The Edge

Nearly $1k / sqft, for an apartment which is very far from the subway (the L)... Given its inconvenience, the group of people propping up prices is probably limited (and a lot of those people have probably moved to Williamsburg already) - most people would not be OK with such poor access to subways / Manhattan. Of all the real estate fads, Williamsburg is the one I find most confusing...

Would wait out williamsburg. Fringe areas will feel effects of economy first and most, especially if they are over priced and there is a glut of supply. Agree that Edge appears to be quality.
Wondering if anyone can tell me how much of a discount one can expect if paying all cash? Thank you.

Hi ap307,

There are units in the $750/sq ft price point. Those are the ones we are looking at.

From the Bedford train station, it's probably only a little over a 5 minute walk to the development.

i've posted on the Edge before and it is, imo, significantly better than northside piers. it seems to be the premier product in williamsburg. my issues (some of which you alluded to) are 1) its "scheduled" to be completed in 09, 2) there is high inventory in williamsburg. 3) these may be competitive or cheap for manhattan high end comps but they are NOT cheap in any way for brooklyn. i looked at a 1300 sq ft 2 br for $1.2mm. >$900 ppsf seems way to high. 4)horrible horrible economic conditions and my thought that the outlying nyc areas are first/hardest hit. i own in manhattan and i'm glad at this moment that i own there rather than, say park slope.

of all of williamsburg, i believe its the place to be - especially on manhattan view apartments. between now and late '09 will their offering prices come down some? i would think it's likely.

ingenieur,

From current listings, the average price is $971 per sqft. There may be some outliers (and I would be suspicious as to why there would be apartments selling for 25% less than average), but this building still looks pricey..

I'm very openly biased about this, but if you're looking for a slightly safter bet, you should at least look at Downtown Brooklyn. Prices are much better, (less than $750 per sqft on average), and IMHO, the potential value is much greater as well (given all the development that is ongoing, and planned for the next few years). Again, I'm biased, but if you look at some of the buildings, like Toren, they also appear to be of quite high quality, while being much more convenient in terms of Manhattan access. Just my two cents...

The Edge appears to be the highest quality new development in Williamsburg from an engineering perspective. Personally, I'd wait a bit, until they get the floors in place, before I made an offer. The market isn't running away from you. I think they have only 10% of the units in contract. Take advantage of the fact that you no longer have to buy new construction sight unseen. When I bought my place pre-construction a loong time ago, I was in the building with a hardhat and a inspector checking out the floors, walls, wiring, elevator, etc.. before I signed. Nowadays you're expected to look at a blueprint and a rendering and so 'OK'.

It's only three blocks from the subway. Not so bad. Better than 440 Kent where you have to take a shuttle bus to the train.

Q: "Wondering if anyone can tell me how much of a discount one can expect if paying all cash?"
A: No standard answer. Cash is essentially the same as waiving a mortgage contingency. You may not get any discount at all. What is does do for you is it potentially makes you a more attractive buyer and the seller may elect to sell to you instead of a less qualified buyer who makes a slightly higher bid. Of course, if you are asking in the context of a co-op, your overall liquidity still matters. Spending every cent you have on the purchase and leaving yourself less than two years worth of financial reserves post-closing does not necessarily enamor you to a co-op board. And if you do all cash because your credit is poor won't necessarily overcome that problem in a co-op, either. It's the overall picture that matters.

i'm also concerned about the lower income rental that both "Edge" and "Northside piers" have.

Hi stash17, do you think prices will go down while they have contracts out? Wouldn't that impact the buyers with contracts getting loans since closing is not until close to end of '09?

ap307, we have seen Toren and feel the same way regarding quality. But we do prefer W'burg's more neigborhood feel compared to DoBro. To each his own, of course.

80sMan, I do feel waiting is the smarter move but I'm thinking (and this is pure speculation on my part)The Edge might be able to at least minatain their pricing given it's advantage over other devs in terms of quality, amenities, and location.

nyccondo, IIRC, the requirements for rentals are 30K for single and 100K for a family of 4.

Hi! I've been to the EDGE sales office and the quality is really amazing. As for the low income concerns, i have been told that the renters will not have any access to the EDGE amenities and will have separate access from the main buildings. Apple is even considering renting the retail space there!!

http://racked.com/archives/2007/10/10/are_apple_and_barneys_sniffing.php

What I like about the edge is its proximity to the subway, the neighborhood feel of Williamsburg and the property being located in the "prime" Williamsburg area - (North and off Bedford where most of the shops, restos are)..and since state parks will be built by 2009 beside the edge (the parks will be different from the actual promenade of the edge), not only will it reduce the supply of waterfront properties that can be built in that area but it will be ideal for taking bike rides!!

prple777, I did hear about the state parks north of The Edge. This and the esplanade being developed at The Edge should make for a pleasant environment in the area.

ingenieur - well, obviously that's the downside risk scenario. its a tough market. you can never tell till they're 100% sold.

I bought at the Edge earlier this year and pretty much agree with what has been said above with regard to praise and concerns. The Edge is about a 7 minute walk from the Bedford L station, if you walk straight down N 6th st. Northside Piers is one block farther south, so also not too bad. In LIC, the View is about a 10 minute walk from the Vernon Blvd 7 station. All of these are reasonable but granted that in NYC, a 1-2 block difference in proximity can mean a major difference in desirability. But as far as accessibility to the subway from the waterfront, I don't think you can do much better than a 6 minute walk. Maybe DUMBO, Brooklyn heights, FIDI. If living near the subway is that important, you probably shouldn't be considering a waterfront property.

The fact of the matter is that NYC has never properly valued its waterfront property so it did not invest in infrastructure to support residential development, but that is quickly changing with the plans to redevelop the waterfront from Williamsburg to LIC, subsidize the WaterTaxi, etc.

Hi minicooper24, what is your take on pricing at The Edge? Do you think prices will come down? Are there other new waterfront developments in the area (with the exception of Northside Piers)? As I understand, there will be state parks north of The Edge so new developments at that waterfront will be limited. If that is the case, then maybe The Edge is a relatively safe bet due to its location and the low supply (of waterfornt property)? (This is assuming of course that there is demand for waterfront property.)

Hi ingenieur. The Edge is definitely pushing the "upper edge" of the envelope in terms of psf for some of their units, but in my opinion, it was fairly priced because they are also at the "upper edge" of the Williamsburg/LIC market in terms of amenities, design and location. I don't know whether prices will come down at the Edge. It's possible, but I think the Edge will be partially shielded from the downturn that is affecting much of the more inland new construction in Williamsburg and LIC. Though it's hard to tell for the Edge, because they do not reveal their sales online. But, you should also keep in mind that though median prices for new construction are likely to drop over the next few quarters, part of the explanation is that the unsold units are less desirable and the developers have not felt a need to cut prices until completion is near. So yes, if you wait, you will probably get an apartment for a lower price, but it may not necessarily be the apartment that you want. The best valued apartments tend to go early, in my opinion.

As for other watefront developments besides Northside, there is the Domino Factory which is several blocks further south, in a much earlier stage of development, but is likely to rival the Edge in terms of amenities, but is in a much less desirable location (in my opinion). Also, there will some "cannibalization" as phase II development starts at both Northside and Edge, which will make it harder for buyers to sell their phase I developments within a few years. And eventually, the city plans to develop the entire waterfront between Williamsburg and LIC, so there will be plenty of waterfront supply through the next economic cycle. Once all that waterfront property is developed, though, there is no more, and prices will skyrocket, but I think you will need to be able to hold onto that property for 10-15 years to that realize that potential value.

minicooper24, thanks for the insights. My fiancee and I are looking at the 2BR/2BA units with courtyard views (as opposed to the river views). They are more in line with our budget and they seem to be priced competitively compared to other devs in Williamsburg. We'd like to wait but as you've stated, we might miss out on the unit that best suits our needs. Also, we are looking to make it our home for at least 10 years so hopefully the economic climate will be better by then.

You're comment on the development of the waterfront between Willamsburg and LIC is interesting. Do you have any idea when this is supposed to take place? Or are we seeing the initial stages of it?

Hi Ingenieur. Just wanted to share with you my OH experience over at LIC this weekend. Although, the condo developments by the LIC waterfront were impressive, my hike from 45th Road Court House to the waterfront area was disappointing- there were not enough restos, groceries or even pharmacies. Although the sales agent at Rockrose said that groceries will be built, as well as a Duane Reade, i did not get the same neighborhood feel as I did in EDGE area in Williamsburg.....there you can get coffee shops, restos, bars, and a neighborhood vibe that is definitely alive day and night!

It's very early in the Willamsburg-Greenpoint waterfront development, but the planning has been ongoing for years. Check out this link for more details.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/greenpointwill/greenwaterdevelop1.shtml

The plan is to construct residential buildings along with a continuous riverside park extending from the Williamsburg Bridge to Long Island City. It will take many years to develop, and there are bound to be hiccups along the way, such as environmental issues with the industrial sites along the way. Not that anyone is asking for my opinion, but personally, I think the Greenpoint waterfront area should be reserved for commercial, or mixed residential-commercial development, a la, the meatpacking district. Too much residential development could turn the waterfront area into another Battery Park City, leaving the remainder of the inland areas undeveloped. Whereas a vibrant commercial waterfront district would spur inland development.

minicooper24, all of Williamsburg from the bridge, north to McCarrent park and east to the BQE is developed. There are 90 (ninety) new developments in that area (check New Developments in streeteasy). There isn't a single street in north Williamsburg without at least one new development. The danger is overdevelopment, not underdevelopment.

80sMan, I was just talking about the waterfront. I agree that there is too much residential development, and not enough commercial development throughout all of Williamsburg, Greenpoint and LIC. The entire waterfront from Red Hook to Bayside will eventually be developed. It is inevitable and surprising to me that it hasn't already occurred. The waterfront properties have been fully developed in cities like London and Paris, though of course, they've been around a lot longer than NYC.

minicooper24, thanks for the link.

prple777, yes, I have seen the waterfront devs in LIC. Still prefer The Edge becuase it's located in what is IMHO a better neigborhood.

Yes,I agree. I have proposed that we develop the area with the boating industry. I think if we developed the waterfront for pleasure boating and yachting, we would see massive development in the area. We need specialization. It is industrial and manufacturing as well.

Just got an update from Streeteasy on the Edge and it appears 20 units have been taken off the market by the developer. Any color on this? Uh oh...

stash17, they seem to be all back in there except for 1. The 20+ taken off was in the "SALES" tab but have since disappeared and re-appeard back under "active listings".

All 48 are now active again. Strange...must've been just a mistake.

A partial list of Williamsburg waterfront developments:

Con Edison Plant
Schafer Landing North
Schafer Landing South
Domino Sugar Factory
Broadway and Kent
80 Metropolitan
Northside Piers
The Edge
111 Kent
The building next to 111 Kent (people have moved in, I don't know what it's called)
173 Kent
184 Kent

The place should be a lot nicer when the city adds more riverfront parks. Not sure how much more development the area can absorb right now.

Wow! That's a lot of development. Which in your opinion has the best location?

80sMan, is the ConEd Plant a go? I know they've talked about it, but didn't know if they'd started work on it. Also, anyone buying at 111 Kent and expecting it to be true waterfront property better be aware that the Edge will take your views before you even have them.

ingenieur, the better locations, IMO, are anything above Metropolitan. It starts to get a little grimier as you move towards the southside. If you really want to be on the waterfront, Kent Ave becomes pretty much deserted (residentially speaking) above N10th or so, but that will most likely be built up in some fashion down the road. If you like Williamsburg and don't need the waterfront, there are a few projects worth looking at as well, west of the BQE. I bought on Berry St and find that it's a nice balance between being close to the subway and everything on Bedford, as well as having quiet immediate surroundings and proximity to all the good stuff along Berry and Wythe.

bjw2103, we went to quite a few new devs in W'burg and found The Edge to have the best product(in terms of location, amenities, and quality). We are leaning towards making a purchase there.

Regarding more development north of The Edge, I read somewhere that there will be parks along the waterfront all the way to N12 (and beyond). I could be wrong.

ingenieur, the Edge is the best location and probably the best quality construction in North Brooklyn. It's one of the only union built projects in Williamsburg. The Edge is the building with the plumb lines.

There is a privately owned building (4 story) across from 111 Kent, on the East River State park (river) side of Kent. Don't know what's going to happen to this building. If something big goes up, might block some 111 Kent views.

The Con Ed plant is a go and demolition is under way. The additional Northside Piers buildings are also underay. So much development on Kent, I can't believe it.

Does anyone have any recent info about # of units sold at the Edge? I saw that streeteasy has 48 active listings, but I'm pretty sure those are just representative floorplans listed on the Edge website rather than a complete listing of available units.

minicooper24, according to the developer, Levine, "almost 100" have been sold (read that somewhere but can't remember where). I've also asked a salesperson recently and she said 90 units.

great! 465 units to go.

actually, 475.

The inventory throughout NYC is going to be insanely higher in the next 12 months. Those 475 units are not counted in the inventory figures until they are released for sale. Now multiply this by hundreds of developments throughout the city. Inventory would double or triple overnight if all those units were released at the same time. Now figure in the tighter lending standards and it's going to be a collapse.

Thanks ingenieur, that sounds like a reliable number. It seems like sales have slowed down at the Edge as well. When I bought around April, there were about 50 sold, as I recall. So the units are moving at a snail's pace - at about the same rate as Northside Piers - but at least they haven't completely stalled as they have at some other developments. The crazy days of selling out in the pre-construction phase are probably over. Still that doesn't necessarily spell doom and gloom as some people would have it. It just means that they probably won't sell the bulk of their units at current prices until the market recovers. Could they lower prices now to sell more units? Yes. Maybe they already have on some units, but a more likely scenario is that they will play the waiting game and hope the market recovers by the time they are slated for completion in late 2009 (ie, probably more like early 2010). If they have not sold most of their units by then, their banks will probably put pressure on them to lower prices.

minicooper24, found the article: http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/shouldering-the-costs.

Just do a find on "Levine" if you're not interested in reading the entire article.

Judging from his comments, he will probably try to ride this crisis out.

minicooper24- The problem is, that the worse will be hitting in 2009-2010. It takes that long for things to deteriorate to its lowest levels. You will see the bulk, in the next 18 months, and then the deterioration will slow, however continue. Then price will remain flat for years making the bottom obvious, which is contrary to what the "RE. Marketing Machine" wants you to believe. The banks are already putting pressure on the developers and are beginning to cut funding. Some of these developments will falter in the next 12 months. No or little money coming in from sales will put a strangle hold on their ability to make payments to the banks. This in turn will make the banks, concerned about their investment and cut future funding, which is essential to the completion of the project.

sorry dco, but i don't see the point of debating this with you. i've read your other posts on other threads and i think you have an overly pessimistic view of the real estate market in nyc. furthermore, this discussion is about the Edge and not the overall market.

minicooper24- OK- Forget the debate. Just stick to the facts. Edge about 575 units to be built. 90 units sold (alright, lets say 100) that leaves 475 more to go. That's just the EDGE, Good Luck. If you haven't realized you bought at the top then I suggest you buy another, after all their unique and on the waterfront.

dco, i did not buy at the top of the market. if you think that april 2008 was the top of the market you have had your head up your *ss. we were well on our way down by then, and i knew that we had further to go, but i bought anyway, because the particular unit i made an offer on was a great value and would have sold even in a down market, and the developers agreed enough to increase the offering price for the line 3 times. but more importantly, you don't seem to realize that people buy homes for reasons besides investment purposes. i bought into the edge, not because the market was going up or down or sideways, but because i like the design (LEED certified is icing on the cake), i like the neighborhood (both as it is, and as it will be), i love the waterfront location and the view from my unit, i respect the builders who are local and have a solid track record with large developments (Gansevoort Hotel, 325 Fifth Ave, among others), i was impressed by the unique amenities (glass-covered indoor pool with views of the empire state building, warm "stone walk" to a separate waterfall diving pool and communal fire pit, full spa, indoor basketball/volleyball court, nintendo Wii room, etc) as well as the "standard" amenities (gym, screening room, billiards, yoga room, etc), and yes, also because i think in the LONG-TERM it will be a good investment. besides, i don't plan on selling it - i plan on living in it, then renting it out or passing it on to my children.

feel free to respond with your usual misleading facts. :-)

hi minicooper24 good to see you here. i saw your post on my other "edge" posting way after but your tips were helpful. thanks. in the end, i decided to hold off and hold onto my 20% down payment until thing stabilize a bit and actually i know someone who had bought as an investment in northside piers (next to the edge) so i'm subletting from him in the meantime. it's a nice building and so far so good, except the noise from the constant construction work monday to saturday is really horrible and not conducive to sleeping in the morning... they're working from 6am-6pm (although they're supposed to start after 7am but they're usually there before).

also the walk from the subway is a pain - 10 minutes. good to know since the edge will be facing very similar conditions if and when i decide to buy. construction projected through at least 2012 and probably beyond... but otherwise i'm enjoying my new apartment.

i also had a few issues w/ the edge that were keeping me on the sidelines: phase II blocking many of the views and the rentals next door... plus i still think things are overpriced and the "no negotiations" position is a definite turn-off.

minicooper24: also out of curiosity, which line did you buy and will your views remain after phase II goes up?

hey nyc08, your other post was what inspired me to start using the discussion forums on streeteasy, but having been here for a few weeks now, i have to say i am a little dismayed by the amount of bs that gets thrown around by people who systematically go through each discussion and trash new developments, and ridicule people who have bought or are considering buying. i hoped that the discussion forums would offer as useful and reliable data as the rest of streeteasy, but it seems that a small group of doom-and-gloomers tend to dominate the discussions. it makes you wonder what their motivation really is... are they really trying to save people from financial ruin out of pure altruistic tendencies, or are they secretly hoping to precipitate a crash so that they can buy into the same buildings they are trashing.

anyway, i'm glad you found a suitable living solution at northside piers. the rentals at northside piers actually seem pretty reasonable at around $2200 for a 1BR on streeteasy. i also understand your concerns about the edge, especially about pre-construction. unless a particular unit caught your fancy, and was on the verge of selling, i don't think there's any advantage in buying pre-construction, especially in this market. i had the same concerns about the views being obstructed by phase II, especially for the North building. but the "L" line which i bought will not be affected by phase II. it's a relatively small 1br, but it will fit me (my kitten and my minicooper) perfectly. all of the "L" units on lower floors had already sold in the first weeks before the developers pulled the line and increased all the prices, so i got in just in time. the current pricing on the line is now very high - at an astronomical $1300 psf for the 23rd floor unity - but i believe the price of the lower floor units now decrease by $10,000 per floor, so you can still get a good deal if you fancy the apartment as much as i did. as for the "no negotiation" rule, i doubt they can keep that up, if they ever did - EVERYTHING is negotiable. just to plug the "L" line a little more, all of the floors should have amazing direct, unobstructed city and river views, as well as two corner floor to ceiling windows, and a balcony that directly faces the water. I think the only phase I units that will have better views will be the "C" and "D" lines but those are $1,000,000+ 2br units, and those views will be affected (marginally) by phase II. Phase II at edge and northside will probably all have unobstructed views, similar to "The View" in LIC, but I couldn't wait that long, and by the time they start selling those units, I expect the market will have recovered by then so the mark-up relative to phase I will be significant.

Just wanted to share this link about the sales over at the EDGE. They are doing pretty well, apparently.

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2008/07/the_edges_sales.php

> Maybe DUMBO, Brooklyn heights, FIDI. If living near the subway is that important, you probably
> shouldn't be considering a waterfront property.

You basically contradicted yourself... particularly the first two. Definitely near the subway (closer than anything you're talking about in WB) and definitely some waterfront properties...

prple777 100 contracts signed out of 575 total units under construction. That's less than 20% sold, if all the contracts close.

I

Newbie question alert...

When do developments usually sell most of their units? Pre- or post-construction?

Its a good thing that there aren't 20 other buildings' worth of unsold condos in the neighborhood...

"You basically contradicted yourself... particularly the first two. Definitely near the subway (closer than anything you're talking about in WB) and definitely some waterfront properties..."

Not exactly true. It's pretty much the same walk from the Edge to the Bedford stop as it is from 1 Main to the York stop, as well as from Cranberry St to the Clark St stop - even confirmed this on hopstop (all take 6 mins). On top of that, I'd venture that the L is slightly more useful that the 2/3, which are more useful than the F, but individual needs are obviously quite different from person to person. Financial District (although not as nice a place to live as any of these) has way more options however.

Ingenieur, most developments are financed 75-80% by a construction loan from a bank (the rest comes from the developer and his capital partners). The loan is generally due within 12-18 months of building completion. As a result, developers typically have a timeline that they must meet to sell units (not to mention the additional interest expense, HOA dues, RE taxes, etc that they are paying in the meantime). Furthermore, depending on the structure of the deal with his partners, the developer is also incentivized to hit certain return hurdles in order to receive incentive fees. So, there is usually a fair amount of pressure to sell a majority of the units before the delivery of the building. Of course, I have no idea what pressures this specific developer might be under.

TenthStreet, thanks. Very interesting.

But generally speaking, when do new devs usually hit their peak sales? I would think post-construction (or whenever there are actual units available for open houses) since more people would not want to buy sight-unseen.

Ingenieur, over the past five years, sales have most certainly peaked before delivery. The idea is that there's a scarce supply of new construction, and that in a rising price environment the risk of buying sight-unseen is amply repaid by appreciation that occurs before closing. In the last several years, buying post-construction has generally meant buying the least desirable units. So yes, a vast majority of new construction buyers have bought sight-unseen over the past several years. Some people think this dynamic will change in today's environment, some don't.

ingenieur, definitely agree with TenthStreet here. In the past couple of years, the play was to get in pre-construction, as losing out on the better layouts and views was perceived as a greater risk than testing out the market and waiting for price drops. Now, that game is quite different - I think most people are quite wary of buying pre-construction. You'll see this pretty much exclusively for the top tier desirable buildings (535 WEA, maybe even some of the Edge, although I'm cringing putting it alongside 535 right now). I recently bought new construction but waited for the building to be nearly 100% finished before committing. I think it's much easier to get away with that now and still come out with the layout/view you want. Don't confuse this with prices dropping - I don't think they are in the better new devs as of now, but there definitely isn't that rush to get in before someone snags the place you want.

They've sold 78 units. Even with contracts out on top of this, they're still well below 100.

Thanks for the insights TenthStreet and bjw2103.

tanker, who was your source?

Ingenieur - I can only say that my source is firsthand, and current. It's difficult to say what percentage of the contracts out will actually end up in signings, but even if it's 100% that still leaves them with barely over 90 units sold.

The development is an attractive bull-market product, but potential buyers have to ask themselves unemotionally how much risk they're willing and able to absorb in an environment like this. All of these factors must be cause for pause: (1) significantly slowing unit sales, (2) possible difficulties in securing a mortgage if sales stay well below the 50% mark (they're at 14% now), (3) rapidly rising mortgage rates and deepening credit crisis, (4) impending steep fall in Wall Street employment and bonuses, further dampening real estate demand. The environment for luxury real estate like this, particularly in the outer boroughs, seems likely to deteriorate over the next year.

Tanker - you are spot on. When I originally called Douglas to inquire about the project the psf price was going to be $850-$900. I think they were overoptimistic in 2007 setting prices, which are now locked in due to loans.

Expect those numbers to come down.

ofbrooklyn - Douglaston is, as you know, very confident on the pricing front. With closing costs (none of which will Douglaston cover), many units will run you over $1000 psf. I don't see how they can avoid bringing prices down in 2009, but they are doing their level best to convince the marketplace otherwise.

If you want to see something truly frightening, look at the sale agent's (The Developers Group) ads in the Sunday Times. It has a giant yen, euro, and dollar sign, under which are the words "Universal Value." Nothing at all is said about the development itself. If this is how they want to position The Edge, they need a sanity check. The idea that foreigners looking for a weak-dollar investment play will buy condos in Williamsburg is far fetched.

This development is beautiful and trendsetting, yet woefully overpriced and mistimed in this market. To pay ~$1,000 psf in brooklyn (even if on the water) is crazy.

If you have have the cajones to buy in this development in this market, good luck - you're bolder than I am.

"cajones" = "drawers" as in "dresser drawers."

"cojones" = "chutzpa."

FYI.

And here's the point about the real "inventory" numbers:

"South Edge, a 30-story tower, will house 370 residences"

48 are listed. None is in contract. Ergo....

stash17 - Very much agree. I almost lost my wits, and seriously considered buying there precisely for the pluses you spell out. And they might actually have had me, had they shown the slightest element of graciousness and humility in negotiations. But these guys are still living in 2006. They really seem to drink their own Kool-Aid - that if you walk away, a dozen others are lined up behind you. But guess what: I walked, and there's still no line . . .

stevejhx, I agree with your overall point, but know that they aren't listing signed contracts at the Edge yet. Although I take what they say with a grain of salt, they're saying they've sold somewhere between 80-100.

This quote from the chairman of The Edge developer was in the May 8 edition of The Sun:

"In our Williamsburg development, the 575 market rate condominiums in our first phase of the Edge, we have entered into 65 contracts during the first 30 days of marketing," the chairman of Douglaston Development, Jeffrey Levine, said."

If true, this means that they only signed 13 more contracts between early May and the end of July.

For those who follow The Edge or Williamsburg in general:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08142008/realestate/will_power_124316.htm

When I go to the Edge's website and click on availabilities, there are only 5 studios, 12 1 beds, 23 2 beds, and 6 3 beds, so 46 apartments total. Does the developer not list all of the unsold apartments to make it seem more popular? If so, that's a shame because I would like to see some more layouts in my price range before hauling out there in person (as the building is being built there is really no advantage to seeing the sales office versus the website, at least to me).

jasper - just wait till the building is done in 2010, when you'll be able to go floor to floor, apartment to apartment to check out the views. It will be one, quite large, open house.

jasper - Yes, they hold back many of the units. The advantage of visiting the sales office is that you can see models of the kitchen and the bathrooms. You can also see screen shots meant to simulate the views from different units.

They hold back units, to artificially keep inventory numbers low, so you pay more thinking that "this is your last time to buy". Just wait. Buying today is more then risky, however buying new construction has never been more dangerous. The risk of the project going bankrupt before completion is very high.

Do you guys think Fall '09 completion is possible?

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/08/26/construction_watch_edge_getting_big_sharp.php

no. at least winter 2009.

i think it will be fine. however, it is too much to ask $1.265 Million for a 4th floor apt even if it is facing the water in my opinion.

I think that it may not be a bad idea to wait until there is an extension of the conforming jumbo loan limit (it is set to decrease from 729,725 to 625,000 on January 1) before locking in on an apt above 850k unless you are puttinmg a lot down because high interest rates really make a huge difference in terms of the price you pay for buying and, in addition, make it more or less affordable to buy at all. In most cases people pay .5 to 1% high interest rates for non-conforming loans. Does anyone else have thoughts on this?

Purchasing new development today, in a building without a C of O. Where you can't verify the final product (check the contract for language which states what variances are considered tolerable) is a huge risk. In this market I would think that the risk is high for anything not in move-in condition and that projects being built will either need to hurry up and finish or price in a significant discount to completed units.

Today more than ever the buyers, who are for the first time in 10 years, cash buyers and not credit bubble buyers, will dictate the real estate market and it's terms.

I think I understand that fairly well since I purchased precompletion before. I am willing to take th risk and am a lawyer and read through real estate cotracts carefully prior to accepting them. That said, I obviously would put in a bid, if any, taking that risk into consideration.

It seems as though they may just be releasing units that were signed up a while ago to give indications that what they are offering is reasonable per square foot even in the current economic climate but I don't buy it...anyone else have any thoughts?

Don't buy or you will learn, in a year, that your neighbor paid half what you paid and got a better view.

I highly doubt there willl be over a 50% drop in the year dco. stop creaming the sky is falling. it is getting old.

dco! One of these days you will stop being so negative, I hope.

these things will be down AT LEAST 75-80% (Prime Manhattan will be down 70% what do you think will happen to Brooklyn???) by the time this is all over. If you buy now you will LOSE A TON OF MONEY!!!! Buyers - get it through your head people.....this is NOT the time to buy. If you buy now you will lose your ENTIRE DOWN PAYMENT . Sellers GET OUT WHILE/IF YOU CAN......

This is not that complicated, at least not as complicated as most are making it out to be. You now need at least 20% over every purchase in Manhattan. You now need 30% if you are self-employed. And you will now be more vetted than Sarah Palin by Katie Couric by your mortgage company. This now means that the buyer pool is significantly less. Now factor in that 30% of Manhattan works in Financial Services and another 10% are somehow connected to the industry. Translation, even LESS potential buyer. Now most Manhattan buyer are most likely stock holders or somehow has assets related to the market. Translation, less buyers. Real estate will, and is falling in Manhattan, but will it bust, no way, we are still on an island. Common sense and simple math say it will fall about 30% across the board over the next 40-60 days. I do not think that those that bought since from 2004-present will see a return on investment, but I do feel (using the above equations) that Manhattan real-estate will drop to 2002-2003 levels. Some agents will continue to ask for unrealistic numbers, but that is why it is an "asking" price. Buyers not be scared off by the ask and should make offers at NO LESS than a 30% discount. If you are a buyer, and you waited, this is your time. If you just bought, well, it is sort of like just paying rent. Good luck to all.

As recently as August, the developer, Douglaston, refused to negotiate on the asking prices, and dismissed out of hand the possibility of their covering a dime of closing costs. I look forward to hearing from others when Douglaston finally cracks . . .

Even if Douglaston starts slicing prices significantly, who would risk putting down a 10% deposit, in the midst of a major financial crisis, on a development slotted for completion over a year from now? Banks won't offer you a mortgage if fewer than 50% of the units are sold, and if mortgages can't be had there's a real possibility that the development will go under. If you like the development (and I do), there is no rational alternative to waiting for the smoke to clear in 2009 . . .

I'm surprised I haven't read anyone saying this, so allow me:

While the Edge has amazing finishings & views, it's so out of place for cute little Williamsburg. Boutique buildings like NV, 125 North 10th, NForth ... they might be expensive and uncommonly "luxury" for the area, but they don't completely ruin the villagy feel of the neighborhood.

But the Edge, I'm sorry, it's just too big. It'll be a skyscraper slicing through the rest of the city's view. Couldn't they have stuck that thing over in Long Island City? At least there there's no neighborhood to destroy.

The sky is not falling but the Edge asking price sure will be. They will have to do a major price readjust just to keep up with the tanking market. Give it a week or two and all of these new developments will be trying to out do each other with the super cheap markdown.

goingdown are you really eddie wilson...you.seem.so.negative.

My guess is that prices at Edge are inflated because the Edge is in a unique spot with great interior finishes. the layouts are not great, however, and only certain apts will have unobstructed views. This combined with the market going down a little --to reflect the couple companies that laid off 1000s--means that prices will come down 10-15% in the next year, except in the most desirable units, which I think may be flat top 10% down. going 12 months to 18 months out, when thjey get to actually finishing the building, I expect them to have to rent to own apts with no views or completely obstructed views and take another 10%-15% off any remaining inventory.

just my opinion based on good unique location and top of the line interiors versus market pressures and desire for developer closer to completion (ie i estimate 15-18 months) to sell remaining inventory.

Its not going to go down substantially anytime soon because it is too far from completion.

Edge is one of the most overrated condos in the history of NYC. williamsburg is still a DUMP. it looks more like post-2003 Baghdad, than a civilized place.

rufus, you're clearly a troll here, as others have pointed out. Not sure what your beef is with Williamsburg, but you've clearly haven't been there in, oh, the past 2 or 3 decades.

bjw2103, i've been to williamsburg plenty of times. there are a few nice restaurants there, but aside from that, the place is an ugly toxic dump. do you honestly think it's an attractive neighborhood? also, i'm not an artist or hipster, so it's not the right place for me.

rufus, it's not the West Village, no doubt, but calling it an "ugly toxic dump" is way off base. I really like the look and feel of a big chunk of the northside. If you walk up and down Berry or Bedford between North 8th and North 10th, those are rows of beautiful townhouses. It's also short-sighted to view it as a place that's only for artists or hipsters. Maybe in 2000, but things have changed considerably since.

At this point, what are the odds that stage 3 gets built in the next couple of years?

bjw2103, although i am slightly exaggerating, everyone i know who lives in williamsburg are artists or hipsters. let me put it this way. a successful lawyer or finance professional would NOT live there.

rufus, "a successful lawyer or finance professional" will be moving to D.C. by the start of the next presidential administration

80sMan, you're actually right. wealth and power are leaving NYC in droves for other cities, whether it's DC, los angeles, houston, san francisco, london, hong kong, or dubai.

rufus, in my building (yes, in WB) alone, there are lawyers AND finance professionals. And healthcare professionals for good measure.

i guess these finance "professionals" are analysts straight out of a state college who can't afford to live anywhere else.

Or just someone who's worked for many years at top firms and bought a $1.4 million penthouse apartment. Either one.

why would any sane person spend $1.5 million to live in williamsburg?

Maybe it's possible some people have tastes that differ from yours. I know, I know - it's unlikely. But there's still a chance.