Some interesting Economic Sound Bites
Started by JuiceMan
about 18 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
Discussion about
The U.S. currency rose to a three-month high against the yen after Bernanke said late yesterday that the central bank will ``strongly resist'' any waning of public confidence in stable prices. ``Strong'' economic fundamentals will translate to dollar strength, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in Washington. The dollar climbed 1.3 percent to $1.5448 at... [more]
The U.S. currency rose to a three-month high against the yen after Bernanke said late yesterday that the central bank will ``strongly resist'' any waning of public confidence in stable prices. ``Strong'' economic fundamentals will translate to dollar strength, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in Washington. The dollar climbed 1.3 percent to $1.5448 at 2:53 p.m. in New York from $1.5646 yesterday, bringing the two-day gain to 2.1 percent, the most since Nov. 4, 2005. The dollar rose to 107.37 yen, the highest since Feb. 27, from 106.31 yesterday. Japan's currency traded at 165.98 per euro from 166.33. The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so,'' Bernanke said in a speech at a Boston Fed conference. ``The Federal Open Market Committee will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations.'' You are going to see the dollar rally over the next 12 months,'' said Michael Aronstein, chief investment strategist at Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Global investors are quite underweight the U.S. You could see the beginning of a real reversal of that'' [less]
I think all we know so far is that the Fed will raise short-term rates to fight inflation - for which "supporting a strong dollar" is a handy euphemism- and that the dollar will rise. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
The worst case for real estate might be that, after a bunch of rate cuts that didn't do much for mortgages other than fatten spreads, a Fed tightening could send mortgage rates substantially higher.
West81st, would you anticipate a few "free" increases based on the artificial floor on current rates?
So, Buy now and hold for 5-10 years?
JM: Good question. Probably depends whether that "artificial floor" is on rates or spreads. I tend to think it's on spreads, which means it's really a risk premium rather than an artificial constraint. You may think the market is mispricing mortgage risk at the moment due to an overcorrection, but it's hard to see how a Fed tightening would help resolve that problem. At best, the two things are probably independent.
You've lived through the past 12 months and you believe a word the fed is saying?
i will look into buying USD and shorting oil as soon as oil crosses 150.