuming optimistically that the 26 been taking off market b/c they have signed contracts, that's only 43% of the total units.. for what its worth, they indicated closings for this summer, but the building only looks half done at this point.

The building construction has been a problem from the beginning. It's my belief that it is having trouble with financing. The soft market has led many banks to cut funding. The other problem is the Hunter's Point South Project that will absolutely block all of the views including the roof deck. Many people are going to be very surprised. Paying top dollar for a view that will last about 2-3 years and then live in a construction zone for another 5 years.

They actually have changed the offering appliances for the units. They downgraded the Viking Appliances and gave some lame excuse that it was for power purposes. If that were true that doesn't make me feel good about the construction of the building. My guess it has to do with money as always.

actually the third amendment to the offering plan for p/h says the appliances were upgraded. which ones do you know of were downgraded? it still looks like all viking except for the range and range hood for some units.

Still viking but I believe a lower model than what was originally offered. I could be wrong so if I were you I would double check.

Major price-chopping last week at the few remaining Badge units, now at about $658 psf.

for units under $1mn, i believe the range, the range hood and possibly the fridge are all jennairs

Buyer beware. I want to buy in LIC, but definitely not comfortable in this current situation. Even though there are almost no new sales, some buildings are not dropping prices because they don't want to spook the current in contract buyers. My feeling is once these building closes, the developer will drop the prices on the remaining unit. My biggest fears for alot of in contract buyers are the no-mortgage contigency provision, low appraisal, and lack of mortgage product for less than 20% buyer.

JimmyT- I couldn't of said it better myself. Actually if you read some of my previous posts you will see it is exactly the same analysis. You are the only person that has come to the same conclusion. Your analysis of the prices not dropping is 100% on the money. It applies to all New development. They can't lower prices for several reasons.

1. The pending contracts would collapse. Some would even give up their down payment.
2. The value of the property would decrease overnight making it harder to get a mortgage for those still waiting to close. (property is not worth the value of the loan). What bank in this climate would give you a loan on a property that is valued at 20% less at the time of closing.
3. It would also lower the projected profits of the development. Loans were made with certain expectations of repayment purposes. Installment loans could be put in jeopardy

Most of these remaining units will be rented out. If I just bought a 1M condo in LIC and had 30-70% renters I would be very upset. Also keep in mind that some of these projects receive financing as they go. They have to show (X) amount of units sold before they get any further money. This is why some projects have slowed. The PH is one that is way behind schedule. My best guess is financing. Unions don't work for Free. On the other hand have a much bigger developer like Rockrose can weather the storm better. This should be a major concern for all who are looking to buy at any new development.

I am not going to comment on powerhouse because all the apartments are not on the market, and with developer relaesing apartments as needed, or taking apartments off the market as convenient, it is hard to get a true figure of sales momentum.
5sl on the other hand had 22 apartments remaining for sale for aboutn 5 months back. They sold 1 apartment about 6 weeks back, and now have 21 for sale, and the list they are giving out says that they have 1 additional apartment with contract out. These numbers are way too slow. I also predict that they will have to adjust their prices soon to get the last apartments to move.
This situation is not good for people who are currently in contract.

What do you guys think of EC3. Information has the apartments at about $1000-1100 sq foot. At $700 in this climate the building will not sell out. My guess it goes rental. Just an opinion. These outer boroughs will get hit harder than Manhattan. LIC at $450-550 is true market value in this market.

To illustrate my point. Take note of the price per square foot at $956. And LIC demands $1000. No chance. Just food for thought. Even the maintance is not that high. My guess is EC3 would be in the $1200/month. I'm getting this from similiar developments in LIC.

411 East 57th Street in Sutton Place
Co-op
Sutton Place

1,250 ft²
$956 per ft²

4.5 rooms
2 beds, 2 baths

Maintenance: $1,551

Rarely available 2Br/2Ba penthouse apartment.This apartment features: large living/windowed dining area, new crown and floor moulding, restored oak parquet floors, new sound-resistant windows through out, electric fireplace, and French doors to 2nd br/den. Large master bedroom has windowed en-suite bath and walk-in closet. Windowed kitchen has been renovated to include: garbage disposer, Miele dish... (more)

Amenities: Pets Allowed, Doorman, Deck, Garage, Parking Available, Dishwasher, and Common Outdoor Space

Listed at CBHK by Jeffrey Liebowitz send a message to this agent

Price reduced $55,000 about 3 hours ago

62 days on market in StreetEasy
SAVE this listing PRINT this listing EMAIL this listing to a friend PROBLEM? send us a correction
This sale has been saved by 5 users.

in all fairness.. 5sl is in no danger of not closing.. theyre about 80% contracted. toll brothers has the financial wherewithal to shoulder 20 or so vacant units into closing.. powerhouse and ~100 units, im not so sure about.

cb81- I agree with you assesment of 5SL- My guess will be rentals or they will wait for the closings to be complete and then make the market adjustments.

Please no one take dco seriously. He has been trying to post anti-LIC comments everywhere for months and has no idea what he is talking about. Get the real facts and don't listen to his misinformation. Powerhouse, 10-63, Hunters Point Condos, Foundry, and others have had decent sales throughout the last 6-8 months.

I didn't say last 6-8 months. Everywhere was selling 6-8 months ago. What I have said is that LIC got way ahead if it's self for the last 2 years much like the NYC area. Now things are correcting. LICComment lets talk the last 2-3 months like I said on the above post. To say that these units have sold units 6-8 months ago is irrelevant. Were talking about the state of the market. So please tell me and everybody else. How many units in those buildings you listed have sold in the last 3 months. Why don't you give a break down for FEB,MAR and Apr.

Sales in LIC have just about stopped. And if I were in contract I would try what ever possible angle to get out. Otherwise you will find out your neighbor paid $100-200,000 less than you did.

dco - stop with the nonsense about $1,000 psf - everything with the exception EC3 (which hasn't even officially started selling yet) is at or below the $700psf mark.

$800psf was the prvious record and that's a 5SL.

you can get a 1,200 sf place in a perfectly good new building in LIC for 650psf. Your comments are unfounded so stop posting the same nonsense unless you have something to add.

a) you are comparing condo to coop
b) you are not comparing apples to apples (compare a new construction condo on the upper west side to a new construction condo in LIC)
c) based on the above your comparisons are way off.

to your earlier post - state of the market is not good anywhere right now. new construction in Manhattan is just as stalled as LIC or Williamsburg or Harlem. This si about LIC in the past few months - so the question is what makes it so different from the rest of the market?

and have buildiogns sold since December? yes.
At the same rate as before? no.

but that is not specific to LIC and the increases in prices for that market are not off base with the rest of hte city.

now, when you say $450 is fair value for LIC then you are basically saying that the rest of the city needs to drop by the same %...

I personally think that LIC is a great place to be and good bang for your buck relative to the rest o fthe city.

also, news flash - both average and median prices were up in Manhattan again last quarter.

lobo- The price is the price. I could careless if ones a condo or coop. If the apartment are the same size and maintenance is similar who cares. The point I was making is when people say you can't get the same size unit in Manhattan below 96 st. as LIC they are wrong. Every time someone shows a property that is comparable people like you find some reason to ignore the proof. Thanks for agreeing with me as to the state of the market. That was my point. Units are not moving anywhere. That's why LIC is way overpriced. Until it corrects it's priceses these units will sit. If Manhattan continues to decline the spread between the 2 areas shrinks, that is what I was pointing out. I think LIC has potential but at these priceses the infrastructure doesn't support the value.

as I have said before, I don't disagree with the overall state of the market. I just don't think that LIC is somehow in a worse state.

second, it is no secret that condo prices in NYC command higher prices psf than coops, that is why I made my comment. So, no, the price is not the price in this case.

http://manhattan.about.com/od/findanapartment/a/condoscoopsnyc.htm

also, I never said that you can not get a similar size unit in Manhattan. I have argued comps though, and it is very hard to compare what you can get in LIC vs. what you can get in manhattan. You can't compare single units in individual buildings. Look at the overall markets and what you can get for what price.

reasonable psf range for LIC $550 - $1000 (max)
reasonable psf range in manhattan $950 - $7,000

average $psf in manhattan over $1,300psf
average $psf in LIC around $700psf (in the nice area - that's half of manhattan's average)

living in manhattan is not as important to everyone as you may think. that's where I think the issue that I have is. If I could choose to be anywhere in the city and money were no object I would live on 5th avenue by the park. But since that's not the case, I would look for the most bang for my buck. does that mean LIC for me...maybe not. But it certainly would not be sutton place - I'm not 80 - and come on, the restaurant situation and walk to subway from sutton is worse than LIC.

also, if you agree that it is the overall state of the market, then the spread between the areas does not shrink...

that makes no sense...if overall prices come down the spread remains the same - you can just get an aprtment for less anywhere you go.

So, my point is, this thread that you started is about the last few months in LIC - not a comparison of LIC to Mnahattan. So, are you discussing specific buildings and units that are or are not moving in LIC or are you back to every other thread that you have started that starts out about LIC and then goes back to comapring it to Manahttan?

lobo- What I said about spreads is that the over whelming majority of properties are new construction in LIC. Of which we all know are reluctant to lower prices. So my point again is that as Manhattan properties condo, coops, new or old begin to fall LIC developers will have to choice. Either lower the price or risk zero interest because the cost to live in Manhattan has decreased coming closer in price to LIC. This goes for all the outer boroughs. Williamsburg,Cobble Hill, Dumbo etc... as well as Parts of NJ. I'm not comparing the average prices. And I apologize for saying that you said you couldn't get a place in Manhattan for a similar price. However many people think that LIC is some great bargain. I agree you probably get more for your money. You can also get more for your money in Yonkers but that's not the point.

The problem I have with LIC is that they are asking prices consistent with neighborhoods which actually have stores. If the progress continues LIC will eventually be a "real" neighborhood with stores and restaurants in about 5 years. The whole area around the waterfront is a construction zone. Not to mention that further development may be in jeopardy for obvious reasons. If you take risk in developing neighborhoods the price should reflect that risk. That's my analysis for better or worse.

As far as my example being in Sutton Place it was just one of many I have found all over Manhattan. Just look and I'm sure you will see asking prices in the $900 range. Again LIC is close to Manhattan of the 7 line, however Sutton Place is in Manhattan. I rather walk to work than walk to a train, take a train and then walk to work from there. The majority of people looking and living in LIC work in Manhattan. If you did a survey I would find it hard to believe that people would rather live in LIC if they could get a similar place in walking distance to their job.

sutton place = 10 minute walk to train. then train for 15 minutes to downtown. then at work. (that's my point, depends where you work, you may always need to take the subway no matter where you live)

LIC (obviously depending on where) 2 minute walk to subway. 5 minute train ride. transfer to downtown. 15 minute train ride... (not too much different)

same thing, and still have to take a train. My point is that you can't choose to live wherever you want in manhattan (or at least I can't). that opens up your options. then LIC can become more interesting. Development on the waterfront has hit its peak, so I don't think that it is at risk of underdevelopment - plenty of people are happy to live there with the current state of development (even if no new condos go up). Restaurants and stores are not at there yet but when the 20+ buildings in the hunters point are are completed that issue will be solved within a year (not 5). And while not all of the buildings are completely sold out, they have enough units sold to create significantly more demand for restaurants/stores - just count the number of new stores that are about to open on Vernon (at least 8 that I can think of and I don't live there)

I don't argue that you may not want to wait that long but for anyone willing to close on an aprtment by the end of this year/early 09 - it will be a very different place.

Also, I'm not arguing that you can find things in manhattan for $900psf. But, people looking to pay that amount in LIC are looking for penthouse apartments that would compare in size and view to a penthouse apartment in manhattan - but for a prime penthouse in manhattan you are looking at well over $2,000psf. In LIC you could get a beautiful penthouse for under $1,000psf. In other words the penthouse that youls cost you $4 million in manhattan would cost you under $2 million in LIC. to some poeople that makes a huge difference.

Most of the people in LIC are looking for starter apartments and those (near the subway) are going for $600 - 750psf - so the $900psf that you say you can find in Manhattan becomes considerably more expensive. That's why I say that the spread is nowhere near the same. A starter apartment in LIC gets you much more space for much less - no matter how you look at it.

lobo- We agree more than you think. One more time I'm saying "AS prices fall in Manhattan" the spread will become less and less. I didn't say it was all the way there yet. However is is moving in that direction. I also agree with you that the market as a whole should move together resulting in the spread % to remain equal distance apart. The problem is LIC has so many new developments that lowering the price has tremendous consequences for the developer. They can't lower prices for 2 basic reasons until the building closes on the pending contracts.

1. People would look to get out of their contracts. Who would agree to go to closing with the identical unit now selling for $100,000 less.

2. Getting a mortgage will be almost impossible if the value is $100,000 less at time of closing.

Lowering the price of these unit are not an option until they close the pending contracts or they risk losing hundreds of sales. This creates the problem that will make the spreads closer and closer by the day. If I were in negotiations to buy in LIC I would bargain for 2 free parking spots. They are going to be willing to give you just about anything not to lower the price of the unit. If you are thinking of buying that the appraoch I would use. Even If you don't need the spot. Rent them out for about $50 less a month then the market value. I think it bet $200-275. Just so thought.

dco - it's quiet sad that certain individuals choose to post non-factual information on this website. DCO has been constantly posting negative information of LIC and insists on continuing to post information that is false and making non-comprobable comparisons. There is another listing called "the powerhouse lic..any thoughts" that dco also tried to make these claims and never responded to my rebutal:

about 2 weeks ago
report abuse jmcbyr8 and dco - I don't understand why you both keep on insisting that the prices are the same in Manhattan and LIC. You are not comparing the same apt in a desirable location then. Also, are you even comparing condo to condo or perhaps co-op in Manhattan vs. condo in LIC...you should really be more clear in your assessment. And when I compare all costs for the same desirable location and building, yes, LIC is DEFINITELY CHEAPER than Manhattan. Instead of just saying that the prices are the same, give me an example of 2 buildings with the same prices.
I can tell you that a new development in Manhattan (whether upper east, west or downtown will start around $1250-$1300/sq ft and up for a 1 bed. Now a similar unit in LIC is in the mid $600-$700/sq ft range.
And if anyone wants to talk about the $1000/sq ft in LIC, which I assume is the Rockrose building, they haven't even started sales yet, so why even bother mentioning it until they open sales and see what they really list for? A good development in LIC (QueensWest area) is averaging $600-$700sq ft vs a Manhattan condo of $1300/sq ft.
If either of you can find a condo in Manhattan for the same price as LIC, please let me know...because I'm sure that I, along with many others will jump at the opportunity to buy it!

Plesae dco, stop sharing needless information and wasting space. For everyone else, please do your own research always and never take anyone's claims completely.

belugaw- Thanks for your concerns on behalf of people who like yourself refuse to accept the fact that LIC is no bargain. Next time take the time to read my posts. I have found many properties in Manhattan that are comparable. I have also made an analytical argument on how these spreads will continue to decrease. So instead of make statements that I have no idea what I'm talking about why not try to articulate why my analysis is flawed.

Talking about EC3 before it actually opens is exactly why sites like this exist. I didn't just make up the prices, they were leaked to several sites. Just because people have different views than yours doesn't make you any more right. Sites like these are here to encourage discussion and perhaps educate individuals who are on the verge of making the largest purchases of their lives. So excuse me if my analysis doesnt conform to you agenda. And if EC3 does open at $1100 sq foot then what will you say then. I'm sure it will be other excuse ti justify the price.

dco just keeps showing everyone how clueless he is. Print all the misinformation you want, but waterfront luxury new condos with Manhattan skyline views at 30-50% of the prices of similar Manhattan apartments are good investments. All your convoluted false analysis can't rebut that statement.
You keep talking about spreads decreasing. If the spread between Manhattan and LIC prices (now 30-50%) decreases, that makes the current prices a bargain. Anyone buying now would benefit if prices in LIC get closer to prices in Manhattan in the future. Also, you keep saying "As prices fall in Manhattan . . ." Where is this evidence of a downfall in Manhattan prices? There has been some mixed readings and maybe a slight softening of prices in some areas and continued increases in others.
One more thing, can you rent your parking spot out if you buy a spot in a condo building? Each condo's by-laws may differ on this, but I would be surprised if a building allowed someone to rent their spot.

I meant to say 30-50% less than Manhattan prices.

i agree that manhattan is not comparable to LIC.. however, a 20-30% difference in $/sqft doesnt make LIC a bargain. the dollar discount is warranted due to a variety of factors, and the spread isnt going to go away just like it hasnt gone away in williamsburg, hoboken, or other fringe neighborhoods.

that aside, im not sure what's being discussed here. sales in lic has more or less stalled. whether it is to a materially greater degree than manhattan, i dont know - but the proof is in the pudding. is anyone disagreeing with that?

dco - I have read your posts and that is the reason for my responses. The one property you list is in Sutton Place, which many people consider very undesirable. The east side of Manhattan lacks multiple train lies, also, as you get towards 1st Avenue, it's a 10 minute walk just to the subway, so highly inconvenient...and I can state this as I have lived in Murray Hill at one time and hated the commute. Please respond to me and list 2 comparable CONDOs in Manhattan and LIC with similar prices. Like I said before, if you can find it for me, I (along with many others) would buy it.
I can also state that your analysis is flawed because you are representing all "what ifs". Manhattan prices have not fallen yet and if they did, Brooklyn and LIC would both fall accordingly as well. Your arguments are as if Manhattan prices have dropped and the outer have remained the same is not reality.
Also, I have never stated whether LIC is a deal or not a deal, so there obvisouly is no agenda. I am simply trying to clarify for the others that your numbers are not real, such as your LIC at $1100/psf. Show us all a listing (PLEASE!) in LIC currently at $1100/psf. For now, the most expensive listings are in the $700 - $800/psf range, so let's just talk current events, shall we?
If not, then I would agree with you that if LIC goes for $1100/psf, the $200/psf difference to a Manhattan Luxury Condo is no deal at all.

belugaw nad cb81- I accept your analysis and encourage every one to buy in LIC can we be friends now.

Oh I almost forgot. Belugaw and Cb81 how do you feel about my analysis of why new development can't lower priceses?

I am not getting into the Manhattan versus LIC debate, but I do see a challenging market for new development in LIC. Despite the large inventory and limited demand in recent month (based on new contracts), they have not lowered their prices. My guess is that they are afraid spooking existing buyer, either with them walking away (losing deposit) or not getting the appropriate appraisal value. There will be some pain in the LIC over the next two years. At the same time, I do believe in the area long term potential.

I know Tolls Brother sent an email out a few weeks ago, offering to cover up to $20,000 in closing costs for either the developments in either LIC or Williamsburg. This jives with what dco is saying. Its a price reduction thats not really a price reduction.

p/h has been 5-10% negotiable, inclusive of a discount to the ask and closing concessions.. they been quiet about it, but this was the case several months ago and almost certainly is the case today. my guess is, they will have to do a headline price reduction in the same order of magnitude to get some of the 600k+ units moving.

My feelings exactly. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place. EC3 pricing is going to be interesting. Pricing at $600-700 with great views will see the building get visitors. Anything over $800 and the building will find it's self with in the same dilemma as the rest.

FYI- I agree that LIC has potential but having potential is not the same as proven talent. You pay top money for proven and a lot less for potential.

I agree that $800 psf is the current cap for LIC but I also feel that $600 is still a bargain. Anythign in the 600 - 700 psf in LIC seems to be moving. I think that it is wishful thinking to believe that we will see prices below $600psf (at least in the vernon/jackson area).

FYI - when I speak of LIC I refer to the waterfront area.

I think the only area worth anything is the waterfront. I think things did move at those prices-es last year. At these prices-es not much is moving. I do think that the waterfront is worth $550-600. Last year it sold at much higher levels. LIC has not even begun to see decreases. Below $600 is right around the corner or all those units will become rentals in the next 12 months. Just an opinion.

Sutton Place is undesirable?

Even though Powerhouse and 5SL are still selling units, even in the past month, three months and six months, at $700-800 psf, his "opinion" is that they are really only worth $550-600. Which he has been saying for months now even though he has been wrong the entire time.

LICComments- Read my posts I have said that the decrease will take time over the next 12-18 months. It's been about 4 months since I stated this and the real estate market in NYC is beginning to break. I have also posted that if in that time frame I'm wrong I will admit my analysis was wrong and agree you and others were right. I would just caution you to hold your flag for the next 8-12 months because if you haven't noticed inventory is climbing and prices are dropping.

LICComment- My analysis is just that. Don't get yourself all upset. It's just an opinion. LIC does have potential I just don't agree with the asking prices. I also understand that many of these units sold at $700-800, however that was in a very different market and would never see that volume in days uncertain market.

LIC psf was around $400 in 2003 which is where it is going to go back soon. People who buy now will have to wait for a while to see today's prices. It may never reach that price. Who knows?

That's my belief. Just in case people are not aware, prices do decline as well. Just had to get that off my chest.

LICComment- The article that I'm refering to is posted on one of the other titles.

You can only come to one conclusion after reading the entire article.

1. The developers are blaming the bad press. The job lose, credit crisis, and inflation have nothing to do with it. HHhMMmMMM.. I refer you to the below quote.
"I am still optimistic! But then again I am a developer!" Mr. Levine said.
2. Location, location, location.. Like no S@#t. You mean LIC, Dumbo.......
3. What's priced right sells. Really!!!!!!!. The problem is the price's keep falling.

"A senior executive for sales of condominium at a national sales brokerage firm, who asked not to be identified, said, "Anyone who tells you the market today is doing great is flat-out lying."

If anyone thinks that this is a positive report they need to have their head examined and is "flat-out lying

it think it was on curbed a couple days ago. it looks like all the south and west-facing units will not only lose their views in a couple years, but will have to endure years of massive construction ~70ft away.

http://www.nycedc.com/Web/AboutUs/OurProjects/CurrentProjects/HuntersPointSouth.htm

all still conceptual, but the city has been eyeing that tract of land for affordable housing.. probably just a matter of time before something pops up.