Even the High End is Struggling

You need a hobby.

I have one - annoying you with facts.

"I have one - annoying you with facts."

I can't believe you admit that. You really have no self respect.

That said, who ever said we weren't seeing price reductions in the high end. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if you're seeing a higher rate of reductions at the high end because it seems to me that sellers on the high end are even more aggressive with their pricing. I'm constantly seeing blurbs in the post and elsewhere about high end real estate being reducing from astronomical asking prices. Prices being reduced from asking prices doesn't prove anything, the asking price is just some number the seller came up with (maybe based on reality, maybe not). You need to compare prices to comps to see if there's a fall in the market. But you know that already.

"in the post and elsewhere"

You read The Post and you say I have no self-respect?

"Prices being reduced from asking prices doesn't prove anything, the asking price is just some number the seller came up with (maybe based on reality, maybe not)."

How come when there were auctions and multiple bids and the like it shows how strong the market is, but when asking prices are going down - by a lot - it doesn't show how weak the market is?

Or how come when prices were going up it was because of Wall Street bonuses, but now that there aren't any more, it will have no effect on prices.

Aren't listing prices supposed to be based on comps, not "just some number the seller came up with"?

Really! You people are beyond belief, beyond denial. The rationales I'm hearing from the few bulls left are getting stranger and stranger and stranger.

And more desperate.

I am not a bull.

"How come when there were auctions and multiple bids and the like it shows how strong the market is, but when asking prices are going down - by a lot - it doesn't show how weak the market is?"

Well I wouldn't use that as a sign that the market is strong, a strong market is indicated by rising closing prices.

"Or how come when prices were going up it was because of Wall Street bonuses, but now that there aren't any more, it will have no effect on prices."

How is this relevant to this thread. Answer, its not. Not to mention that I certainly never said this, who did? Or did you just make it up?

"Aren't listing prices supposed to be based on comps, not "just some number the seller came up with"?"

Whats "supposed to" have to do with it? Some probably are, many certainly aren't. In fact this indicates that you agree with my point, that you need to look at comps not asking prices. If an asking price was reasonable based on the comps then its relevant. If not then not. You're just taking the easy route because it fits in with your agenda.

You just continue to be intellectually dishonest in post after post. I don't understand whats so important to you about trashing this market that you act like that.

"you need to look at comps not asking prices."

Okay - listing prices are future, expected or desired prices. Comps are past prices. Past price is no indication of the future price, future expectations might not be reasonable.

I think, in fact, that not only are price expectations going down, but actual prices are.

I picked this example because of all the hype over the "high end," and how strong it was. Well apparently, even though there are $30 million properties listed, and only about 100,000 people in the WORLD have a net worth of $30 million or more, we're seeing some retrenching.

That's not intellectual dishonesty. It would be dishonest to continue to say that the high end remains firm, when it's not. And if it's not firm there, among people who can afford anything they want, then it's less firm elsewhere.

"Trashing the market": that's dishonest. I'm not trashing anything. I am and have been pointing out that things are out of equilibrium and they are correcting. It will be painful in the future, but it's absolutely necessary to restore the health of New York's economy. Bubbles are never good.

"Not to mention that I certainly never said this": Sneaky Pete did.

Steve if you are such an expert on RE why are you renting in Manhattan and own an underwater property in Fire Island. You would think that a RE genius like yourself would be able to find some great deals in this market.

"You would think that a RE genius like yourself would be able to find some great deals in this market."

Even malraux agrees that "deals" are hard to get.

Sorry - not underwater on Fire Island. Well above water, thanks for your concern!

I'm renting in Manhattan because it remains far cheaper than to buy - we've been through this, S.P. The gist of your argument is that it's smart to buy whatever the price is, but certainly you know that you don't pay your chauffeur to drive you around in your Prius a salary above what the service is worth. The worth of owner-occupied real estate is the price you would pay to rent it. When it's twice as expensive to buy as to rent, it makes no sense to buy.

Clear?

"I think, in fact, that not only are price expectations going down, but actual prices are."

I think thats probably right. Hard to imagine given everything going on in the economy that its not having a negative effect on the RE market.

"That's not intellectual dishonesty. It would be dishonest to continue to say that the high end remains firm, when it's not."

Well again I'm not sure about that. If the guy who bought the CPW apt for something like 30 and then I think I heard he immediately wanted 100, then takes 70, that is not an indicator that the high end isn't firm. You're drawing a conclusion about the high on suspect info. You may be right, and again given the economy, I wouldn't be surprised if you are, but its not necessarily demonstrated by falling asking prices.

""Trashing the market": that's dishonest. I'm not trashing anything."

C'mon steve. You don't just point things out. At every turn, it feels like every thread, you jump in with doom and gloom. You hijack threads. And of course while some of what you post is correct, you often manipulate numbers, etc and mislead.

"Sneaky Pete did."

So why did you quote it in response to a post of mine that had nothing to do with that?

Actually, ccdevi, I was the one who said that we weren't in a recession (a long time ago) and that I didn't think we would go into one. That's not "trashing": I call it as I see it.

"f the guy who bought the CPW apt for something like 30 and then I think I heard he immediately wanted 100, then takes 70, that is not an indicator that the high end isn't firm."

Here's what I did:

Sales in Manhattan
We found 140 listings for at least $5,000,000 where price changed less than 60 days ago
Median price: $7,500,000 Median size: 3,478 ft² Median price per ft²: $2,141

Sales in Manhattan
We found 18 listings for at least $5,000,000 where price changed less than 60 days ago price has increased
Median price: $9,122,500 Median size: 5,024 ft² Median price per ft²: $2,454

So if there are 140 listings where the price changed any amount up or down in the past 60 days, and only 18 of them were price increases, then there 122 were price decreases.

Then:

Sales in Manhattan
We found 778 listings for at least $5,000,000
Median price: $8,497,500 Median size: 3,700 ft² Median price per ft²: $2,301

That means that 15% of listings $5 million and over have had a decrease in their asking price (122/778). That's pretty significant, and certainly more significant than 15 CPW, one building, called the most successful condo project in the history of the world.

huh? Are you just not reading my posts? How is that responsive to what I said?

cc - shat are you doing? you might as well have a conversation with your soup spoon.

Quite responsive: you quote the most successful condo project ever: 15 CPW. I'm showing you that at the high end, 15% of properties over $5 million have had their list prices cut.

Absolutely responsive. These properties are not moving and people want to sell them. Otherwise, listing prices wouldn't go down.

A first sign of a collapsing high end market.

I guess you can't read. I say that reduced asking prices are not necessarily indicative of weakness in the high end (and I explained why), and you respond with what? Stats showing what % of apts have reduced their prices. Um no not responsive at all. you may disagree with what I said but your numbers don't address it at all.

And stop referring to 15 CPW, as if the fact that I chose that building is somehow misleading, more dishonesty on your part. I used one example to demonstrate that a reduced asking price doesn't necessarily mean that an apt lost value. I used that one because it was obviously quite high profile, many have probably heard about it and I knew about it, it could be any building.

oh and joepa, I know, you're right, I actually have the same reaction usually to a number of posters who engage him like this. I typically don't anymore but had some time and got caught up. Will try to refrain.

"its not necessarily demonstrated by falling asking prices" is what you said.

I said that 15% of these units is a material number of them. If it were one or two, who'd care, you'd be right, who'd care? Likewise, if we were in the multiple offer / auction scenario that we were in just a year or so ago, that would be material. If there were one or two apartments that had multiple bids that wouldn't be significant. But 15% sure as heck is.

It's the sheer volume of the drops that makes it important.

Will it mean that lots of people will lose money? Not necessarily. People will lose money on paper, but only people who bought recently and are forced to sell quickly will lose actual money.

"And stop referring to 15 CPW, as if the fact that I chose that building is somehow misleading, more dishonesty on your part."

Not dishonest at all. All the price increases in Manhattan for the past quarter were attributable to 15 CPW and the Plaza. A fact. So we have to move beyond them, and moving beyond them is not dishonest.

If there is evidence of softness on even the very high end, why fight it so much? Wouldnt even the insanely wealthy want two penthouses for the price of one. You bulls just make no sense. Your egos are so bound up in price wars and pissing contests on who can pay more, it's very sad.

Keep annoying them with facts Stevejhx.

Nonsense! Robert DeNiero, and wealthy foreigners, are going to swoop in and buy all of these condos! How dare you imply that the high end is struggling.

If you remove 15 CPW and the Plaza from the market, the market is much weaker than most people think, or want to think. But who cares? The only 2 buildings that matter in Manhattan are 15 CPW and the Plaza. Everything else can go to hell in a handbasket. Am I right???

Personally, you can't argue that the market is strong by only citing 15 CPW. It is a building like no other. During the intital sales, they raised the prices 19 TIMES! If any other builder would have done that, they would be sent to Bellevue in a straight jacket.

"Nonsense! Robert DeNiero, and wealthy foreigners, are going to swoop in and buy all of these condos! How dare you imply that the high end is struggling."

Couldn't have said it better than that! how DARE you!!!!!

Ralph Lauren's daughter, b/c she owns a candy store in TriBeCa.