Today's Headlines

Stop posting these irrelevant news tidbits designed to scare potential buyers!!!

These have NOTHING to do with Manhattan real estate. They're not making any more land here in Manhattan, everyone wants to live here, especially foreigners who are getting great deals with the weak dollar.

Also, Manhattan prices don't go down. At worst, they will level off, then keep on rising, so BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!!!

wait - is that sarcasm, mmafia? If so, spot on my man. If not, then you really are the funniest person I have ever heard of.

Now that I think more about it, please respond, I need to know if you are being sarcastic or not.

May as well add into the mix the NYT headline that 1 out of every 11 U.S. mortages is in default. And dmag2020, even in posts sarcasm can be pretty easy to read sometimes.

Wait but can someone really be as stupid as you and mmafia in real life?

Is it possible?

dmag2020 =D

MMAfia is NEVER sarcastic, except when he claims that Martians are going to be buying into Manhattan real estate, because the Mars Lander has found oil, and they're going to run a long hose from the Martian arctic plain directly into the ExxonMobil refinery in Seacaucus. It's going to be a win-win for everybody.

great thread here. you guys really add so much to the board. thanks.

I feel like one of those drunks who wanders into the neighborhood dive bar at 11:00a.m. to find he knows every other sot already bellied-up and sipping a morning highball. Nice to see you stopping by the dank squalor of this place, too, ccdevi.

Now what happens if someone can't make the rental payment.

yes, stop posting useless info like that here. seriously. it adds NOTHING to the board.

largest unemployment jump since 22 years ago to 5.5%?

blah blah blah....

what has any of that have anything to do with Manhattan real estate? Stop posting fluff that just clogs this forum up.

Manhattan is different. Real estate here will not get affected by some recession fantasy. STOP SCARING POTENTIAL BUYERS!!!! STOP POSTING USELESS INFO!!!

believe it or not - I had a seller's broker try to suggest to me today that real estate prices will continue to increase. All I had to do was to look at how prices have continuously increased since 200_!!!

Brokers don't make much of a living telling you that the market is uncertain and may even be softening a bit and you could be better off waiting until the dog days of summer when sellers are getting concerned about properties that have sat around for 2-3+months to make any offers.

kylewest - point taken. :D

Being the "Bear" that I have been since October you would think that I would be happy about a day like this. The truth is that I'm not. I have been saying that things are a lot worse then most people can even imagine. At times people have mocked my analysis and others with similar opinions for their own personal reasons. I have only tried to explain why I have been very worried. I have said numerous times that I hope I'm wrong. I may still be proven to be wrong, however as the days go by it is becoming obvious that there is something seriously wrong with the economy. I find it amusing at times that people ignore the past. This country has been through a lot it's young age and this is going to be another notable chapter. If you actually read this and are wondering is this guy out of his mind the answer is yes. It's clear that in order to see the serious problem still ahead you would have see things that most don't. That was not meant to sound egotistcal, just that their are some people that can see separate events and have the ability to foresee the pattern. I pray I'm wrong because if I'm right there is going to be a lot of pain for an extended period of time.

All the drama. I've also said we're in for a rough patch since I've been on here beginning last October. I'm not an economist. I'm not all that clever or smart. I think it is pretty obvious if you listen and read. So what's the point? America is going to be a third world country in 20 years? If so, then no matter what you do now--invest in gold or buy RE--you're screwed. But if you have a reasonably long outlook and aren't speculating in the short-term, it still may be a good time to look for the right place at the right price. They exist. You need to be persistent, immensely educated in your RE market segment, and have patience. A bad couple of years means nothing if you want to live in a place for the next decade or two. Otherwise, it isn't rocket science to say you might hold off for a while. There's nothing new in ANY of this. The DOW is up one day, plunges the next. Watch the wild ride as credit still strives for equilibrium and the uncertaintly of the Presidential election keeps the markets jittery. Most important: don't over leverage yourself or get yourself into a situation you can't bail yourself out of. If you can't afford to be unemployed for 6-12 months, you have no business buying real estate on credit. You don't need an MBA to tell you that with things as volatile as they are--just common sense.

"At times people have mocked my analysis"

dco, you keep referencing your "analysis". Where is it? Is posting articles from CNN "analysis"? Is predicting the end of the earth "analysis"? Is saying that all of the interns are moving out of Manhattan "analysis"? Where is your "analysis"? How can people mock your "analysis" when no one has ever seen it?

dco, you are a treasure. the sincerity with which you claim to have had foresight on issues that have been widely discussed in the media for many months is startling

"as the days go by it is becoming obvious that there is something seriously wrong with the economy"

ya think? are you sure? thanks for letting us know.

kylewest- I agree with a lot of what you said. Yes markets go up one day and down another, however we are running out of reasons to go up. The dollar stinks, unemployment, the worse credit crisis the world has ever seen, banks closing (not just IB) inflation with little options for the fed ( do one thing effect the others) food price's, oil and gas ( you think buying gas for your car is expensive, just wait until you try to heat your house) just to name a few.

There are still other major problems not known yet like credit card debt, Helocs and credit swap debacle to name a few. Not to mention the ever shrinking tax base that has already started to force some municipalities into bankruptcy. What about Pension systems? Public works projects? Commercial real estate? Unemployment benefits? No health Insurance? Municipal workers (possible layoffs Police, Fire and other emergency workers.) Increase in unemployment means higher crime rates. ( property value will decrease further in most areas). I can on and on on on on on............

JM and ccdevi- please tell me that you are both brokers so it would at least explain why you can't see the snow ball effects of the situation.

News flash I have stated numerous times that conditions across the pond would lag us by about 6 months and guess what kids times up and Europe is in it's worse housing market since 1990 so far with it worsening weekly. How long until all those foreigners start to see their vacation homes in Manhattan to avoid foreclosure at home? My guess is not long. Then what? More inventory. More inventory means lower price's in Manhattan. What happens to price's in LIC, Park Slope, DT Brooklyn, Harlem, Williamsburg......? Congrats you guessed it price will drop significantly.

JM+ccdevi- these are just a few things and how the process works. I have said all of this for months now. My analysis started with the Miami real estate market. It was an indicator that things had gotten way out of control. Last summer developers were walking away from enormous projects because the demand was gone and they could no longer get the financing to finish the projects. It was actually funny reading all of the ridiculous posts about people saying that Miami is not Manhattan. Your absolutely right. They are 2 very different markets. What you guys missed is that the fundamentals are the same. Simply stated the banks started to notice that demand was gone and then started to realize that they were way in over their heads. So while you guys were laughing at people talking about Miami the truth is it was ground zero for the credit crisis.

dude you really dont get it. you're not saying and never have said anything novel, you watch tv and read the papers, and repeat, or at least try and repeat, what you've heard. you're not fooling anyone.

ccdevi- I think that it is you that are mistaken. Your whole argument is that Manhattan (NYC) real estate can never decrease. You and JM (along with others) have shown no support for your "sky is the limit mentalities" You spend all your time saying that everyone who thinks things are getting worse is stupid. It's actually quite amusing how you guys ignore all the indicators. I understand that you make your living lying to people, but please try not to embarrass yourself with every post.

I have one question, is the statement buy when there is blood in streets a total and complete fantasy of some idiot that knows nothing, or is it remotly possible that an opportunity could exist as we speak in the New York real estate market.You can never time a bottom, one thing is certain there are some buying opportunities out there.I love the people that say wait a year, maybe that is correct I don't know, having knowledge like that is pretty remarkable.I own 2 one bedrooms and rent them out and I am activly seeking another resale and am not afraid to pull the trigger. One thing is for sure it will be 7-10$ below ask and right now I am ready to make that commitment and collect my rent and have the tennant as always pay my mortgage

dco, please answer these two simple questions.

1) Have you ever been to Miami?
2) Can you point to one ccdevi or JuiceMan post that is bullish on prices, states that prices will go up up and away, or is bullish on today's market?

JM- Are you serious that you are not bullish on the market? Everything that I have posted you have protested. I understand that at times it may seem that my analysis is one of "the sky is falling". That's not my true intention, but there is no mistaken what my sentiment is about the economy and the NYC real estate market. Communicating through writing is often very difficult. You lose 90% of the message. My guess is that if everyone (bear or bull) actually were face to face for these debates we would find that we probably agree more with each other than disagree. I have always viewed your posts as one of positive re-enforcement about the markets (wallstreet or real estate). I hope this answers your second question. To go back and actually look for specific times would a waste of time. I'm sure there are many things that each one of us has said that just didn't come out the way we wanted and to post those won't be fare.

Yes I lived in Miami years ago. It is a much different place now. Is there something that you want to debate about my Miami analysis? I think that it is self explanatory above, but if you want to ask something go right ahead. If I don't know the answer I will tell you exactly that.

dco, since you have lived in Miami I'm interested to hear what you feel the correlation is between the two markets. Why would do you think Miami's issues are similar to Manhattan? You know why are "the fundamentals the same"? Where and when did you live there?

You still haven't answered my second question. Can you point to one ccdevi or JuiceMan post that is bullish on prices, states that prices will go up up and away, or is bullish on today's market? You say it is a waste of time to find specific posts but yet you have no problem making statements like:

"You and JM (along with others) have shown no support for your "sky is the limit mentalities" You spend all your time saying that everyone who thinks things are getting worse is stupid."

I would just like you to show me where I have said anything close to this. It is a very simple request dco. Can you do it?

Kylewest - Perfect analysis.

Zorter - you are absolutely right. The market is already soft, and it's time to negotiate hard, particularly on closing costs. The biggest change is that prices are not rising at astounding rates, though they are rising on average. Still, there are bargains to be had. You just may have to have the tenacity to "get to yes."

Those who are waiting for crashes may wait forever. And what future appreciation potential is there if there is indeed, "blood on the streets?"

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/realestate/08deal1.html?_r=1&ref=realestate&oref=slogin

With about 50% of the rental apartments in Manhattan being rent stabalized, with a huge percentage of Manhattan residents being renters, and with rent stabalization being phased out over the next decade or so, I think you'll see plenty of corner lots available for development in the upcoming years. Just look around, there's still a ton of space for development.

Add in the baby boomers letting go of their apartments, the development surrounding Manhattan and the decline in the household creation rate (tough times require roommates, or gasp, living with mom and dad), and things don't look too peachy. Why were the reports earlier incorrect? Well, duh, because this land and housing boom was being fueled by extremely easy credit (yes, even in Manhattan) and because it is incredibly painful to develop in Manhattan, which means our development tends to lag by a couple of years. There are only so many people who need a $1m one bedroom, or a $1.7m two bedroom (we won't even discuss the more expensive ones). And, now, there are fewer. And, I have to think, there will be even fewer in the next couple of years. And, a number of those who already purchased won't be able to afford what they bought, or the increasing taxes over the next five years.

Just for fun check out the new listing for 255 E. 71st. It's a townhouse that sold for $969,766 in 2004, and is now on the market for $9.5m. No amount of renovation is worth that kind of upswing in four years, in any market.

Take a look at this one:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/house/230-west-10-street-manhattan

The original listing (showing as "sold") was for $20 million. Then it stopped being sold - STREETEASY ARE YOU READING THIS? - and is now being re-not-sold for $18.5 million.

The owner - I know him - bought the place in 1999, more or less, for $660,000.

Fancy appreciation, that.