History Lesson Please

As a foreigner, I'm still learning about the dynamics of the New York marketplace. I'm trying to understand the dynamics of the SE index. We all know that this year has been busy and has seen some modest price improvement. What I'm trying to understand is whether there are comparable years in the past which may be insightful when you look forward to the following years. For instance, it looks like... [more]

As a foreigner, I'm still learning about the dynamics of the New York marketplace. I'm trying to understand the dynamics of the SE index. We all know that this year has been busy and has seen some modest price improvement. What I'm trying to understand is whether there are comparable years in the past which may be insightful when you look forward to the following years. For instance, it looks like prices lag events by 18 months or so. The financial crisis starts in early 2008 but the worst month year over year appears in Aug 2009 well after the event. Similarly, the dot-bomb bubble and monetary tightening in 2000 appears to have only flattened prices in 2002. What is the story of 2003, 2004, 2005? 2003 saw high volumes but not much price action. 2004 saw lower volumes but prices rocketed. Anybody care to guess whether 14/15 could look like 04/05? [less]