Toll Brothers Down Graded To JUNK

How dare Toll Brothers use California in the same sentence as MANHATTAN.

please stop embarrassing yourself

Wow, a home builder's rating drops during a national housing slump. dco you really uncovered something here.
5SL has already started closings and have sold over 80% of the building. LIC new buildings are still selling strongly. As much as dco wishes prices will come down to levels he can afford, it will never, ever happen.

Wow ! I am still apprehensive about the > $800 psft costs of buying at 5SL. They have 17 (as the sales agent claimed when I visited the place a few weeks ago) units still available and mostly in the main bldg on 48th. The apts. seemed nice with good finishes and main bldg. is on the main strip and perhaps the best location of LIC, a short walk from the subway and stone's throw from the waterfront.
What really bothers me though are the two bldgs that 5Sl is bounded by on both sides. Both abandoned and ready to come down. They are both spoken for claimed the agent, but declined to elaborate. Personally I can't imagine owning million dollar units in the lines that share common walls with these bldgs when they undergo reconstruction. Oh dear.
LICComment - I know that there was a huge demand initially in LIC and the location with its proximity to mid-town holds promise, but sales may have stalled presently mate - there are 15 or so units unsold at the Foundry. Not sure what the story is about Powerhouse. I did not get a good feeling when I visited. Just my opinion though.

cheers,

Who said anything about 5SL. And now that you are bragging about the 80% sold, ask yourself how long ago were the contracts signed. Oh that's right 2 years ago. Give me a break.

I guess I got my answer on how you guys/gal would spin this JUNK. I'm not surprised. Keep your heads in the sand it will all be over in 5-7 years.

dco, you are ridiculous. You continue to embarrass yourself with these silly posts.

so, Toll Brothers is downgraded to junk.

My cholesterol was up on my recent doctor visit. Panic!

I would be concerned if I was a buyer at Northside Piers with two towers and some parkland left to build and a pier to finish.

JM- What is ridiculous is the fact that you and your little crew can't accept the facts when they are presented in writing. Yes this is a big deal, whether you think so or not. It basically means that Toll Brothers will be paying more for loans and will make it almost impossible to raise money in the future. This will put any project planned or in the process in jeopardy of failure. Perhaps you don't think this is a big deal and that's fine, because it is clear that no matter what the facts, you and your crew are just ignorant.

People who are in the process of buying with Toll Brothers should be very concerned. The truth is that any new development ( not just Toll )at this point could falter given this credit debacle and Toll is proof as one of the biggest home builders that anyone of these developers could go bankrupt tomorrow. If you think that's impossible tell it to the employees at Bear.

NEWS FLASH- This is what we, who follow economic patterns call a clear sign of further impending trouble. For the last 18 months Toll had survived on its urban developments as it's single family business was dieing a slow death. Now it's clear that the Manhattan market is faltering as well causing Toll to be on the brink of bankruptcy.

Now think logically (I know this is very difficult for some). If Toll who was worth billions just 6-8 months ago is now rated as JUNK and is on the verge of bankruptcy. How safe are ALL the other smaller developers throughout this city. What happens when their projects slow and they can't show the banks that they sold X units. Or that the project goes over budget and new funds are needed. I'll tell you what happens the Bank says "We regret to inform you, given the rapid change in the market, our decision to finance the continuation of your project is no longer in the best interest of the bank at this time". Buying New construction is always a gamble and we are going to see just how much in the next 12 months.

sweet. I have a crew.

JM- Oh you have a crew. Your boat is taking on water and you and the "crew" can't keep the vessel from sinking.

That is sweet.

dco, I guess you just can't help it, you're just one of those people. I believe the phrase is cornuto content. Watch goodfellas, you'll understand.

Its hard to imagine anyone knowing less about what they're talking about.

You are amusing though. This might be my favorite from this rant: "This is what we, who follow economic patterns"

I bet you're very well known in that community, lol. Do you know anyone who makes $250k yet? Maybe your parents do, why don't you ask your mom, she must have lunch ready soon.

Gotta go back to patching up my vessel now.

ccdevi- That's it. I guess if you have nothing to say about the significance of the Toll down grade. You see you have developed a pattern yourself. Every-time someone posts information that contradicts your view and you have no way to debate the point you resort back to insults. It's actually a very common response. Translated it means that you have no rebuttal (because you actually agree with the information, however don't appreciate the messenger) and try to masquerade your response by just insulting the messenger. However most people can see right through this behavior.

"Its hard to imagine anyone knowing less about what they're talking about".
Really that's funny because everything that I have said in the last 7 months has come true or is in the process. All you ever say when something happens is "who didn't know that". Well I'll start with you. You have no clue about the path that this downturn has taken and offer zero insight into where it will go.

dco, welcome to America, we speak English here. dieing?

ootin- So after reading my posts about the significance of Toll being down graded to Junk and people that have signed contracts with them should be worried. That's your response. Well I'll take that as a compliment. I see you bring a lot to the table. Good luck with your new condo.

NEWS ALERT!!!

Homebuilders are struggling any many will go bankrupt! This is a surprise to everyone but dco because he has predicted a down economy. dco you are friggan brilliant, how do you do it?

so sad per usual dco. this information does not contradict my view, so no rebuttal is necessary.

JM, has it right of course. I have a client who's timber related company went bankrupt months ago because the construction industry was dead. But thank goodness we have the great dco to post these articles for us or else none of us would know there's an issue. But if only you'd post them without comment, but no you insist on showing us that you don't even understand the subject matter of the very articles you post.

Against my better judgment I'm going to give you some very basic info.

Having junk debt does not in and of itself put a company "on the brink of bankruptcy," as you seem to think. Many companies have junk rated debt, it used to common practice for large buyouts to get done on the back of junk debt.

Toll being at junk means very little for "what the little developers are feeling." No doubt some developers large and small are having a hard time, I mean we are in a recession and a very down real estate market after all. But of course it depends on the developer and the project.

You don't understand new construction (but really how could you, you're 15). Deposits are put into escrows, typically with large banks. The developer going broke does not mean you will lose your deposit. If the developer doesn't deliver the apt, you don't have to close. Depending on what your contract says after some period of time, you can rescind and get your deposit back.

Gotta go.

"Having junk debt does not in and of itself put a company "on the brink of bankruptcy," as you seem to think. Many companies have junk rated debt, it used to common practice for large buyouts to get done on the back of junk debt."

This is an excellent point ccdevi. dco, who do you think is buying this distressed debt and where do you think these "people" are located? If payment stops on this debt, what do you think it is converted to (in most cases)? After conversion, what do the new owners do with the company? Who is helping these new owners through this process? Where are those people located?

JM- I finally figured it out. You and your crew really can't see it. The whole time I thought that "the crew" were just protecting their own interests.

You guys/gals can't read between the lines. It's clear that you read the articles and posts but you can't seem to grasp the underlining message. WOW. I'm actually mad at myself for not realizing this before. I'm sorry for all the hurt full things that I have said. It really is not your fault. Holy Cow- You guys/gals can't read between the line, in particular statements made by companies. You just accept their words in print and move on as if it's gospel. You guys/gals are 100% right in your beliefs based on news releases that you have interpreted. Where you have gone wrong is figuring out the real meaning of the statements. I'm beside myself and I'm actually mad that it took me this long to figure the problem out. I'm sorry.

good post dco, you are so smart. don't be so hard on yourself though.

hey I think thats your mom calling you for bed.

ccdevi- Actually it's my wife and its an early call. Good night and enjoy the cold lonely couch since you lost the family savings.

lol. You not only don't know what you're talking about but you also have no idea who you're talking to. You've made it clear many times that you don't know anyone with any real money and have no concept of it. Thus I guess you assume everyone is in your situation, struggling to get by in this expensive city.

Even if I had "lost" a dime, presumably you'd understand that it would be on paper. But I guess not. That said, all I've done to this point is make a lot of money on real estate (I sold my last place in July 07, talk about good timing). That may change in the future, it may not.

DCO thank you for your rent check this month. I used part of it to pay the mortgage on your apartment the rest went to massages with happy endings in chinatown. I am not worried that I blew this months check because next month you will be again sending me 50% of your take home.

Thanks!

ccdevi- That great. Did you bank the profit or roll it over to another property?

I am in contract to buy a new place which I intend to live in for the foreseeable future.

Are you renting now? Is your new purchase a new development? If so when did you enter contract? Just trying to see where you are coming from.

I am renting now, have been since July 07. Yes high end new dev, went to contract in Jan of 07. Have no concerns as to the price I paid, which is significantly below even today's market. Maybe the market loses 25%+ and I get back to even or in the hole. Who cares, thats on paper, I'll live there for years unless I'm fortunate enough to be able to trade up...and btw my housing costs will be something like 15% of my gross income. So now you know where I'm coming from. As I've said again and again, its not the message. Its the delivery.

ccdevi- Good for you and I sincerely hope you enjoy your new place.

Your_Landlord- Even with all your money, you still need to pay for happy endings. I'm scared to see what you look like.