23% of Manhattan List Prices Reduced in the Past 60 Days
Started by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Discussion about
Sales in Manhattan We found 2,058 listings where price changed less than 60 days ago Median price: $1,149,000 Median size: 1,100 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,097 Of which: Sales in Manhattan We found 249 listings where price changed less than 60 days ago price has increased Median price: $1,439,000 Median size: 1,178 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,312 This means that there were 1,809 listing price... [more]
Sales in Manhattan
We found 2,058 listings where price changed less than 60 days ago
Median price: $1,149,000 Median size: 1,100 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,097
Of which:
Sales in Manhattan
We found 249 listings where price changed less than 60 days ago price has increased
Median price: $1,439,000 Median size: 1,178 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,312
This means that there were 1,809 listing price decreases in the past 60 days. However:
Sales in Manhattan
We found 7,866 listings
Median price: $1,250,000 Median size: 1,153 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,160
So if there are 7,866 listings out of which 1,809 have seen listing price decreases, that means that 23% of all listings have had their asking prices reduced.
Is this a healthy market to you?
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Response by dledven
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 198
Member since: May 2008
i know that there are roughly 8000 apt available for sale at any given time, how many units are there in the city?
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
What does that matter?
The 5-year historic inventory level is 6,500. The 10-year average number of sales is about 8,000.
My point is that of current listings, 23% have cut their asking price.
So I turned to appraisal extraordinare Jonathan Miller for his best guess on how many residential apartment units there are here in Manhattan. His guesstimate, and it is just a guess so feel free to comment if you have a source for total residential units in Manhattan, is about 300,000 total units; that is all co-ops + condos. Remember, condops are co-ops with condo rules/bylaws.
Peeking at UrbanDigs Charts, I see total active inventory for Manhattan at about 7,763 right now. This would mean that only 2.5% of the total apartments in Manhattan are currently listed for re-sale (pie chart on right; assuming 300K total residential units + 850K total rental units; feel free to direct me to source that could confirm these #s)! Hardly a market that has a glut of inventory!
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Response by alpine292
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
From the Real Deal:
Condos on the chopping block
June, 02, 2008
As sales have slowed and inventory has grown, developers are clamoring to move new development condo units, many by adjusting prices.
Price cuts are outpacing price increases, and prices appear to be falling on the whole in the two most active boroughs for development, Manhattan and Brooklyn, particularly in Harlem and much of Brooklyn.
The Real Deal compiled a project-by-project and neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown of price changes among listings where there were price fluctuations during the past 90 days. Data was provided by StreetEasy, the home listing and data Web site. Listings excluded resales (see charts).
The data showed that 54 percent of Manhattan listings that saw a change in price had dropped their prices in the three months, and 64 percent of Brooklyn properties that had fluctuating prices cut theirs.
Although the actual average price changes in Manhattan were about three-and-a-half times more than the changes in Brooklyn, where there are more fringe neighborhoods and sales prices are lower, the average net price change was comparable at -$15,362 in Manhattan and -$14,516 in Brooklyn.
While the data show some price drops, Andrew Gerringer, managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman's development marketing group, said that the developers he is working with are negotiating, but not by not slashing prices.
"Developers are offering brokers more commission and paying closing costs," he told The Real Deal.
Although not all brokers readily acknowledge developers are adjusting prices, and the StreetEasy research is limited, (because it only covers a three-month period and the number of price cuts need to be considered relative to the initial prices), the data provide a glimpse into how market conditions are affecting pricing. The data was also impacted by big price cuts at a single development, which could affect totals for an entire neighborhood.
Manhattan
Manhattan held up fairly well over the three months ending May 15 with slightly more condo price decreases than increases. There were 178 increases with an average change of $146,483 and 208 decreases with an average change of $153,864.
Of all submarkets in Manhattan — Downtown, Midtown, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Upper Manhattan — only the Upper East Side, the most expensive market in terms of the average price per listing ($4.1 million), was in the black in terms of a net price increase ($106,436), meaning that on the whole, developers raised their prices more than they lowered them, StreetEasy determined. Percentage-wise, the Silk Stocking District also had the most price increases (27) relative to decreases (11).
"The Upper East Side, on a valuation basis, has not spiked as much as other popular and trendy neighborhoods, so it has a little more headroom for pricing," said Jorden Tepper, executive director of sales at Century 21 NY Metro Fine Homes & Estates.
Downtown Manhattan, which has a new development inventory that almost matches the size of all the other submarkets combined, saw the most price increases of all submarkets with 88, despite concerns about an inventory oversupply, particularly in the Financial District. A couple of projects contributed to the steep total, including River Ridge condos with 13 increases (and three decreases) and Tribeca Summit, also with 13 increases (and three decreases). As a result of a few large markdowns, the average net change, however, was -$18,128.
Upper Manhattan fared the worst in terms of the number of price reductions with 75, compared to only 14 increases. Harlem had 52 price decreases and six price increases.
"People who wanted to be on the Upper West Side were getting priced out and went farther north," said Sofia Kim, vice president of research at StreetEasy. So developers started building aggressively to meet demand. At the same time, current market conditions are putting pressure on prices in fringe outlying neighborhoods including Harlem.
"All fringe neighborhoods are suffering," said Darren Sukenik, an executive vice president at Prudential Douglas Elliman. "These fringe neighborhoods were successful in an inappropriately manic-driven market two years ago."
Of 29 Manhattan neighborhoods, more than half saw negative net changes.
After Harlem, Chelsea had the most price drops with 18.
"With Tribeca and Soho's stunning condo lofts coming to market month after month, Chelsea no longer has the allure it once did," said Jeffrey Tanenbaum, a vice president at Barak Realty. "Not to say Chelsea is passé, but it no longer is the most exciting flavor of the month." Tribeca saw 19 price increases and five price decreases. Soho was split with four increases and four decreases.
But in a testament to the allure of a good project, there were 22 price increases in Chelsea.
The greatest price cuts Downtown were in the West Village, where three changes brought the average net price change to -$2.2 million. The price decreases included the $2.5 million price slashing of Julian Schnabel's Palazzo Chupi's duplex from $32 million to $29.5 million and the $4 million cut in price at Hudson Blue at 423 West Street.
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Response by 80sMan
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 633
Member since: Jun 2008
urbandigs: there are 800,000 units in Manhattan. Manhattan has 1.6MM people and there are 2.0 people per household according to the U.S. census.
There are 3,110,000 units in NYC. How can Manhattan only have 300,000?
Selected Housing Characteristics
2006 American Community Survey (ACS)
New York City
Estimate Margin of Error
Total housing units 3,311,119 +/-729
Occupied housing units 3,020,284 +/-9,874
Vacant housing units 290,835 +/-9,933
Homeowner vacancy rate 2.0 +/-0.3
Rental vacancy rate 3.7 +/-0.2 2006 ACS
Selected Housing Characteristics
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Response by alpine292
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
80sMan,
The 300,000 figure from Miller only includes condos and co-ops. It EXCLUDES rentals, which make up the overwhelming majority of the Manhattan market.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
urbandigs, I respect most of your opinions, but do the same math for all the dwellings for sale right now in the United States and divide it by the total housing stock, and do the same thing for New York County (which includes a small portion of what we consider to be the Bronx, as well as Roosevelt Island).
According to the Census Bureau, in 2006, there were 126,316,181 total units of housing in the United States. The home ownership rate in 2000 was 66.2%. That means there 83,621,311 units of owner-occupied housing.
According to the National Association of Realtors, at the end of April 2008:
"Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 10.5 percent to 4.55 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 11.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 10.0-month supply in March."
If we assume the housing stock has gone up but also the home-ownership rate has gone down (both of which are true) so the figure stays about the same (83,621,311) that means that about 5% of all houses available are for sale.
Jonathan Miller is (yet again) talking out of his ass. According to the US Census, in 2006 there were 840,442 units of housing in New York County, with a 20.1% home ownership rate in 2000.
That implies approximately 170,000 units of housing for sale, of which 7,763 are currently for sale, meaning that 4.5% of all units available are for sale.
These figures aren't perfect (no figures are), but based on them (and the methodology is at least consistent) THERE IS NO MATERIAL DIFFERENCE in the percentage of total housing stock currently for sale in the US as a whole and in New York County. This is also borne out by the fact that both in the US as a whole, and in New York County, there is approximately an 11-month supply on the market.
But that's not the issue. The issue now is the rate of current sales - not closings, but units going into contract - versus the total inventory. Judging by how many listings have lowered their asking price, things ain't going into contract very fast, even at the tippy tippy top, $5 million plus.
You're looking at supply alone, forgetting about demand, and demand at what price. I think right now the most important factor is price-to-income ratio, based on the collapse of Wall Street. Second after that is the rent-to-price ratio, which is way, way out of line. Third is just the sheer price appreciation that has occurred since 2003.
What you can do to make your charts more accurate is to write a bot that interpolates how many units are currently going into contract, then extrapolate that to an annual pace. I think you can do that using the streeteasy data, comparing the daily difference between total number of listings and total number of listings not in contract. If you take that data daily for a few months, you will get a very clear idea of how many new units are being listed, and how quickly the supply is being removed from the market. You can then compare that to how many listings there are not in contract, and extrapolate the number of months that it will take to sell current inventory.
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Response by alpine292
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Correct me if I am wrong stevejhx, but are you giving the NAR more credibility than Jonathan Miller??? You have to be kidding me!!! Yeah, like David Lereah is smarter than Jon Miller!
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Neither NAR nor JM (JuiceMan - I bet!) are reliable. Streeteasy seems to be because it seems to be neutral (though it relies on RE agents to feed it data). Nybits.com is more reliable since it's an accurate gauge of market rents.
But the NAR figure is the only one out there, so we have to use it. Unless you know of a different one.
I'm sure the real figure is higher.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
alpine, are you giving cred to PDE?:
While the data show some price drops, Andrew Gerringer, managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman's development marketing group, said that the developers he is working with are negotiating, but not by not slashing prices.
"Developers are offering brokers more commission and paying closing costs," he told The Real Deal.
Yup. Paying closing costs. Giving away free ovens. Upgraded appliances. An Escalade for a year.
Or better: a Hummer.
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Response by urbandigs
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
does NYC include all 5 boroughs? I think this dataset includes all five.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
My datasets are for NY County, Urbandigs, aka Manhattan, + the part of the Bronx that is in NY County, & Welfare Island. Go to the census department, to NAR, & you will see that I am correct.
What you and J.M. (Jonathan Miller and/or JuiceMan) is incorrect.
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Response by urbandigs
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
well, first off we are talking Manhattan co-ops and condos only. So, for that post, we estimated 300K co-ops + condos of housing stock owner occupied, and 850K rental units, totaling 1.15M total units for Manhattan housing.
The newest census data for 2007 will be published at end of 2008/early 2009. If we have other more recent sources of data, lets see link. Inventory is fairly low using these numbers and will have to rise much more to get fierce seller competition. Not that you cant see a correction without this rise of inventory, as pockets of distress will certainly show up with desperate sellers doing what they have to move undesireable property even if it is in Manhattan. See an apt with no light, no view, and bad layout and even if it is in Flatiron it will be hard to sell at top dollar
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Response by Cletus
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 19
Member since: Jun 2008
What is Welfare Island?
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Response by gutter86
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 74
Member since: Mar 2008
Welfare Island used to be the name of Roosevelt Island, which is actually part of Manhattan.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
gutter is correct: welfare island is the former name of roosevelt island.
"Inventory is fairly low using these numbers and will have to rise much more to get fierce seller competition."
No urbandigs, using these numbers inventory is extremely high. "we are talking Manhattan co-ops and condos only."
Which is 99.1% of Manhattan real estate. Houses don't matter, it's immaterial in the figures.
UD, you've turned into a real-estate agent. Ignoring the facts as presented by the Census Bureau, NAR, & streeteasy, to say, "See an apt with no light, no view, and bad layout and even if it is in Flatiron it will be hard to sell at top dollar."
No.
No matter how you slice it, the market is in for a 50% correction. "pockets of distress will certainly show up."
It's not "pockets of distress." It's 15% of the +$5 million range have lowered their prices. Is that a "pocket of distress"? At that price level, THERE SHOULD BE NO DISTRESS. And 23% of all listings showing a cut in prices.
I can't believe that you're ignoring real figures from real sources, UD. I'd hope you'd do better. I know it's your livelihood, but I know when my business is slow & sinking, I'm the first to see it & adapt.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
UD, I find it telling that for the first time you didn't address this paragraph:
"What you can do to make your charts more accurate is to write a bot that interpolates how many units are currently going into contract, then extrapolate that to an annual pace."
You don't seem to want to. In a Suze Orman insightful moment, I think you don't want to b/c it will give you a result you don't want to know.
Which is that Manhattan is in a free-fall right now. According to the MTA tax data, NOTHING is selling. Properties are being taken off the market. Prices are falling, fast.
I showed you the official figures. Show me competing ones. Not ones that will come out in 2010, 3 years hence.
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Response by kylewest
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 4455
Member since: Aug 2007
Point of useless information: While Roosevelt Island is part of NY County (Manhattan), it's only road access is from Queens. That means Manhattan cops can't get to the island to respond to 911 calls, etc. so the island is actually served by the LIC precinct in Queens. Those Queens cops have to process all arrests from Roosevelt Island in Manhattan, though.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
But it's in the figures, in interest of full disclosure.
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Response by dumberthanyou
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 78
Member since: Jun 2008
i'm up at 1.45am. don't ask why. (i'll confess to you that i'm a loser.)
i've taken a second to tabulate steve's responses on this thread and the "case schiller april report just released". before the posts start counting off how many DAYS ago a person posted, it counts the number of HOURS ago the person posted. between this thread and the other one alone, steve posted 17 hours ago. then 14 hours ago. then 13, 11, 9, 9, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2 hours ago. let me repeat that: as of 1.45am, steve posted at the following times:
17 hours ago
13 hours ago
11 hours ago
9 hours ago
9 hours ago
8 hours ago
7 hours ago
7 hours ago
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
4 hours ago
3 hours ago
3 hours ago
2 hours ago
2 hours ago
and that's the last one, which comes to about 14 hours of continuous posting, and puts him in bed at approximately 11.30pm.
my question is: who the f is this loser that is POSTING pretty much ALL DAY LONG. i haven't even counted the OTHER threads he's posting on. so this guy seems to be on here ALL friggin day. STEVE, what do you do? are you a student? do you have a job? do you have a life? do you have any friends? do you have a clue? do you have any sense of what a loser you are? do you live all day on your soapbox? do you have a mother? do you spend all your days locked up in your fire island mansion eating spam and eggs? what the hell are you? are you like charles dickens -- paid by the word? are you human? do eat babies?
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Response by dumberthanyou
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 78
Member since: Jun 2008
please refer to the new thread "Stevehjx posts all day long.........................."
for a full update.
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Response by reaper
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 118
Member since: Oct 2007
Coops that seel real fast don't get a chance to be listed at Street Easy.
Mine wasn't...
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Response by reaper
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 118
Member since: Oct 2007
Coops that seel real fast don't get a chance to be listed at Street Easy.
Mine wasn't...
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Response by reaper
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 118
Member since: Oct 2007
I don't think coops or condos that sell REAL fast get a chance to be listed at times..
Mine wasn't.... I'd imagine more aren't...
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Response by reaper
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 118
Member since: Oct 2007
Coops that seel real fast don't get a chance to be listed at Street Easy.
Mine wasn't...
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Response by urbandigs
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
Steve - First off, I dont have time to sit here and respond to everything you write. I see you have time to respond to, and write new discussions every hour, but I dont.
Second, I tell you what I am seeing and I have never been one to back off for the sake of saving my business or to give misleading information. I have plenty of buyers, and I know when I can or cant find product for them, and how that product's price compares to past years. I do not think inventory here is high, if it was, I would see alot more options for all my buyers. You wrongly interpret that to mean I am now a real estate agent, babbling to promote Manhattan real estate. While inventory has surged, and I both predicted this in late 2007 and discussed it many many times, it is not at a level where sellers are fighting each other every other week to lower their price to 20% below past years comparable sales. That dynamic IS occuring in other markets as buyer demand just went completely away. Buyer demand did not go completely away here, putting aside what may occur down the road.
As for your bot idea, its an interesting one and I'll look into it. You know I am not a programmer and the guy I used has many projects lined up. So its not like I have a guy sitting around waiting for me to tell him what to do.
In February you started posting about the credit crisis saying stuff like, 'see, I told you this a few weeks ago...' Well, Ive been publicly talking about credit markets, the way the cycle will play out, the issue of the bond insurers, the damage that we will face after the credit hurricane passes, the banks coming major write downs, the capital raising and share dilution, abx's, corporate spreads, spread to higher quality debt classes, etc.. since last July/August on urbandigs in depth. So, I dont need to explain myself to you here on this forum. I tell you what I see, plain and simple. Why would I go out and predict a 50% inevitable drop like you are doing? Just to win your support?
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
UD, you're sounding very defensive.
You don't have to agree with me, but the numbers I posted are real.
"it is not at a level where sellers are fighting each other every other week to lower their price to 20% below past years comparable sales."
You're right. For now.
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Response by aboutready
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
Hi Urban,
Just a quick question, and it's one I've raised before. Historically, I don't believe that inventory levels have reflected both this kind of economic slowdown and building rate at the same time (well, other than the depression, and I hope it's not that bad). It is quite true that ownership rates in Manhattan are extremely low by national standards, but large numbers of rent-subsidized apartments are going to be exiting that program, and a fairly large number of condo units and conversions are still set to go on the market through 2010-11. I've been watching sales fairly closely, and it seems to me that with the exception of a few really high cachet properties, most are selling MUCH MUCH more slowly (if at all, uptown in Harlem), and 2-10% of the sold units in a few of the new developments are now bqack on the market. And, many Wall Street employees may need to sell. So, my question is, doesn't it seem as if we're hitting the market saturation level for new constructions condos? If so, I don't even want to begin noting the possible ramifications.
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Response by alpine292
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2771
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"According to the MTA tax data, NOTHING is selling."
I'm sorry, but since when is the MTA the accpeted authority for judging the strength of the market?
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Response by alpine292
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2771
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"Yup. Paying closing costs. Giving away free ovens. Upgraded appliances. An Escalade for a year."
Don't all apartments come with ovens, regardless if the market is weak or strong?
"Or better: a Hummer."
Actually, sellers are giving away Priuses and free chaffeurs for a year.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
You're right alpine, mea culpa, mea culpa. Just because the MTA relies on the conveyance tax for a portion of its revenue does NOT mean they know how many properties are being conveyed.
I'm so dumb. Where did I ever see that correlation?
"While the data show some price drops, Andrew Gerringer, managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman's development marketing group, said that the developers he is working with are negotiating, but not by not slashing prices. "Developers are offering brokers more commission and paying closing costs," he told The Real Deal.
I ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY 100% AGREE WITH THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF PRUDENTIAL DOUGLAS ELLIMAN'S DEVELOPMENT MARKETING GROUP.
Is that clear? ESPECIALLY when he says, to paraphrase, "Okay maybe there's some data that show price drops, those aren't REAL data. The real data comes from the salesperson - a.k.a. moi - who says that developers - the people that pay my salary - AREN'T negotiating because they DON'T WANT TO. Instead, we'll pay our brokers - a.k.a. moi - more commissions."
Sounds like a great idea. Makes 100% sense to me. Instead of lowering the price to get somebody to buy, we'll pay the salesperson more to sell. Given that salespeople have this knack of going out onto the street, and identifying THE person who will pay 110% of list price so the salesperson can get not a 6% commission, but a TEN PERCENT COMMISSION.
i know that there are roughly 8000 apt available for sale at any given time, how many units are there in the city?
What does that matter?
The 5-year historic inventory level is 6,500. The 10-year average number of sales is about 8,000.
My point is that of current listings, 23% have cut their asking price.
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/06/the_manhattan_inventory_argume.html
So I turned to appraisal extraordinare Jonathan Miller for his best guess on how many residential apartment units there are here in Manhattan. His guesstimate, and it is just a guess so feel free to comment if you have a source for total residential units in Manhattan, is about 300,000 total units; that is all co-ops + condos. Remember, condops are co-ops with condo rules/bylaws.
Peeking at UrbanDigs Charts, I see total active inventory for Manhattan at about 7,763 right now. This would mean that only 2.5% of the total apartments in Manhattan are currently listed for re-sale (pie chart on right; assuming 300K total residential units + 850K total rental units; feel free to direct me to source that could confirm these #s)! Hardly a market that has a glut of inventory!
From the Real Deal:
Condos on the chopping block
June, 02, 2008
As sales have slowed and inventory has grown, developers are clamoring to move new development condo units, many by adjusting prices.
Price cuts are outpacing price increases, and prices appear to be falling on the whole in the two most active boroughs for development, Manhattan and Brooklyn, particularly in Harlem and much of Brooklyn.
The Real Deal compiled a project-by-project and neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown of price changes among listings where there were price fluctuations during the past 90 days. Data was provided by StreetEasy, the home listing and data Web site. Listings excluded resales (see charts).
The data showed that 54 percent of Manhattan listings that saw a change in price had dropped their prices in the three months, and 64 percent of Brooklyn properties that had fluctuating prices cut theirs.
Although the actual average price changes in Manhattan were about three-and-a-half times more than the changes in Brooklyn, where there are more fringe neighborhoods and sales prices are lower, the average net price change was comparable at -$15,362 in Manhattan and -$14,516 in Brooklyn.
While the data show some price drops, Andrew Gerringer, managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman's development marketing group, said that the developers he is working with are negotiating, but not by not slashing prices.
"Developers are offering brokers more commission and paying closing costs," he told The Real Deal.
Although not all brokers readily acknowledge developers are adjusting prices, and the StreetEasy research is limited, (because it only covers a three-month period and the number of price cuts need to be considered relative to the initial prices), the data provide a glimpse into how market conditions are affecting pricing. The data was also impacted by big price cuts at a single development, which could affect totals for an entire neighborhood.
Manhattan
Manhattan held up fairly well over the three months ending May 15 with slightly more condo price decreases than increases. There were 178 increases with an average change of $146,483 and 208 decreases with an average change of $153,864.
Of all submarkets in Manhattan — Downtown, Midtown, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Upper Manhattan — only the Upper East Side, the most expensive market in terms of the average price per listing ($4.1 million), was in the black in terms of a net price increase ($106,436), meaning that on the whole, developers raised their prices more than they lowered them, StreetEasy determined. Percentage-wise, the Silk Stocking District also had the most price increases (27) relative to decreases (11).
"The Upper East Side, on a valuation basis, has not spiked as much as other popular and trendy neighborhoods, so it has a little more headroom for pricing," said Jorden Tepper, executive director of sales at Century 21 NY Metro Fine Homes & Estates.
Downtown Manhattan, which has a new development inventory that almost matches the size of all the other submarkets combined, saw the most price increases of all submarkets with 88, despite concerns about an inventory oversupply, particularly in the Financial District. A couple of projects contributed to the steep total, including River Ridge condos with 13 increases (and three decreases) and Tribeca Summit, also with 13 increases (and three decreases). As a result of a few large markdowns, the average net change, however, was -$18,128.
Upper Manhattan fared the worst in terms of the number of price reductions with 75, compared to only 14 increases. Harlem had 52 price decreases and six price increases.
"People who wanted to be on the Upper West Side were getting priced out and went farther north," said Sofia Kim, vice president of research at StreetEasy. So developers started building aggressively to meet demand. At the same time, current market conditions are putting pressure on prices in fringe outlying neighborhoods including Harlem.
"All fringe neighborhoods are suffering," said Darren Sukenik, an executive vice president at Prudential Douglas Elliman. "These fringe neighborhoods were successful in an inappropriately manic-driven market two years ago."
Of 29 Manhattan neighborhoods, more than half saw negative net changes.
After Harlem, Chelsea had the most price drops with 18.
"With Tribeca and Soho's stunning condo lofts coming to market month after month, Chelsea no longer has the allure it once did," said Jeffrey Tanenbaum, a vice president at Barak Realty. "Not to say Chelsea is passé, but it no longer is the most exciting flavor of the month." Tribeca saw 19 price increases and five price decreases. Soho was split with four increases and four decreases.
But in a testament to the allure of a good project, there were 22 price increases in Chelsea.
The greatest price cuts Downtown were in the West Village, where three changes brought the average net price change to -$2.2 million. The price decreases included the $2.5 million price slashing of Julian Schnabel's Palazzo Chupi's duplex from $32 million to $29.5 million and the $4 million cut in price at Hudson Blue at 423 West Street.
urbandigs: there are 800,000 units in Manhattan. Manhattan has 1.6MM people and there are 2.0 people per household according to the U.S. census.
There are 3,110,000 units in NYC. How can Manhattan only have 300,000?
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36/3651003.html
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/pdf/census/acs_select_hous_2006.pdf
Selected Housing Characteristics
2006 American Community Survey (ACS)
New York City
Estimate Margin of Error
Total housing units 3,311,119 +/-729
Occupied housing units 3,020,284 +/-9,874
Vacant housing units 290,835 +/-9,933
Homeowner vacancy rate 2.0 +/-0.3
Rental vacancy rate 3.7 +/-0.2 2006 ACS
Selected Housing Characteristics
80sMan,
The 300,000 figure from Miller only includes condos and co-ops. It EXCLUDES rentals, which make up the overwhelming majority of the Manhattan market.
urbandigs, I respect most of your opinions, but do the same math for all the dwellings for sale right now in the United States and divide it by the total housing stock, and do the same thing for New York County (which includes a small portion of what we consider to be the Bronx, as well as Roosevelt Island).
According to the Census Bureau, in 2006, there were 126,316,181 total units of housing in the United States. The home ownership rate in 2000 was 66.2%. That means there 83,621,311 units of owner-occupied housing.
According to the National Association of Realtors, at the end of April 2008:
"Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 10.5 percent to 4.55 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 11.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 10.0-month supply in March."
If we assume the housing stock has gone up but also the home-ownership rate has gone down (both of which are true) so the figure stays about the same (83,621,311) that means that about 5% of all houses available are for sale.
Jonathan Miller is (yet again) talking out of his ass. According to the US Census, in 2006 there were 840,442 units of housing in New York County, with a 20.1% home ownership rate in 2000.
That implies approximately 170,000 units of housing for sale, of which 7,763 are currently for sale, meaning that 4.5% of all units available are for sale.
These figures aren't perfect (no figures are), but based on them (and the methodology is at least consistent) THERE IS NO MATERIAL DIFFERENCE in the percentage of total housing stock currently for sale in the US as a whole and in New York County. This is also borne out by the fact that both in the US as a whole, and in New York County, there is approximately an 11-month supply on the market.
But that's not the issue. The issue now is the rate of current sales - not closings, but units going into contract - versus the total inventory. Judging by how many listings have lowered their asking price, things ain't going into contract very fast, even at the tippy tippy top, $5 million plus.
You're looking at supply alone, forgetting about demand, and demand at what price. I think right now the most important factor is price-to-income ratio, based on the collapse of Wall Street. Second after that is the rent-to-price ratio, which is way, way out of line. Third is just the sheer price appreciation that has occurred since 2003.
What you can do to make your charts more accurate is to write a bot that interpolates how many units are currently going into contract, then extrapolate that to an annual pace. I think you can do that using the streeteasy data, comparing the daily difference between total number of listings and total number of listings not in contract. If you take that data daily for a few months, you will get a very clear idea of how many new units are being listed, and how quickly the supply is being removed from the market. You can then compare that to how many listings there are not in contract, and extrapolate the number of months that it will take to sell current inventory.
Correct me if I am wrong stevejhx, but are you giving the NAR more credibility than Jonathan Miller??? You have to be kidding me!!! Yeah, like David Lereah is smarter than Jon Miller!
Neither NAR nor JM (JuiceMan - I bet!) are reliable. Streeteasy seems to be because it seems to be neutral (though it relies on RE agents to feed it data). Nybits.com is more reliable since it's an accurate gauge of market rents.
But the NAR figure is the only one out there, so we have to use it. Unless you know of a different one.
I'm sure the real figure is higher.
alpine, are you giving cred to PDE?:
While the data show some price drops, Andrew Gerringer, managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman's development marketing group, said that the developers he is working with are negotiating, but not by not slashing prices.
"Developers are offering brokers more commission and paying closing costs," he told The Real Deal.
Yup. Paying closing costs. Giving away free ovens. Upgraded appliances. An Escalade for a year.
Or better: a Hummer.
does NYC include all 5 boroughs? I think this dataset includes all five.
My datasets are for NY County, Urbandigs, aka Manhattan, + the part of the Bronx that is in NY County, & Welfare Island. Go to the census department, to NAR, & you will see that I am correct.
What you and J.M. (Jonathan Miller and/or JuiceMan) is incorrect.
well, first off we are talking Manhattan co-ops and condos only. So, for that post, we estimated 300K co-ops + condos of housing stock owner occupied, and 850K rental units, totaling 1.15M total units for Manhattan housing.
The newest census data for 2007 will be published at end of 2008/early 2009. If we have other more recent sources of data, lets see link. Inventory is fairly low using these numbers and will have to rise much more to get fierce seller competition. Not that you cant see a correction without this rise of inventory, as pockets of distress will certainly show up with desperate sellers doing what they have to move undesireable property even if it is in Manhattan. See an apt with no light, no view, and bad layout and even if it is in Flatiron it will be hard to sell at top dollar
What is Welfare Island?
Welfare Island used to be the name of Roosevelt Island, which is actually part of Manhattan.
gutter is correct: welfare island is the former name of roosevelt island.
"Inventory is fairly low using these numbers and will have to rise much more to get fierce seller competition."
No urbandigs, using these numbers inventory is extremely high. "we are talking Manhattan co-ops and condos only."
Which is 99.1% of Manhattan real estate. Houses don't matter, it's immaterial in the figures.
UD, you've turned into a real-estate agent. Ignoring the facts as presented by the Census Bureau, NAR, & streeteasy, to say, "See an apt with no light, no view, and bad layout and even if it is in Flatiron it will be hard to sell at top dollar."
No.
No matter how you slice it, the market is in for a 50% correction. "pockets of distress will certainly show up."
It's not "pockets of distress." It's 15% of the +$5 million range have lowered their prices. Is that a "pocket of distress"? At that price level, THERE SHOULD BE NO DISTRESS. And 23% of all listings showing a cut in prices.
I can't believe that you're ignoring real figures from real sources, UD. I'd hope you'd do better. I know it's your livelihood, but I know when my business is slow & sinking, I'm the first to see it & adapt.
UD, I find it telling that for the first time you didn't address this paragraph:
"What you can do to make your charts more accurate is to write a bot that interpolates how many units are currently going into contract, then extrapolate that to an annual pace."
You don't seem to want to. In a Suze Orman insightful moment, I think you don't want to b/c it will give you a result you don't want to know.
Which is that Manhattan is in a free-fall right now. According to the MTA tax data, NOTHING is selling. Properties are being taken off the market. Prices are falling, fast.
I showed you the official figures. Show me competing ones. Not ones that will come out in 2010, 3 years hence.
Point of useless information: While Roosevelt Island is part of NY County (Manhattan), it's only road access is from Queens. That means Manhattan cops can't get to the island to respond to 911 calls, etc. so the island is actually served by the LIC precinct in Queens. Those Queens cops have to process all arrests from Roosevelt Island in Manhattan, though.
But it's in the figures, in interest of full disclosure.
i'm up at 1.45am. don't ask why. (i'll confess to you that i'm a loser.)
i've taken a second to tabulate steve's responses on this thread and the "case schiller april report just released". before the posts start counting off how many DAYS ago a person posted, it counts the number of HOURS ago the person posted. between this thread and the other one alone, steve posted 17 hours ago. then 14 hours ago. then 13, 11, 9, 9, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2 hours ago. let me repeat that: as of 1.45am, steve posted at the following times:
17 hours ago
13 hours ago
11 hours ago
9 hours ago
9 hours ago
8 hours ago
7 hours ago
7 hours ago
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
4 hours ago
3 hours ago
3 hours ago
2 hours ago
2 hours ago
and that's the last one, which comes to about 14 hours of continuous posting, and puts him in bed at approximately 11.30pm.
my question is: who the f is this loser that is POSTING pretty much ALL DAY LONG. i haven't even counted the OTHER threads he's posting on. so this guy seems to be on here ALL friggin day. STEVE, what do you do? are you a student? do you have a job? do you have a life? do you have any friends? do you have a clue? do you have any sense of what a loser you are? do you live all day on your soapbox? do you have a mother? do you spend all your days locked up in your fire island mansion eating spam and eggs? what the hell are you? are you like charles dickens -- paid by the word? are you human? do eat babies?
please refer to the new thread "Stevehjx posts all day long.........................."
for a full update.
Coops that seel real fast don't get a chance to be listed at Street Easy.
Mine wasn't...
Coops that seel real fast don't get a chance to be listed at Street Easy.
Mine wasn't...
I don't think coops or condos that sell REAL fast get a chance to be listed at times..
Mine wasn't.... I'd imagine more aren't...
Coops that seel real fast don't get a chance to be listed at Street Easy.
Mine wasn't...
Steve - First off, I dont have time to sit here and respond to everything you write. I see you have time to respond to, and write new discussions every hour, but I dont.
Second, I tell you what I am seeing and I have never been one to back off for the sake of saving my business or to give misleading information. I have plenty of buyers, and I know when I can or cant find product for them, and how that product's price compares to past years. I do not think inventory here is high, if it was, I would see alot more options for all my buyers. You wrongly interpret that to mean I am now a real estate agent, babbling to promote Manhattan real estate. While inventory has surged, and I both predicted this in late 2007 and discussed it many many times, it is not at a level where sellers are fighting each other every other week to lower their price to 20% below past years comparable sales. That dynamic IS occuring in other markets as buyer demand just went completely away. Buyer demand did not go completely away here, putting aside what may occur down the road.
As for your bot idea, its an interesting one and I'll look into it. You know I am not a programmer and the guy I used has many projects lined up. So its not like I have a guy sitting around waiting for me to tell him what to do.
In February you started posting about the credit crisis saying stuff like, 'see, I told you this a few weeks ago...' Well, Ive been publicly talking about credit markets, the way the cycle will play out, the issue of the bond insurers, the damage that we will face after the credit hurricane passes, the banks coming major write downs, the capital raising and share dilution, abx's, corporate spreads, spread to higher quality debt classes, etc.. since last July/August on urbandigs in depth. So, I dont need to explain myself to you here on this forum. I tell you what I see, plain and simple. Why would I go out and predict a 50% inevitable drop like you are doing? Just to win your support?
UD, you're sounding very defensive.
You don't have to agree with me, but the numbers I posted are real.
"it is not at a level where sellers are fighting each other every other week to lower their price to 20% below past years comparable sales."
You're right. For now.
Hi Urban,
Just a quick question, and it's one I've raised before. Historically, I don't believe that inventory levels have reflected both this kind of economic slowdown and building rate at the same time (well, other than the depression, and I hope it's not that bad). It is quite true that ownership rates in Manhattan are extremely low by national standards, but large numbers of rent-subsidized apartments are going to be exiting that program, and a fairly large number of condo units and conversions are still set to go on the market through 2010-11. I've been watching sales fairly closely, and it seems to me that with the exception of a few really high cachet properties, most are selling MUCH MUCH more slowly (if at all, uptown in Harlem), and 2-10% of the sold units in a few of the new developments are now bqack on the market. And, many Wall Street employees may need to sell. So, my question is, doesn't it seem as if we're hitting the market saturation level for new constructions condos? If so, I don't even want to begin noting the possible ramifications.
"According to the MTA tax data, NOTHING is selling."
I'm sorry, but since when is the MTA the accpeted authority for judging the strength of the market?
"Yup. Paying closing costs. Giving away free ovens. Upgraded appliances. An Escalade for a year."
Don't all apartments come with ovens, regardless if the market is weak or strong?
"Or better: a Hummer."
Actually, sellers are giving away Priuses and free chaffeurs for a year.
You're right alpine, mea culpa, mea culpa. Just because the MTA relies on the conveyance tax for a portion of its revenue does NOT mean they know how many properties are being conveyed.
I'm so dumb. Where did I ever see that correlation?
"While the data show some price drops, Andrew Gerringer, managing director of Prudential Douglas Elliman's development marketing group, said that the developers he is working with are negotiating, but not by not slashing prices. "Developers are offering brokers more commission and paying closing costs," he told The Real Deal.
I ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY 100% AGREE WITH THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF PRUDENTIAL DOUGLAS ELLIMAN'S DEVELOPMENT MARKETING GROUP.
Is that clear? ESPECIALLY when he says, to paraphrase, "Okay maybe there's some data that show price drops, those aren't REAL data. The real data comes from the salesperson - a.k.a. moi - who says that developers - the people that pay my salary - AREN'T negotiating because they DON'T WANT TO. Instead, we'll pay our brokers - a.k.a. moi - more commissions."
Sounds like a great idea. Makes 100% sense to me. Instead of lowering the price to get somebody to buy, we'll pay the salesperson more to sell. Given that salespeople have this knack of going out onto the street, and identifying THE person who will pay 110% of list price so the salesperson can get not a 6% commission, but a TEN PERCENT COMMISSION.
What BS.