building at 100 Avenue A

Think they will move at 20 percent discount to list. Prime village with no view is low 2k for new small development. 12 east 13, 17 east 12, 37 east 12.

Wait, many in contract. Not sure at what discount.

But when were those comps? If 2015, things are slowing down. Also not sure who the small apartments are appealing to, people shopping for 2 BRs want space, not 1000 sq ft. and the 1 BRs are really studio sized at 600 sq ft. Maybe they'll get investors who dump them all back on the market as rentals...I could see it being attractive to youngish renters who want to live downtown.

Ack they actually crammed 2 BRs into 811 sq ft in one apartment--so the BRs are really like closests. http://streeteasy.com/building/100-avenue-a-new_york/7b My take is these are being bought by investors and not anyone who is actually going to live there.

CCL3 - The area is still hopping for rentals and I think compared to the sizing of a lot of the other rental units in the immediate vicinity they are not as undersized as they may seem if comparing them to other Condo new developments in other areas. So investor purchases make sense (NB that is not a comment on the value of an investor purchase on a purchase price vs. possible rent basis).

CFL, these are latest contracts. Most recent at 2300 per st Ashley Olsen. High maintenance and taxes. 37 east 12. Unit 3.

2300 per sq ft

30y, does thIs suggest that under supply in basic 1000- 1300 sq ft 2bed 2 bath bedroom is finally showing up in prices?

Not necessarily. I just think it shows that this product was not out of line with the demand in this neighborhood.

Undersupply in 2 BRs has been showing up in prices for the past 2 years. I know because I am in the market for one. But not in this neighborhood and not for less than 1200 sq ft.

Undersupply in 2 BRs has been an issue Downtown forever. I remember back in 1986 a day didn't go by where some agent didn't walk into the office and exclaim "There are NO 2 BRs available".

30y, you mean 2 bed rooms which are affordable under $2mm. There are plenty of high-end new developments downtown with price of 2bed over $3mm.

ccl3, You may get a coop with poor light for 1200 a sq ft in the village. You have to realistically pay $1500 per sq ft for anything decent without views for a coop.

CCL, What about this?
http://streeteasy.com/building/42-west-13-street-new_york/4bc

Thanks for the suggestion, but I have no desire to gut renovate and old place and don't really care about living in a trendy area. I have a "measly" 1.8m to spend and am looking at gut reno condo conversions in other area of manhattan or new developments in brooklyn to get something in that price range. Or I may wait out the market another year or so as supply catches up and sellers are forced to be more flexible on pricing.

http://therealdeal.com/2016/03/18/by-the-end-of-2017-manhattan-will-have-5-years-of-excess-inventory-report/

CCL3, You are paying a 10% marketing premium in new construction. Why not look at some condos which sold in the last 5-10 or so years back in Midtown east in the 50s? The pricing is more reasonable. You may hit 1500 per sq ft with negotiation. Do not be afraid to bid 10% or more lower if you do not see much traffic at the open house and the property has been on the market for more than 2 months. Also, you can use Keith Burkhardt to get a rebate.

I read the link you posted. Some of the oversupply is already reflected in the prices which have come down by 10-20% plus for many new developments. In addition, the author recognizes that he is extrapolating a very slow period of sales. Lastly, some of the projects will get cancelled, or get converted to rentals/hotels etc.

I am still looking at resales, but i'm not keen on 10 yr old appliances and people who have put in built ins, and then undoing the decor choices of the prior owners etc. So it's a possibility but new is obviously much more attractive. I am not in a rush and I still think there will be more price chops to come. For example this 2 BR at the Sutton has been on the market for 426 days with no listed price adjustment yet:
http://streeteasy.com/building/the-sutton-959-1-avenue-new_york/8p
They have only sold out half the building and have about 60 more units to sell.
Then they are competing up First avenue with Citizen 360, which has sold 11 units out of 84. Here's a comparable 2 BR there for 200k less: http://streeteasy.com/building/citizen360-360-east-89th-street-new_york/5b?featured=1

And now the Kent is starting sales at 95th and 3rd. That building is more luxurious but they will have about 100 units to sell, entering the market at the wrong time. So I think there will be more downward pressure until things reach my price range with negotiation.

Good luck CCL. I would take the listing prices as negotiable. Just make a bid 10% lower for a lower floor apartment and you may get lucky.

Thanks!

Oh I forgot about the Halcyon too, over on 51st and 2nd, though they got to market earlier and look to be about 75% sold. Started reductions on remaining inventory though. http://streeteasy.com/building/halcyon-condominium/3f

Lot of wasted space in 3f!!! Hallway to master bed. I would take the more room in living room than the current very large master bedroom.

True, but 1600 sq ft is still a large apartment.

As 300_mercer mentions, an example of what you can get in a coop in your price range http://streeteasy.com/building/the-st-mark/7e

and your monthlies are much lower than a new condo

I have been looking at co-op listings as well and that one is not typical. Most need significant upgrades and have high maintenance (esp. land lease buildings) and/or require more than 20% down. Then there are some with great looking upgrades but when you see the apartment the views out the window are directly into a brick wall. :/

The most important thing here is Ben Shaoul's totally unscrupulous approach to development and management. See lawsuits at The A Building, being sued for $50MM by his own parents, etc., etc. He's next in line after Croman for a grab by the AG. Magnum = shitty homes

Hi 30_yrs, hope you've been well.

I looked up the lawsuit.

http://therealdeal.com/2010/04/20/massive-headaches-at-the-a-building-developed-by-ben-shaoul-and-rob-kaliner-at-421-east-13th-street/#

To be fair, how much of that is the fault of the developer and how much is the fault of the construction contractor (or is it a failure of oversight on the developer's part)? I don't know much about liability apportionment for real estate defects. I'm curious because I have been looking at some of Magnum's condo conversion projects in Manhattan. They have done many, many projects and I'd be curious if there were problems at others as well.

I think it all goes back to the developer. Developers can increase their profits by choosing cheap construction contractors who might be out of business by the time defects show up. It seems to me to be the same as your personal renovation contractor on a much larger scale; the ones who have good reputations, long history of quality, good insurance, etc. are expensive. You can always take a chance on a young one who is talented and hasn't had a chance to make their reputation yet and it could work out fabulously, but it is risky. Granted all developers will have a headache and a miscellaneous litigation here and there, but if you see a pattern, it is something to consider. I don't know anything about this developer or his litigation history; I didn't even read the link above. My point is simply to answer the question that if anything goes drastically wrong with a project, I think it all goes back to the developer. However, I welcome input from and defer to other posters on here (e.g., 30yrs, NWT, etc) who have significantly more experience and expertise on these issues.

Tenemental's got it right. Ben Shaoul = Stay away

Expect to pay the highest price per square foot for the neighborhood at the time of market.
Expect floorplan square footage to be exaggerated more than the industry standard.(of 8% to 10%)
Expect developer punch list after the opening to be long both in size of list and duration to cure, if at all.

I think even his parents sued him once.

This sounded good. Parents' first complaint against Ben: https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=y7jtgbwSxbzJTN/lQoSTgA==&system=prod

Amended complaint, even better: https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=XJKubQkhhyUx606OG5BHwA==&system=prod

There is a rather extreme shortage of contractors/builders/crafts people right now due to the enormous amount of building going on. I think you can expect almost all new projects to have defects as a result. You just can't get the quality/quantity of trades people to work on any project that you could when there wasn't this extreme amount of projects going on.

Are there any developers that have good reputations vis-a-vis offering and honoring warranties or has the norm gone to disclaiming everything? I remain fascinated by buyers of these new development units - beyond my comprehension.

Me too. My only rationale explanation is lot of dirty money being parked and heavy marketing. That said, I am seeing some high quality product for sale at low $2000 per sq ft.

I think no news is good news when it comes to developers.
Shaoul seems to have lots of smoke surrounding him and his projects so there has to be some fire to it.

Another former project of his I just remembered.
There are 3 forum threads at bottom of page.
http://streeteasy.com/building/133-west-22-street-new_york