Signs that its going to get worse...

NYRENewbie, watch out when posting this kind of "gloom and doom" information.

You run the risk of getting reprimanded for being, how should I put it... superfluous and redundant?

In the end, this is a free forum and as such, post away!

Sorry, just saw this and thought it might be relevant. Everyone knows that I don't know anything. But I'm on vacation in Bali and it was on the front page!

Yes, NYRENewbie, thanks for posting from the International Herald Tribune. We in NYC are so insulated from the rest of the world, all of our news sources here aren't any good so we need IHT.

Yikes, don't shoot the messenger! MMAfia, you are right, I have learned my lesson. No more bad news. OK, I think I've got it.

TwoFacedLiar - you sir are an idiot. The International Herald Tribune is part of the New York Times family and indeed beyond having its own reporters - gets a large part of its materials from the Times.

october,

I think TwoFacedLiar was being facetious. NYC is the media capital of the world. As you said, we have the NYT and Wall Street Journal plus CNBC informing us daily. I wake up to Joe Kernen, Becky Quick and Carl Q. every morning. Did you or anyone else learn anything new from the post?

october,

I think TwoFacedLiar was being facetious. NYC is the media capital of the world. As you said, we have the NYT and Wall Street Journal plus CNBC informing us daily. I wake up to Joe Kernen, Becky Quick and Carl Q. every morning. Did you or anyone else learn anything new from the post?

Doesn't matter, October called me Sir. Which does reflect our respective positions.

TwoFacedLiar - Yes, I called you sir . . . you are probably much older than I am.
Junkman - Actually the article was interesting as it shows: (1) the Fed is going to keep open its lending facility (picking moral hazard and probably prolonging the agony); (2) getting mortgages is going to be even harder for certain buyers; and (3) 2009 might not be the year of recovery that everyone had been hoping for. It is rather worrisome. In terms of New York real estate - I think the big question is whether we are going to be flat for a year or two (the bulls' new fall back position), or if prices might come down in a noticeable way (the bears' view).

October, you raise a good question. We are in for a rough ride on the economy, probably through early 2010. I actually think that it will be more of an extended roller coaster ride rather than a slump. I think given yesterday's events with a small surge in the stock market, there is hunger for good news, and the next bit of good news will be passage and enactment of a major Housing bill. That should create a short term uptick. I think general economic trends will continue to go downward through the fall -- mainly based on rising unemployment data and low consumer confidence.

I actually think the biggest, though most temporary breaktrhough, will be the election of a new President, whether it is Obama or McCain, though I think Obama's message of real change will lift spirts, attititudes and consumer confidence. This will create new momentum for positive growth in 2009, but will not fully overcome some of the inherent problems we face in the economy. Oil and the price of energy and commodities will continue to spur inflation. President Obama will call for an energy revolution that emphasizes renewable resouces (solar, wind) but also is heavily geared to ethenol and nuclear development. This will help but it will be a few years before it really makes much of a dent in energy pricing.

Regarding Manhattan RE, I think we'll see general flatnesss in the medium term, and things kind of hold their own until 2010. All real estate is local, and this is especially true on our 23 square miles. There might be some rising prices, some falling prices. So the bulls and bears are both right, to an extent.

To join in the prognosticatory commentary, my prediction is that S&P 500 will drop another 30-40%, and Manhattan RE will drop another 10-20% over the next 12 months. I don't see how we will have 'general flatness', although I agree 2010 will mark beginnings of recovery.

NYRENewbie- I guess you didn't get the memo from the "crew". It's very long and boring, so I will give you the short version. Under no circumstance are you or any other you are affiliated with, are allowed to re-post negative articles. We as members of the NYC RE Marketing Machine spends millions of dollars a year trying to convince the dumb people of this city that RE in and around Manhattan only increases. Any effort to post such negative article would be in direct conflict with our mission to fatten our pocket on the back of unsuspecting buyers. We expect your full cooperation. Thank You and remember BUY, BUY, BUY........... It doesn't matter what, it's all good.

"I think the big question is whether we are going to be flat for a year or two (the bulls' new fall back position)"

october, the beauty of this site is that history has been recorded. I am on record over 9 months ago stating a flat to slow growth prediction for Manhattan real estate. The other "bulls" malraux, spunky, will, and others are on record with similar predictions (spunky more bullish for GV, Soho, and Tribeca). Have a read, you may learn something.

NYRENewbie, take the criticism in stride, it is part of streeteasy initiation. It is good having you around.

JuiceMan - thanks I've been learning a lot and I've seen the threads. You're right - some of the bulls have been talking about a "breather" for a while (but of course this was only AFTER the beginning of the credit crunch). If you also look back - you will note that I have not been predicting doom and gloom (although I'm getting more worried), and that I was planning on buying next year (after my lease expires).

These are the same bulls who claimed that there would be no slowdown at all... maybe its time you stopped listening to them.

In just a few posts I can see that Eddie really likes to make things up. I've been following the streeteasy threads for over 6 months and I don't recall seeing anyone who regularly posts claim that there would be no slowdown.

> In just a few posts I can see that Eddie really likes to make things up. I've been following the
> streeteasy threads for over 6 months and I don't recall seeing anyone who regularly posts claim that
> there would be no slowdown.

Genius, thats because the slowdown has been official for about that long. We are officially one YEAR into the subprime crisis. Go further back, genius.

I may not be a genius, but I sure am not a liar. Go back and link to a post where any of the regular commenters said there would be no slowdown.

Juiceman you left out the West Village as well. I do beleive when you take YOY on these areas price appreciation will be in double digits. However due to lag time from closing to contract that can be misleading. I will go out on a limb and state that the Condo sale prices for the West Village, Tribeca, GV and Soho in 2009 will show appreciation compared to that of 2008. Time will tell.

LICC: "but I sure am not a liar."

Yup.

spunky: "I do beleive when you take YOY on these areas price appreciation will be in double digits."

Yup.

> I may not be a genius, but I sure am not a liar.

Really? Ironic...

> Go back and link to a post where any of the regular commenters said
> there would be no slowdown.

Spunky 8 months ago: "Keeping wishing everyone. Since you can't afford to buy at these prices and you're pissed off about it the best thing to do is voice your complaints on this board and post articles predicting a drop in prices.Wah Wah Wah cry me a river. Now get your dam rent checks in because it's 3 days past due"

Now sit down and shut up.

here are some more gems... from 10 months ago:

"Read today's NYT article. You're not going to see significant price declines with inventory -- especially one-bedroom co-op inventory -- as low as it is. And with rents continuing to rise, buyer demand is not going to go away either... I'm afraid the bitter renters are going to stay bitter."

"I just don't buy all of the doom-and-gloom politics. C'mon guys, it's the Manhattan market. It's not Ohio, South Florida, or Phoenix. Get a grip, a 50% drop here would be 100% in those areas. So some of Wall Street won't get bonuses this year, big whoop! Many people who haven't bought yet will start to find out that although there is (at worst) a stagnation in sales, it won't last. There's too much money in this city with many people in various industries unaffected by this sub-prime, credit mess. Why did a condo just sell in my building for 5% above asking? No foreclosures will occur in the NYC area and people are always moving here."

Is that the best you can do Eddie? That was pretty lame. You still didn't post anything from the regular commenters that said "I don't believe there will be any slowdown in NYC" or something similar. You should try to keep your angry bitterness to yourself . . .

"Wall Street going sour? Most banks have grown by 20% or more this quarter. How is that sour?"

---------

"Nonsense 1: Missing earnings. Most of the S&P are beating estimates thus the market is at an all time high. So what if Google missed.

Nonsense 2: Fed will raise. Its projected the Fed will stay put throughtout 08. Even if not due to the sinking dollar, who cares? Mortgage rates follow the 10 year bond which fell under 5% today.

We can go on and on here....."

Here's an entire thread dedicated to the subject:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2651-where-are-all-the-idiots-who-made-the-2007-doomsday-predictions

This is so easy!

JuiceMan
about 3 months ago
stop ignoring this person
report abuse

"After seven months shopping the market, you probably have a good idea what the property is worth. "

iMom, that is a key statement in the answer to this question. Recommending a 15% below ask offer without knowing what the property is worth based on some article you read in the daily news about Montclair NJ is well, irresponsible. Also, I understand the newspapers and CNN are babbling on about being in a recession, bad economy, etc. but we have seen little impact to this point with Manhattan real estate.

For those interested, I’ve been in Tampa and Miami over the past week. My buddy is renting a $750k (original list) brand new apartment with high end finishes, pool, and water views for $1500 a month. He doesn’t even live there, he uses it for poker tournaments. The building has 150+ units and 7 are occupied. There are two more condo buildings being built just like this one within walking distance.

Miami is a nightmare. The skyline looks like Shanghai, cranes everywhere with numerous 1000+ unit high rise condos being built right next to each other. These places are empty, bankrupt, and a couple huge projects are not even finished yet. People are getting offers for 50% below ask and they are being accepted. Miami has years to go to get through this inventory.

Seeing this makes me even more bullish on Manhattan real estate.

EddieWilson- Please no cursing. It just cheapens the message. Thanks

I agree dco, it shows you the kind of person Eddie is. JuiceMan's comment on Miami was interesting, thanks steve, but I'm still waiting for an old comment within the last 9 months that says the NYC market will not experience any slowdown.

Another embarrassing thread for the housingheads, tanning salon aficionados and Lexus leasers.

> I agree dco, it shows you the kind of person Eddie is.

Yes, ACCURATE.
;-)

Point taken, dco... but, it is really funny to see all this backpedalling. Its not like folks weren't warned...

LICC: "thanks steve, but I'm still waiting for an old comment within the last 9 months that says the NYC market will not experience any slowdown."

JuiceMan
about 3 months ago
Seeing this makes me even more bullish on Manhattan real estate.

As steve already pointed out on the other thread, there is an ENTIRE THREAD devoted to this:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2651-where-are-all-the-idiots-who-made-the-2007-doomsday-predictions?page=15

The "predictions" are freakishly eerie. The dude thought "dow at 11,000" was some far off fairy tale!!!

"Seeing this makes me even more bullish on Manhattan real estate. "

steve, I stand by what I said (in context) 100%. When comparing Miami to Manhattan, I am extremely bullish on Manhattan.

JuiceMan- "steve, I stand by what I said (in context) 100%. When comparing Miami to Manhattan, I am extremely bullish on Manhattan"

There are many things that people have said in the past. I lost count of all mine. Don't get so offened it doesn't make you a bad or "stupid" person.

JM: "Seeing this makes me even more bullish on Manhattan real estate. steve, I stand by what I said (in context) 100%. When comparing Miami to Manhattan, I am extremely bullish on Manhattan."

Yup. I believe that, Juicy.

"Extremely bullish" = decline of 40% instead of 60%.

Yup.

Juice, they just keep spinning their wheels around and around, with nothing substantive backing their assertions.

"with nothing substantive backing their assertions."

It seems like anything you disagree with has no substance.

JM: "even more bullish on Manhattan real estate"

within or without the Miami context, "even more" are the operative words. Clearly, to be "even more" bullish, one must start out quite bullish, else it makes no sense.

"Clearly, to be "even more" bullish, one must start out quite bullish, else it makes no sense."

steve, you are stretching. It is no secret that I am long term bullish Manhattan RE and no secret that I have been realistic about a downturn (but I'm still a bull because I don't believe in a 50% correction). What was asked above was if one of you rock stars could provide a post from someone that said "Manhattan prices will never decrease", or anything of that flavor. If this is the best you can do, I think the point has been proved.

Can someone send a shitload of spam to daisy's email address?

Classic msg board comment "Can someone send a shitload of spam to daisy's email address?" hahahaah

> What was asked above was if one of you rock stars could provide a post from someone that
> said "Manhattan prices will never decrease", or anything of that flavor.

Yes, an entire 170 post thread on it was provided. LIC, as suggested, sat down and shut up.

> I think the point has been proved.

Its proveN.. and, yes, I think it absolutely has...

But, the ironic point about it all is, the bulls aren't even TRYING to claim that the market is anything but fucked now... they're just resorting to arguing about how they weren't bullish in the first place. Now THAT is what I call capitulation.

Yes, this market is smokin'.

"but I'm still a bull because I don't believe in a 50% correction"

S T R E T C H.

"rock stars" = "he works on Obama's election campaign."

Credibility....

-1

Eddie, I don't have to say much, all I have to do is let you talk and everyone can see how moronic your comments are. I'm still waiting for that post that says Manhattan real estate will never decrease . . .

Once more time, genius, there is a thread with 1500 posts we pointed at.

> can see how moronic your comments are.

You seem to be confusing the term "moronic" with ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. You can try and insult all you want, but you're the clear moron here.

So sorry you got burned, but you were wrong. The crash has begun.

I bought in 1998 Eddie and have near zero debt on my property at this point. Boy, I really got burned. Now let me explain this so a 5-year old can understand, and maybe then you'll get it. Linking to another thread does not constitute directly quoting a comment where someone says "Manhattan prices will never decrease." You sure are dense and crude, you probably don't have many friends, do you?

> I bought in 1998 Eddie and have near zero debt on my property at this point.
> Boy, I really got burned.

You did, you completely missed your opportunity to cash in, and take advantage of the tax free capital gain. And now you're losing it.

> Linking to another thread does not constitute directly quoting a comment where someone
> says "Manhattan prices will never decrease."

Yes, its 50 times better, because there are a good 50 of those on there.

I apparently can't explain that to a 5 year old like you, because that would require literacy.

Seldom right and wrong again Eddie. I have sold and bought again twice since 1998, took the tax-free gains and rolled them into the new properties, and reduced my mortgage amount. How much rent have you paid since then, with absolutely nothing to show for it now?

Of those 50 comments, you have found . . . zero that you can point to. Just keep talking and showing everyone how stupid you are . . .

LICComment- "Just keep talking and showing everyone how stupid you are . . ."

Everyone is stupid to you. Just maybe it's you that is mentally challenged.

> How much rent have you paid since then, with absolutely nothing to show for it now?

Actually, not much, had a stabilized one bedroom in prime manhattan for under $500 for most of it.

With the proceeds left over, I made a KILLING just putting it into the market. Hell, and index fund with that kind of savings would have kept me way further ahead than any of you...

> with absolutely nothing to show for it now?

Wow, pot calling the kettle black. You're the idiot here with the incorrect info.

I'm rich. You're living in your only asset, and its declining daily... AND YOU OWE MONEY ON IT.

You are leveraged in a declining asset, and you're giving OTHER folks investment advice?

"Actually, not much, had a stabilized one bedroom in prime manhattan for under $500 for most of it."

Reason #18 we need to repeal the rent stablization laws.

Actually the apartment directly below mine just sold for more money than I paid. You lived in a rent-stabilized apartment (which for some reason you gave up and are now in Brooklyn) - this makes it more obvious that you know nothing about buying and selling real estate.

> Actually the apartment directly below mine just sold for more money than I paid.

Then, once again, I say you're an idiot for holding it as we're going into a crash.

> You lived in a rent-stabilized apartment (which for some reason you gave up and are now in
> Brooklyn) - this makes it more obvious that you know nothing about buying and selling real estate.

Yes, because noone who has ever lived in a rent stabilized place has ever bought or sold real estate.

You are as dumb as you sound.

Eddie, there is no crash. Manhattan real estate is not crashable. It may decline in certain less prime areas, and possibly in those less prime areas by up to 20%. But prime areas will continue to do well.

> Eddie, there is no crash. Manhattan real estate is not crashable. It may decline in certain less
> prime areas, and possibly in those less prime areas by up to 20%. But prime areas will continue to
> do well.

ROTFL. Dude, I'm writing that one down.

We'll have a fantastic hillarious quotes list to go over in a few years...