Market Outlook

Hopefully, this is a bit clearer.

Coop
Coop Price
Price Per
Per Square
Square Foot
Foot Change CPI S&P 500

1988 361
1989 337 -6.6% 4.6% 31.5%
1990 345 2.4% 6.1% -3.2%
1991 304 -11.9% 3.1% 30.6%
1992 274 -9.9% 2.9% 7.7%
1993 263 -4.0% 2.8% 10.0%
1994 268 1.9% 2.7% 1.3%
1995 270 0.7% 2.5% 37.5%
1996 271 0.4% 3.3% 23.1%

what is your source for the no.s and why do they end at 1996 ? Thanks,

Topper- I understand that it's the normal thing to look at history for a relative model to explain the Who, What, Why and When of this debacle, however I don't see one. Everyday a new piece of data sinks to all time lows. I don't see how this credit crisis is anything like the past. So I wonder how people are so confident that this problem will take a similar path as a past downturn.

To put it in perspective this is a global slow down with inflation at the core. We have entered the tightest lending period in the history of the modern world. No one can even put a real figure on the lose. Everyday the lose mounts and banks lose tens of billions. $4/gal gas in the US will kill the consumer. What is going to happen when people get the heating bill for their homes. The oil crisis in the 70's was nothing like this. It wasn't based on supply and demand needs, it was geopolitical. Although inflation/stagflation was also a problem, it didn't have to deal with this credit crisis.

I think we are in uncharted waters and sea is getting angry.

DCO: Thanks for your input.

New York New York: It was from one of the major brokers - but I don't seem to have kept a record of which one. I have stats through 2002 - and then they just continued up and up but I couldn't find annual numbers anymore.

(First column is yearend, then coop price per square foot, and then change from prior year.)

1997 294 8.5%
1998 353 20.1%
1999 398 12.7%
2000 486 22.1%
2001 551 13.4%
2002 573 4.1%

I think coop prices are now around $1,100 per square foot and condo prices are at about a 25% premium to that.

I dont
understand
wtf your post
is trying to say

Google fonts (useful to use 6yr old data also, really drives it home)

Topper, thanks for replying. Was curious because if this sort of information were freely available, most brokers would go out of business in a week.

Re the likelihood of the early nineties repeating themslves...all we can say for certain is that this is Stage 1 of a Crisis. We know it's here and what fueled it. We don't know how deep it runs and what the stakeholders involved (Banks / Fed / Govt) plan to do. Everybody is working furiously to prevent the ship from tipping over. A lot is up in the air. Wait for some moves on the chessboard - Q2 results and reorg announcements, the unemployment and inflation indices which will be true and unbiased for the first time in July, the fate of the Govt bail-out bill, whether the Saudis will succeed in controlling oil prices, and then we will have some more concrete information to use as basis to predict recession pattern / economic forecast / real estate in Manhattan etc.