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Some interesting Economic Sound Bites

Started by JuiceMan
about 18 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
Discussion about
The U.S. currency rose to a three-month high against the yen after Bernanke said late yesterday that the central bank will ``strongly resist'' any waning of public confidence in stable prices. ``Strong'' economic fundamentals will translate to dollar strength, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in Washington. The dollar climbed 1.3 percent to $1.5448 at... [more]
Response by West81st
about 18 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

I think all we know so far is that the Fed will raise short-term rates to fight inflation - for which "supporting a strong dollar" is a handy euphemism- and that the dollar will rise. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

The worst case for real estate might be that, after a bunch of rate cuts that didn't do much for mortgages other than fatten spreads, a Fed tightening could send mortgage rates substantially higher.

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Response by JuiceMan
about 18 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007

West81st, would you anticipate a few "free" increases based on the artificial floor on current rates?

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Response by interested_buyer
about 18 years ago
Posts: 14
Member since: May 2008

So, Buy now and hold for 5-10 years?

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Response by West81st
about 18 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

JM: Good question. Probably depends whether that "artificial floor" is on rates or spreads. I tend to think it's on spreads, which means it's really a risk premium rather than an artificial constraint. You may think the market is mispricing mortgage risk at the moment due to an overcorrection, but it's hard to see how a Fed tightening would help resolve that problem. At best, the two things are probably independent.

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Response by zizizi
about 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007

You've lived through the past 12 months and you believe a word the fed is saying?

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Response by manhattanguy
about 18 years ago
Posts: 152
Member since: Mar 2008

i will look into buying USD and shorting oil as soon as oil crosses 150.

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